Texas Rangers market size
by bigsteve on Aug 21, 2008 4:08 PM CDT
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PrintWhat are we? Does being in the DFW area make us a large market club? With the recent discussion about FA pitching and who we should and shouldn't go after this winter and the size of our payroll it got me wondering.
I think we are a mid level club who thinks they are a large market club. Our location means we should be a large market in the same tier as New York, Boston, LA and Chicago. Which is why in the winter we seem to have our name attached to the top names on the market. But we always seem to come up short. We as fans get upset but should we be? I don't think we should.
I believe we should be targeting the mid level guys. We should be the biggest of that level and should get those guys. Go back two winters. There was a good amount of pitchers available. At the top of the list was Zito and Dice-K with Padilla (coming off his 15 win season) as the tail end of the top group of FA pitchers. Then the second tier of guys included Lilly, Meche, and Suppan. We went hard after Zito and made an aggressive bid for Dice-K but came up empty handed and had to resort to Padilla. hes been good but what it also did was pretty much take us out of the market for those mid level guys.
Now look at this winter upcoming. With CC and Sheets arguably being the top of the heap with AJ Burnett as the tail end of the top group. The 2nd tier of pitchers includes guys like Oliver Perez, Jon Garland and Derek Lowe.
As Hindmans blog entry yesterday showed those high priced guys don't always end up giving the best results. Yet because we are in the DFW area most fans expect us to go after the top talent. I believe we should drop the notion that we are a large market club and settle in our minds as the biggest mid level franchise there is and use that to acquire talent based on that premise. With our offense we don't necessarily need shut down, ERA leading pitchers to be a winning ballclub. But we do need consistency and guys who we can depend on. Ive advocated signing Jon Garland for a long time. I think he would be the perfect fit in this rotation. he would slide into the 3rd or 4th slot and be asked to just go out every 5 days and give us the 6 or 7 innings he has his whole career. A 5 ERA will still be a 10 win pitcher most likely. We aren't Florida or tampa by any means but we also aren't the Cubs or Yankees. I don't think its a bad thing if we were just considered the biggest of the mid level teams.
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market size rankings
in terms of metro population (at least for tv/radio markets)
U.S. TV Household Estimates Designated
Market Area (DMA) — Ranked by Households
Rank
Designated Market Area (DMA)
TV Households
% of US
1 New York, NY 7,391,940 6.553
2 Los Angeles, CA 5,647,440 5.007
3 Chicago, IL 3,469,110 3.076
4 Philadelphia, PA 2,939,950 2.606
5 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 2,435,600 2.159
6 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA 2,419,440 2.145
7 Boston, MA (Manchester, NH) 2,393,960 2.122
8 Atlanta, GA 2,310,490 2.048
9 Washington, DC (Hagerstown, MD) 2,308,290 2.046
10 Houston, TX 2,050,550 1.818
11 Detroit, MI 1,925,460 1.707
12 Phoenix, AZ 1,802,550 1.598
13 Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), FL 1,783,910 1.582
14 Seattle-Tacoma, WA 1,782,040 1.580
15 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 1,706,740 1.513
16 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 1,536,020 1.362
17 Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH 1,533,710 1.360
18 Denver, CO 1,477,280 1.310
19 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL 1,434,050 1.271
20 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA 1,391,790 1.234
21 St. Louis, MO 1,244,370 1.103
22 Pittsburgh, PA 1,158,210 1.027
23 Portland, OR 1,150,320 1.020
24 Baltimore, MD 1,095,490 0.971
25 Charlotte, NC 1,085,640 0.962
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
DFW is a major market
that continues to grow and the economy is better here than in a lot of other places.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
I understand that
But instead of competing heads up against the New Yorks, Bostons, Chicagos, and LAs out there for free agents and coming up short. Why don’t we concentrate, right now at least, on going after that middle level of guys and be competing with the KCs and Seattles and such. Get those guys right now and get better and then when we start winning then we can go after the top top guys.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
i think the rangers
have tried to go after big guys and then they go after best avail after that. from what i have heard, the rangers have put up competitive offers to big free agents. hicks may open his wallet this year. we have to see.
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
There is no reason
as to why the Rangers shouldnt be a large market team. If you look at some of the other teams around here, you can see that Jerry is spending huge on trying to get a Super Bowl and Cuban’s Mavs are always are near the top of the list in payroll. Hell, even Hicks spends a fair amount on the Stars (Modano, Morrow, Zubov, Boucher, Guerin, and Avery come to mind). IMO, this all falls on Hicks shoulders. Maybe he is scared of signing the next Chan Ho, but at some point, he has to realize that he has the assets to get into a bidding war with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. Now whether you can actually get the person to sign here is another story, but he has to make an effort to at least try and get them. FWIW, this may be his problem with Liverpool as well with people complaining he’s not spending enough.
"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno
LSB facebook group ---->>> http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33345329288
salary caps
The NFL has a cap
The NHL has a cap
The NBA has a semi cap and Cuban is way over it but what has that got us the last couple years as big contracts are weighing us down
MLB has no cap. So yes while I think we should be up there with the yanks and Red Sox and the likes we also run the very big risk of not landing those players and at the same time losing out on the next tier of players or having to reach and way overpay someone. If we just concentrated on going after guys we knew we could get from day one right now we would be better off.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Agreed
But my point is that even with the cap, all three of these owners are getting big names in here or are giving out big contracts, while at the same time getting those on the second tier
Jones – TO, Romo, Davis….Kosier, Glenn
Cuban- Dirk, Kidd, Howard…Diop, George
Hicks (Stars)-Morrow, Guerin, Modano…Avery, Boucher
With the Rangers, he gets the second tier with guys like MB, Padilla and Milwood. The problem is he hasnt spent big on a top tier guy since Arod.
