Charting the organization - Lefties

by Brett Perryman on Sep 23, 2008 6:05 PM CDT Comment 20 comments

Previous positions:
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Base
Catcher
Outfield

I'm going to look at left handed pitching in the organization in a vacuum here first, then as incorporated in the pitching as a whole. This was a huge area of weakness as recently as spring 2007, but it is another that has been bulked up organizationally since then. If I had to characterize which areas of the organization Jon Daniels has clearly placed an emphasis, catcher and left handed pitching would be the first two to come to mind. In the last 2+ years, a first round pick in '06 was used on a lefty (Kiker), the last big money DFE was signed (Holland), the deadline deals were littered with them (Harrison, B Jones, Gabbard), the top lefty in Latin America was brought in (M Perez), and three of the top six picks in the '08 draft were used on them (Ross, Murphy, Bleier). The team seems to have bought into the smaller, athletic lefty as a viable profile, as Kiker, Perez and Ross all measure 6-0 or less and required significant resources to acquire.

Depth Chart:
Texas (MLB) - Matt Harrison, Kason Gabbard, CJ Wilson, Bill White
Oklahoma - AJ Murray, Michael Ballard, John Rheinecker
Frisco (AA) - Derek Holland, Beau Jones
Bakersfield (A+) - Kasey Kiker, Zach Phillips, Glen Swanson, Ryan Falcon
Clinton (A) - Tim Murphy, Michael Kirkman, Michael Ortiz
Spokane (A-) - Martin Perez, Richard Bleier
AZL (RK) - Gueris Grullon, Miguel de los Santos

Top LHP prospects:
1. Derek Holland - huge year, stuff took a great jump, hope he can handle the innings
2. Martin Perez - just read the last week on LSB
3. Kasey Kiker - I think that his season was a little better than it looks, stuff wasn't downright electric though
4. Robby Ross - good stuff, good brain, will be fun to watch next season
5. Tim Murphy - ones of these athletic guys who hasn't been dedicated to pitching for all that long, solid lefty stuff and could move pretty fast

Top LHP prospects in baseball (loosely ordered):
David Price TB, Madison Bumgarner SF, Brett Anderson OAK, Brian Matusz BAL, Aaron Poreda CWS, Brett Cecil TOR, Derek Holland TEX, Gio Gonzalez OAK, David Huff CLE, Danny Duffy KC

Top LHP organizations:
1. Tampa Bay - Scott Kazmir, David Price, JP Howell, Trever Miller, Jake McGee
2. New York Mets - Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, Billy Wagner, Scott Schoeneweis, Jon Niese
3. Chicago White Sox - Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Matt Thornton, Aaron Poreda
4. Cleveland - Cliff Lee, Aaron Laffey, Rafael Perez, Scott Lewis, Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, Tony Sipp, Chuck Lofgren
5. Los Angeles Dodgers - Clayton Kershaw, Hong Chih Kuo, Scott Elbert, Joe Beimel, Eric Stults

Where the Rangers fit:
It's all about potential here. The Rangers have the best set of top flight lefty prospects in baseball to go with Harrison and Wilson. Only Kiker has been in professional baseball for two years, so it will take some time for that group to impact the major league club. Beau Jones is one of the more interesting lefty reliever prospects in baseball and could join Wilson to provide a nice 1-2 punch in the pen, and Joseph Ortiz held his own in one of the most aggressive assignments in baseball at age 17 in a full season league. The Rangers have also signed some live arms in Latin America (including Gueris Grullon and Vicente Escobar) who haven't emerged like Perez and Ortiz, but have the talent to add to the quality depth next season.

2009 outlook:
Harrison looks like a good candidate for the rotation. I still see him as an inconsistent guy who averages out to about a fourth starter, but, hey, Texas can use that. Wilson will be in the mix late in games but might have permanently lost his closer job. Gabbard, Murray, White, Ballard and maybe even Rheinecker will compete for roster spots, but the interest will surround Holland, who dominated more and more as he moved up and doesn't figure to last much longer in Frisco.

Kiker will start in Frisco and should spend more time there, though he could be quite tempting as a relief supplement if the big club is having a good year. Murphy will probably open a level behind him in High A and, like Tommy Hunter and Evan Reed in 2008, could see AA. He should be joined by Ortiz, who will presumably be the youngest player in the league at 18. Perez will lead a talented rotation in the new Hickory affiliate, and Richard Bleier should join him somewhere on that staff. Michael Kirkman had a big retrenching year, as he regained his control, and he should be in one of the full season rotations as well. And Robbie Ross will probably contend for a spot in Hickory, but may wait until May or so even if he does win a spot there, to keep his innings manageable in his first pro season. One of the most interesting things to watch on an organizational level in 2009 will be how this set of lefties progresses.

1 recs | Comment 20 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Kiker

Can we read anything into the decision to not promote him for the AA playoffs?

"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve

by tricer on Sep 23, 2008 6:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps but.....

he had been experiencing some shoulder soreness throughout the season and his mechanics were very sloppy over his final three starts. Kiker even told me that he just didn’t feel “right”. Based on that, I think the decision to keep Kiker in Bakersfield was probably more about his health and mechanical issues than anything else.

The inconsistencies that troubled Kiker throughout this season are probably what punched his ticket to instructs this fall. He has the makings of three plus pitches, but he suffered through several periods of mechanical inconsistency and that directly affected his heath and overall performance.

Kiker is a much better pitcher than his overall ’08 numbers would indicate.

Coach John Bagonzi Q&A

by jparks77 on Sep 23, 2008 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Organizational emphasis

Catcher, up the middle athletic types, lefty arms, athletic outfielders. These seem like areas in which Daniels has pursued talent aggressively in his tenure. Catcher is smart for any team, but the last two seem especially smart for Arlington. It seems like the team is really making a concerted effort to take advantage of the ballpark as well as acquire players that are just plain valuable.

Innings. Quite a few arms had major jumps in innings this year. I’ll be holding my breath a bit for guys like Feldman, Hunter, Holland, etc. that added a lot.

Zywica, this is a great series of posts and a nice chance to take stock of a deep, deep system. Just a couple of years ago you wouldn’t have needed as many posts…

In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.

by t ball on Sep 23, 2008 7:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Feliz

by Brett Perryman on Sep 23, 2008 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for your work on these Z

by Goyogringo on Sep 23, 2008 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Draft trends

Add to that high ceiling starters of course. Though it seems that JD/staff whiffed on a couple of high-ceiling starter types, Reed and Wilkins, with reed seemingly destined to a setup or closer role (which is fine for his velo but disappointing for a 3rd rounder) , and Wilkins (6th) destined for relief or an abbreviated career. I hope matt thompson doesnt turn out to be the next wilkins.

There seems to be an apparent disinterest in drafting relievers in the top 10 rounds (laughter and caster being the exceptions in the 10th round) assuming I guess that “failed” starters might take on those roles. There have been only 3 relievers taken in the top 10 rounds the last 3 years, Garr, Laughter and Caster at 9, 10, 10 respectively. As a result, there are precious few pure closers in the system.

You also see a relative disinterest in SS and 3b for some reason, with west lemon and the underwhelming Stoneburner being the only 3 from those 2 positions drafted in the top 10 rounds the last 3 drafts. I wonder If those 2 positions might be a point of emphasis the next draft now that our system is insanely balanced save for those 2 spots.

To sum up, Just looking at what other teams did in this years draft (the first 10 rounds at least), I would have to argue against drafting starters after the 5th round unless they have fallen and/or due to signability (eg brigham, ocampo, holland). And looking over the rangers system overall, you really don’t see many legit starter candidates who werent drafted in the top 5 rounds or who were intl FA signees who received money in 1st-5th rd range.

So I really don’t understand why the rangers entertain any picks in that area. And I don’t think you can argue that wilkins, Bleier, and thompson “fell” as no one really projected them that early. Then again there have only been 4 starters picked in that range in 3 years (Brigham being the only one I can understand) so it is not that big of deal i guess.

Conversely, I have to question their unwillingness to draft closers in the 5-10 range more often as we don’t have a lot of pure closers in the system. Finally, I am puzzled by the reluctance to draft 3b and SS in the top 10 rounds. One might say that they are sticking by their board but I think the 3yr pattern is too extreme and indicates a scouting philosophy underlies both all three trends.

Maybe next yr, we get a closer, SS and 3b in the in the top 10 rounds…..

