AJM's theory of the day

by Adam J. Morris on Aug 30, 2008 1:00 PM CDT Comment 63 comments

Chris Davis is considered an elite hitting prospect, and has hit well in the majors. He's been in the majors a couple of months now. He's hitting 8th or 9th in the order, generally, supposedly because he's less experienced and needs to be down there.

Joaquin Arias is considered an elite fielding prospect whose bat is a serious question mark. He's had an OPS higher than 750 in a season once in his pro career -- in 2005, at Frisco, when he had a 758 OPS. He's been in the majors a week or two, and is hitting leadoff.

I've been trying to figure out the discrepancy, and I think I've figured it out...Ron Washington doesn't know how old Arias really is. But he looks at him and figures he's got to be at least 30, and thus, is experienced and can handle the pressure of hitting leadoff.

After all, would you expect this guy:

via l.yimg.com

To be just 23 years old?

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Good theory...

At first glance at Arias, I thought Otis Nixon had returned from faded halls of history…
But I think the real difference in the way Wash handles them may boil down to how he views their potential in the future with the Rangers.
Davis = Future
Arias = No Future
So based on the last two years, if you throw Arias in at lead off and he flops, no biggie, doesn’t hurt his trade value… but if he thrives… woohoo, maybe someone will take him in an off season trade… you never know the Yanks have to plan to replace Jeter someday… LOL Maybe they’ve just been allowing the Rangers to get Arias ready for them…LOL

by JReddog on Aug 30, 2008 1:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL twice?

It’s really not that brilliant.

"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants

by Chase Irwin on Aug 30, 2008 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh to be

23 years old again……….

Today is the youngest you will ever be. Act like it.

by miles on Aug 30, 2008 1:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wishes

It would be, let’s see. That I’m transformed into a 23 year old LH pitcher, with about 103 mph of canned heat and a fudgehammer curve ball too tempting to not swing at, and a changeup that backs up like a RH slider. Oh, and spot control in all eight marginal plate areas. You’d think the rest of the perqs of life would just take care of themselves! Now the only hope for all that is that it depicts Derek Holland, with 95% of the above goodies and a healthy, ten year future in MLB.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Aug 30, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ed

you are the man, don’t let anybody else tell you otherwise.

"So you have no frame of reference here, Donny. You're like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie and wants to know... "

by Walter Sobchak on Aug 30, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Washington's mad some strange decisions

I don’t really care that Arias is leading off, but I would like to see Davis hitting in the middle of the lineup.

by Black Francis on Aug 30, 2008 1:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Better theory

Ron Washington knows how old Arias actually is.

—————-

but really, davis’s lineup spot is becoming comical. 9th? 9th!? Nelson Cruz hits 7th and has proven less. Brandon Boggs has hit 1st, 2nd, and 6th and has proven less. Im surprised travis metcalf wasnt hitting ahead of him.

Shouldnt we be considering 2009s lineup? Davis better not be batting lower than 6th next year.

the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is

by DSheppard on Aug 30, 2008 1:54 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

rec'd

I agree with all of that. I understand not batting Davis ahead of the veterans like Byrd and Blalock. I don’t really agree with it, but I understand the reasoning behind it. But what the hell is he doing hitting behind Cruz and Laird?

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Aug 30, 2008 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Wash has suggested that he tries

to separate the right handed and left handed hitters. I don’t necessarily agree its that important in this context but that seems to be his reasoning. At this time of year, and considering where the team will finish, I’m just glad Davis is getting soom AB’s.

by Jea103 on Aug 30, 2008 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"some"

by Jea103 on Aug 30, 2008 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the problem with that is

that lefty or not, davis has been one of our best hitters vs lefties.

the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is

by DSheppard on Aug 30, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it may not make all that much sense...

but Davis is the rookie with the least to prove on this roster, and he’s being given the least amount of at bats. I agree Washington probably should be more worried about winning than anything else, but who’s to say the direction to hit Arias, in Kinsler’s absense, in the leadoff spot wasn’t made to give him the most at bats of anybody for the remainder of the year to see what he’s got? and who’s to say Cruz is in the same position in respect to rookies who need more at bats to prove once and for all that they can make it or break down? not the best plan, but it does, numerically, give them more at bats than Davis…

"So you have no frame of reference here, Donny. You're like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie and wants to know... "

by Walter Sobchak on Aug 30, 2008 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

dont talk about otis nixon like he's a kid

wash wont be tricked, he’s no fool.

"I’m sure you’ve seen Kiker before but I’ll just reiterate that the kid is mean on the mound. He is only 5’10’’ but he is an intimidator. He looks like he hates hitters. He has the juice for pressure situations."
-Jason Parks on Jul 22, 2008 10:08 PM

by Jayslick on Aug 30, 2008 2:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

walking?

Does Arias have a walk yet?

