Charting the organization - First Base
by Brett Perryman on Sep 2, 2008 11:00 AM CDT
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PrintWith the minor league season ending, I’m going to run through a review of the organization on a position-by-position basis and give a brief look at how it stacks up against the rest of baseball. First up, first base.
Depth Chart:
Texas (MLB) - Chris Davis, Hank Blalock, Frank Catalanotto
Oklahoma (AAA) - Nate Gold
Frisco (AA) - Chad Tracy
Bakersfield (A+) - Ian Gac
Clinton (A) - Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland
Spokane (A-) - Dennis Guinn
AZL (RK) - Clark Murphy, Michael Ortiz
Top 1B prospects:
1. Justin Smoak - easily the best in the system once he signed and Davis reached 130 MLB ABs
2. Mitch Moreland - I’m a little hesitant to get too excited based on conservative assignment
3. Clark Murphy - .358/.435/.526 start for 5th rounder in 95 AZL ABs
4. Chad Tracy - finally living up to offensive expectations in AA
5. Ian Gac - control of the strike zone fell apart in Bakersfield
Top 1B prospects in baseball (loosely ordered):
Lars Anderson BOS, Matt LaPorta (LF) CLE, Freddie Freeman ATL, Logan Morrison FLA, Eric Hosmer (status in doubt) KC, Justin Smoak TEX, Brett Wallace (3B) STL, Angel Villalona SF, Beau Mills CLE, Chris Marrero WAS
Top 1B organizations:
1. St Louis - Albert Pujols, Brett Wallace
2. Boston - Kevin Youkilis/David Ortiz, Lars Anderson
3. Houston - Lance Berkman
4. Detroit - Miguel Cabrera, Jeff Larish
5. Minnesota - Justin Morneau, Chris Parmelee
Where the Rangers fit:
If Davis stays at first base, the Rangers have a solid middle of the pack major league situation with the potential to join that elite group quickly. Davis, as a 22 year old rookie only two years out of junior college, would have the 11th best EqA among major league first basemen if he had enough plate appearances to qualify among the leaders. Smoak could give the Rangers one the three best 1-2 combos of under-30 first basemen in the game.
2009 outlook:
As mentioned most recently here, the Rangers corner infield situation for next year is way up in the air, and much of it relies upon how the club decides to proceed with Davis. If management decides to open 2009 with Davis at third base, the situation will be far from defined. Hank Blalock could stay in the first base picture, Max Ramirez and John Mayberry Jr. could be considered for position changes, Davis would be an ever-present threat to return to the position upon, say, an Elvis Andrus promotion, and even Smoak might not be too far from joining the fray. If Davis does open as the first baseman, the situation at this position figures to be much more secure and - at least until Smoak is ready - static.
Aside from Smoak, who will probably open in Bakersfield with a midseason jump to Frisco very possible, Moreland will face another year of being pushed to the side by Smoak and will look to further legitimize his standing. It will be interesting to see whether Murphy’s bat forces a jump to the Midwest league and whether he can become a prominent prospect, adding to the system’s positional depth.
The question over whether Smoak should be moved to add major league pitching will probably begin to be asked around deadline time next season, but with so many options arising on that plate, I think it’s more important for now to see how he continues to adjust to professional baseball.
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This is a great idea
for a series of posts, looking forward to all of them.
Moreland. Can’t they move him to RF or something? I think they risk underdeveloping a darkhorse if they just play him all over the field and at DH with nowhere to call home. I was disappointed he wasn’t challenged with a promotion. Gac seems to have less a chance to pan out and didn’t exactly light the world on fire with his promotion to a hitter-friendly league. Moreland could be a decent trade chip if he can move up and continue to hit with good power and patience.
Big change in where we thought the organization was at 1B a year ago.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
Agreed on both counts
This stands to be a great series! And why isn’t Moreland playing everyday in RF?
Seems like an okay situation to be in
I don’t see any reason to rush Smoak – the instability of the position at the major league level is mostly related to the question mark at 3rd base; if nothing else we know that Davis can man first. As is probably usually the case, the low minors appear a lot more promising than the upper levels, but that can change soon if Smoak and Moreland move up quickly.
The only other contingency I’d think about is what if Davis is traded this offseason? I’m of the opinion he is both our best trade chip from a combined possible return and ease of replacing standpoint. The pressure really is on Smoak at that point to advance quickly, unless you move MaxRam over there.
3rd base
Can you say more about the possible move of Davis to 3rd?
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
I plan on it
when I get to 3B, yeah.
Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return
by Brett Perryman on Sep 2, 2008 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
autorec!
more Z gold… looking forward to this series.
side note. whatever happen to the “this month in [insert milb club city name here]”… i liked that series as well.. very informative…
wasn’t that a t ball production?
I blame it not on Ron Washington, but on society. Society is to blame. And Ron Washington. ~Ken Tremendous on Ron Washington sac bunting in the 11th vs LAA
I deemed it
unneccesary and redundant, in addition to taking too much time.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
i think...
….it did a good job of tracking players that sometimes get over looked and had a good amount of focus on the overall development of some players..
but its not my times so i completely understand.
I blame it not on Ron Washington, but on society. Society is to blame. And Ron Washington. ~Ken Tremendous on Ron Washington sac bunting in the 11th vs LAA
Davis v. Smoak trade value
Davis seems to be at his peak trade value now and through the offseason, barring injury. Given his Boras affiliation and our depth at the position, he seems like a good ML chit (along with prospects) to trade for a Matt Cain-type starter. I don’t see Davis long-term at 3B, so Davis or Smoak will get dealt. Smoak won’t get to Davis’ current trade value within the next year, unless he absolutely mashes in the minors. But regardless of trade value, Smoak is the better fit in Texas.
+1
Couldn’t put it better.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 2, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't see why
one of Davis and Smoak can’t be the team’s DH. That doesn’t speak that much to you point, but I don’t think that either of them HAS to go.
Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return
by Brett Perryman on Sep 2, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Max
Are you seeing him more as a catcher? I think I like him better as a DH/ 3rd C.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 2, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't have a problem with that either
But he’s certainly as likely to be dealt as either Davis or Smoak.
Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return
by Brett Perryman on Sep 2, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Max/Davis/Smoak
I’d think that Max has significantly less trade value than Davis, and I know that this probably isn’t an opinion shared by many, but I think Max has a pretty good chance to be the best hitter of the 3.
If some team values Max more than CD, then sure go ahead and move him, but if not, then Davis seems like the best trade chip.
Warner Madrigal makes Ezequiel Astacio look downright handsome.
Another thought
Just wanted to add that part of my issue on Smoak/Davis is that I don’t understand why people dislike putting a great bat at DH. If your organization doesn’t have a great hitter who is incapable of playing a position, what is so bad about putting a great hitter who can play a corner position at DH, when you also have a great hitter at his position? It doesn’t seem wasteful at all to me. DH should be one of your 2-3 best offensive positions, but we are too concerned with “wasting” marginal defensive talent and let good hitters get away and wind up with a weakness at DH far too often as a result.
Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return
by Brett Perryman on Sep 2, 2008 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1
That is exactly the problem the Rangers have had these past few years that pretty much led to them just shipping off A-Gon for nothing. No more past their prime veterans and guys trying to squeeze out an extra year in their careers. Lets actually have a good hitting DH in the future.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I agree sort of
I’d love to keep both Davis and Smoak, but not sure I agree about A-Gon. The idea of trading him wasn’t necessarily 100% wrong, it’s the execution of that trade that sucked. If he had been held onto until his value was higher and then traded for a good pitcher we’d all be ok with that I think. It wasn’t a crime that A-Gon was traded, it’s a crime that he was traded so poorly.
I won’t cry if one of Davis or Smoak is traded, as long as the return is the right value.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
Davis
He’s f.a. eligible after 2014, so the Boras factor isn’t something I’m concerned about.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 2, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Smoak
Anyone else see Smoak as a Justin Morneau-ish player over the long term?
Sorry, didn’t see that as Fanpost worthy and with the talk of “Can’t Smoak just DH?” I thought it might present itself as a valid comparison.
"But the major difference is where Showalter tried to overthink everything Washington at times seems like he isn't thinking at all. " - rentz
Morneau improved a lot, defensively
After his first couple of years. Who knows if Smoke will be able to do the same.
Their swings do appear similar, I suppose.
"The question of how we came to be is a philosophical one." - 4HIM
by inactive lsb user on Sep 2, 2008 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions
while you're at it
you could always finish up AJM’s Top 50 Rangers.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
Here's something I've been wondering about if the Rangers trade for a SP.
Is it almost necessary to trade ASAP after the season in order to have the appearance of a team fixing it’s weakness while it courts the FA pool? It seems like if the Rangers wait around until the Winter meetings in order to better judge the trade value of their players, the big name FA may be off the market.
Go Rangers!
Moreland
I like what they have done with him this year. I think next year he jumps straight to Frisco either along with Smoak or by himself. Maybe Smoak starts in Bakersfield for about a month and then goes to Frisco. Moreland can hold down 1B in Frisco until Smoak arrives. Murphy should be able to slide into the Clinton 1B slot rather easily.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
agreed
i would like to see the org challenge both smoak and moreland by putting them in Frisco next year. Moreland should have been in Bakersfield back in July. Both Smoak and Moreland would be age appropriate in Frisco next year, and with the way they have hit in a pitcher’s league like Clinton, they appear to be ready to make the jump.
