An interesting comment vis-a-vis Texas

by Adam J. Morris on Aug 28, 2008 10:00 AM CDT Comment 53 comments

I asked a scout (which is a sin for saber guys) to give me a list of teams he knew were saber. He responded with these teams: Arizona, Boston, Cleveland, Oakland, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Texas, and Toronto.

Mainly interesting because Texas was included, but also a pretty interesting group of teams there.

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That

is really encouraging for me to hear.

by jwiscarson on Aug 28, 2008 10:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

what the hell does that mean? saber?

-Wakes

by Wakes1331 on Aug 28, 2008 10:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That they use

statistical analysis heavily as part of their eval in addition to the traditional stuff, I’d guess.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 28, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed.

Basically it’s any team that uses quantitative analysis for at least some of their decision making processes.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2008 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that TX is included. Many will look at that list and say “see? sabermetrics is crap, most of those teams are losers” but that would be a very short sighted way to look at it. Just one of many factors in creating a winning team at the top of a solid organization. Several of those teams have much more hope for the future than a couple of years ago, even if it’s not yet showing up in the W-L columns at the major league level.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 28, 2008 10:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Tim Lincecum

132 pitches.

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."

by Longhorn on Aug 28, 2008 10:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Botts

Botts got his shot due to the numbers he put up in the minors. I’ll bet the scouts were not overly impressed by him. Might be the same with Cruz. I think JD was heavy on the sabemetric side on things when he first got the GM job. Hopefully he has come to appreciate his scouts judgement and uses both to make his decisions.

Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.

by RangerMad on Aug 28, 2008 11:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps

but it was people, not numbers that told him it was ok to trade Chris Young. I think acquiring Wilkerson could be chalked up to numbers. Did scouts still think as well of him when he was dealt to TX despite his nice career OBP?

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 28, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think JD's scouts and coaches screwed him pretty badly

on the A-Gon/Young deal and the B-Mac trades (coaches mainly).

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Aug 28, 2008 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

trade

no s on that one

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Aug 28, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would not give him a pass like this, it would be like saying he defied all of his scouts recommendations to make those trades.

by Telegraph on Aug 28, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not giving him a pass

he made the final decision and deserves the blame. I’m just saying that I think his decision in that case was based on the evals of his baseball people and not on a stat-based predictive measure. No matter how the decision was made he bears the final blame.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 28, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And another thought on that

I’m sure you realize that most GMs ask for the opinions of their team’s coaches, scouts, analysts, etc. before making a big decision like that. Of course he would listen to Showalter, his scouts, pitching coach et al. It is not giving Daniels a pass to say he did that. Any GM who did not listen would be an absolute idiot.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 28, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I replied to the wrong person - It was for GD1

Nevertheless, since we have no idea when the “numbers system” was implemented and to what degree at the time, there is no reason to believe that Wilkerson was because of number chalking. Afterall, if we analyze the statistics strictly, Wilkerson’s 2005 season is league average, and almost identical to his 2007 season in terms of run values.

On the other hand, you are right in that it does make for an interesting discussion on how much impact pure statistics analysis had for the GM decisions that were made throughout JD’s tenure. For example, the BMac trade: mostly numbers or mostly scouts?

by Telegraph on Aug 28, 2008 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Food for thought

on all of the trades before 2007. The trades that brought back a ton of young prospects would almost have to be pretty reliant on scouting, but I’d love to know if there was any stat run downs before the trades that everyone here loves to loathe.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 28, 2008 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The pertinent question here ...

Is The High Heat Express saber?

"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants

by Chase Irwin on Aug 28, 2008 11:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

First thing that came to mind.

Also makes me think the Nolan firing JD rumor is bunk.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Aug 28, 2008 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily

The fear I have with Ryan is that he will change what to me seems a front office that is trying to use both sabermetrics and traditional scouting well. I think a successful organization has to use both well, and there are probably not very many teams right now who don’t realize that.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 28, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bwahaha

I think we all know the answer to that. And that’s what could turn out to be the problem, of course.

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Aug 28, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pittsburgh and Tampa

Never really thought of them that way, interesting.

Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return

by Brett Perryman on Aug 28, 2008 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Pittsburgh

I think it is Huntington and this new group, not the old management team that got axed.

Huntington came from Cleveland, I believe, which is saber-friendly.

by Adam J. Morris on Aug 28, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he is a big fan

from what I’ve read that was what he hung his hat on when he got the job.

by bushe on Aug 28, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He helped to create DiamondView

A huge database of numbers, scouting reports, ect. for just about every player in the league past and present. He also hired Dan Fox from BP recently.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

good read on the whole Diamond View Database

http://www.cleveland.com/gameplan/index.ssf?/gameplan/more/part2.html

by laxtonto on Aug 28, 2008 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is excellent.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2008 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

It’s just weird to think of Pittsburgh in that way.

Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return

by Brett Perryman on Aug 28, 2008 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

tampa, definitely

did you see E:60 this past tuesday?

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."

by Longhorn on Aug 28, 2008 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I should have clarified

Both organizations have new leadership, and obviously are much more modern. It’s just odd to think of these two organizations this way because of their tradition as very scouting oriented, particularly TB.

Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return

by Brett Perryman on Aug 28, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prediction

By this time next year writers will be talking about the “Tampa Way” regarding their turn around since new ownership.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 28, 2008 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Tampa Bay Ways?

by Telegraph on Aug 28, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

underrated.....

"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner

by red shoe ranger on Aug 28, 2008 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pittsburgh seems to be on that path.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2008 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And my friend from Pittsburgh HATES it.

He says this front office can’t possibly be better than the old ones and all these trades will suck and blah blah blah.

by philkid3 on Aug 28, 2008 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly, that was the same attitude here.

The first few deals and year looked awful. Trades like Dewon Brazelton for Sean Burroughs were questioned after Dewon had a decent spring start. It should pay off in the long run.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2008 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tampa is definitely a saber team.

They have a handful of former Prospectus employees. I’m not sure if you read BP’s book, Between the Numbers, but James Click essentially wrote the thing and he’s currently in the Rays organization. As is Chaim Bloom, although he’s not in an analyst position.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't they debut a mascot of sorts recently?

Named Dr. Stat or something like this, basically making fun of the saber people? I seem to remember reading something about this on FJM…

by jwiscarson on Aug 28, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They show a cartoon series on Sunday afternoons for kids day.

Yes, the villain is named Dr. Stat, but I don’t believe the Rays actually made it, but rather one of their agencies. Plus Dr. Stat is more a mocking of trivial stuff than actual statistics. Most of his lines are “Do you know how many bats were broken in 2005?” Obviously it could (and has) had some negative feedback, but the Rays themselves aren’t of that mindset.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 28, 2008 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs