this one could be really bad for all of us in Houston.

Really, really bad.

As for the prediction of an “inch or two” in Houston, I’ll take the way over on that one.

…the Sharky of Meteorology?

updated model has it going right over katy, just great…

I saw one wild assed track that still showed it going into Lousiana. C’mon! Lets bomb NO again!

I’m on the north side in Spring. I’m thinking we should be ok…we’re definitely not leaving after the Rita fiasco.

Plus, my wife is due in 10 days…trekking across the state just isn’t going to work.

This ones gonna be a bad one I believe. We are on alert and supposed to be flying down there on Sunday to help any of the idiots who didn’t heed the evacuation warnings. Galveston may not be here when we wake up on Sunday if the storm surge is what they expect.

Not that AirJordan is interested in learning, but maybe others are.

“meteorologists don’t know jack”… Well, the National Hurricane Center forecast cone for landfall locations is a statement by meteorologists of the uncertainty in the forecast, ie what they believe they can’t tell you. It might not hit Houston. Houston might get less than an inch of rain. That would not mean the forecast was poor. In fact, that scenario is contained with the range of scenarios in the forecast.

What’s frustrating is that the precision of hurricane forecasts in most cases can’t reach a point that the likelihood is better than 80% for landfall at a location the size of a large city until it is too late to get everyone out of the way. Is that the meteorologists problem or an infrastructure problem?

Not offended. Not trying to flame back. Trying to bring up thoughtful information.

I’m a bit surprised only 7500 national guard are on call. Do they have more available? Seems like they may need double that number if Houston gets hit.

seems like most of the places around here are out of gas…i did see one place selling it for over 4 bucks per…

i heard that the further South you go, the less gas there is.

that is so troubling, and if it does hot cat 4 as they say it could, being 500 miles in dia. could make it a Texas Killer to be sure, lets all hope it weakens and peters out, because if it does what some are saying Texas could be hit very hard with many deaths and major property damage. i am in waco and have been since 1972 and i can’t remember a storm of this size heading for us in central texas, even the DFW area could take a hit, rain and tornadoes, the I35 hotels and motels in waco are already starting to fill up according to local news.

My DirecTV dish is secured pretty good to a pole outside…should I take it down or will it hold? I believe we’ll get 75+mph winds around here…

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Err on the side of caution, please.

Discussion…
infrared satellite depicts Hurricane Ike as a large sprawling category 2
system. Ike is currently moving over slightly cooler waters and
may not strengthen much if any before landfall. This would be good
news for much of the Texas coast as Ike will pose a significant
threat whether it strengthens or not. The official track has Ike
making landfall near Galveston early Saturday morning…then takes
it on a north northeast track to near Houston…Palestine…and
then Canton by Sunday morning. The remnants of Ike are then
carried off quickly into the mean flow as a middle-latitude cyclone
swings across the northern plains.


We have issued a tropical storm wind watch as well as a Flash
Flood Watch for portions of North Texas this weekend as Ike
impacts the area. Based on the size of the storm and our recent
experience with Gustav (which created significant gusty winds far
from its center) the tropical storm watch is large and runs from
Jacksboro…to Stephenville…to Killeen and eastward. These areas
could have sustained winds of 39 miles per hour or more with the highest
sustained winds expected along a line from Paris to Palestine…or
near the center of the storm. Also due to the size of the storm…
tropical storm force winds will be felt 6-9 hours earlier across our
southern counties as opposed to the northern portion of the watch.
A small area from Cameron to Palestine may even attain sustained
hurricane force winds for a short time Saturday morning…possibly
necessitating an upgrade to a Hurricane Watch or warning if these
winds appear likely.


The hurricane center guidance continues to nudge the storm track
as well as the threat for flooding a little farther east with each
run. Based on this trend we feel confident limiting the Flash
Flood Watch to areas east of a line from Sherman…to Kaufman…to
Cameron. Widespread two to four inches with isolated higher
amounts will be possible in these areas Saturday evening and
Sunday. The tropical tornado threat also continues to lessen as
the center of Ike stays to our east. This will continue to be an
isolated risk in our far eastern counties.

“All neighborhoods… and possibly entire coastal communities… will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped… some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage… with massive destruction of homes… including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.”

Do NOT let the relatively low sustained wind speed of 100 mph deceive you. This is an extremely dangerous hurricane. This storm is actually higher in terms of IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) than Katrina by a decent margin, with a potentially devastating storm surge that could conceivably breach the sea wall in Galveston.

Those of us further inland are not in such imminent danger, but this storm isn’t likely to lose much steam until it nears the NE TX border. DFW will most definitely feel the effects because of this storm’s width, but it shouldn’t become a life-threatening situation.

Galveston may be no more when we wake up Sunday morning….

Forecasters warn of deadly storm surge from Hurricane Ike
As Hurricane Ike bore down on the Texas coast late Thursday and early Friday, the National Weather Service was sounding the alarm over a potentially catastrophic impact, warning residents in low-lying coastal areas to get out or face “certain death” from the storm surge.
About 11 million people live in the potential impact zone, and almost 1 million have evacuated.
Ike is expected to come ashore late Friday or early Saturday and appears headed toward Houston. “I cannot overemphasize the danger that is facing us,” Gov. Rick Perry said.
Hurricane Ike is following a track similar to the 1900 Galveston hurricane that killed more than 6,000 people, the deadliest storm in U.S. history.
The U.S. weather center’s forecasters said Ike may strengthen to at least a major hurricane with Category 3 intensity, meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph, before it makes landfall. Other forecasters predict Ike may become a Category 4 storm, the second-strongest on the five-step Saffir- Simpson scale, packing winds from 131 to 155 mph.
——————————
YIKES !!!!!!!!!

‘Forecasters warn Ike may bring “certain death”’

Did John Kerry write this?

Houston TV streams – toggle the mute buttons to keep your sanity

Weeeelll, it’s floodin’ down in Texas..