FanPost

Sheehan on Hamilton and the MVP / Carroll comment

Doesn't think that he's a prime contender, and I tend to agree. Kinsler looks like a pretty good candidate via this method, though:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7960

On Sunday afternoon in Oakland, Carlos Quentin roped his MLB-leading 34th home run to help the White Sox to a 13-1 win over the A’s. Because he leads the league in homers, is high on the RBI list, plays for a division leader, and has something of a narrative attached to his name, Quentin is a popular choice for the AL MVP award. In a season in which no AL player has stood above all the rest, but many are having good seasons, Quentin’s case seems as valid as anyone’s. You could say much the same, only better, about Josh Hamilton, who despite a sluggish second half has the kind of stats and story the BBWAA loves.

Let’s run at this from a different angle, though, one that focuses more on performance than anything else. Here are the reasonable candidates for the award, and their stat lines through Sunday :


                 PA   AVG  OBP  SLG  VORP  Rk*  WARP1  Rk*
Milton Bradley  399  .317 .442 .584  47.3   4     5.3
Jermaine Dye    488  .300 .355 .572  38.0  15     5.6   9
Josh Hamilton   545  .304 .369 .549  47.2   5     4.9
Ian Kinsler     583  .319 .375 .517  56.1   1     6.4   1
Joe Mauer       465  .321 .414 .451  39.9  13     6.3   2
Carlos Quentin  514  .292 .395 .582  47.0   8     5.5
Alex Rodriguez  450  .313 .402 .598  54.8   2     5.8   6
Grady Sizemore  561  .266 .380 .514  51.5   3     5.5  10
Kevin Youkilis  485  .320 .388 .577  47.1   7     5.8   7
*among position players, for those in top ten in WARP

                         IP    ERA  VORP  Rk*  WARP1  Rk*
Cliff Lee             170.2   2.43  59.4   1    8.6    1
Roy Halladay          191.0   2.64  56.4   2    7.7    2
Francisco Rodriguez    51.1   2.81  13.8  60    5.1
*among pitchers, for those in top ten in WARP

 

EDIT: and this note from Will Carroll's column:

Maybe Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers' new pitching coach. Brandon McCarthy has thrown 13 scoreless innings since talking with Ryan about his mechanics, and will be back in the Texas rotation next week.

 

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