Tracy
Not sure what to think of this guy. I think most of us had just about given up on him until he started raking this summer. Looking at the numbers, the difference from previous years seem to be big increases in BABIP, line drive rate, and ground ball rate. His ISOP is about the same, his walk rates are a tad lower.
Taken with Zywica’s comment in another thread it seems Tracy might be driving the ball with a little more authority, but without lofting it for more power. I’m hesitant to get too excited. This may be just a good summer in the way that Mayberry was real good for a while and has now tailed off. Still seems like a longshot to contribute at the ML level to me.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
he is the sort of player
the Rangers should attempt to trade this offseason, then. in most org’s he is a top 15 talent, so he probably has more trade value than some around here would think.
Top 15 talent
I don’t know about that. I think there are several systems in which he’d have trouble cracking the top 10 or 15.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
Haven't we been hearing about Gac
forever? I know you have him ranked low, but other folks keep mentioning him. He’s been in the system, what, around a half decade?
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.
"JD is a great GM if you ignore the giving away pitching and handing out horrible contract stuff."-Tricer
Yeah
He was drafted out of HS in 2003. He was a year young for his class at least.
Offense doesn't doubt me, but my first and primemost thing is defense and punt return and kickoff return
by Brett Perryman on Sep 2, 2008 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
So, most likely
gone as a minor league free agent in a year or 2?
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.
"JD is a great GM if you ignore the giving away pitching and handing out horrible contract stuff."-Tricer
I don't think he will be in the system next year
FA or not. There are too many guys stacked up at multiple positions who need to platoon there or play there on occasion to get their at bats. Gac stopped being a prospect years ago…
i'm torn...
…it makes a lot of sense to make room for talented hitters who can hold their own with a glove… but i am also torn with the idea of having a SERIOUS bat at the DH spot who can play a position in a pinch… the problem, as has been alluded multiple times here is ideally 2010 would look like:
1-smoak
2-kinsler
s-andrus
3-davis
dh-max
but that leaves no room for FOTF and his contract… can we start calling MY “albatross”?
I blame it not on Ron Washington, but on society. Society is to blame. And Ron Washington. ~Ken Tremendous on Ron Washington sac bunting in the 11th vs LAA
When I called the contract an albatross
when it was signed, it wasn’t too popular. However, I really see MY gumming the works, because he doesn’t have the speed or the range to make his contract worthwhile with his glove, and he doesn’t have the bat to be moved to a CIF/COF/DH position. This kind of reminds me of the last years of Bagwell and Biggio, when there really was no where to put them, and they helped clog up the teams roster.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.
"JD is a great GM if you ignore the giving away pitching and handing out horrible contract stuff."-Tricer
you think..
…he’d graciously accept a pay cut and move to an “operations advisor” position… or “200 hit season consultant”….?
I blame it not on Ron Washington, but on society. Society is to blame. And Ron Washington. ~Ken Tremendous on Ron Washington sac bunting in the 11th vs LAA
Whats funny though Cahill,
is many guys wanted him to stay to show the fans that we do want to keep quality players on this team regardless of price. I’m glad we signed him long term and in the long run, he and his future teammates will bring a championship to Arlington.
I just wish people wouldn’t bash the guy now, and I’m not saying you are. He is the kind of all around baseball guy you want on a team, regardless of how his stats have declined some. Every great player regresses and they seem to always bounce back in a season or two with some great numbers.
Mark my words fella’s, Mike YOung will justify his contract.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
I don't think
there is a snowball’s chance in hell he will justify that contract, given that he has had exactly one year in his career (his age 28 season) that justifies that contract. The contract reminds me so much of the Angels big contract to Darin Erstad, who had one good year, but was praised by Angels fans for his leadership.
They gave Erstad a longterm contract, that everyone but the most myopic of Angel fans knew was a disaster.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.
"JD is a great GM if you ignore the giving away pitching and handing out horrible contract stuff."-Tricer
Albatross Contract
Was there really that much disagreement?
I mean sure, there were a lot of people not really analyzing the situation who were saying it was a great signing.
But all the main opinions on this blog, I thought were dead-set AGAINST the signing….
I could be mis-remembering, but I’m pretty sure most if not all the knowledgeable people called it an albatross contract when it was signed (i.e., our Erstad, Garret Anderson, etc. contract).
R
Relative
No one is as against anything as Cahill is. At the time I remember a lot of people (including myself) posting hopeful things, but sincerity was lacking.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
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