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Out-of-the-Box Thought on 3B for '09

This has been hashed out in several forums.  Sorry I'm late for the party, but had this brainstorm recently.

'09 is a contract year for Adrian Beltre.  It is also a contract year for Padilla, and could be one for Millwood.  All three will paid roughly the same amount next season.

Both teams are obviously building for the future, and none of these guys will be part of that future.

So the proposal is either Millwood or Padilla for Beltre straight-up.

What is in it for Texas? 

  1. A right-handed bat to hit in the middle of the line-up
  2. A good defensive player at 3B
  3. Chris Davis back to 1B
  4. No pushing MY to 3B
  5. No rushing Andrus to the parent club

What is in it for Seattle?

  1. An established pitcher to replace Bedard
  2. Clears a spot for Matt Tuiasosopo
  3. ????

This idea is not well thought-out or heavily researched.  Just a thought for discussion.

0 recs  |  Comment 34 comments

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Honestly

I like the name, I just dont think the mariners would give that any thought at all.

the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is

by DSheppard on Sep 12, 2008 11:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think they might want more...

than just Padilla or Millwood. One idea would be Laird and Padilla/Millwood for Beltre and another player. The Mariners need a catcher and Johjima has just nothing short of horrific this season and there have been some rumblings of the Mariners moving Clement to first.

by stephen86 on Sep 13, 2008 12:08 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

With Johjima's contract status...

don’t they pretty much have to limp along with him? Laird’s not going to help them any.

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on Sep 13, 2008 12:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

you are probably right. They have, though, played Clement and Johnson at catcher a bit this year. Laird would probably not be of much use to them.

by stephen86 on Sep 13, 2008 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beltre

Meh. We can do better things with our trading chips than accquire him.

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Sep 13, 2008 12:18 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

And by the way

Pushing MY to 3B is something we want to do.

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Sep 13, 2008 12:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree,

but it seemed the concensus was in ’10 not ’09.

Out of curiosity, what do you think Millwood or Padilla could bring that would impact the team next season?

by T Coleman on Sep 13, 2008 12:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully Padilla at least could bring back some some young pitching

Millwood, I’m not so sure he has very much value right now.

A Lonestar in California

We need to hire Chuck Norris to kick the ass of any Ranger fan caught booing one of our young pitchers at the RBiA.

by lonestarJon on Sep 13, 2008 3:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

first of all the Mariners would never ever do that

for millwood: you are talking about an overpaid, mid-30s, 5+ ERA, and extremely injury prone for a gold-glove, 20 HRs, 35 Doubles, 30 year old
for padilla: same except hes a little younger and a little less injury prone

and second, im not sure i want the Rangers to be adding hitters

"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008

by Seth. on Sep 13, 2008 12:33 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Millwood 4.18 FIP, which he'd probably outperform in the pitcher's haven of Seattle

Well, assuming it’s still a pitcher’s haven, I haven’t kept up to well with park effects, but it has that reputation.

Millwood is better than people seem to give him credit for. He has real legit value.

Padzilla on the other hand…

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 13, 2008 1:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you that Millwood has more value than he gets credit for

but i dont think people in the front office look at saber metrics seriously, as for Padilla i would rather have him start a game in which we must win rather than Millwood.

"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008

by Seth. on Sep 13, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

idk, ERA, Walks, Strikeouts, WHIP

"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008

by Seth. on Sep 13, 2008 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

"The question of how we came to be is a philosophical one." - 4HIM

by Chase Irwin on Sep 14, 2008 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

im just guessing, what DO they look at?

"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008

by Seth. on Sep 14, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My guess?

Everything.

With so much money on the line with these guys you’d hope they’d literally look at every single piece of information they could get their grubby little hands on.

And as for FIP specifically, it basically just builds an expected ERA based on a pitchers walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run rate. The “three true outcomes” so to speak. In general, FIP works a lot better than a stat like ERA, because it removes a lot of the noise from results that pitcher’s don’t have a lot of control over. So if they look at a guys’ K, BB and HR-rates, they’re basically looking at his FIP, just maybe not in that exact form. It’s by no means a perfect stat, but it’s fairly good at showing if a pitcher’s ERA has been largely influenced by “luck” (or defense) and therefore give you a little better idea of what to expect from them going forward, imo.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 14, 2008 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i thought FIP uses line drives, grounders, and fly balls mainly

to take away how fielding influences pitching

"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008

by Seth. on Sep 14, 2008 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

FIP

From THT’s glossary:

Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.

Perhaps you’re thinking of tRA? I’ve been told by people smarter than me that it is a much better stat, but I haven’t put in the time to fully research it so I’m hesitant to quote it in discussions such as this.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 14, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pass...

I wouldn’t give up Padilla for Beltre and if I’m dealing Millwood it’s to dump his salary.

It would be nice to have Beltre’s defense at 3rd, but I can’t see the M’s doing either deal anyway.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 13, 2008 12:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It's all stuff...

I just feel like Padilla has a much better arsenal than Millwood.

Both have had their issues with injuries, bu it just seems like Millwood is a lot more inconsistant than he should be when healthy. He goes out and has a very good August and then gets shelled by a bad M’s September lineup. Everyone is entitled to have a bad start, but Millwood has had far more than he should. Looking at their stats again they are very similar. Millwood has given up a lot more hits so his WHIP is higher as is his ERA, but Padilla has walked a few more guys and given up 25 bombs. I suppose they are closer than I think but Millwood has just rubbed me the wrong way the last couple years.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 13, 2008 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Understandable sentimonies

I feel the exact opposite though. I’ve grown weary of Padzilla’s “look at me I have dominating stuff today and I’m making everyone look silly… oh, wait, I jut blew up all of the sudden while you were in the bathroom and now we’re down 6 runs, sorry” routine.

I’ll take Millwood over Padzilla if they’re both healthy. I think Millwood has the better chance to throw a quality start on any given night and I also think he’s considerably less high-strung and crazy, which is nice.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 13, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll give you the...

“less high-strung and crazy” part. I completely agree with that.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 13, 2008 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about Mark Reynolds...

of the D-Backs…He’s a high strikeout guy, but a righty with power that hits lefties and would fit nicely in the 6 or 7 hole behind our lefties. A lot of errors this year, but he has put up decent defensive numbers previously, and is only 25. I think he’s signed a one-year contract at the beginning of the season. The D-backs might be shuffling some offensive pieces this offseason.

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.

by tin_cup on Sep 13, 2008 12:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i dont think they would do it, for a few reasons

a) even if it made some semblance of sense, its hard (for the Ms) to sell that kind of move to fans without looking like youre already folding the tent for 09. i think fans can accept rebuilding efforts, but only when theyre predicated on exciting young players, not logistical veteran swaps.

b) i dont have the exact facts in front of me, but my guess is beltre has a strong shot to be a type A, if not a lock while milwood/padilla would seem be type Bs at best. So if they are going to trade beltre, either in the winter or in july, they would want to acquire young talent comparable to 1st round picks.

c) both players have limited no trade clauses. im not sure if either team is on the other’s block list, but if it is it seems like a trade that would be vetoed.

I do like Beltre though and Ive been saying for a while now he’d be a nice acquisition to fill our void at 3rd for the short term. But I think this will be a big trade for the Ms, if they do it, and perhaps the first major move for their new GM and I dont think they will settle for less than quality young ML or near ML ready talent.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Sep 13, 2008 8:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Points

I really couldn’t come up with a lot of reasons as to why Seattle would be highly interested. I’m not even sure if JD would be interested.

by T Coleman on Sep 13, 2008 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What is in it for Seattle?

1. ??
2. ??
3. ??

"The question of how we came to be is a philosophical one." - 4HIM

by Chase Irwin on Sep 13, 2008 10:46 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Those were my answers,

you were suppose to fill-in the question marks. That is why it is called a brainstorm. It is just a thought, sometimes not having any merit, to spurn discussion and better ideas.

by T Coleman on Sep 13, 2008 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No point in writing a trade proposal

if one side has nothing to gain.

"The question of how we came to be is a philosophical one." - 4HIM

by Chase Irwin on Sep 13, 2008 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not Davis

at 3rd base? He seems to have been doing well over there. Couldn’t he grow into it? The Rangers have the 3rd base defensive guru in Washington… has there been a gold glover since he left? I would rather have a great young 3rd base masher than at 1 base. Plus if Blalock moves over to 1B, there is your one year gap fill. At worst, then you shift everyone in 2010. My thoughts on the trade. The Rangers need those arms more than they need a stop gap fill in at 3rd. This team goes through WAY to many pitchers each summer than to decrease their pool for this reason.

"Purity of heart is to will one thing" - Kierkegaard

by outofnace on Sep 13, 2008 1:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

andrus

What happens if in 60 spring training at bats Elvis Andrus hits around .350 and steals some bases while playing an amazing short stop?

by trgordon723 on Sep 13, 2008 4:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nothing.

We’ve made this mistake before.

"The question of how we came to be is a philosophical one." - 4HIM

by Chase Irwin on Sep 13, 2008 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley

by Rodney on Sep 14, 2008 6:25 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

Hilarious...rec.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 14, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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