Wow
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 28, 2008 1:31 PM CDT
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PrintFrom BP's front page:
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American League
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National League
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| Angels |
99.9%
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Cubs |
99.5%
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| Rays |
98.0%
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Brewers |
86.3%
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| Red Sox |
93.6%
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Diamondbacks |
67.2%
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| White Sox |
72.9%
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Mets |
62.8%
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| Twins |
33.5%
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Phillies |
38.4%
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| Yankees |
1.4%
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Dodgers |
29.5%
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Complete Playoff Odds Report
It boggles the mind (or mine, anyway) that the Yanks, heading into September, are virtually eliminated from playoff contention.
49 comments
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0 recs |
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Comments
Yep
Yankees have been a freaking dynasty. Streak of what, 13 straight years in the playoffs?…very impressive.
"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."
Wasn't the Braves streak longer?
Without looking it up – 1991 – 2005 vs 1995 – 2007?
Nonetheless, both are amazing in that they were both mostly home-grown dynasties in a sport where free agency is such a big factor.
Congrats to the Rays for showing that a team not in Boston or NY can compete in the AL East
Linky
no worky.
he’s still hitting better than Saltalasuckia—while playing vastly superior defense...Athos
Just change it
to http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
itt has sbnation in there accidently.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Aug 28, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
wow, seattle is already eliminated
you know you have a horrible season when you spend tons of money and trade your best prospects then get officially eliminated in August
I give up
I didn't need them to get mathematically eliminated to realize they have a horrible season.
Dumbass.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
Boggles your mind?
=Gives me an everlasting chubby.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley
I'm not shocked ...
… they have been teetering on this for the last few years. Surprising sure, but not mind-boggling. What is a bigger surprise is that it isn’t the Red Sox that are gonna be coming out of the East. Tampa Bay has always been a young, dangerous team but you wondered if they were ever gonna put it all together.
Yep
I’m less surprised about the Yankees losing. I never thought it the Drays would be ahead of them. Figured on Toronto, if anybody.
by Black Francis on Aug 28, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
You knew
Tampa Bay would breakthrough some year. I was just surpised they broke all the way to first. I figured they’d make noise one year, and then be in the playoffs the next.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
I'm surprised that people are so surprised by the Rays.
I mean, to this point they’re a few games better than I thought they would probably be, but they’re also, like, 6 games above their pythagorean.
I definitely thought the Rays would be able to contend for a playoff spot at least for most of the season, if not make it thanks to a Yankees collapse. PECOTA had them winning 88 games.
88 games
Even if you thought they’d win that many it still would be a surprise to have them anywhere near 98% in the chart above.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
Yes
But to me, that’s partly because the Rays have had a little bit of flukishness and the Yankees and Blue Jays have been surprising. I thought they’d be better.
Not a huge surprise, but the difference between the Yankees/Blue Jays and Rays adds up to a moderate surprise to me.
The 98% surprises me a bit just because I thought there would be more competition in the East.
I predicted the Rays as the wild card team
Although I think I also predicted Cleveland as winning the WS, which sort of cancels that out.
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 28, 2008 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions
It makes me happy
they went in the tank after he left.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
suck it, big daddy George
and Hank, too.
poor Girardi.
"So you have no frame of reference here, Donny. You're like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie and wants to know... "
by Walter Sobchak on Aug 28, 2008 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
girardi
screw him, he’s a lifelong yankee too.
"I’m sure you’ve seen Kiker before but I’ll just reiterate that the kid is mean on the mound. He is only 5’10’’ but he is an intimidator. He looks like he hates hitters. He has the juice for pressure situations."
-Jason Parks on Jul 22, 2008 10:08 PM
A-freakin-men.
Good for Joe Torre, who still has a real shot at the playoffs (although virtually no real shot at winning anything). He got a raw deal.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
99.99%
so you’re telling me theres a chance!
the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is
"bottles the mind"
“what?! did you say bottles?”
“yeah, like your thoughts are all bottled up…”
awesome.
I blame it not on Ron Washington, but on society. Society is to blame. And Ron Washington. ~Ken Tremendous on Ron Washington sac bunting in the 11th vs LAA
Glad someone posted this
I was thinking the same thing, but was just too lazy to look up the quote.
Tampa
is the bigger surprise to me. I thought they might contend for a while this year, then fade away, and look good for 2009. I never thought they’d be a virtual lock at this date.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
Prediction
Texas wins its next 24 games
LAA finishes up 13-14 heading into the final series vs. Texas in Anaheim.
Texas wins the first two to stretch its winning steak to 29 games and needs only to beat LAA in the final game of the season to win the West title.
Dustin Nippert, in a spot start for Vicente Padilla who was still ailing from the bruised hands that he suffered while pummeling Evan Grant in late August, gives up 18 runs in the first inning and the Rangers lose 22-3. Despite the 20-hit, 18-run first inning, Ron Washington let Nippert work through his troubles before pulling him mid-batter with two out in the third inning when his pitch count reached 99.
The Rangers only runs of the game came in the ninth inning when Michael Young hit a three-run homer to collect his 200th hit of the season. Following the game, Young said he was very happy with how the season ended.
“It’s a great way to end the year. I wasn’t sure that we’d get it, but we really pulled through there in that final at-bat,” said Young. “I want to thank my teammates, Mr. Hicks, the front office and all my fans for their support this year. I’m ready to go out and get another 200-hit season next year. This is what you dream of when you’re a kid. This is what its all about.”
by robert_d_wilfong on Aug 28, 2008 3:33 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
No HR
I think Wash has Young bunting in that situation.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
On a related note...
…at what point in the season will Wash start batting MY leadoff to maximize his chances of getting to 200?
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
24+2=29?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Current 3-game winning streak. 27+2=29.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Aug 28, 2008 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Twins/White Sox
Interesting that the White Sox have that much of an advantage over the Twins even though the Twins are only a game out.
by Randy Richardson on Aug 28, 2008 4:29 PM CDT reply actions
Becket to DL, and to visit Dr Andrews tomorrow
Lets go Millwood!!!
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/HeadLines.aspx?sport=MLB&hl=248183
Ouch
Dr Andrews is not a good sign
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Yowza, Andrews!?
…And scores of Southies plummet from tall buildings…
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley
First thing...
that I thought of when I heard that as well. Milwood? Kenny Rogers? I think the BoSox will try and get someone.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
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