Ten Minor League Growth Stocks for 2009
At the conclusion of the 2007 minor league season, Derek Holland, Wilfredo Boscan, Martin Perez, Jose Vallejo, and Mitch Moreland had one thing in common – they were not considered to be among the Rangers’ Top 30 Prospects. Had you bought stock in any of these guys before the 2008 season by predicting their emergence, you would be rolling in the riches afforded to those who see and follow prospects before they become household names.
With the 2008 minor league season drawing to a close, a similarly talented collection of Rangers players are likely to be left off of the Top30 lists of most, if not all of the Rangers minor league experts. Below is my list of ten under-the-radar minor league players who are likely to emerge as compelling prospects in 2009.
(1) Joe Wieland – 18 yo RHP drafted in the 4th round combined a 90 MPH fastball, above average curve, and change to fashion a 1.44 ERA, 8.5K/9IP, 1.6 BB/9IP, and 0.92 WHIP in 43.2 innings in the AZ Rookie League. Weiland was 3rd in ERA and 2nd in WHIP among pitchers with at least 40 IP in the AZL. The K/BB ratio over 5 and .200 BAA suggest that he could make the jump to Clinton next year and join Boscan, NeRa, Perez, and Pimental in a remarkable starting rotation.
(2) Clark Murphy – 18 yo 5th round draft pick played 25 games in the AZ Rookie league and hit 358/435/526/962. Had he qualified, Murphy would have had the fourth highest OPS in the AZL. A promotion to Spokane in 2008 will reveal whether the Rangers have added another slugger to the system.
(3) Tomas Telis – As a catcher in the DSL, Telis hit 299/374/380/754. Assuming he moves stateside in 2009, he will take his first hacks in the US as a 17 year old. Depending on how things work out with Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, and Christian Santana, Telis could become the Rangers #1 rated catching prospect in 2009.
(4) Juan Grullon – 18 yo LHP pitched 48 innings in the DSL with a 2.44 ERA, 12.6 K/9IP, 4.7BB/9IP, 202 BAA, and 1.29 WHIP. Assuming he can improve his control, Grullon could become the next in an impressive line of LA pitchers in the Rangers system.
(5) Tim Murphy – 21 yo LHP might make a Top30 list or two prior to the 2009 season based on his outstanding introduction to professional baseball (47.2 IP, 2.83 ERA, 9.7K/9IP, 3.4BB/9IP, 173 BAA, and 1.0 WHIP). Assuming he starts 2009 in the Bakersfield rotation, he could move quickly through the system.
(6) Anyenil Mendoza – 18 yo RHP pitched 38.2 innings in the DSL with a 2.33 ERA, 10 K/9IP, 2.8BB/9IP, 238 BAA, and 1.24 WHIP. An almost 1.5 GO/FO ratio combined with the high K-rate and low walk rate suggest that Mendoza is cut from the same cloth as Wilfredo Boscan.
(7) Mike Bianucci – 22 yo 8th round draft pick from Auburn hit 316/386/535/921 in 31 games in Spokane. Based on his age, Bianucci should be in the Bakersfield outfield next year where his numbers could be off-the-charts. Assuming Smoak, Moreland, Smith, Beltre, and Bianucci start the year in Bakersfield, the Blaze could average 10 runs per game before promotions take their toll.
(8) Tim Smith – 2007 draftee with excellent combination of speed and power played 120 games in Clinton this year where he posted a 300/359/451/810 batting line to go along with 21 stolen bases. His 810 OPS in 2008 is third among qualifying hitters in the MWL and is consistent with the 779 OPS he posted in Spokane in 2007.
(9) Carlos Pimental – 18 yo RHP is the forgotten man in the Spokane rotation despite a 3.52 ERA in 61.1 innings. Pimental’s peripherals include 7K/9IP, 4BB/9IP, 203 BAA, and 1.24 WHIP. If he can push his K-rate back up to where it was in the rookie league in 2007 (12+K/9IP), and improve his control, Pimental could emerge as a Top10 pitcher in the Rangers system.
(10) Kyle O’Campo – 19 yo RHP got his first professional experience in 2008 after signing late as a 2007 draftee. In the AZ rookie league, O’Campo pitched 53 innings and produced a 3.29 ERA with 9.7 K/9IP, 3.3 BB/9IP, 249 BAA, and 1.27 WHIP. O’Campo finished fourth in strike outs in the AZL. O’Campo will likely join Robbie Ross as the anchors of the 2009 Spokane rotation.
9 recs |
26
comments
Comments
Well thought out
For me, Wieland, Telis, and maybe Pimentel are top 30 types (thought Pimentel would be a little shy of that), but even so I could see them emerge further in new levels.
I wish that his control would have improved more since last summer, but I still think that Gueris Grullon is a pretty intriguing arm.
If he’s healthy, Kennil Gomez probably emerges from the shadows of his highly touted Clinton rotation mates. I think that Bleier has had a bit of an underrated season as well.
Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return
by zywica on Aug 31, 2008 5:50 PM CDT 0 recs
Tim Smith
of all the guys there, that seems to be the guy that is most out of place. I would be a lot higher on him if his plate discipline didn’t seemingly collapse. At the start of the year, he was walking way more often, but just stopped all of a sudden. I’d like to know what was the reason for that.
by FirebatM3 on Aug 31, 2008 6:05 PM CDT 0 recs
An updraft in Bakersfield
I would agree that Smith (along with Bianucci and perhaps Tim Murphy) have the lowest ceilings of the players on the list. I included Smith and Bianucci because I expect them both to start in Bakersfield next year and I think that Bakersfield will be absolutely stacked with Smoak, Moreland, and Beltre likely to begin the year there. If this comes to pass, then everyone in that lineup will benefit from the havoc that those three will create and anyone with decent skills is likely to get caught in the updraft. The result will look similar to Frisco early this year (and Frisco in 2003 and Tulsa in 2001) where good hitters put up great numbers due to their association with a few great hitters.
by spurdynasty on
Aug 31, 2008 10:53 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Mitch Moreland/Justin Smoak...
Does anyone think that Justin Smoak and/or Mitch Moreland might start next year in Frisco? Ian Gac has been at High-A Ball for a while, and I’m guessing he stays there and that he will also be in the mix next year in Bakersfield.
Another guy I’d be interested in for next year is Ben Petralli. He finally signed this time after being drafted for the fifth consecutive year (I guess he realized scouts don’t recruit at the YMCA Men’s League). He was a 33rd rounder, although I believe some well-respected sports writer (I want to say Kevin Goldstein) had him around the 5th round. Also, the fact that his father, Geno, had a long Big League Career evokes the “It’s in the Genes”-Bias. Somebody pointed out that Ben will be 23.5 on Opening Day 2009, but if Ben starts in Bakersfield….
It's not my website, but you should visit Andy Seiler's First-Rate http://texasrangersanalyst.blogspot.com/
by YourNameHere on
Sep 1, 2008 9:36 AM CDT
up
0 recs
I agree on Petralli
I mean, guys don’t get drafted that many times without some talent. I think he could replicate what Chris Gradoville has done if he starts in Bakersfield—that is, start off kind of meh before picking it up and becoming a pretty decent hitter. Considering it may take him until age 25 or 26 to reach the majors, he may be competing with Pina for the “back-up of the future” role. But maybe he just really liked playing college ball, and he is a legit 5th round talent. I certainly don’t know. That was Sickels who thought he could go in the 5th, by the way. He took him in the 5th for his Twins Shadow Draft, and I remember he said Petralli was a guy he thought would go early.
by naropean on
Sep 1, 2008 10:28 AM CDT
up
0 recs
Well Done
a couple thoughts:
Tomas Telis: i love young prospects and watching them grow but DSL stats are really hard to gauge success on and bet future on it. .299/.374/.380/.754 is impressive if only for the plate discipline most LA kids dont have, but David Paisano is a good example of the hitting mirage that DSL can be. IIRC he hit .370 or sumpn in the DSL and it has never translated into much stateside. Dont flip out until it translates to a more advanced league, but your right to keep an eye on him.
Jose Vallejo was doing so well last year that if he was sliding under the radar it was at ones own peril as a prospect dork. although he wasnt being noticed by observers from afar, he was destroying and if you watched everyday it was tough not to be excited about the guy. Renny Osuna is my guy on that end this year but you made a great point that a guy like Clark Murphy shouldnt be ignored.
Another great point made is that there are some pitchers that no1 is paying attention to that are pretty good prospects and are doing well that will be next seasons guys worth keeping an eye on.
good stuff.
"I’m sure you’ve seen Kiker before but I’ll just reiterate that the kid is mean on the mound. He is only 5’10’’ but he is an intimidator. He looks like he hates hitters. He has the juice for pressure situations."
-Jason Parks on Jul 22, 2008 10:08 PM
by Jayslick on Aug 31, 2008 7:34 PM CDT 0 recs
Renny Osuna
Despite Osuna’s outstanding numbers, I can’t seem to get excited about the guy. He is absolutely devastating with the bat but it seems that he makes a bad defensive play at least once per week. I hope you are right about him and he joins Andrus, Vallejo, Duran, and Lemon as valuable middle infield prospects.
by spurdynasty on
Aug 31, 2008 10:56 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Neither Lemon or Osuna
seem to be in the seem defensive zip code as Andrus and Vallejo, so maybe they have more in common than you think….
by Goyogringo on
Sep 1, 2008 12:41 AM CDT
up
0 recs
Good idea
and good summary. I’d add Robbie Ross, who we’re not talking about at all for the obvious reason that he hasn’t pitched yet, but seems like a good bet to add excitement to our minors discussions next summer.
Without looking it up, it seemed like Telis didn’t catch too much, or at least half the times I bothered to look at DSL box scores he was DHing.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on Aug 31, 2008 9:45 PM CDT 0 recs
Robbie Ross
If Ross fails to be acknowledged as a Top30 prospect going into 2009, then I agree whole-heartedly that he should be on the list of guys who are likely to push their way into the upper echelons of Rangers prospects during 2009. Ross, along with Main, Kiker, and Perez, are the type of athletic, competitive pitchers that typically find ways to get the most out of themselves and their teammates.
by spurdynasty on
Aug 31, 2008 11:04 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Wieland's a special kid
Capable of bumping it up to 91-92 mph with room to add velocity (has a four-seam and two-seam fastball), two solid secondary pitches to build off of, good command and out-of-this-world makeup.
He’s going to be a big league pitcher.
by jamcadbury on Aug 31, 2008 11:03 PM CDT 0 recs
Wieland's starting assignment in 2009
Do you think that Wieland will get the Danks/Beavan/Poveda treatment and go straight to Clinton without spending time in Spokane? He seems to have the polish necessary to pitch in a full season league as a 19 year old.
by spurdynasty on
Aug 31, 2008 11:26 PM CDT
up
0 recs
I wouldn't rule out the possibility
If I were to wager a guess, he’ll probably start at Spokane in spite of his ridiculous pro debut. Really think he’s the kind of pitcher who moves faster than most HS hurlers, though, and it wouldn’t really surprise me if he logged meaningful innings at Clinton.
by jamcadbury on Sep 1, 2008 12:23 AM CDT 0 recs
Erm, that's meant to be a reply to spurdynasty
Just so this has some content, solid organizational review SD.
by jamcadbury on
Sep 1, 2008 12:23 AM CDT
up
0 recs
Chad Tracy
curious about other people’s opinions.
Do you think Chad Tracy is a top 30 guy right now? A top 20 guy?
by FirebatM3 on Sep 1, 2008 7:30 PM CDT 0 recs
Gotta be top 30
cause this Frisco performance has at least put him back on the map.
I notice a .400 BABIP and a relatively small sample, but what position do they have him playing?
"The question of how we came to be is a philosophical one." - 4HIM
by Chase Irwin on
Sep 1, 2008 7:44 PM CDT
up
0 recs
He's kocking
but not yet.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on
Sep 1, 2008 8:03 PM CDT
up
0 recs
Absolutely not, imo
A 23 year old slow footed LF who could only manage an .819 OPS in Bakersfield despite an unsustainable high BABIP of .346.
He’s absolutely not a real prospect at this point.
He’s maybe in my top 72, but there’s no way I could see putting him in my top 30.
Where’s the upside? Even if he does keep up his current pace at AA, is an .817 OPS LF really something to get all hot and bothered about?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on
Sep 2, 2008 12:21 AM CDT
up
0 recs
Oops, my bad
I was using bad (and old) stats. (I keep forgetting most sites don’t update their minor league stats that often.)
.832 at Bak.
.892 at Frisco in a small sample.
Still not impressed. He’s gonna have to slug long and slug hard for me to throw him back into the prospect fire.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on
Sep 2, 2008 12:25 AM CDT
up
0 recs
Yep
long way to go. He’s earned a longer look with the recent resurgence, but still a long way to go.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on
Sep 2, 2008 12:37 AM CDT
up
0 recs
However...
I’m not saying he’s in the Top-Tier of Rangers’ prospects, but I think using the full-season statistics from Bakersfield doesn’t give Chad Tracy the credit he deserves.
Here’s his 2008 Month-By-Month Breakdown at Bakersfield:
April: 107 PA .228/.327/.359
May 106 PA .263/.330/.337
June: 102 PA .326/.402/.528
July: 136 PA .292/.368/.542
August 25 PA .417/.440/.875
The idea of prospects is that they should develop, and looking at Tracy’s June, July and the small sample size that is August, you can see that he was showing signs of significant improvement.
It's not my website, but you should visit Andy Seiler's First-Rate http://texasrangersanalyst.blogspot.com/
by YourNameHere on
Sep 2, 2008 10:59 AM CDT
up
0 recs
I wonder
…what’s gotten into him? Watching him in Frisco he certainly looks more like the kind of hitter his current numbers indicate than this 240/330/350 guy from early in the season and the disappointing one from last season.
Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return
by zywica on
Sep 2, 2008 11:14 AM CDT
up
0 recs
Lasik?
Of course, that’s just a guess, but I do recall reading something months ago about a few Ranger prospects getting lasik.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley
by Rodney on
Sep 2, 2008 11:39 AM CDT
up
0 recs
A .800-.900 OPS
from 1B or LF isn’t sexy, but it’s above average. There’s something to be said for being a steady hitter who can put up numbers like that. At the very least, it has value for a lot of teams.
by FirebatM3 on
Sep 2, 2008 12:58 AM CDT
up
0 recs
True, but
I have serious doubts about his ability to do that at the ML level.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on
Sep 2, 2008 9:50 AM CDT
up
0 recs








