BP chattiness on Ryan and Daniels
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 27, 2008 2:02 PM CDT
49 comments
Two identical questions in the Nate Silver and Will Carroll chats at BP the past two days:
Nolan Ryan (Arlington, Texas): Do you think I'm going to fire Jon Daniels and/or Ron Washington after the season?
Nate Silver: Why would you? In Hamilton and Kinsler, the Rangers have two franchise players to build around. It's been a losing year, but one in which the organization has made progress.
Nolan Ryan (Arlington, TX): Am I going to fire Jon Daniels and/or Ron Washington this offseason?
Will Carroll: You'd be an idiot to do that and you're not an idiot.
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Might as well post a poll
on whether Joaquin Arias has more egomania or miles has more beastliness than beating this dead horse one more time.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Aug 27, 2008 2:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He said...
“Dead Horse”…heh, heh, heh!
"The path you choose, you also choose its destination..."
by pro82 on Aug 27, 2008 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miles has that backwards
It’s more like whether anyone’s beastliness matches Miles’ egomania.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on Aug 27, 2008 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoah, I didn't even know that was something worth asking.
Now I’m afraid.
by philkid3 on Aug 27, 2008 2:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Its a self-fulfilling prophesy
Adam got it through his head last winter that the Nolan hiring meant JD was going to get fired in 12 months. So he posts and posts blogs about it throughout the season, despite zero evidence that such a plan is hatching in Nolan’s head.
Each time, one or two of the several hundred new people who he reaches with each post get nervous about it, and e-mail Evan Grant, TR Sullivan, or even worse, Revo or Galloway. By the end of the season, chats on national sites, like BP and ESPN, get enough questions about it to address it.
Before you know it, reporters will be asking Nolan about it, enough so that Nolan has to voice a “vote of confidence” in JD and Wash, which starts up the “JD is about to get fired” watch at DMN and FWST. When CC Sabathia signs elsewhere (a foregone conclusion), the media will break in saying “Is that the last time Nolan will allow JD to fail?,” and pressure will build…
Eventually Nolan will fire JD, all because one rogue blogger wouldn’t let go of his conspiracy theory.
by JBImaknee on Aug 27, 2008 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
x
Adam got it through his head last winter that the Nolan hiring meant JD was going to get fired in 12 months.
Wrong.
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 27, 2008 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You were certainly quite concerned about it then
Some quotes:
We’ll have to see. If Ryan is just replacing Cogen, Daniels should be safe. If Ryan is being brought in to run business and baseball operations, though…I’m not so sure…
http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/2/6/123514/5621
This one was hedged a bit, but obviously showed you were very worried (note the phrase biggest concern)
My biggest concern about this has been that it is a sign that the Rangers were shifting directions yet again, that after 6 months or so of being committed to rebuilding and the plan Daniels has put in place, someone else is being brought in to implement his own plan and remake the team according to his own vision. The contract extension for Daniels alleviates some of that concern, along with reading that Ryan is 61 years old…maybe I’m wrong, but it seems unlikely someone of that age is going to want to come in, tear everything down, and completely start over.
http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/2/6/205834/9230
Now my post was kind of a silly joke about how things can avalanche, and thus exaggerated a bit for effect. But it is certainly fair to say that your #1 concern since Nolan was hired was that he was going to force out JD – either officially by firing him or unofficially by assuming JD’s responsibilities. I’m as pro-JD as anyone around here, and certainly don’t want to see him go, but you can’t deny that you’ve been worried that Nolan’s shoe is about to drop on JD all year long
by JBImaknee on Aug 27, 2008 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of things
First, this:
You were certainly quite concerned about it then
I agree with. I was not convinced that Daniels was going to be fired…however, I think bringing Ryan in over him, and giving Ryan control over the team (which is, in essence, what Hicks has done) certainly opens the door to the possibility that Ryan will want to bring in his own people, particularly given that Ryan has had no connection with the team or the people here before coming over. Ryan has basically inherited the group in place, a group that looks likely to have 3 straight sub-.500 seasons under its belt at season’s end.
My concerns about Nolan, though, aren’t about whether Daniels stays or goes. It is with the fact that he is being viewed as a savior, someone who should be able to come in and straighten out the baseball operations, when he has really no experience on the baseball end of things. Ryan deciding to let Daniels go so he could bring in, say, Brian Cashman wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing (although it wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing, either). Ryan deciding to let Daniels go so he can bring in Tim Purpura, and because Ryan wants to have a more hands-on role in regards to baseball operations? That would be a big problem.
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 27, 2008 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i didn't know Nolan was so internet savy...
I blame it not on Ron Washington, but on society. Society is to blame. And Ron Washington. ~Ken Tremendous on Ron Washington sac bunting in the 11th vs LAA
by ivysafety39 on Aug 27, 2008 2:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nolan Ryan (Arlington, TX) is an Adam J. Morris sock-puppet.
by oc on Aug 28, 2008 1:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
rofl
"I’m sure you’ve seen Kiker before but I’ll just reiterate that the kid is mean on the mound. He is only 5’10’’ but he is an intimidator. He looks like he hates hitters. He has the juice for pressure situations."