"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno
LSB facebook group ---->>> http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33345329288
Not a great basis for comparison
Jones- TO, many teams didnt want him and we essentially got him for a series of three one year deals, Romo, homegrown, Davis contract was blasted by many at the time and thought he was overpaid, Kosier, serioulsy? Glenn was traded for a 6th round draft pick and eventually given a decent but not huge contract
Cuban- Dirk, homegrown, Kidd traded for and will cripple the franchise for a long time, Howard, homegrown, Diop, overpaid, George, seriously, both the player and the two year 4 million he got. You could have brought up damp and his inflated contract
Hicks (doesnt he own the rangers too?)- Morrow, homegrown, Guerin, overpaid and gone within two years because of it, Modano, homegrown, Avery fits, boucher traded for robidas (who luckily was later brought back and improved his game vastly) and became an allstar afterwards. Ribiero fits into that category too.
My point is that while these owners did spend money, it was on its own players who became FOTF types or at the least all stars. Hicks has done or tried to do the same with the rangers with young, kinsler, tex (paid him in arbitration and agreed to a two year deal before tex turned him down longterm last year), blalock, padilla, and even spent big money on a FA after park in millwood. Jones is the only owner who went out and spent big money to bring in players and that is mostly due to creative cap management and the fact that the cowboys are the marquee team in football, much like the yankees are in baseball, the red wings in hockey, and the lakers in basketball and people always will want to play for them.
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
Large
DFW is actually the 4th largest metropolitan area in the U.S. and I would assume expanding at a larger rate than some of the others.
This is the Texas Rangers, professional destroyers of hope, we're talking about. - BAC
Population is not the measure
Revenue is. The Rangers have been in the middle in terms or Revenue for many years. You can’t say to Tom Hicks “spend more money because DFW has the 4th largest population!”
Let’s say somehow the Rangers win 3 or 4 division titles, a couple of pennants and a WS title in the next 10 years. Then the team might have a much stronger tv presence, higher attendance, and revenue ranking it’s population ranking. But the current status of the Rangers is a mid-market team, and that has nothing at all to do with Tom Hicks’ wallet.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
Philadelphia used to be near the bottom of revenue
when they had losing teams year in and year out.
It’s amazing how losing drops your revenue.
What's the secret to a long life? "I masturbate a lot"-Ernest Borgnine. http://www.bestweekever.tv/2008/08/14/icymi-ernest-borgnine-reveals-his-secret-for-everlasting-youth/#onepage
The Rangers have been
in the middle in MLB revenues because Tom Hicks has had his head up his ass in regards to marketing this team.
Look where the Cowboys were in 1989. Jones knew the Cowboys had a brand that could be exploited but you had to market it and you had to win.
Look where the Mavs were in the mid to late 90’s. Cuban took over and the Mavs became a top 5 revenue producer.
This area is crazy for baseball and if the Rangers got their shit together, they would easily be a top 5-10 revenue producer.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Marketing
the product is pretty tough to sell right now, but I think that you’re right about the potential for improvement if the team got good. I still doubt they would be a top 5 team in revenue for reasons of market combined with history. 2 NY teams, 2 Chicago teams, 2 LA teams, and then Boston and SF all have more history and most of those also have population. But the Rangers can and should be a top 10 market if they are fielding competitve teams.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
are you seriously comparing the Cowboys to the Rangers
I mean it makes sense for you to do that but im just wondering. The Cowboys were Americas team long before Jones bought them. They had a long and storied tradition. Jones has gone and expanded that but the rangers have nowhere near the history or tradition that the Cowboys had back then.
And Hicks tried the Cuban method by just pumping money into the thing when he signed Arod and CHP but that didn’t work either.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Agree
I stopped right here when reading this thread. Josey is 100% correct. The numerical size of the market is an indication of opportunity. To have a club in this media market be categorized as a low revenue team indicates that the people marketing and running the team are idiots.
+ 1
"Well you didn't tell me that you were a Rangers fan" the psychiatrist says to his patient. "That explains a lot!"
You could say you have to spend money to make money...
But not necessarily. You have to spend WISELY and market the team well. Then, however, you WILL make money.
My data is a little dated
but in 2004, DFW had the lowest cable penetration in the nation at 40% of all TV households (compared to 64% nationwide). While Directv and Dish have made giant inroads, the overall pay TV penetration is still lower than the national average, which means the Rangers’ local TV deals aren’t as rich as similar-sized “large” markets.
That, paired with general Metroplex apathy, leads to Rangers having the second worst TV ratings in all of baseball at about a 1.4 rating. It’s also worth noting that Nielsen just recently began including a representative number of satellite homes to its ratings measurements, which should provide a significant boost to Rangers ratings in the coming years.
So, realistically, while DFW is No. 5 in the list above — if there was a public list of local broadcast right fees, I would bet that the Ranges would be near the middle of the pack.
by robert_d_wilfong on Aug 21, 2008 5:22 PM CDT reply actions
i agree with getting Garland
he throws lots of strikes with the ability to save our bullpen and he has the crazy ability to STAY HEALTHY while have an average ERA. that is what we need
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
Galand career at RBiA
8 GS, 44.1 IP, 6.90 ERA, 62 H, 17 BB, 6 HR
by robert_d_wilfong on Aug 21, 2008 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions
beat me by less than a minute
well at least now you dont have to check out those stats
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
Look at Zitos numbers here and tell me if we should have signed him
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Baseball gods watching over us
But why potentially make the same mistake that we were saved from previously.
BTW — Great post. Intelligent baseball conversation is fun.
by robert_d_wilfong on Aug 21, 2008 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions
check out his era here
and other hitters ballparks. He is a fly ball pitcher who doesnt get strikeouts. In fact go check out his strikeout numbers this year and I bet you change your tune pretty quickly, especially considering the contract he wants and will undoubtedly get.
I'm sorry my parents never had me sarcamsized.
he can stay healthy and can pitch at least 5 innings. get him
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
barry zito had a good ERA here. so should we have got him??
pitchers era in certain ballparks is generally insignificant
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
Livan can stay healthy and pitch 5 innings
isn’t that what you wanted?
This season
Garland averages 1.158 hits per inning x 5 = 5.79 hits/5 innings
Hernandez averages 1.457 per inning x 5 = 7.28hits/5 innings
Garland walks 0.303 per inning x 5 = 1.52 walks / 5 inning
Hernandez walks 0.229 per inning x 5 = 1.145 walks/ 5 inning
How much extra are you willing to pay for that?
2 hits per 5 innings is a lot
but obviously ERA is what really matters, Garlands ERA over the last 2 years is about one run better than Hernandez’s over the last 2 years. i’d pay 4 million extra for that
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
Jon Garland has a lower ERA than Justin Verlander
and has similar ERA to Roy Oswalt and Josh Beckett
Is he better than Verlander and similar in ability to Oswalt and Beckett?
LMAO. NO.
their career ERAs are much better than garlands and Verlander not only has a better career ERA, he is only 25.
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
Career ERA?
Livan’s career ERA is 4.35
Garland’s career ERA is 4.33
So are they the same?
So you can't just look at ERA?
How many ERA points is one year worth? If a pitcher is 4 years older, how much lower of an ERA does he need to have in order to be considered equally valuable to a pitcher 4 years younger?
did you know its possible to answer a question without a question?
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
I do, but did you ask me a question?
No, I am not Hindman
okay
dont answer questions with questions. it makes you look like you dont know anything
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
What's wrong?
You made your position, I am asking you to defend it.
you put stupid things
like asking if i think roy oswalt and justin verlander are the same as livan hernandez. thats pretty stupid
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
I am trying to find out if you are consistent in your reasoning
First you said ERA is what you need to look at to determine which pitcher is better. I give you an example where ERA can be misleading, then you say that you need to look at career ERA, and I gave you another example. Then you say age makes a difference, and I ask you what kind of difference does it make and how to quantify it.
So what is it? Is ERA all you need? If Verlander’s ERA is so much higher this year, how can you say he is pitching better than Garland based on your criteria?
age matters
at certain point in your career you start to decline in performance. verlander is going to get better. livan hernandez is 33 and on the decline.
you have to use common sense. ERA is the main stat to use but it isnt the only thing. if you are asking me who i would rather have Garland or Hernandez? i would say Garland because first of all he has a much better ERA this year and Livan is on the decline while Garland is in his prime
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
Exactly, that's the point
You can’t just use ERA, what else do you have to look at? Age; strikeout rates; walk rates; ground ball/fly ball/line drive rates; homerun rates; what pitches a guy throws, etc. In fact, as a pure predictor of things, ERA is not very good. Say 80% of the time it’s correct, but it just tells you if one pitcher is better than another at some given time, but nothing else. Without looking at the “elses”, you won’t know whether you are the correct 80% or the incorrect 20%. For example, you intuitively know Verlander/Beckett are better pitchers because you know they have better stuff.
My original question on the comparison between Garland and Hernandez is aimed at this point. On the surface, Garland is a whole lot better (shiny ERA), but if you dig under the surface, he’s not good at all. He gives up a whole lot more line drives than average, gives up more home runs than average, and strike out people a lot less than average. He somewhat makes it up for this by walked a bit less than average and less fly balls. This doesn’t make him a good pitcher.
Livan sucked this year, especially in Colorado, but his twins numbers are actually comparable to Garland. He doesn’t strike anybody out, but he rarely ever walks people. His line drive percentage is also a lot lower than Garland’s. Overall, Garland is a better pitcher, and like you said, is more likely to maintain the performance. However, Garland is getting paid $12 million, and I don’t think he is looking for a pay cut next season. Livan on the other hand is paid $5 million right now, and certainly won’t get clearly that much next season (if he can get a job at all). How much better is Garland than Livan? Not all that much. In fact, a lot of pitcher who can pitch at the same level as Livan and can cost less than 1 million. You don’t pay $11 million for that find of marginal improvement.
i agree
one thing you left out is that this year Garland’s groundball is percentage is 48 % while livans is 43%. Garland is in the top 20. but the thing is that groundballs can be hit hard so im not sure how important the groundball percentage rate its…
but either way, Garland isnt worth 12 million. if we could sign him for 8 or 9 million, i’d do it
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
True
For league average, around 75% of ground balls are outs, 78% of fly balls hit to the outfield are outs, and 99% of infield fly balls are outs. In comparison, only 30% of line drives are outs. However, you can get a lot more extra base hits from fly balls and line drives that are not out than from ground balls, which is why ground balls are preferred and line drives are to be absolutely avoided. The higher ground ball rates of Garland is exactly the reason why he is better than Livan.