"Purity of heart is to will one thing" - Kierkegaard

by outofnace on Aug 30, 2008 2:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

He might have a walker in his closet though

A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555

by boomer1 on Aug 30, 2008 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

"California is the most liberal state in the union. No joke that place is probably going to slide into the ocean one of these days. California is a wasteland run by liberals"

-Sharky- what a nice guy huh? I guess he doesn't watch any TV shows or movies.. If California goes so goes the entertainment industry. What a nut job!!

by LAMuscleFag on Aug 30, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rec

for the geniusness

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Aug 30, 2008 2:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Arias

is fast though, so he is a top of the order guy.

Duh.

Don’t you know anything about baseball Adam?

"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky

"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.

by DJCahill on Aug 30, 2008 2:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Arias...

Looks like some guy who would shiv you in the back alley for your wallet.

Honorable JK

by Strangers on Aug 30, 2008 2:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

-1

wrong, in so many ways

"Purity of heart is to will one thing" - Kierkegaard

by outofnace on Aug 30, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yet so true.

Today is the youngest you will ever be. Act like it.

by miles on Aug 30, 2008 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I cant apologize.......

Im sure hes a great family man after the initial screaming and running away from when he walks in the front door…….

Honorable JK

by Strangers on Aug 30, 2008 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BAAAHHAHA!

I think he could solve it by shaving his mustache…that thing is QUITE creepy.

"So you have no frame of reference here, Donny. You're like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie and wants to know... "

by Walter Sobchak on Aug 30, 2008 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

-1

poor

"Purity of heart is to will one thing" - Kierkegaard

by outofnace on Aug 30, 2008 3:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

-1

Poor.

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Aug 30, 2008 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hasn't Washington said...

…he thinks of the #9 hitter as a second leadoff hitter?

Maybe he wants Davis to lead off someday.

There seems to me no question that the Batman film "The Dark Knight"... is at some level a paean of praise to the fortitude and moral courage that has been shown by George W. Bush in this time of terror and war. -- Andrew Klavan

by Lucas on Aug 30, 2008 3:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Leadoff as oppose to 5th/6th..

RBI situations, that’s the pressure were talking about. There is only pressure hitting leadoff the 1st inning of the game.

by tyd3311 on Aug 30, 2008 3:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

In the Rangers lineup....

9th is the second cleanup spot, as well as second leadoff spot… doubly important… all the pressure is on Davis…

by JReddog on Aug 30, 2008 3:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure

you’re fairly tongue in cheek in your comments. However, what difference does it make where CD bats this year as long as he’s getting at bats and is playing every game? Seems like excessive crabbiness has seeped into our blog about a fun little sport.
Also, where would you bat Arias, a guy with a lot of speed and with our regular leadoff batter’s groin hurting?

by mcgee48c on Aug 30, 2008 3:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

man

there are people who spend 100s of hours every year watching the rangers and just as many discussing them. most people who put so much time into it arnt going to just dismiss everything as a “fun little sport”. Whats it matter if the rangers lose 120 games, its just a fun little sport!

if you want a bunch of casual baseball fans who dont care about the details, you arnt in the right place.

the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is

by DSheppard on Aug 30, 2008 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Yeah, that was retarded

The irony of crabbiness.

"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants

by Chase Irwin on Aug 30, 2008 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lonestarball

We definitely care about the details.

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Aug 30, 2008 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Details.

You mean Lone Star Ball.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 30, 2008 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You need

to turn on your sarcasm detector.

by mcgee48c on Aug 30, 2008 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

incorrect

you need to learn how to post sarcasm.

the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is

by DSheppard on Aug 31, 2008 6:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're

being defensive in that you didn’t consider the possibiliy that the statement was sarcastic. Does it just have to drip sarcasm to be a valid post of sarcasm?
It seems that the whole post is a somewhat sarcastic and satiric statement about how old Arias is and how able Wash is in determining his real age. I am chiming in with my own little bit of sarcasm in keeping with the tone of the post even if it is not a high quality offering.
I have no issue with you whatsoever. But, you really whaled into me and I’m just pointing out that you took something really seriously that I was being a little sarcastic about.

by mcgee48c on Aug 31, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arias

Do you think they’re showcasing him by putting him at leadoff? As it stands, his shoulder’s nowhere near strong enough for him to be a utility guy and he has no future at 2B in this organization for obvious reasons.

He’s “still” 23 and he could be worth something as a throw-in.

by LiamP on Aug 30, 2008 4:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

showcasing

probably to some degree. I think he would make a pretty nice secondary piece in a trade.

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Aug 30, 2008 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wash...

is just over protecting CD and throwing Arias to the wolves. I’m fine with Arias leading off while Kins is out, but CD should hit no lower than 7th imo.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Aug 30, 2008 4:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Do you think the wolves would attack or run away?