-Jason Parks on Jul 22, 2008 10:08 PM
by Jayslick on Aug 29, 2008 12:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
JD's not getting fired.
Nolan’s already come out and said he’s about getting butts in seats and revamping the pitching program. Nothing about personnel.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Aug 27, 2008 2:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nolan said that
he had not decided on JD & Washington’s fate in a Galloway column a couple of weeks ago.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Aug 27, 2008 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Galloway is as far or farther
From the scene of any Ranger decision making than you or I.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Aug 27, 2008 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed but it wasn't Galloway
claiming he didn’t know what was going to happen to JD & Wash, it was Nolan himself.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Aug 27, 2008 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh
You’d be an idiot to do that and you’re not an idiot.
But, noticed something… both of them definitely didn’t say “NO”…
"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."
by Longhorn on Aug 27, 2008 2:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not mind readers
they can’t know what Ryan is going to do only what he should do…
by mc80aea on Aug 27, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plan
Gots to stick with the plan which seems to be sticking with the main two people.
"Purity of heart is to will one thing" - Kierkegaard
by outofnace on Aug 27, 2008 3:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Washington
If they continue to lose games the rest of the way AND start slowly yet again next year, I would expect him to be fired.
In fact, two years is enough for me. I’d let him go in this winter. But I can see that they played very well for a pretty good while in the middle of the season, so another shot is sort of fair I suppose.
by Black Francis on Aug 27, 2008 3:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think...
if Wash goes, JD goes as well.
I don’t think that will happen though.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Aug 27, 2008 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure about that.
I don’t think the two are tied together that strongly.
My main issue with Washington is that the players don’t come out of camp ready to play against Major League Baseball teams. Two years of slow starts followed by decent baseball. Both were similar…lots of errors, baserunning mistakes, throwing to the wrong base, and shit like that. Jon Daniels has little to do with the day-to-day running of a training camp. That’s your coaching staff.
And if the Rangers find themselves starting out in a hole yet again next season, I would expect that to be the end of Washington’s time here.
by Black Francis on Aug 27, 2008 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe the only people needing to be fired already have been
Connors and Chiti. The starting rotation has completely depleted the bullpen, and it has worn out the offense that has had to overcome the high ERA, to keep the team anywhere in the neighborhood of .500
by awillis111 on Aug 27, 2008 3:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a new one
I have never heard of the offense getting worn out because they have to score so many runs.
"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states" - Barack Obama
by DaheelzCM on Aug 27, 2008 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I kind of thought the same thing
Maybe it’s mentally hard on them or something, I don’t know. But they’re certianly not anymore physically worn out by going to the plate ten runs down or up by five. They try to hit no matter what…ultimately these guys are paid on the numbers they produce.
by Black Francis on Aug 27, 2008 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Try and keep up, noob
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 27, 2008 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO...
i think it would be a shame to see JD go. I know he hasnt made some of the best decisions but he also has made some damn good ones. I think he has at least started this team down the right path and has prepared them for success in the next 2-6 years. As for Wash, it wouldnt hurt my feelings at all if he was gone. I think he has made some huge mistakes this year during games, with the lineups, with ingame pitching decisions, the aweful defense has to be partially on him, and just his attitude towards certain people. I would be more than happy to see a new face in the dugout next year. But please Nolan, give JD at least one more year!!!
by thad728 on Aug 27, 2008 4:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
An objective way to look at it
Is merely to calculate what he has accomplished (JD), and consider mistakes and moves that should have worked but didn’t as the cost of whatever gain has been made. I’s almost impossible to calculate the value of stocking the system, but current season records last year and this year would certainly be a wrong yardstick. Patience!
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Aug 27, 2008 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
towers, dombrowski, shapiro
i see three much better GMs that have worse records at this point in the season.
CLE is starting to rally w/ a nine game winning streak, but each of the three teams should have been better than TEX this year.
JD doesn’t completely suck to the extent that he should get fired. he does a lot of stuff that nolan ryan probably couldn’t do and wouldn’t want to do. i actually think the two-headed monster approach works great (or could potentially work great as the case might be).
washington has done nothing to sway me one way or the other. when the team was playing uninspired baseball (7-16) and making a lot of errors i certainly held him responsible and would have been fine with an ax job then. however, the team responded, and pitching has become the defining weakness. to me, that cannot be attributed to bad managing. if the pitching were better, then maybe the plethora of errors each week would be more noticed. until then, washington gets a stay of execution. that being said, i don’t know that anyone can make a strong case that he has surpassed expectations. if he got sacked i wouldn’t cry foul. is he the guy that leads the youngsters to the promise land? i can’t necessarily give him that vote of confidence.
by sam in so cal on Aug 27, 2008 5:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Towers
Not so sure he is “much better.” He IS much more experienced, but what has he ever really accomplished?
No argument with the other 2, especially Shapiro.
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 27, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's one opinion - or two opinions that are the same since you have BT agreeing
OTOH – in twelve full seasons he has won four division titles and was a MB incident from a fifth last year. 87-65 in 2004 falling short in the final weekend would make six division titles. SD appeared in the 1998 WS under towers.
if over twelve seasons a GM (JD for example) landed four division titles and lost two on the final weekend (competitive for 162 games), i would consider the GM great and someone who has accomplished a lot.
your yardstick may be different – thus enabling “you” (you in general not you specific) to embrace someone who has accomplished very little.
oh, and towers absolutely FLEECED daniels. that doesn’t make him great as much as it makes JD a dipshit.
by sam in so cal on Aug 27, 2008 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dipshit may be an appropriate word in this case
“oh, and towers absolutely FLEECED daniels. that doesn’t make him great as much as it makes JD a dipshit.”
So, I guess the Ramirez trade makes Shapiro a dipshit.
And, I guess the Teixeira trade makes Schuerholz a dipshit.
Gotcha. Easy rhythmatickin. Even a little brain like me can keep score w/ this formula…
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 27, 2008 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
funny that you would defend JD...
and completely ignore the support i provided that towers is a great GM.
JD has admitted getting fleeced, so he probably doesn’t need you to defend him.
however, defending your assertion that towers has accomplished nothing would be appreciated.
as to the other trades you mentioned (that took place during the respective teams’ playoff runs), CLE certainly benefited from lofton – a key figure in positioning the team to defeat NYY (.283 regular aeason w/ CLE and .375 versus NYY in the LDS). it was an advantageous trade for TEX, but deadline deals can sometimes appear lopsided to teams that have never won a playoff series.
further, as far as “bad” trades go, it isn’t even in the same conversation as the TEX – SD blunder – well, it shouldn’t have been.
to your next point, teixeira was .317 in 54 games with ATL, so it wasn’t his fault the team sucked. it was a calculated risk that backfired. TEX definitely got the best of ATL in that one. i think their GM would admit the same.
the difference is that the other GMs mentioned have a track record of success. if you make a handful of bad deals to every stinker, then you can still maintain status as a GM that fans respect. if your moves are hit or miss, then you need to build credibility to preclude people like me from second guessing you.
now that we made that unnecessary diversion, what’s wrong with towers (in your opinion)?
by sam in so cal on Aug 27, 2008 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Towers is middle of the pack
That was my point. He doesn’t belong in the same company as the other two or Epstein.
The thrust of my commentary was aimed at the ridiculousness of your dipshit premise. That is all.
Carry on.
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 28, 2008 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
What does that make Theo Epstein, then?
Epstein’s won two World Series, but he also got fleeced by JD last year in the Gagne deal.
Same with Pat Gillick and Padilla.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
by RCCook on Aug 27, 2008 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
track record
first of all, BOS won the WS last year, right?
epstein thought murphy was expendable and felt that an extra arm would bolster the bullpen for the WS run. before manny’s exodus i don’t even know if murphy would have seen the field. man ram, ellsbury, drew (IR, but still) and crisp are all as good or better. in any event, BOS was 77-55 last time i checked – now exactly not wallowing in mediocrity. please expound on how exactly the trade was so horrible for BOS.
maybe you were focusing on gabbard?
the difference is that the other GMs mentioned have a track record of success. if you make a handful of good deals to every stinker, then you can still maintain status as a GM that fans respect. if your moves are hit or miss, then you need to build credibility to preclude people like me from second guessing you.
as soon as JD wins two WS let me know. it seems that theo might be doing something right.
by sam in so cal on Aug 27, 2008 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If winning the WS is a marathon, I'd say Theo got a 20 mile head start on Daniels
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 28, 2008 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's simple really
Nolan’s a real baseball man….He brought heaters…like they’ve never been brung…’fore …or since!
If Nolan…weren’t such a benevolent…and kindly sort…he’d just fire everybody…and install his own self…cuz…he’s badass…and a…real…badass…baseball man!
Signed,
Beat Weed
p.s. I’m right…and all you stat nerds…know it!
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 27, 2008 5:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Did thedirkatron ghost write that post?
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Aug 27, 2008 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beat Weed did
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Aug 27, 2008 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, of course
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Aug 27, 2008 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think beat weed is a great name for that particularly doggy
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 27, 2008 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I applaud
BT’s dedication to getting that nickname to stick.
Plaschke: Scioscia, the former Dodgers catcher, is the model manager who has created an atmosphere of winning.
Junior:It's that simple. Mike Scioscia brings a Glade Plug-In labeled "Winning™" into the clubhouse and everyone who breathes it in gains 15 points in average.
by TheBZA on Aug 28, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Nolan shitcans JD
it will be because JD came in and traded off the most talented young pitchers in the system, and that is an offense that generally will cost a GM his job if the ML team never plays meaningful September baseball.
I think JD has learned some lessons on the fly, and done a nice job rebuilding the minor league pitching depth, but if he loses his job it will be justifiable IMO. I’d just be worried sick that his successor would come in and set the team back even further, because the system appears to be back on the right track.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
by tricer on Aug 27, 2008 8:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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