Sigh
“Intelligent baseball conversation is fun.”
Until the yahoos start to take over.
by robert_d_wilfong on Aug 21, 2008 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
we sure have a lot guys on our team who can stay healthy...
who needs pitchers???
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
True...
However, those stats in RBiA have also come against OUR offense. Maybe a reason why that ERA is through the roof. I think he would be a solid #4 or so, but probably not much more. Then again, he’s not any worse than anyone else on our staff at the moment, so why not?
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Aug 21, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions
It's Tom Hicks' money, not mine
if he wants to go after CC/Sheets, how can that be a bad thing? I don’t care if we’re big/medium/small market. Those are the kind of players that can help you win. Derek Lowe, Perez, Livan Hernandez, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings, Colon…. those are the kind of players you are advocating snapping up. This team needs a staff ace, not another collection of Millwood/Padillas or, God forbid, a Ho.
I’m kind of meh on Garland, but yes, you are right, he could probably go out and give you 4 ER over 6 or 7 innings more often than not and keep the team in the game.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
Sigh
go play in traffic.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 21, 2008 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions
You really need to go find another blog.
Your posts suck. Good job SarasotaRanger, I thought it was a pretty solid post.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Aug 21, 2008 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions
just teaching sarsota a lesson. he feels the need to reply fail to half of the posts he reads
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
My bad then.
I revoke the above comment.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Aug 21, 2008 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions
No, only to your tripe.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 21, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Check that, only to tripe
virtually all of your posts qualify.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 21, 2008 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, so "many" others. There's quite a difference between doing it every now and then
to illustrate disapproval of an individual comment and posting it like you after every comment someone makes. Sort of like “I know you are, but what am I?” Actually, I’m pretty sure that if you keep it up, you’ll get banned for trolling… so…..
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 21, 2008 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions
actually i never post "fail", i only did it so to you so you would realize how annoying it is
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
Annoying?
That’s the pot calling the kettle black.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 21, 2008 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Heh
I repeat my last post.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 22, 2008 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions
You post stupid troll shit... i.e., YOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUKKKKKKK!
when the Rangers are getting drilled by the Red Sox and people on here are pissed off. You don’t contribute a coherent thought… ever. You….. just fail. There’s no other way to put it.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 21, 2008 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because the team doesn't have unlimited resources
if we go out and sign a big huge albatross contract and don’t immediately win we’ll be handcuffed for the duration of that contract and be forced to make undesirable decisions based on our lack of payroll flexibility. I hate the “It’s Hicks’ money” argument. It’s my team’s money, and there’s only gonna be so much of it. I want to see it spent wisely.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Aug 21, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree totally.
However, we can’t simply shy away from a guy like Sabathia because we had a bad experience before with the Ho. If Hicks wants to go out and spend the money he has on a guy like CC (who won’t sign here anyway), I see no reason why not. And the reason I say that is because with CC, you know exactly what you’re getting: a guy who rarely ever sees the DL, who throws a bajillion CG’s a year, and who is Cy Young material. I can’t say that any of us would advocate against a pitcher like that coming here, and if spending money is the only way to get a guy like that, then I think we have to take the chance and do it. It’s not like we can’t add other guys through trade and also try to free up some money through that method as well, although you are right, it is a far less desirable choice to have to make than simply signing a lesser name for much less money.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Aug 21, 2008 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions
What I'm trying to say is...
… if you know what you’re getting into when you sign a guy who has proven himself in both leagues, you can’t pass up the opportunity if it’s there. But obviously, whether it actually happens based on the player’s interest is a different story.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Aug 21, 2008 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions
i think we have to make an big effort to get sabathia.
you cant really compare him to Zito as they are two completely different pitchers. Sabathia will be worth every penny, he goes really deep into games and is a perfect pitcher for a park with his ability to dominate left-handed hitters
if we have him for 5 years then in 2010 we have Holland Feliz coming up, and Harrison has developed. We could be looking at a our rotation as being a strength
Feliz and Hurley. The 1-2 punch of the future
K, fine. Retract "it's Hicks money". You make a competitive offer to the top FA SP's.
You don’t go after mediocre pitchers just to beat out “midmarket” teams for players. As you know, top of the rotation pitchers are goddamned expensive and don’t just grow on trees. Few teams lack a top of the rotation guy more than the Rangers, so throw the bank at one of these guys.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 21, 2008 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly + 1
"Well you didn't tell me that you were a Rangers fan" the psychiatrist says to his patient. "That explains a lot!"
Free Agents
Im not trying to say we shouldn’t ever think about going after the top tier guys. Just from a fans point of view so many people throw out the argument that we should be in the top level of teams in payroll simply because of where our team is located. As the first comment shows why isn’t Philadelphia talked about for top free agent pitchers? They realized they couldn’t compete with the NY and Bostons and Chicagos so they focused on that next level of pitcher/player. They went out and got a Jaime Moyer for a reasonable price and look what hes done.
The problem with being considered a big market is you have to act like one. Our mistakes are magnified because to get one of those top guys we have to overpay. So an already big contract becomes even bigger. SF with Zito is a perfect example. They way overbid to land Zito. And while it would still be bad if he was signed for 15 mil a year its even worse at 18 mil per year.
If Hicks is determined to get CC then great. But if he is he needs to get him. Not be in the bidding and lose out. Because while you are bidding on CC the guys you could have had in that second tier of guys are signing elsewhere. So you may miss out on the Garlands and Lowes and the like and then if CC turns you down you get in panic mode and that leads to real bad decisions usually.
Its like being at a bar. You get all dressed up in your tight t shirt and faded a ripped jeans that cost a car payment and put two bottles of gel in your hair. You order a crown on the rocks and tip a quarter because thats all you can afford. You would like to take the hottest girl in the bar home and screw her six ways from Sunday. But while you are over there buying her drinks and sweet talking her like 3 or 4 other dudes are doing the cute, down to earth, spank me hard while you pull my hair girls are going home with guys half as good as you. So when the bombshell turns you down and decides to go home with her “girlfriend” you are stuck choosing between the tubbo stuffing mozzarella sticks in her cheeks or the twig with teeth as big as your ears. If you had just targetted the cute girl from the get go youd be at home laying in a pool of your own sweat with a smile on your face as she goes and towels off.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Hey, bigsteve...Nice Work!
I disagree with you on occasion, but I respect your effort to analyze the DFW market in relation to the Rangers. It’s an assumption that is worth analysis.
We can argue about some of your conclusions, in time…but very nice specific work.
I Stole The Red Finger !
Stop the presses
Beat Weed being…positive?
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 22, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Excellent retort, Beat Weed
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 25, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Brian...
I actually had not read about the origin of “Beat Weed” and your nomination of me.
Reading the article, it refers to Beat Weed as a “free spirit who dreams big dreams…a smart and driven boy…associated with Bum Phillips, Tim McKyer, the Big Bopper, Janis Joplin, and Jimmy Johnson…all winners in life…having the look of a beatnik and never wearing panties.”
I thought you were being derisive. I accept the nickname of Beat Weed with pride!
It fits me perfectly…and what great company!
My apologies for make false assumptions…and I refer to you as Dick Weed with equal affection and respect. Salute, Dick Weed!!!
I Stole The Red Finger !
Actually, as it transpired here
the nickname was referred to in some posts about Jimmy Johnson talking about Joplin and how that skanky thing didn’t wear panties in high school when they called her Beat Weed. If you want to associate yourself with Joplin’s mangy mound, have at it.
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
Garland would be a horrible pitcher to target.
1) Garland is not a strikeout pitcher. He’s been consistently from 4.0 to 4.9 K/9 IP the last 5 years. That’s not necessarily bad, but it leads to the following problems:
2) He’s usually played in front of league average defenses or better which have contributed to his decent/mediocre ERAs. In the Rangers, he would be playing in front of a bottom 5 defensive team, which would substantially raise his ERA.
3) He’s a flyball right-handed pitcher who will have half his starts in a stadium which increases HRs to right field.
And you would want to overpay (and basically most free agents will likely be overpaid) him on the order of 4 year/$48 million or more for someone who has a very good shot at approaching a 6.00 ERA?
I’d much rather overspend on Sabathia and at least have a shot at ace numbers for around twice the price.
R
isn't our OF defense a strength?
So he gives up some home runs. With the way we have been decimated the last few years with injuries I would be happy to pay 12 mil a year for a guy I can pencil in for 33-34 starts and 200-210 innings. Even at a 5 ERA that is worth it. Because if he goes down with an injury you can replace him. You sign a CC and he goes down and you can’t replace that.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
yeah Feldman has such a history of that
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
The point is that if you want a below average pitcher, you don't pay $12 million
It’s a ridiculous waste of resources.
34 starts and 200 innings at a 5 ERA is not below average
Its not Cy Young material but it keeps you from going through 15 starting pitchers in a season and it helps take strain off a bullpen.
Tell me if we had a guy who could go 6, almost 7 innings every 5 days and only give up 3 or 4 runs per start would we be better than we are right now? We damn sure would be. And that guy would probably have about 15 wins by the end of the season with our offense
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
We would be better, but by how much?
5 ERA is below average, but more importantly, all of Garland’s peripherals points to that he is now a below-average pitcher (reasons that Requiem listed). Yes, maybe other pitchers can’t go 200 innings in a season, but the performance itself is definitely below average, and you can use multiple pitchers and ask them for 80-100 innings a piece, which is not unreasonable. Whose spot do you replace in the rotation? Certainly not Millwood or Padilla. Gabbard’s performance this season (what little of it) was better than Garland, Feldman wasn’t much worse, and if AJ Murray comes back, he might be just as good as Garland as well. They won’t last, but you can replace them with disposable pitchers. Heck, even Mark Redman isn’t that much worse. You might gain 3-4 runs by having Garland replacing some bottom of the rotation pitcher, and you are going to pay $11 million for that?
Unfortunately your 5 ERA guy will not give you 7 innings of 4 run ball every single time out, and Garland won’t give you 6-7 innings every time either. Sometimes he will pitch well and go 5-6 innings with 1 run allowed, other times he gets blown to pieces. Sometimes he is super efficient, other times he is not. You can accomplish the same thing with say a Gabbard-Feldman tandem, asking each for 100 innings.
Gabbard, Murray, and Feldman? Really?
First off I don’t think those three could combine and give you what Garland could give you.
Second that is three pitchers right there for one spot in the rotation. Garland allows you to use them elsewhere which allows guys who probably shouldn’t be in the majors stay down.
Look I just think that while in a dream world we would get both CC and Sheets its not realistic. And with the way we have been with injured pitchers over the last two years having a guy who can go out every 5 days all year long and give you on average 6.2 innings per start is something I would be willing to pay for. Even if that guy doesn’t give me a 3.5 ERA.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Is it difficult to find the equivalent of Gabbard Murray and Feldman?
Can you stock one or two of them in OKC?
I know what you are saying, but if the whole key is to avoid bringing up kids too early, then sign a couple of stock players (like Mark Redman) and throw them to the wolves when need be, and say goodbye afterwards. There is no need to directly invest for something like that as if it was an asset.
Again, the problem is not that Garland is not immediately useful to the team, is that the function he brings is not worth the cost. Not to mention that he won’t be interest in one-year deals anyway, and you are stuck with a huge albatross for a long time. See: Carlos Silva
numbers
In the last couple years then sure we would have room to stow away your Ponsons and Redmans in OKC just in case. But we don’t have that ability anymore. We have so many guys already at that level and coming up to that level we can’t just stow away filler guys anymore. Our OKC rotation next year could very well be Hurley, Harrison, Hunter, Diamond, Mendoza with Mathis, Gabbard, and Murray all needing some room somewhere. You can say just push some guys back to AA. Well that looks to be Feliz, Holland, Kiker, Poveda, and Phillips. We have too much talent now. You have seen what kind of uproar letting Galarraga go has caused. If you have Garland you may not have to make that one roster move that could result in letting another Galarraga go.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
If you think you have Galarraga, why would you need Garland?
And if you need spots to put all of those people, why not let one of them pitch in the big leagues? If you already have all of these choices, then you don’t even have sign a spare scrap, just let the most ready ones pitch. Since you have so many choices, even when they are ready, you won’t have spots for all of them, why take up another with Garland?
A Galarraga situation
Imagine we had let Doug Mathis or Joaquin Arias or AJ Murray go this year because we needed the roster spot for Brian Gordon or Steve Rowe because we had 56 injured pitchers. The bitching and moaning would be astronomical. Im not saying any of them will do what Galarraga has done. But with the way so many people knee jerk and overreact on minute stuff makes you think had you just had a guy who wouldn’t get injured maybe you don’t have to find out what if.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Yeah, the question is then if Mathis is not injured
Why not let him pitch instead of Rowe or Gordon? If he is injured, then we won’t be concerned about him getting booted while he is on the DL, and when he gets uninjured, boot Gordon and Rowe instead.
People will knee jerk no matter what, it’s the responsibility of the management to avoid making impulsive decision to respond to the knee-jerk. If they can’t, they are doing a bad job.
Not sure our OF defense is a strength.
Especially if Hamilton performs defensively like he did this year.
Though it hasn’t been as bad as it has in recent years.
However, the problem is that our infield defense has been atrocious. And though Garland is a flyball pitcher, he still gets his fair share of grounders also.
Of course, you can’t replace CC. THAT’S THE POINT. It’s MUCH more important to try to spend money on those things you CANNOT replace rather than those things that are easily replaceable.
Since the things that Garland supplies is easily replaceable, we shouldn’t be paying a premium for that.
R
easily replaceable?
Tell me how many guys we have had start 34 games and pitch 200-210 innings in the last several years. Garland has done that practically every year of his career. And while yes those stats don’t warrant 12 mil per year it keeps you from using 15 pitchers a year most likely and eases the strain on the bullpen. It would be the difference between being able to keep Tommy Hunter down in AAA this year instead of starting his clock and adding him to the 40 man roster 2 years before he had to be. Next year it could mean keeping Feliz or Holland down a little while longer and not rushing them. Im not saying don’t go after CC. But if you do you better get him and not let guys like Garland sign elsewhere while you have all your eggs in the CC or Sheets basket. We can’t afford to sign both of them most likely so if we are going to go after CC and not Garland we better damn sure get CC.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Why not go after Sheets and Garland at the same time?
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on Aug 21, 2008 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Whats our budget?
I have said that would be ideal for me this winter. A rotation of Sheets with Padilla, Millwood, Garland, and McCarthy would be a very strong rotation. That would allow Hurley, Harrison, Hunter and Mendoza to all go and throw in OKC and get more time there and be used in case of injury.
Those two probably could fit in our budget but if we go after CC that pretty much makes those mid level guys too expensive unless we get someone to take Millwood or Padilla off our hands. Realistically we are not gonna raise our payroll by 40 or 50 million in one winter. CC and Garland would probably cost 35-40 between the two. Sheets and Garland probably cost you 27-30.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well,
I agree with your comment about getting CC, if you’re going after him.
I just don’t agree that Garland’s a good backup.
If he signs in Texas, I think there’s a pretty good chance that his ERA explodes a la Zito. And with very little upside, and Garland entering his year 29 season this year AND he’s likely to be a type A free agent and cost a 1st rounder AND that you’re likely going to have to pay him $12 million+/year. No thank you.
