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Newberg Report Top 20

Tiny by Jamey Newberg on

The latest installment of my weekly ranking of the top 20 prospects in the Rangers’ farm system has now been posted on the official Rangers website, www.texasrangers.com. 

Here’s a direct link to this week's column:

http://tinyurl.com/6ohssq

-- Jamey


Dirkatron, please forgive me.
Dirkatron, please forgive me.
Dirkatron, please forgive me.
Dirkatron, please forgive me.
Dirkatron, please forgive me.
Dirkatron, please forgive me.
Dirkatron, please forgive me.
Dirkatron, please forgive me.

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Dirkatron, please forgive me.

Screw him!

/Nellie

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley

by Rodney on Sep 11, 2008 12:43 PM CDT   0 recs

Last one this year? Offseason?

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Sep 11, 2008 12:52 PM CDT   0 recs

Monthly updates

To account for fall/winter ball performance (Holland would have moved up last October after what I saw of him at Instructs), as well as prospects lost or gained through trades or Rule 5.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 1:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Bravo and two questions

Great end-of-season prospect list, Jamey. It’s hard to argue with any of your Top19 selections and their placement.

Two questions for you;
(1) In your opinion, what is the likelihood that Poveda would get claimed in the Rule 5 draft if he is not added to the 40 man roster? If you were the Rangers’ GM, would you add him to the 40?
(2) Should Nelson Cruz remain on the 40 man roster this winter?

by spurdynasty on Sep 11, 2008 1:01 PM CDT   0 recs

Thanks.

(1) Very tough call. Easier to answer if we load up and trade some 40-man guys for a starting pitcher, freeing up some room. Poveda is this winter’s Boggs.

(2) Yes.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 1:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Poveda

I can’t believe they would consider leaving Poveda off of the 40, especially while adding JMJ and Vallejo and carrying Reinecker and White. I think that’s a decision that could really come back to bite them.

--Brian

by BCanfield on Sep 12, 2008 9:20 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

if they let him go it will come back, BUT i also don’t think another team and afford to carry poveda on the 25man all year.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 12, 2008 9:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Gamble

That’s a gamble I’d rather not take. Protect the guy. We’ll have plenty of room to carry him next year. The year after, though, will be a tougher proposition….

What's the rumpus?

by Hypo-Luxa on Sep 12, 2008 10:48 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

40 man room

i don’t know, adam did a post about this not long ago and there isn’t a ton of room left on the 40 even assuming they dont bring back any of the free agents.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 12, 2008 10:52 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

There is a good few guys on the 40 man though

that aren’t likely to be picked up by another team nor are likely to bite this team in the ass as much as if they let Poveda go. Would you trade Murray, Rheinecker, or Littleton for Poveda?

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg1 on Sep 12, 2008 11:09 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Not a ton

I count 37 on the 40 msn if you protect JMJ, Poveda and let guys like Vazquez, Wright, Bradley go. That leaves very few spots for acquiring FA’s, but if FA’s are acquired that means they have to replace someone on the field or on the mound, which will cause some DFA’s, releases, etc.

To me Poveda is a promising arm and one you can’t take that gamble on. I really do believe that there will be an Oakland/Nats/KC who will take a flyer on Omar and hide him in the pen.

What's the rumpus?

by Hypo-Luxa on Sep 12, 2008 11:12 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Are you counting the guys on the 60 day DL who have to come off in the offseason?

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 12, 2008 1:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's one of the reasons I really think they need to...

…take a long, hard look at Metcalf. I really don’t think he is the kind of player that you should protect at the risk of losing an arm like Poveda.

Physician: Primum non nocere

Batter: First, make no out

by Chad Crudup on Sep 12, 2008 1:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

#20 is for marketing the under-appreciated, right?

As such, I haven’t been holding your feet to the fire on #20. I like Laughter as much as the next guy and have been impressed by his performance this year (except the K’s), but you have to admit that there are probably 20 guys in teh Rangers system who are more worthy of the #20 slot.

by spurdynasty on Sep 11, 2008 1:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I do not admit that.

Since this was basically a season-ender, I actually chose a number 20 and deleted the rotating “of the week” label. Laughter is #20 for me.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 1:31 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Really?

I admit to having only seen Laughter and Garr one time each, but I think Garr is more likely to stick in the Rangers bullpen. In fact, I would rate Laughter third among Frisco’s three bullpen arms (behind Jones as well). What has Laughter shown you that gets your prospect juices flowing?

by spurdynasty on Sep 11, 2008 1:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's intangible.

There’s something about Laughter that makes me think that, three years from now, he could hold down the 7th or maybe 8th inning for a very good team.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 1:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You've certainly seen Laughter more than I

I guess I’ll have to bump him up a few notches on my watch list.

by spurdynasty on Sep 11, 2008 1:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

laughter

he’s good, though admittedly i wouldn’t put him top 20.
when he’s on his game the guy can be un-hittable, but i’ve seen him blow up pretty bad too.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 11, 2008 2:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

the idea that anyone is better than lemon makes you errr laugh

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 11, 2008 2:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

heh, I'm not that obsessed

I don’t even have him in my top 10. I just think it’s borderline ludicrous to hate him like a fat girl hates gym class the way Newberg does.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 3:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Distribution of pitching prospects

What I really like about this list of prospects is that the pitching prospects ar spread up and down the system. Every minor league rotation at the beginning of 2009 is likely to have at least two compelling prospects:
AAA = Hunter + Hurley or Harrison
AA = Holland + Feliz + Kiker + Poveda
A+ = Main + Beavan
A = Boscan + Perez + Ramirez
A- = Font + Ross

Plus Diamond and Gomez and Pimental and Weiland and Castillo and …

by spurdynasty on Sep 11, 2008 1:26 PM CDT   0 recs

...and...

Ocampo and T.Murphy and B.Jones and . . .

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 1:29 PM CDT   0 recs

Speaking of Murphy

Is it just me, or does his left-handed stuff look a lot like Matt Harrison’s?

by spurdynasty on Sep 11, 2008 1:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I really like Murphy, his delivery is so deceptive

do you see him more as a starter or a reliever?

"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008

by Seth. on Sep 11, 2008 5:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well

The problem with Lemon is that he’s already 20 and in the Cal League, and, there is the fact that all he does is hit and walk at a premium defensive position.

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."
"Maybe congress should take more vacations, whenever these people leave town, things just seem to get better..." - Jay Leno

by Longhorn on Sep 11, 2008 2:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yep nothing to see here folks...

…huge bust.

Physician: Primum non nocere

Batter: First, make no out

by Chad Crudup on Sep 11, 2008 3:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Already 20?

That’s still young for high A ball.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Sep 11, 2008 3:31 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think he was being facetious...

…I know I was when I responded. L’il Chet is progressing just fine and will someday make an impact at the ML level. Here or elsewhere.

Physician: Primum non nocere

Batter: First, make no out

by Chad Crudup on Sep 11, 2008 3:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you are correct

i thought that was obvious from atleast the 2nd part of that statement. But yeah, if it was possible to be a bigger fan of Lemon than the tron is…that person would be me.

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."
"Maybe congress should take more vacations, whenever these people leave town, things just seem to get better..." - Jay Leno

by Longhorn on Sep 11, 2008 3:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Lemon

What is it about him that fires you up?

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 3:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He can hit, get on base, doesn’t strike out much (especially this year). I think he can still be an above average SS. I know he’s had a lot of errors this year, but, for example, Jeter at almost the same developmental level had a 50+ error season in the minors. I know people think he’s a 2B. I don’t buy it, and I’m not going to give up on him at SS at 20 just yet. He has improved a lot since last year. His age is a definite plus. I dunno, with all those characteristics and probable upside, I would think he would atleast be in the top 20 prospects for the Rangers.

That’s just my opinion.

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."
"Maybe congress should take more vacations, whenever these people leave town, things just seem to get better..." - Jay Leno

by Longhorn on Sep 11, 2008 4:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

when Tug Hulett

was in A+, he was 23, and his first time to hit as well as Lemon this year was this year in AAA Tacoma. The comparison is a stupid one.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 11, 2008 4:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Stupid?

Who’s the better prospect?

Mitch Moreland?

Or Miguel Alfonzo?

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 4:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes

stupid. Quite stupid in fact.