…and sorry about the extended remix rant/digression, the rangers draft trends under JD/staff have just been on the brain lately. I’m going to post a piece in a few days which attempts to correlate a players success to draft position as constituted within the ranger’s system just for grins.

by Goyogringo on Sep 23, 2008 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Beau Jones...

I know that when he was in the Braves’ organization last year Beau Jones was used as a reliever, but when the Rangers acquired him, he started six of his seven appearances for Clinton.

I know that Jones was ineffective as a starter when he started this year at Bakersfield, and then got shelved for a while, but is it a foregone conclusion that Jones can’t become a starter again? It’s hard to imagine that the Rangers wouldn’t give every chance for a power lefty to emerge as a starting pitcher.

I'm tired of the suspense. Why won't they just tell us what they mean by "male enhancement?"

by YourNameHere on Sep 23, 2008 10:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

To me

I think that you do that, but once he’s able to help the team in the pen, unless he’s looking really good as a starter, you allow him to help you there. That doesn’t mean that you’ve closed the door on starting.

by Brett Perryman on Sep 23, 2008 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just wanted to say

good stuff Z. I love this series.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Sep 24, 2008 12:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff, Z

Though it’s worth noting that while Hideki Kuroda might be a lefty, he also doesn’t exist.

Hiroki Kuroda is a righty.

But on a Rangers note… our minor league pitching depth is just unreal. I can’t wrap my head around it. It’s nuts.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 24, 2008 1:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

ugh

Thanks and sorry about that. I’ll edit.

by Brett Perryman on Sep 24, 2008 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

CJ Wilson

Assuming CJ is not the Rangers’ closer next year, wouldn’t it make sense to reconsider converting him back to a starter? He has the assortment of pitches and the cerebral approach that is required to get through a line-up a few times. The only thing that I like better than a hard-throwing lefty in the rotation is two hard-throwing lefties in the rotation which could happen if both Wilson and Holland succeed.

ps – Great work with the write-ups, Z. I use them constantly when I have a question about minor league players (both with the Rangers and for other teams).

by spurdynasty on Sep 24, 2008 12:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

if the Rangers aren’t going to let BGL close then I say stretch him out and try him as a starter. Worst case is he fails and goes back to being a setup guy.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 24, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no way

he sucked at AA as a starter and never started a single game in AAA. He sucked as a spot starter at the major league level. Do seriously think we need a another mediocre 5th starter next year when we already have about 8 candidates? I think the importance of having a great lefty 8th inning guy is much more important for the bullpen and brings a nice balance between him and franfran. A relief role is also the only role he has excelled in in the majors. Makes no sense to move him base on his previous track record (before his injury problems this yr) and the scarcity of good lefty setup guys who arent merely 38 yo guys who you just bring in to strike out one guy. Not to mentions that a good one costs alot in trade and salary.

by Goyogringo on Sep 24, 2008 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree 100%

I don’t get the fascination with wanting to make all our good relievers starters. Unless we are going to throw 162 complete games a year we will need a good bullpen. Don’t get me wrong I think starting pitching is the most important part of a baseball team but the bullpen is a not too distant second. Without one that starting pitching will only lead to alot of headaches at blown leads late in games.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 24, 2008 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

kind of my viewpoint as well

we have ab out 5,698 options for the back of the pen.

CJ has had success in the bullpen.
why not keep him there?

this to me is like the dumb benoit stuff from a few yrs back where some said starter some said reliever but then when you look at his stats he had like a 3.whatever era as a reliever and a 5-6.whatever era as a pitcher

"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich

by knockoutking on Sep 25, 2008 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes I remember that too

but the rangers staff seem to have been the primary culprits, unable to decide on his role for like 3 yrs, bouncing him back and forth, putting him in a kind of baseball purgatory…

by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

CJ

Doesn’t this make less sense as his age advances?

I’d just as soon keep him in his specialty. Re-routing him to starter reps just seems like the wrong way to use his diminishing career.

I know that’s kind of harsh, but he’s 28 in November.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Sep 25, 2008 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

Jerking him back and forth serves no one. He is a bullpen guy now for better or worse. He thinks too much to be a starter anyway. Stop your brain and get out there and throw.

In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.

by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs