LSB Community Prospect Project: Mid-Season #25

by thedirkatron on Aug 5, 2008 5:51 AM CDT

After 215 votes, German Duran has won the right to be called the LSB Community #24 prospect!

The list so far:
1. 1b, Chris Davis
2. RHP, Neftali Feliz
3. RHP, Eric Hurley
4. SS, Elvis Andrus
5. C, Maximiliano Ramirez
6. 1b, Justin Smoak
7. RHP, Michael Main
8. RHP, Blake "C-Wun" Beavan
9. C, Taylor Teagarden
10. LHP Kasey Kiker
11. OF, Engel Beltre
12. LHP, Matt Harrison
13. OF, Julio Borbon
14. LHP, Derek Holland
15. RHP, Tommy Hunter
16. RHP, Wilmer Font
17. RHP, Neil Ramirez
18. LHP, Martin Perez
19. OF, John Mayberry, Jr.
20. RHP, Thomas Diamond
21. SS, Marcus Lemon
22. RHP, Warner Madrigal
23. 2b, Jose Vallejo
24. 2b, German Duran

Time to move on to the next vote.

The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.

And please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.

NOTE: There has been some speculation as to what the criteria are for this vote. Should guys who are currently in the bigs be involved in "prospect" discussions? For the sake of this exercise we're taking what the guys have done in the big leagues and using the BA prospect formula of 130 AB's or 50 ip. If a guy is under those limits, he's still a prospect right now, so he goes on the list. It's that simple.

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Comments

Robbie Ross

"There is nothing wrong with a good baseball argument, even if it gets a little personal now and then. If someone here get[s] their feelings hurt because of a blog post they really need to get a grip."

t ball

by booyahcaveman on Aug 5, 2008 6:31 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

+1

The Lil’ Lefty’s got mad crazy whack ceiling, yo.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Aug 5, 2008 6:58 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Timothy Murphey

I dont care if he is a reliever.

by tyd3311 on Aug 5, 2008 7:48 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Murphy

I think he is going to start next season.

Skills Showdown: Battle of the Texas Backstops

by jparks77 on Aug 5, 2008 8:29 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

even better.

Im a fan.

by tyd3311 on Aug 5, 2008 8:33 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Joe Ortiz

Do you know if they plan on him starting as well?

by tyd3311 on Aug 5, 2008 8:37 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

If you like Murphy

you might also like Richard Bleier. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff but he keeps the ball on the ground and his change is very effective against RH. I’ll have an interview posted with him tomorrow. Big sleeper for ‘09.

Skills Showdown: Battle of the Texas Backstops

by jparks77 on Aug 5, 2008 9:04 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

can you be a sleeper

as a 6th round Jr? You can certainly be a bust, just ask Andy Wilkins, last year’s 6th round HS pitcher….

by Goyogringo on Aug 5, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Yes

I consider him a sleeper despite his draft position. He pitched for Florida Gulf Coast University and not much is really known about what he throws and how he throws it. Because of this, I don’t think the fan base expects much of him.

Skills Showdown: Battle of the Texas Backstops

by jparks77 on Aug 5, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

now if you wanted to say

13th rounder CC INF E. Koncel is a sleeper, I would buy that. Anyone know anything about this kid other than he had great CC #s?

by Goyogringo on Aug 5, 2008 4:06 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I've actually said that before about Koncel

http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/6/23/557284/minors-6-23#6942894

Skills Showdown: Battle of the Texas Backstops

by jparks77 on Aug 5, 2008 4:25 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

right

but besides the offense (eveyone hits 400 in CC ) does anyone have a report on his defense? I think it would be quite a novelty for the rangers to draft a SS in the top 15 rounds who can play SS, so that is encouraging at least.

West, 2nd -07/Whittleman, 2nd -05 – HS shortstops turned 3b

So in the last 3 drafts, the Rangers have drafted 3 shortstops in the top 15 rounds: Lemon, 4th-06; Stoneburner, 9th-07 (bust); and Koncel, who might end up at third too, which he has played a bit this season). I guess they are strictly adhering to their draft board and hoping to hit on Latin American infielders but it does seem a bit weird.

by Goyogringo on Aug 5, 2008 5:44 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Stoneburner

It’s hard for a 9th rounder to be a bust, given that so few ever pan out. Stoneburner was 22 when he was drafted, so it wasn’t like he was an upside pick, anyway. He still has plenty of time to climb the ladder and be a nice organizational soldier type, at least. Over his last 10 games in Clinton, he’s hitting .290 with 2 doubles, a homer, a 3 SB. He’s not exactly screaming at the Rangers to release him or anything.

Same thing with Bobby Wilkins, mentioned below. You can’t write a guy off after just one year unless they’re absolutely terrible with absolutely no projection or chance for improvement.

by naropean on Aug 5, 2008 5:59 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Bobby?

Bust? How so?

It's filed under 'D'... for donut.

by NoNameOnCard on Aug 5, 2008 4:31 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

#s say so

ben outpitched by 30th round pick Henry. The skinny as I remember it is that he was not that impressive after he signed and didn’t make that much progress in instructionals and his performance this year seems to be more of the same. I expect the most from those selected in top 10 rounds, seems reasonable.

by Goyogringo on Aug 5, 2008 5:20 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

top 10 rounds

Check out who we drafted in the top ten rounds in the past and then maybe lower your expectations, especially for guys after the first 3 or 4 rounds.

by naropean on Aug 5, 2008 6:21 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I don't think it is unreasonable to expect your

picks from the top 10 rounds to make it to AAA. If they don’t, I have no problem calling them busts. Expectations for making the bigs is a whole ‘notha story. For Wilkins and Stoneburner (and Bradbury, the since released 2006 8th-rounder), I feel ok calling them busts based on their stats, both in their second years with 1 month to go. If I’m wrong, that’s great.

by Goyogringo on Aug 5, 2008 8:56 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think you're wrong.

I find it absurd to call a 6th round high school pick a bust when he’s got fewer than 40 inning under his belt professionally.

Even from his small sample size, you can tell that he’s obviously got a great breaking pitch – 0.129 BAA vs righties – but lacks an effective off-speed pitch to use against lefties – 0.542 BAA.

In spring training, he was experimenting with a new arm slot that greatly improved his curve ball. Having seen it up close, it’s no wonder righties are struggling against him. Lefties have 13 hits on 20 balls in play against him – fairly safe to say that they’ve gotten at least a little lucky.

Even if he only makes it to Spokane next year, I still think it will be ridiculous to call him a bust because he’ll still only be 19.

It's filed under 'D'... for donut.

by NoNameOnCard on Aug 6, 2008 1:58 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

bleir, murphy, weiland, boscan

i think all these guys will be very interesting names to watch in full season ball next year. I can definitely see some of these guys making a name for themselves next year

by blalock84 on Aug 5, 2008 4:10 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

As the president

of the Duran fan club I would just like to say thank you to everyone who made this possible.

by bushe on Aug 5, 2008 7:58 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Cristian Santana...

After finding all of those quotes from respected Baseball writers such as Jamey Newberg, Jason Cole, etc. talking about how much potential Cristian Santana has—and Santana not landing on the list—I’ve decided to take a different approach:

Does anybody on this board know of any quote by Gerry Fraley where he critizices Cristian Santana? If I could find one and post it here, I’m pretty certain that would clinch a spot for Santana in this Prospect Project.

Meet the M&M Gang: Mathis, Murray, Millwood, Mendoza, McCarthy. Watch these brave souls as they attempt such feats as brushing their teeth, combing their hair, and sneezing without suffering season-ending injuries!

by YourNameHere on Aug 5, 2008 8:43 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Me too

I’ve been voting on upside throughout this project.

Plaschke: Scioscia, the former Dodgers catcher, is the model manager who has created an atmosphere of winning.
Junior:It's that simple. Mike Scioscia brings a Glade Plug-In labeled "Winning™" into the clubhouse and everyone who breathes it in gains 15 points in average.

by TheBZA on Aug 5, 2008 9:01 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

hah

Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return

by zywica on Aug 5, 2008 10:22 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Well

you could find tons of positive quotes from Mike Hindman and Jamey Newberg regarding Michael Schlact, Jason Botts, and Drew Meyer as well – but that doesn’t mean they belong on this list.

BTW, I voted Santana this round, just saying…

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Aug 5, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

yep

by Goyogringo on Aug 5, 2008 4:16 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Exactly

what I thought when I read that.

"So you think the Celtics will beat Detroit? Hell will freeze over before that happens, mark my words." miles 5/20/08

by badradiorules on Aug 6, 2008 2:02 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

True, but...

Newberg, Hindman, and Lucas are the primary sources of information for the posters on the board regarding the Rangers’ minor league system. They’re the guys who are also talking to scouts, coaches, etc. A lot of what is written on the board regurgitates—or at least draws very heavily from—what they write.

Watching a player hit into a double play. A fan's delight. It's the only time in professional sports where you can sit on your couch, out of shape and drinking, and say, "Yes, I could have done better."

by YourNameHere on Aug 6, 2008 8:35 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

True

and with good reason. Very few of us ever see the guys in the lower minors at all, so we draw heavily from the scouting reports of those named plus Jason Cole, Jason Parks, etc. Hopefully we’re all weighing the comments of each, looking at the stats as well and coming up with our opinions as best we can. If you’ve been reading Jamey, Mike et al, for a while you get an idea of their tendencies. Then you can temper Mike’s enthusiasm which sometimes gets the better of him, for instance, in making your own opinion.

Time you enjoy wasting was not wasted.

by t ball on Aug 6, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Boscan

over Ross by a hair.

by mo on Aug 5, 2008 8:55 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

how cool is it

that the (subjectively determined, but still representative) 24th best prospect in our system was a contributing member of the major league team this year? i think that speaks quite nicely about what we have coming up.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Aug 5, 2008 8:57 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Total Agreement...

What’s interesting is that in many years, I think a lot of guys that would have landed in the 20-30 range we’re now in would have “buts” that would make them more marginal. Players like that, who will likely be in the 40-60 range this year, include:

Jonathan Greene (batting average might not be high enough)
Chad Tracy (former catcher might not hit quite enough to be an outfielder)
Ian Gac (four years to get out of A Ball)
Steve Murphy (Age is becoming an issue)
Manny Pina (Not sure even his defense behind the plate can compensate for the hitting)
Eric Fry (Concerns about his defense)
Tim Smith (Despite high OBP, the OPS might not be enough for a major league outfielder)
Ben Harrison (Injuries have taken the time likely needed to develop a quality Major Leaguer)
Glenn Swanson (same as Ben Harrison)

by YourNameHere on Aug 5, 2008 9:56 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Tough choice here

Not a real clear choice IMO, but I went with Santana. In the end, its just hard for me to vote a second rounder who hasn’t signed yet to be in the top 25 when there are more deserving guys around.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg1 on Aug 5, 2008 10:38 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

I'm still debating the merits of Beau Jones and Robbie Ross

I really like Beau Jones, but I think I’m gonna go with Ross here, since he seems to have the higher projected ceiling.

I’ll post my top 25 either in this thread or in a diary later (since I know ya’ll are waiting with bated breath for that, right?)... if this is the last poll, that is.

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Aug 5, 2008 11:13 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

ross

upside pick. kgoldstein said he liked him as much as any lefty in the draft…high praise

Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark

by knockoutking on Aug 5, 2008 11:30 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Goldstein's cred

He was the first on the Feliz as an ace bandwagon too.

Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.

by tricer on Aug 5, 2008 4:15 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

yuuup

Every pitch thrown to Josh Hamilton is recorded as an E1. -- clark

by knockoutking on Aug 5, 2008 5:22 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

yeah

knowing what he said makes me feel better about Kiker v2.0. After calling Feliz to be as great as he is, I can’t argue with him.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg1 on Aug 5, 2008 7:06 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Wilfredo...

i think if you arent paying attention to this kid, you’re gonna miss something. He’s gonna hit the radar real big next year and his stats this year are just down right incredible for an 18 yr old. Im really suprised alot of other people arent taking notice on this kid.

by blalock84 on Aug 5, 2008 1:15 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Boscan

I have been voting for him for a while now, but I guess that just shows how many great young prospects we have that this guy can get lost in the shuffle.

by brentash on Aug 5, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

i think

he’s the type of guy who’s just gonna slowly creep up this list over the next couple of years as he continually posts really solid numbers, he’s not the uber talented guy everyone drools over, but he’s got mad skills as a pitcher… Maybe the Marcus Lemon of the pitchers?

by blalock84 on Aug 5, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

SS

I think that Short Season results don’t mean as much as full season results. That’s why I don’t usually rate those players until way after everyone else on here. It seems like there are always several really impressive lines in SS ball much more so than the full season leagues. I think the sample size is one of the main caveats. Just look at Santana, he was a beast in short season and is dying the sub 700 OPS death in full season. SNTS applies very heavily in the SS player’s hype too.

by bushe on Aug 5, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think SS/AZL is a place for teaching and evaluation

so that they have a good off-season/instructionals and start of their 2nd year right.

by Goyogringo on Aug 5, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I agree

And think that taking stats from there and weighing them in gold is a folly

by bushe on Aug 5, 2008 8:38 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I've voted Boscan...

...since Vallejo went off the board.

by Adam J. Morris on Aug 5, 2008 4:33 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Boscan

he’s had my vote for a while, kinda bummed as much as he is dominating at his level and is losing to a kid the same age who hasnt pitched professionally at any level or signed for that matter.

"I’m sure you’ve seen Kiker before but I’ll just reiterate that the kid is mean on the mound. He is only 5’10’’ but he is an intimidator. He looks like he hates hitters. He has the juice for pressure situations."
-Jason Parks on Jul 22, 2008 10:08 PM

by Jayslick on Aug 5, 2008 4:40 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Boscan over Robbie Ross

Not saying you’re wrong, but may I ask why?

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Aug 5, 2008 5:48 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

what can we expect from robbie ross...

that would be better than what the 18 yr old Boscan is doing? They’re both 18, but one has shown a ton of promise at the pro level while one has shown alot of promise at the HS level. I think it just makes alot of sense to vote for Boscan over Ross just based on that alone.

by blalock84 on Aug 5, 2008 6:28 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Ross

Isn’t signed yet. His first appearance should be on a midwinter poll. Probably true of Smoak, as well, but it’s a little more certain that he’s in the fold.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Aug 5, 2008 6:27 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs