Beware September Superstars

Nippert, Harrison, Cruz, and Teagarden have become the flavors of the month for the Rangers. In his last two starts, Nippert has pitched 12 innings, struck out 11, walked 4, and given up just 1 run.  In his last 6 starts, Harrison has pitched 39 innings, striking out 27 while compiling an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.23.  In September, Teagarden has a 417 avg with 3 2B and 4 HR in 24 ABs while Cruz has a 324 BA with 3 HR and 2 2B in 37 ABs.

And while I want to believe that the recent performances of these four players are indicative of future greatness, I am haunted by the late season successes and subsequent failures of previous Rangers prospects/reclamation projects in whom I similarly wanted to believe.

In 2006, Robinson Tejeda was called up to the Rangers in mid-August and was allowed to audition for a spot in the 2007 rotation.  Between August 19th and October 1st, Tejeda compiled a 4-2 record in 9 starts.  He pitched 54.1 innings, struck out 25, walked 15, and posted an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of 1.34.  2007 started promisingly enough but control problems led to a demotion from which he never recovered.

On August 26, 2005, Kam Loe started the 1st of an 8-game trial as a member of the Rangers rotation.  Loe pitched 46.2 innings, struck out 17, walked 16, won 4, lost 2, and produced an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.27.  I am convinced that Loe's impressive 2005 finish coupled with Chris Young's relatively unimpressive run during the same period led the Rangers to decide that Loe was a better candidate for the 2006 rotation.  The result?  Young was part of the 2005 San Diego trade that stands as JD's worst move as Rangers' GM. 

Based on a radio interview during spring training this year, I think that JD has learned the folly in evaluating players based on their performances in September.  When asked about David Murphy's likely place on the Rangers 2008 active roster, JD replied that given the line-ups and motivation levels of opponents, he placed significantly less emphasis on the performances of his own players in games played in September and March.   

Like many of you, I want to believe that Nippert's bullpen session two weeks ago has converted him from a fringe long reliever into a key member of future Rangers rotations.  I also want to believe that Harrison will make us fondly recall the days when Kenny Rogers anchored the staff.  And it would be great if both of these guys were throwing baseballs to a GG-caliber catcher whose major league hitting numbers exceeded those that he posted in the minors.  But the more realistic side of me knows that Nippert could easily go the way of Tejeda, Harrison could be a year or two away from being a reliable major league starter, and Teagarden's K-rate could prevent him from being anything more than a good defensive catcher who holds down the #9 spot in the line-up. 

You'll note that Cruz failed to make the previous paragraph.  The reason for that is that I agree with those of you who believe that Cruz is poised for an outstanding 2009 season.  The reasons for my optimism are two-fold:

(1) Cruz's plate discipline has taken an undeniable step forward in 2008 and major league pitchers are now being forced to throw him strikes.  Need proof?  Check out his K/BB numbers in Septembers past and present:

2006 - 18K/5BB in 90 AB;  2007 - 17K/1BB in 55 AB;  2008 - 6K/9BB in 37 AB

(2) Cruz's numbers against teams preparing for the playoffs have been outstanding (375 BA in 7 games vs LAAA and BOS), which suggests that his 2008 finish is not a mirage produced by him facing AAA and AAAA pitchers who are auditioning for spots on their team's 2009 pitching staffs.