Given that all we talk about with guys like Font and Andrus are how young they are and how much potential they have, why is there a double standard when it comes to Lemon? If Lemon was a 23 year old when he put up the number that he did in A+, you’d see a lot less people excited about him. If he was a guy that was drafted in round 14, and not a guy that was drafted in the 4th round and took a 1 million dollar bonus to sign, I’m sure we’d be a lot less psyched. If he’s a 5-10 guy that never hit for much power and never projected to hit for much, yeah, there’d be a lot less excitement about him.

Right now, he’s a guy who is still 20 years old and will be 20 when he hits AA next year. Not only that, but he’s a guy that has a 9 to 13% K to BB and have room to fill out. So yeah, when all the numbers tell me he’s a good prospect, I’m going to treat him as a good prospect, regardless of how many times I saw him.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 11, 2008 4:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

FirebatM3

Where does Lemon sit for you in your own personal top 10 or 20 or 30?

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 4:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

15 or so

above guys like Laughter, Vallejo, et all, below guys like Beltre.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 11, 2008 4:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Lemon above Vallejo?

Wow. OK.

No need to keep going down this road.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 4:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

lemon over vallejo

thats just crazy talk

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 11, 2008 4:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i don't think it's fair to say 'crazy talk'

when it comes to MINOR league prospects. A difference of opinion, but certainly not ‘crazy’…

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."
"Maybe congress should take more vacations, whenever these people leave town, things just seem to get better..." - Jay Leno

by Longhorn on Sep 11, 2008 4:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

prospects

i suppose i just value superior defense and speed more…. ive seen a lot of vallejo and i really just dont see how anyone would value lemon more.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 11, 2008 6:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Do you think he'll hit enough at the big league level?

And do you think his defense would carry over to SS or CF?

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 7:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

defense

why would i care about his defense at ss or cf? he has great d at 2b no real reason to move him from there. realistically he’ll break in with another team as part of a trade.

i think his bat will get him by in the bigs, but he wont hit for high avg or anything. at least from what ive seen.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 11, 2008 7:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Because if his speed and defensive tools are really that good maybe he could play those positions too

and since we are pretty entrenched at 2b at the big level I thought it was a valid question.

Just wondering what your thoughts were on the subject of him maybe getting Nivared or reverse-Kinslered or Utilified.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 10:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

well, i think the teams pretty set at cf too with hamilton and borbon, i really dont see vallejo breaking in with texas anyway.
with his range and speed i’m sure he’d be capable of handling ss or cf.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 12, 2008 8:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hamilton's not really a CF'er, imo, and that's only going to get worse as he gets further away from his physical prime

and Borbon, as much as I love to love on him in an effort to make Brian Thomas’ head explode, is far from a sure thing.

I’d actually say it’s far more likely he breaks in with us as a Figgins/Freel-type super utility guy than gets traded.

Since the issue of “you have to see the guy to fully appreciate him” has been raised in this thread, I was merely trying to get the opinion of someone who had apparently seen him more than a few times.

Sorry if I insulted and/or confused you.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 12, 2008 1:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

not insulted (and why would i be you didnt throw out your normal reportee of insults) , guess was a little perplexed as to why you would want to move him off 2nd. I’m not educated enough in the scoutly arts to say what other positions he could adequately play really.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 12, 2008 1:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yah, okay

Whatever.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 12, 2008 1:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Lemon v Vallejo

Vallejo’s the superior defender, Lemon the better bat.

What are the odds Vallejo raises his OBP compared to the odds Lemon improves his D?

Obviously, age is a factor.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Sep 11, 2008 4:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Does....

…improving defense includes improving your arm strength?

Also, I’ll take Vallejo’s 42 of 46 (91) in SB attempts over Lemon’s 12 of 20 (60).

But you’ll probably say that will improve with age too.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 4:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Stop being all defensive

You’re not MJH so you can cut it with the scornful sarcastic indignation, please.

I love Lil’ Lemon, but it’s not like I actually think you’re crazy or dumb for not thinking he’s one of our top 20 guys right now.

But I do genuinely wonder what makes you think that Vallejo is so much better than Lemon that even the idea that someone could consider Lemon a better prospect than Vallejo makes you laugh your haughty laugh of prospecty omnipotence. Is it really that crazy?

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 5:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't see

how anyone who has watched Vallejo and Lemon play could ever come to that conclusion.

And for those who are purely stats-based, is it really true that Lemon has demonstrated having the better bat, as was suggested a couple posts up?

