2008 All-Star Game participants Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, Joakim Soria, Justin Duchscherer, George Sherrill, Dioner Navarro, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Dempster, and Ryan Ludwick were all acquired via the Rule 5 draft, minor trades, or as minor league free-agents prior to becoming significant contributors to their respective teams.  Acquiring relatively inexpensive talent without giving up bonafide prospects can be the difference between contending and pretending for teams like the Rangers that don’t have the budget to bring in big name free agents on a yearly basis. 

Acquiring talented but unappreciated/under-valued players during the off-season typically requires that a team have three things:
(1) space on their 40-man roster,
(2) adequate talent in their farm system to satisfy the needs of another team, and
(3) a GM who is anxious to improve the talent-level of his 40-man roster. 
In my opinion, the Rangers should satisfy these three criteria in the upcoming months.

Space on the 40-Man Roster
Although the talent level for the Rangers is higher now than at any time since the late 90’s, there is clearly room to improve the back end of the 40 man roster.  As things currently stand, the Rangers will end the 2008 season with 45 players on their 40 man roster.  Wright, Bradley, Jennings, and Vasquez will be free agents at the end of the season and will come off the 40 until they sign a major league contract with the Rangers or agree to salary arbitration.  In my opinion, there are eight players currently on the 40-man roster who are candidates to be cut or designated for assignment.  The players in the order that I think they should be waived are:
(1) Gordon – Last on, first off.  The 30 yo, recently converted pitcher is a good story but not worthy of a spot on the Ranger’s off-season 40 man roster.
(2) Catalanotto – During the last two months, Cat has started fewer than two games per week.  The 2009 Rangers might be slightly better with Cat on their bench, but for the long-term, the Rangers would benefit from giving Cat’s ABs to a younger player.  Ideal case would be a trade to a team willing to take on his salary.
(3) White – A nice AAA season (54 IP, 3.54 ERA, 10.6K/9IP, 1.38 WHIP) has been cancelled out by a miserable run in the Rangers bullpen (5 App, 1.2 IP, 21.60 ERA).
(4) Rheinecker – A LOOGY who just lost a season due to injury.
(5) Metcalf – A good glove/light bat (253/300/370/670) tag works for SS but not 3B.
(6) Littleton – The right-hander did nothing in 2008 (4.01 ERA, 9K/9IP, 1.37 WHIP) to distinguish himself from ~100 other AAA relievers.
(7) Loe – Despite a good run in the major league bullpen (3.14 ERA in 28.2 innings), the right-hander’s mediocre AAA season (5.59 ERA) and lack of prolonged major league success make him expendable.
(8) Murray – An oft-injured pitcher with good, but not great stuff 

Waiving Cat, White, and Gordon (I think) would result in the players becoming free agents.  The other five players would likely pass through waivers unclaimed, allowing the Rangers to designate them for assignment.  Re-signing Milton Bradley and assigning Mayberry, Vallejo, and Poveda to the 40 would bring the Rangers roster to 37.  That leaves space for three new players on the Rangers 40 man roster.  If additional space is needed, then Mathis, Gabbard, and Arias could likely be traded in a deal or two for prospects who are not eligible for thr Rule 5 draft.  There has been much made of potential off-season trades of a catcher and an outfielder, but I think it likely that the return in such a trade would include a major league player, thus there would be not net change in the 40-man roster.

Rangers Trade Candidates
Although the Rule 5 draft and the pool of minor league free agents can be a nice source of “free” minor league talent, acquiring players placed on waivers or players that are specifically targeted by a team typically requires at least a minor trade. The availability and quality of the player that is targeted will naturally dictate if and whom the Rangers would have to trade.  In my opinion, the list of expendable players in the Rangers organization includes:

Marcus Lemon – Compelling SS/2B bat is behind Andrus, Duran, Arias, and Vallejo on the Rangers prospect list.
Kennil Gomez – Great 2008 numbers, but he is not among the Rangers Top10 pitching prospects.
Joaquin Arias – Near-ready prospect is likely no higher than third on the list of SS and utility infielders for the Rangers.
John Mayberry – Power-hitting prospect is likely no higher than fifth on the Rangers COF depth chart behind Hamilton, Byrd, Murphy, Cruz, and Boggs.
Andrew Laughter – Near-ready bullpen arm
Brennan Garr – Near-ready bullpen arm
Evan Reed – Good arm, but well down Rangers prospect list
Renny Osuna – see Lemon
Michael Schlact – Likely no closer than 10th in line for a shot at the Rangers starting rotation.
Ben Harrison – Behind Mayberry and at least 5 others for shot at COF spot.
Ian Gac – Breakout 2008 but no higher than 3 on the Rangers list of 1B prospects
Steve Murphy – Fringe, but near-ready outfielder
Zach Phillips – See Evan Reed

The list is intended to provide a sense of the type of players that the Rangers could use to compensate another team without dipping into what are considered to be the team’s most talented major and minor league players.  Depending on whether a trade happens before or after the Rule 5 draft, Arias, Mayberry, Harrison, and Gac might need to be added to an opposing team’s 40 man roster.  Players that need not be added to the 40 man roster would likely be considered more valuable to another team. 

Players to Target
The pool of players that I used for the selection process was restricted to pitchers whose off-season trade value is likely to be less than a Top20 prospect from the Rangers.  To further reduce the number of candidates, I chose to restrict the analysis to pitchers under the age of 28 whom the Rangers would control for at least 3 years.  In my opinion, the three best places to look for the kind of low-risk, high-reward pitchers that the Rangers should target are: (1) bullpens, (2) prospect scrap heaps, and (3) the waiver wire.  The top candidates selected from the bullpens of other teams are presented below.  A follow-up post will capture pitchers from the latter two categories.

Miscast Relievers (Examples – Jeremy Guthrie, Derek Lowe, Braden Looper, Jonathan Sanchez, Todd Wellemeyer)
To select pitchers in this category, I reviewed the MLB stats of pitchers who averaged more than an inning per appearance in 2008 while pitching primarily out of the bullpen and who were used primarily as starters when they were in the minor leagues.  These criteria were used to identify players who are serving as long relievers/spot starters at the major league level but who were developed as starting pitchers.  The following pitchers were selected based on their minor and major league strikeout and walk rates, WHIPs, and ERAs.

Jared Burton (CIN) – 27 yo RHP – Burton was claimed in the Rule 5 draft prior to the 2007 season.  As shown in his stats, Burton’s transition from the minor to the major leagues has gone smoothly:
Majors - 3.59 ERA, 8.6 K/9IP, 3.39 BB/9IP, 1.27 WHIP
Minors – 2.36 ERA, 8.47 K/9IP, 3.84 BB/9IP, 1.13 WHIP
Armed with a mid-90’s fastball, change-up, and slider, Burton has proven to be an effective middle-reliever for the Reds.  Burton was a starter in college and his first two years in the minors, but has been used primarily as a reliever since 2005.  With fewer than two years of service time and a three-pitch arsenal, it might behoove a team like the Rangers to see if Burton could return to being a starter.

Ramon Ramirez (KC) – 26 yo RHP – Traded twice in the last three years, Ramirez has appeared in 48 games in 2008 posting a 2.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.  In 134 innings spanning three major league seasons, Ramirez has posted a 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7K/9, and 3.5BB/9.  Ramirez’ ML career has been restricted to the bullpen, but most of his 553 minor league innings came as a starter where he produced peripherals that were consistent with his major league performance (4.25 ERA, 9.1K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.31 WHIP).  Ramirez supposedly has a low 90’s fastball, power curve, and splitter that would likely support a return to a starting role.

Carlos Villanueva (MIL) – 26 yo LHP – Since being promoted to the big league club in 2007, Villanueva has used three average pitches and a deceptive delivery to produce above average numbers as a swing man out of the bullpen.
Majors – 247 IP, 4.14 ERA, 3.09 BB/9IP, 7.23 K/9IP. 1.28 WHIP
Minors – 464 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.43 BB/9IP, 8.92 K/9IP, 1.10 WHIP
Villanueva was a starter in the minor leagues and with only two years of major league service time, it is possible that he could become a relatively long-term solution to a team seeking an effective and relatively inexpensive left-handed starter.

Matt Albers (BAL) – 25 yo RHP – Traded from the Astros to the Orioles prior to the 2008 season, Albers has appeared in 28 games for Baltimore.  In 49 innings, he has produced a 3.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and ~5K/9IP that is a step above his career numbers (5.20 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and ~6K/9IP in parts of 3 major league seasons).  Albers’ minor league resume includes 601 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, >9K/9IP, and >2:1 K:BB as a starter.  Albers has an excellent curve that he combines with a low 90’s fastball.

Edwar Ramirez (NYY) – 27 yo RHP – The Yankees reliever has tossed 59.1 IP in his major league career, racking up 75 K’s (11.4/9IP) against 29 BB’s while posting a 4.40 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  His 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 2008 speak to improvements that he made between 2007 and 2008.  Ramirez was a minor league starter until he was hurt and missed most of the 2004 and 2005 seasons.  His minor league career includes 190 IP, ~12K/9IP, <3BB/9IP, 2.83 ERA, and 1.1 WHIP.  As with the players listed above, if Ramirez failed as a starter, then he could return to the bullpen where he has proven to be a productive pitcher.

Anthony Reyes (CLE) – 26 yo RHP – Traded to the Indians at mid-season after disappointing the Cardinals, Reyes has started 6 games, pitched 34.1 innings, and posted a 1.93 ERA, 3.9K/9IP, and 1.25 WHIP.  During parts of 4 major league seasons, Reyes has bounced between the rotation and bullpen, throwing 220.2 innings with a 5.38 ERA, 6.9K/9IP, and 1.35 WHIP.  Pitching mostly in AAA, his minor league numbers have been much more respectable (353.2IP, 3.31 ERA, 8.8K/9IP, 1.11 WHIP). Reyes four pitch repertoire (mid-90s four-seamer, low-90s two-seamer, slider, change-up) appear perfectly suited for a starting role.

Note - Some teams transition pitching prospects into their starting rotations following a 1-2 year apprenticeship in the bullpen.  Prying these young pitchers away from their respective teams can be an extraordinary challenge.  Other pitchers are simply viewed as bullpen arms without any real value as starters.  Unfortunately, I am unable to distinguish the two and thus it is possible that some of the players in the above list might be deemed untouchable by their parent club. 

A second FanPost will follow with descriptions of pitchers in the following two categories:

Big Talent/Poor Results

Casualties of the 40-Man Roster