As to pitchers who’ve started many games and pitched a lot of innings:
2004 – Rogers (35 GS, 211.2 IP, 4.76 ERA), Drese (33 GS, 207.7 IP, 4.20 ERA)
2005 – Rogers (30 GS, 195.3 IP, 3.46 ERA)
2006 – Millwood (34 GS, 215.0 IP, 4.52 ERA), Padilla (33 GS, 200.0 IP, 4.50 ERA)
2007 – Nobody
If you really want to be strict about it, Garland has NEVER started 34 games and pitched 200-210 innings in a season.
I agree that the strain on the bullpen is higher if you don’t have innings-eaters.
But if you want to keep Tommy Hunter down, keep him down! There’s no one pointing a gun at JD’s head and forcing him to bring Hunter up for this year. That’s not a valid argument IMO.
R
Garland
He won’t be a type A because LA won’t offer him arbitration. They simply can’t take that chance that he would accept it.
As for Hunter it was basically forced upon us by the injuries. Thats something the Garland would alleviate. You can pencil him in for his 33 or so starts. I was looking at 2004 he had 1 relief appearance but still he has had at least 32 starts and the very least 191 innings each of the last 6 seasons. He’ll be 29 all of next year for the most part, late September bday. And the key for me is you wouldn’t be signing him for him to step into your #1 or #2 slot. He would be a #3 at best and that means that if he did go down with an injury you wouldn’t be scrambling as much. As Telegraph said earlier you can get a Scott Feldman to put up somewhat close numbers. If Garland did happen to go down then you can replace that. The problem with signing a Sheets or a Sabathia is if they go down you don’t have anyone to replace those numbers.
Hes played in Chicago for a large portion of his career and I don’t have the numbers in front of me but it is just as much if not more of a hitters park over the last few years than TBiA.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Re: Garland
While it’s possible that LA won’t offer him arbitration, I don’t think it’s as much of a gamble on LAA’s part as you think. After all, it’s only for ONE year and that won’t cripple an LA team which has had a large salary cap and owner willing to spend to win.
The point is that it’s quite possible he will be a type A free agent.
As to Hunter, we could have brought up Steve Rowe or Brian Gordon or Elizardo Ramirez. That’s what they’re there for. The Rangers, rightly or wrongly, decided that it would be better to start the clock on Hunter than go with any of the other choices out there.
There is likely very little relationship between the need for a pitcher and adding Hunter to the 40-man roster.
And in the case where there was, that person should be evaluated and possibly fired for that decision.
R
And I'm still confused
Why should the easy replaceability of their performance be an argument FOR signing a guy?
If his performance is easily replaceable, he’s not worth much, and certainly not worth $12 million+/year.
R
replacing
If we signed him to come in here and be our ace then that would be a mistake. We are signing him to come in and provide stability and a constant performance. You don’t expect him to go down and be out but if he is its easier to replace that as a #3 or #4 guy rather than if he was our #1 or #2 guy. Its part of why Millwood has been such a disaster since coming here. He and Garland were somewhat similar. Innings eaters who had been very healthy and put up respectable numbers. But we signed Millwood to be our #1. When he goes down everybody in the rotation has to move up one spot. You don’t expect your #1 to go down so you don’t prepare for it. You can replace your #3 and #4 pitchers pretty easily. You can find a few performances from guys like a Feldman or Gabbard or whoever until that pitcher comes back. Garland hasnt ever gone down and hasn’t had to be replaced. Im not hoping we sign him and he doesn. But should he its easier to get another #3 or #4 starter rather than have someone come in and be your #1 or #2
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Huh?
I still don’t understand this logic.
I understand that it’s easier to replace a #3 or #4 guy. That’s why it’s NOT WORTH THE PREMIUM YOU’RE PAYING.
You could better spend that money elsewhere, say in locking up your young core players or in signing draft picks or in adding just that little bit more needed to sign that DIFFERENCE MAKER (a la Sheets or Sabathia).
R
11 million is not a premium
Its not especially in todays day and age. Its a price I would be willing to pay for a guy who could come in and consistently make 32/33 starts a year and give me 200 innings even if his ERA goes up to 5. That means I only have to worry about 4 starters not 5.
Like I have said if we are going after CC great. But we better damn sure make sure we get him because he pretty much takes up enough of the budget to where we couldn’t sign a mid level guy. So if we go after CC we probably won’t go after Garland. But if we go after CC and don’t get him and can’t get in on Garland then I will be pissed. Thats why I would go after Sheets and Garland. Sheets is your difference maker and Garland is your steady stabilizer. Maybe I just value that more than you and others. But after this year and last year I don’t see how someone could be upset if we signed a guy like Garland if for nothing else than his health
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Let's put it this way.
I’d rather go after Sheets and Lowe than Sheets and Garland.
And that’s even with Lowe entering his age 36 year!
I think you’re significantly underestimating the possibilities that Garland will be significantly worse these next few years.
Lowe has been basically as healthy these past few years as Garland AND has posted better ERAs AND peripherals (which are a better indicator of future performance than plain ERA). And he’s not likely going to cost as much given the age concerns.
So, if you want to go for a difference maker and a steady stabilizer, I would go after Sheets and Lowe.
I have not been talking about Sabathia. My issue has been solely with Garland.
R
Lowe
Im very weary of guys who pitched at Chavez Rivine. Both their lgERA are about the same over the last few years which to me gives Garland the edge based on his age.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Yeah
I don’t blame you from getting weary from watching Park pitch. You watch him give up so many HRs, your neck will get tired.
And I would hope that their lgERAs are the same. Otherwise, there’d be something seriously wrong with what’s going on in the majors! (Either that or all the good talent would be in the AL or the NL).
What’s probably more important to look at is ERA+ where Lowe (114, 124, 118, 110) has had a significant advantage over Garland (128, 105, 112, 99) not to mention the peripherals where Lowe has averaged around 6.0 K/9 IP and 2.3 BB/9 IP vs. 4.5 K/9 IP and 2.3 BB/9 IP for Garland.
And on top of that, I forgot to mention. Lowe is a sinkerballer to with GB% > 60% EACH YEAR for the past 5 years. Garland has ranged from 39.4% to 48.8% for the past 5 years.
Park to put it in perspective also was around the ~40% range when he pitched.
Are you really looking forward to being weary from watching Garland serve up gopher ball after gopher ball?
R
"Market Size" is a myth
The DFW metropolitan area has no centralized mass transit (the city of Arlington purposely has no mass transit because they don’t want people that need mass transit living there…HA!). That coupled with the geographical size of the area prevents the team from having a larger fan base. Its all good and well to count people living in Delta County like the US Census office does in generating the “metropolitan area”, but Cooper, TX while technically a part of DFW is more than 100 miles away from Arlington.
The “DFW Market” encompasses more than 9000 sq miles. None of the other larger metropolitan areas is even close. LA isn’t even half as big. New York is only about 2/3 the size of DFW.
I’ll never be one to argue that the Rangers should have moved to Dallas as a way to generate more revenue. They were brought to Texas by Arlington (Tom Vandergriff, Arlington Mayor). They wanted them before Dallas ever even tried. By that same token, its silly to assume that the team has to compete like they are situated in the middle of Dallas.
The Rangers are what they are. A team near enough to a big city that if everything is going right they’ll draw some casual fans, but at their core they’re a team situated in a town of 300K with 8 other cities with 100K populations that are “technically” part of their market, but are an hour’s drive away (Carrolton, Denton, Frisco, Garland, McKinney, Mesquite, Plano, and Richardson); not to even mention the number of people in Dallas proper that are an hour’s drive away.
------------
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post
very well said...
…i can’t say how much i think “market size” is over-rated… i’m more interested in actualy revenue… dollars brought in… than by how many people live in anna(part of the metroplex) and how often they make it to game…
I blame it not on Ron Washington, but on society. Society is to blame. And Ron Washington. ~Ken Tremendous on Ron Washington sac bunting in the 11th vs LAA
Attendance accounts for only a sliver of revenue
The fact that the team is located a long way from parts of the market, doesn’t have much of an impact on the revenue the team generates.
Attendance is not the Rangers’ chief revnue problem. Last year, Texas was 16th in attendance, 330k behind the White Sox, 670k behind Boston.
by robert_d_wilfong on Aug 21, 2008 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I would disagree with that.
If the average ticket costs $5 (which it obviously doesn’t) and parking costs $5, if you add 7.5k per home date that’s over six million dollars right there.
by Black Francis on Aug 22, 2008 12:54 AM CDT up reply actions
distance
I live in Murphy and it takes me well over an hour to get anywhere near Arlington. Combine that with stupid money for parking and I’m not going too often. (ok, actually combine that with new house payment and 2 year old daughter…)
Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.
Oakland & New York Yankees are the exact same
in a sense, it has NOTHING to do with how much money you spend, and EVERYTHING to do with spending money smart! We are starting to spend money SMART so we will be ok, but it would be a huge mistake to run outhere and try to buy the world and spend $300 million on free agents this year!
huh?
How are the Yankees and As the same. I wouldn’t consider the Yankees smart with how they spend money.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
um
I kind of got defeated about this subject before I even started the post, but what I meant to say before I started talking about spending money smart, was the most important thing when building a winner is drafting and scouting smart, and both of those teams do that!
by blueballlefty on Aug 22, 2008 6:58 AM CDT up reply actions
i slightly...
…disagree only because itseasy to draft smart when you can money whip any prospect into signing thanks to your abundant revenue stream… if players HAD to sign for slot, then its hard to say they would have the same kind of options where they usually draft…
I blame it not on Ron Washington, but on society. Society is to blame. And Ron Washington. ~Ken Tremendous on Ron Washington sac bunting in the 11th vs LAA
by ivysafety39 on Aug 22, 2008 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Garland?
If Sabathia, Sheets or Burnett are asking too much this offseason, then I’ll happily pass on signing a FA pitcher. I’ve been advocating signing a FA pitcher this offseason, but I’ll puke if they give Garland, Perez, or even Lowe a long term deal.
what is the problem with Perez?
he just turned 27 and is a strikeout southpaw, just what this team needs. I’d be thrilled if the Rangers signed him.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
Perez
He has control problems, and gives up a lot of home runs. He also has never thrown as many as 200 innings in a single season. A 1 year deal would be okay, but he has too many “if’s” to be given a multi-year deal, IMO.
Concur...
He’s still young, but his control really worries me. Durability is also a issue there.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
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