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 5:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes

Better in every traditional + peripheral stat save for ISOP, and Vallejo’s ISOP collapsed after he made AA, when a lot of his HR became doubles.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 11, 2008 5:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ISOP

I stand no chance if we’re going to resort to acronyms. I believe in the numbers to an extent, but I’m more of a scouting guy.

Maybe I’m wrong about Lemon, but I just don’t see it.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 5:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well...

Lemon was better this year in Bak despite being 21 months younger and he was better last year in Clinton despite being 21 months younger. I don’t have any more proof than that, though.

If you want to argue that Vallejo is a better hitter than Lemon, that’s fine. But you’re really being an ass today. We get that you’re riding high atop your mountain of awesome cause you’ve seen them play, but why not try to explain it to us instead of laughing it off and essentially calling those of us who question you stupid?

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 5:09 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's just weird.

Pretty sure if everyone’s name were removed from their posts, even in this thread, I’d fall far lower on the ass/haughty-laugh-of-prospecty-omnipotence scale than at least 3 or 4 of you.

But whatever.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 5:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich

by knockoutking on Sep 11, 2008 5:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

re:
Lemon above Vallejo?

Wow. OK.

No need to keep going down this road.

You don’t think that sort of “Wait, you actually think that!? LOL! You’re not worth talking to you if even deign to think THAT!” kind of argument is haughty?

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 5:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

also

I’m trying to figure out why he would say ‘near-UT-ness’.

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."
"Maybe congress should take more vacations, whenever these people leave town, things just seem to get better..." - Jay Leno

by Longhorn on Sep 11, 2008 5:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

honestly

im not sure many people who typically put out ranking lists would place lemon higher than vallejo

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Sep 11, 2008 6:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

whatever

All I know is that Lemon walked more, struck out less, hit more balls harder, had a better XBH% all the while batting 1st while Vallejo saw his power completely collapse in AA once the Cal League homers became doubles or balls at the track.

The SB% is obviously worrying, but it’s not like guys don’t improve. Carlos Beltran was 11-18 as a 21 year old in A+, Ian Kinsler’s SB% was horrid too, so was Elvis Andrus during his class A days.

But whatever, sorry for upsetting you, I know you’re kind of a big deal

by FirebatM3 on Sep 11, 2008 5:04 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Geez.

Lemon has struck out less. Yes, in 112 fewer at-bats. If he had as many AB as Vallejo, he’d have 89 strikeouts to Vallejo’s 91.

And I don’t guess the Cal League impacted Lemon’s XBH total?

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 5:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No

they actualyl didn’t, the Cal League as a league in general raises the HR totals, but there’s very little impact on XBH otherwise. If anythign, it depresses 2B and 3B totals.

And I used Vallejo’s Bakersfield Stats instead of all his stats, because it’s the purest comparison we could make

by FirebatM3 on Sep 11, 2008 5:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Cool.

You win. I have no comeback.

Too bad I’m not doing a top 20 next week, because now Vallejo is going to remain on the Lemon-less list for a good while. Embarrassing.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 5:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

XBH?

I stand no chance if we’re going to resort to acronyms. I believe in the numbers to an extent, but I’m more of a scouting guy.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 5:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And by the way

…I’m hardly upset. I feel bad for dragging Adam’s board into this silly food fight.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 5:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Why? It's a very reasonable argument.

These Lemon vs. Vallejo kinds of debates are what baseball boards are made for, imo.

You should feel bad for being all snarky and bringing nothing to the argument other than your sense that you’re right and we’re all crazy for being so very very wrong.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 5:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i really dont think hes been snarky at all...

"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich

by knockoutking on Sep 11, 2008 5:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Snarky?

Good grief. Out.

by Jamey Newberg on Sep 11, 2008 5:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Bah, sorry if I offended

Obviously I took umbrage with your tone but I didn’t mean to make you feel like you needed to take your ball and go home.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 11, 2008 5:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

JN

have you seen Lemon play in person? If so, did you watch him play this year in Bakersfield?

"Popularity is fleeting. Principles are forever."
"Maybe congress should take more vacations, whenever these people leave town, things just seem to get better..." - Jay Leno

by Longhorn on Sep 11, 2008 5:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, this is embarrassing

…since I said I was out. But that’s a valid question since I raised the point myself.

I haven’t