Honorable JK

by Strangers on Aug 30, 2008 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Throw them to the Arias's....

Honorable JK

by Strangers on Aug 30, 2008 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depends...

on if they got a good look at his face or not.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Aug 30, 2008 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm sorry, but

-1.

Arias looks young.

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."

by Longhorn on Aug 30, 2008 4:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

he looks a little older than he is, but its certainly not a greg oden situation.

the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is

by DSheppard on Aug 30, 2008 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No doubt

Olden looks like he is about 60

A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555

by boomer1 on Aug 30, 2008 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Run Production Prediction

I remember reading something on BTF that some studies have been done (Bill James I believe) on batting orders. I’ve looked at a few articles from a Google search, and basically the difference in run production for a particular lineup is not all that great from another. Baseball Musings came up with an algorithm to determine the best and worst lineups among a particular group of players. I entered the players used from last night’s game, and I used their OBA and SLG from today. The “best” lineup would average 5.625 runs a game, while the “worst” lineup would average 4.986 runs a game. So there is not even a one run difference between the best and worst lineups. Incidently, the “worst” lineup would be with Cruz hitting first, not Arias. However, all of the “worst” lineups have Davis hitting ninth. The “best” lineups have Bradley hitting first. You can see the results of the run production predictions here.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Aug 30, 2008 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

that it has little to do with the final score since you are talking about a fraction of a run, but its still something that just doesn’t make sense. Davis hitting 9th just doesn’t make any sense, as evidenced by every worst lineup having Davis hitting 9th.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Aug 30, 2008 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

all the best lineups except one

have davis hitting cleanup. The exception has arias.

by cashman on Aug 30, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Only" .639 runs per game

which means about 103 runs over the course of a season.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 30, 2008 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but we

aren’t talking about a full season here.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Aug 30, 2008 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

See below

for the point I was getting at. You cannot give up half a run a game and not have it affect the W-L columns.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Aug 31, 2008 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A Full Season

You are right, things change when you talk about a 162-game season. Using current runs scored and runs allowed, I plugged them into the Hardball Times’ pythagorean formula, RS2/(RS2 + RA^2). The Rangers average 5.49 runs a game, which would be 889 for the season. However, they allow 5.96 runs a game, which would be 966 runs for the season. This projects to be a .459 win percentage, or 74 wins. With the extra 103 runs, the projected win percentage would be .513, or 83 wins. So there is a nine-run difference. Of course, Washington is not using the worst possible lineup, nor is he using the best. In fact, I don’t think there is a manager in baseball who would bat Bradley first (this would be the “best” lineup). So the actual difference in what Washington is doing and what the best manager in baseball (whomever you think this is) would do is smaller than nine games.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Aug 31, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

AJM is a smart dude

…with some good baseball thoughts but this is my favorite.

by FuturePants on Aug 30, 2008 5:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Possibly a new feature?

"I’ll say something that doesn’t need context: anyone who is a Mariner’s fan is a douchebag." - FuturePants

by Chase Irwin on Aug 30, 2008 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ROFL

I nominate this for AJM’s best post of the entire season. It’s too bad you can’t get main page stories onto the rec list, because this is solid gold.

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Aug 30, 2008 6:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey...

ease up on the ass kissing there huh. It really isn’t solid gold. =P

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Aug 30, 2008 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, maybe it's gold plated then

No, honestly I thought this was really funny. You have to remember, I don’t like Ron very much…

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Aug 30, 2008 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really...

You don’t like Ron very much? Understatement of the day.

That’s like saying I’m not a huge fan of “W”.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Aug 30, 2008 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My theory

Washington is a moron.

"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states" - Barack Obama

by DaheelzCM on Aug 31, 2008 8:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Although to his credit, he pwnd Dale Scott pretty good with what he said after the game last night.

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Aug 31, 2008 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which was? :)

by rcreative on Aug 31, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"It was more than a tough call," [manager Ron] Washington said. "Dale Scott can’t miss those types of calls. He said that Torii Hunter got a finger on home plate as he slid past the first time. A finger. That’s what made me just walk away."

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Aug 31, 2008 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Washington and Scott are both Morons

and both need to be out of baseball, Wash may have been a good coach (and i don’t doubt that) but as a manager he is over his head and has no clue, he continues to make the same mistakes over and over again., Boggs in lead off with Kins out i can see that, and CD needs to be higher in the line up against right hand pitching, rally killers like Blalock and Laird should be at the bottom of the lineup. Dale Scott needs to retire, if he was so blind to miss a call that was not even close either in slow mo or real time then something else was going on., maybe he blinked and them just assumed, these egocentric dudes (most of them) will not ask the other for help, yeah lets not get it right after all these are just the lowly un important rangers, who really cares if they loose.

by TRFAN on Aug 31, 2008 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs