Off-season Bargain Hunting (Part 2)

As a reminder, the goal for this exercise was to identify pitchers under the age of 28 with at least three years of club control whom the Rangers could potentially obtain in trades this off-season without having to give up a key major leaguer or one of their top prospects. 

Good Stuff/Poor Performance (Examples –Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, Edwin Jackson)
Young pitchers invariably struggle when they are promoted to the major leagues.  The most talented and well developed pitchers usually produce league average or better results within a season or two.  Some pitchers take longer.  Identifying those pitchers that will eventually figure it out while their value is low due to poor performance can produce significant returns for the team that is able to trade for them.  To identify candidates for this category, I reviewed BA’s Top100 prospects from the past 7 seasons and selected those pitchers who appeared on at least two prospect lists.  My reasoning was that being recognized at least twice as a Top100 prospect suggests that the pitcher has stuff that is generally acknowledged as above average.  The pitchers selected by this method were a “who’s who” of the top pitchers in MLB (Beckett, Peavy, Sabathia, Kazmir, Danks, Cain, Greinke, King Felix, McGowan, Zambrano, Sheets).  However, there are a number of pitchers who have thus far failed to distinguish themselves as good major league starters.

Franklin Morales (Rockies) – 22 yo LHP – Morales has three potentially plus pitches (mid-90s fastball, curve, and change-up) that he struggles to control.  He was ranked by BA as the #30 (2007) and #13 (2008) prospect in baseball the past two years.  After a strong finish in the major leagues last year (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in a handful of starts), Morales has struggled mightily this year in the majors (6.39 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) and AAA (110 IP, 83K, 82BB, 1.51 WHIP).  It seems unlikely that the Rockies would seek a trade for a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation stuff, but perhaps a package of prospects offered at the right time would find a receptive audience if the Rockies are concerned that Morales will never be able to adequately control his stuff.
Majors – 64 IP, 4.59 ERA, 35K, 31BB, 1.44 WHIP
Minors – 538 IP, 4.38 ERA, 9.1K/9IP, 5.3BB/9IP, 1.51 WHIP

Merkin Valdez (Giants) – 26 yo RHP – An electric fastball (mind-90’s w/movement) coupled with a change-up and slider led BA to rank him #40 (2004) and #58 (2005).  Unlike others in this category, Valdez has performed well when he’s been on the mound.  His problem is that he’s struggled with injuries the past few years.  Valdez is out of options and has missed most of 2008 due to an elbow injury, making his standing on the pitching-rich Giants roster tenuous.
Majors – 17.2 IP, 18H, 10BB, 15K, 8ER
Minors -  397 IP, 3.36 ERA, 9K/9IP, 3.6BB/9IP, 1.26 WHIP

Homer Bailey (Reds) – 22 yo RHP – With a plus fastball and a plus curve, Bailey has appeared four times on BA’s Top100 (#48 in 2005, #38 in 2006, #5 in 2007, and #9 in 2008).  Two failed attempts to stick in the ML rotation appear to have affected his minor league performance in 2008 (4.77 ERA in AAA).  With a rotation anchored by Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and Arroyo, it is not clear that Bailey has a place in the Reds’ future.  The team is likely to struggle getting their roster down to 40 players this fall given that they currently have 46 listed on the major league team.  A well-timed phone call by the Rangers to the Reds might produce a young fire-baller that has apparently reminded some of a young Nolan Ryan.
Majors – 81.2 IP, 4.59 ERA, 46K, 45BB, 1.80 WHIP
Minors – 441 IP, 3.79 ERA, 9.3K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.32 WHIP

Yusmiero Petit (D’backs) – 23 yo RHP has been ranked by BA as the #46 (2005) and #69 (2006) prospect in baseball.  Petit apparently has excellent command of a 87-91 MPH sinker, slurve, and change-up. Traded twice in the past three years, Petit has thrown 138 innings in parts of three major league seasons and produced a 5.33 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, ~7K/9IP, and <3BB/9IP.  Although his ERA+ has improved in each of his three seasons (45 to 103 to 111), he has worked primarily as a long man/spot starter in the major leagues which is a far cry from the mid-rotation horse that he was originally projected to become.  In 2008, Petit has pitched 55 innings in 17 games, starting 8, striking out 41, walking 13, and posting a 4.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  Petit’s 2008 numbers are beginning to approach those that he accumulated primarily as a starter in 596 minor league innings (3.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.8K/9IP, 2.1BB/9IP).  Young and improving, Petit appears to be on the verge of moving into a major league rotation where he could prove valuable to a team that will control him for 4 years.

Nick Adenhart (Angels) - 22 yo RHP – Armed with a three-pitch repertoire (excellent curve and change-up plus a low 90’s fastball with good movement) and good-for-his-age stats, Adenhart was ranked #90 in 2006, #34 in 2007, and #27 in 2008 on BA's year-end prospect lists.  Although Adenhart was outstanding in 2006 when he pitched in the Midwest and Cal Leagues (2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8K/9IP, <3BB/9IP), his performance has fallen the last two years (3.65 ERA/1.46 WHIP in 2007 and 5.76 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 2008).  It is unlikely that the Angels would be ready to trade a player who as recently as last year was considered by many to be their top prospect, but it might be worth a phone call. 
Majors – 3 starts, 12 IP, 18H, 13BB, 4K, 12ER
Minors – 506 IP, 3.89 ERA, 7.7K/9IP, 3.7BB/9IP, 1.41 WHIP

Casualties of Congested Rosters (Example – Johan Santana, Armando Galarraga, Dustin Nippert)
Occasionally, poor internal scouting and/or a glut of talent leads a team to lose good pitchers to waivers or the Rule 5 draft.  This proved to be the most difficult category for me to assess given that it is unclear who is likely to be waived to make room for incoming prospects and free agents during the upcoming off-season.  After assessing the 40-man rosters and upper minors for all thirty teams, I selected the three that appear to have more major league-ready pitchers than they have room on their rosters.  For each of the three teams, I selected a couple of pitchers that might be traded in the off-season to make room on their team’s 40- and/or 25-man rosters.

Oakland A’s
The A’s added a lot of prospects to their system via trades this year.  Their 40–man roster currently stands at 43.  With 8 left-handed pitchers on their 40-man, lefties who have failed to distinguish themselves are at-risk of being waived to make room for a new group of A’s prospects (Mazzaro, Guzman, Lansford). 

Dan Meyer (OAK) – 27 yo LHP - Meyer’s fastball sits in the low 90’s and he apparently has one of the better sliders in the A’s system along with a decent change-up.  Prior to being traded to the A’s for Tim Hudson, Meyer was considered Atlanta’s top pitching prospect.  Meyer’s major league numbers have been uninspiring but his minor league numbers have been excellent.  The lefty is out of options and potentially out of chances to stick with the A’s.
Majors – 43 IP, 31K, 23BB, 7.95 ERA, 1.77 WHIP
Minors – 733 IP, 3.60 ERA, 8.5K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.29 WHIP

Dallas Braden (OAK) – 25 yo LHP – Braden is a four pitch lefty (high 80s fastball, slider, change-up, screwball) who has posted a better than 4:1 K:walk rate during his minor league career.  That success has not yet been replicated at the major league level where he has accumulated just under a year of service-time.  With five years of club control and one more option (I think), Braden could be an intriguing off-season trade target.
Majors – 99 IP, 6.09 ERA, 6.8K/9IP, 3.6BB/9IP, 1.59 WHIP
Minors – 346 IP, 3.30 ERA, 10.1K/9IP, 2.4BB/9IP, 1.16 WHIP

Florida Marlins

Florida’s 40-man roster currently stands at 47 players, with very few players eligible for free agency after this season.  In 2008, the Marlins have used 9 starting pitchers who fall in the 21-25 year age range.  Volstad, Nolasco, and Johnson all have ERAs below 3.55 and Olsen sports a 4.31 ERA.  Miller and Tucker are considered to be exceptional prospects, providing the Marlins with an exciting core of 6 young pitchers for their rotation.  One way for the Marlins to clear space on their roster is to swap a pitcher or two for prospects who are not yet Rule 5 eligible.  My favorites among the Marlin’s young starters not listed above are:

Anibal Sanchez (FLA) – 24 yo RHP – Sanchez throws a low-90s fastball, above average change and curve, and an occasional slider.  He was ranked the #40 prospect in baseball by BA in 2006.  Ordinarily, a player of Sanchez’ caliber would seem off-limits but three issues suggest that might not be the case. (1) It appears the Marlins used Sanchez’ final option this year, meaning he will have to pass through waivers prior to being designated to a minor league team if he fails to stick on the Marlins’ active roster.  (2) Sanchez has pitched in only 9 games this year following an injury-shortened 2007, and he has not been particularly good (46 IP, 5.87 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 42K).  (3) The players union filed a grievance against the Marlins based on Sanchez’ contention that his arm injury in 2007 was mis-handled by the team.  If the Marlins decide that their team will be better by subtracting Sanchez, I hope that the Rangers are at the front of the line with trade ideas.
Majors – 144 IP, 3.24 ERA, 5.4K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.37 WHIP
Minors – 326 IP, 2.71 ERA, 10.4K/9IP, 2.9BB/9IP, 1.10 WHIP

Rick Vanden Hurk (FLA) – 23 yo RHP – Vanden Hurk was apparently rushed to the majors in 2007 and was predictably punished by major league hitters as a 21 yo rookie (6.83 ERA).  Vanden Hurk has struggled again this year in limited action in the majors (7.71 ERA).  Because he is down to his last option, he faces an uphill battle cracking the Marlins starting rotation.  The right-hander features a big curveball and low 90’s fastball that he can get up to 96 MPH.  His minor league numbers are outstanding.  Given his age and stuff, it seems likely that Vanden Hurk stands a good chance of breaking out in another year or two, whereupon he could provide a team a very nice 3-4 year return on their investment.
Majors – 95 IP, 6.96 ERA, 9.6K/9IP, 5.5BB/9IP, 1.80 WHIP
Minors – 289 IP, 3.61 ERA, 9.3K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.30 WHIP

Tampa Rays
The Rays have 42 players on their 40-man roster and several prospects who need to be added in the fall or they will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  With David Price apparently ready to join Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Sonnastine or Jackson in the Rays rotation and Davis, McGee, and Hellickson expected to be ready soon, there appears to be little room for a couple of young pitchers with impressive resumes.

JP Howell (Rays) – 25 yo LHP - After struggling as a starter for parts of three years in the majors (ERA above 6.00), the Rays put Howell in the bullpen in 2008 and he has flourished (2.54 ERA).  While his recent success has likely moved him out of the bargain bin, it is possible that the Rays might consider a trade to clear room on their 40- and 25-man rosters for one of their stud pitching prospects or for a veteran who can add experience to their young team.  
Majors – 226 IP, 5.33 ERA, 7.8K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.49 WHIP
Minors – 346 IP, 3.20 ERA, 9.5K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.23 WHIP

James Houser (Rays) – 23 yo LHP – Houser has a low 90s fastball, above average curve, and a developing change-up.  Drafted in the second round in 2003, his career minor league numbers are excellent – 3.66 ERA, 8.1K/9IP, 3.0BB/9IP, 1.21 WHIP.  Houser was added to the Rays’ 40-man roster last year and appears to have one option remaining.  He is a fringe Top10 prospect for the Rays but doesn’t seem to be in their future rotation plans.  Houser received a 50-game suspension last year for PEDs, but his numbers this year have remained strong in AAA (2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).