Improving run prevention -- a modest proposal
The Rangers pitching isn't as bad as it looks.
Make no mistake, it isn't real good...but the pitching, itself, isn't historically godawful.
If we look at The Hardball Times' team page stats, there are three areas where the Rangers are an outlier that really jump out at me.
First is the spread between team ERA and team FIP (or Fielding Independent Pitching, which is a calculation of runs scored based on a pitcher's peripherals, which should eliminate the impact of the team's defense). The team ERA of 5.41 is 55 points higher than the team FIP of 4.86. That spread is huge...the Yankees, with a spread of 28 points, is the second highest in the A.L. The Blue Jays and Rays -- two of the best defensive teams in the A.L. -- have FIPs that exceed their team ERA by 41 and 30 points, respectively.
So Texas is a huge outlier in that regard. Based on the peripherals -- what is normally considered to be under a pitcher's control -- with an average defense and average luck, the Rangers pitchers would have allowed 86 fewer runs this year than they have actually allowed. And had that been the case, the Rangers would have a positive run differential this year, and people would be talking about how the Ranger pitching staff has turned a corner.
The second outlier that jumps out at me is the team's Defensive Efficiency Rating...that's the percentage of balls in play a team converts into outs. The average in the A.L. this year is 69.2%. Tampa is the best in the A.L., at 71.1%. The Mariners are the second-worst, at 68.3%.
The worst, by far, are the Rangers, at 67.3%. That goes a long way towards explaining why the Ranger team ERA is so much worse than their FIP.
The third outlier is one I didn't expect...and that's LOB percentage. The average A.L. team strands 71% of the runners it allows on base. Only three A.L. teams were worse than 70%. Detroit and Kansas City each stranded just 69% of base runners.
And the Rangers? They only stranded 66%.
An explanation for this? I don't have one. Maybe the pitching staff is mentally weak, and can't hold up to the pressure of pitching with runners on base. Maybe they have a tendency to let things snowball. Or maybe it is just one of those fluky things that happens, which I tend to believe. I don't think there is some special skill involved in stranding runners.
That helps explain why, based on not just peripherals but the actual hits that were allowed, as well, BP says the Rangers gave up 35 more runs than would be expected.
So, things aren't quite so bleak as may first appear. But the Rangers need to improve their run prevention. And expecting them to do so by going out and getting a C.C. Sabathia or a Ben Sheets isn't realistic.
And, really, I don't know that it is necessary. Improving the defense -- particularly the infield defense -- would go a long way towards solving this problem.
Look at John Dewan's +/- system, Michael Young hasn't been as bad at shortstop this year as he had historically -- he's at a -6 plays on the year. Ramon Vazquez has been at -1 at shortstop. That's -7 for the Ranger shortstops, defensively.
At third base, Vazquez has been -10 for the year. Hank Blalock has been even at the season. Chris Davis is at -8 on the year. German Duran is -7. Travis Metcalf is at -6.
So the Ranger third basemen are at -31 plays for the season...a remarkably bad performance. Combined with the shortstop performance, the Rangers left side defense made 38 fewer plays than average. If we assume that every such play would have been a single, using the linear weights mechanism Tom Tango put together, the left side of the defense cost the Rangers 26.6 runs on the year. Taking into account some plays not made by the third basemen went for extra bases, you are probably taking about the defense from those two positions costing the Rangers about 30 runs.
So...how do you solve the problem? Number one, you don't bring either Chris Davis or Hank Blalock back to play third base. Neither of them is likely to be even an average third baseman next year.
Instead, put Michael Young at third base. We've talked about this ad nauseum, but he's simply not a good defensive shortstop, and even in what has been a "good" year for him, he's simply moved into the negative single digits from the negative double digits. He has the arm to play third base, and his lack of range should be less of an issue there. I have to think that, if you slide him over to third base, he's going to be at least an average defensive third baseman.
And who to play short? Not Elvis Andrus. I want to see him get a full year in AAA, and maybe two, to let him work on his offensive game and his defensive consistency. He turned 20 less than a month ago...there's no need to rush him to the majors right now, or even by the start of 2010, when he'll be just 21.
Instead, the Rangers should talk to Doug Melvin about J.J. Hardy. The Brewers are apparently ready to deal Hardy to make room for Alcides Escobar. They need catching help. They need to replace Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. The Rangers have catching and young starting pitching they could deal.
Would, say, the Brewers choice of a catcher, Eric Hurley, and someone like Kennil Gomez or Omar Poveda be enough for Hardy? If so, isn't that a move the Rangers should make?
Hardy in 2008, by Dewan's system, is the top defensive shortstop in baseball, at +21. If you put Young at even in +/- at third base, and Hardy at, say, +15 (assuming he regresses some next year), you are at +15 plays defensively from the left side of year infield, or about 10-11 runs saved above average.
That's a 40 run swing, defensively, from the Rangers' left side infield defense in 2008. That's the equivalent of two starting pitchers logging 200 innings with an ERA .9 runs lower than whomever they are replacing. That is a huge difference, in terms of the defense.
If Ian Kinsler can bounce back from a poor 2008 defensively, and perform like he did in 2007 (when he was a +7), then you've got an infield defense that, suddenly, is a strength, rather than a weakness, and is probably worth a total upgrade of 50 runs defensively. And, since Hardy can hit, you are doing it without sacrificing offense.
If you could swing a deal to land Hardy, then I think you can bring back either Milton Bradley or Blalock to DH, roll with Josh Hamilton in center until Julio Borbon is ready and the Murphy/Byrd/Cruz combo in the outfield corners. You've got one area where you are probably weak defensively -- centerfield -- but overall, you've got a strong defensive team.
So that's my solution. Move the Face to third base, get J.J. Hardy, let Blalock or Bradley DH and not set foot on the field, and pave the way for columnists to marvel about how much better the pitching is in 2009.
5 recs |
272 comments
Comments
I definitely think
somethink like this is really the way to go. I think eventually, we are also going to have to talk about Hamilton in a corner, and perhaps Kinsler as a CoF, but for right now, fixing SS-3B would yield huge improvements defensively.
If we can’t get Hardy for a catcher, I’d pick up the cheaper of izturis or everett on a one year deal.
I think Kinsler has one more year to prove he isn’t just Alfonso Soriano at 2B.
However this defense needs to be fixed. It really is that bad that sacrificing a bat to fix it probably yields you positive returns in the RS/RA ratios.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 11:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Everett at SS and marginal benefit of runs scored/allowed
The classic drawback is that people will say his offense is so bad that the runs he saves you in the field will be lost at the plate
I don’t know if I agree with this – someone should do an economic analysis of runs and wins for a team like Texas. I don’t buy the pure Pythagorean analysis. This is just intuitive, but the problem of a high offense, bad pitching team is the inherent variability in runs scored/allowed in any game. (Teams that average 6 runs/game will have a higher variance in their run distribution than a team scoring 4 runs/game, vice versa for runs allowed). Having high variances in both categories will drive a team towards a .500 record, regardless if there is an advantage in runs scored – runs allowed.
The Rangers seem like a high variance team, both offensively and pitching-wise. An offense based on power (doubles and homers) is always going to be more variable than a classic singles/speed offense. And my gut says that a team that is giving up a lot of bad fielding associated runs (innings go longer than they should) and homers (inherently variable) is going to be more variable than a staff that is just mediocre (lots of walks and soft hits), even if the stats are fundamentally equivalent.
Anyway, my long-winded point is that reducing the noise due to fielding, which Everett would do, could reduce the variability associatd with the pitching staff enough to offset his marginal cost at the plate. Sure the team won’t hit as much, but the less variable pitching staff would allow any run differential to be more meaningful.
by JBImaknee on Sep 25, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course, that raises the whole issue of whether MY will move for a non-premium guy like Izturis or Everett
I know a lot of people will suggest he should just suck it up and accept he’s no longer a good (or average, for that matter) defensive shortstop, but I presume Young, given his stature in the organization, has at least some degree of influence up high. And pride is a very powerful thing in big league ballplayers.
For an Andrus or Hardy type, I think you can convince him to make the move. I don’t think it goes quite as smoothly with lower-tier stopgaps. But that might just be a shot in the dark.
by Joey Matschulat on Sep 25, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he doesn't move,
give him the same treatment that Frank Robinson gave Soriano.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
An organization should never be afraid to tell its players how it is.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Sep 25, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
nothing is more annoying than the thought of a $16 million dollar not playing where you tell him to play. ARod moved to 3B, Cal Ripken moved to 3B, for the amount he is getting paid, certainly FoTF can move to 3B.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Young has never
given us any reason to believe that he wouldn’t do what the team asked of him. I don’t get why people seem to believe he is a “me first, team second” kind of guy. He switched positions before, he stayed in Arlington, he played through 2 hand injuries this year… what does this guy have to do to win any respect??
Yeah, he signed a contract he wasn’t worth. Name me one person that has balked at how much money they were offered and requested a lower salary. That’s his only error here in like 6 years and some people want to burn him at the stake.
If there were no rewards to reap,
no loving embrace to see me through this tedious path I've chosen here,
I certainly would've walked away by now... Be patient
by trident on Sep 25, 2008 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Positions
Shortstop is considered the primo position among the infield positions. Moving from 2nd to SS was not a “downgrade” so to speak. He was basically getting a promotion.
Moving from SS to 3B is not considered a promotion. Its a lateral or even step down on the ladder. Asking him to move is fine if you have a guy to replace him that is going to be the heir apparent. A guy of Hardy or Andrus’ skill and age is acceptable. But to ask him to move for an Adam Everett or Cesar Izturis is like a slap in the face.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tough luck for him.
He doesn’t have much option but to do it.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
Why don’t you tell him that
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be happy to.
As Frank Robinson and SOriano found out, there isn/t much he can do about it.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2B and SS
Moving from 2B to LF is not the slap in the face that moving from SS to 3B is. And with MY not about to be a FA after this year I don’t see how the two situations are remotely similar.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If MY doesn't move to 3B
you don’t have to pay his contract, and MY doesn’t get years of service. So I’d really like to see him try to play hardball.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what?
How would that make us not pay his contract?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You really think
he can just refuse to play and still earn his contract?
by jthig32 on Sep 25, 2008 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im no lawyer
But I find it hard to believe that all it would take to get rid of a guys contract is to put him at a position he doesn’t want to play. If that was the case we would have stuck CHP at catcher. Plus all the negative shitstorm that would happen with the players union the Rangers would never be able to get a free agent to come here. Never. Its not MLB2K8 here. You can’t just start putting people wherever you want and they just automatically play well. Like it or not Micheal Young has power in this organization. You are not going to simply move him to a position he has never played and probably the most premier position in baseball to another one for a guy like Adam Everett or Cesar Izturis.
With guys like Hardy or Andrus you can talk to him and convince him those guys are not simply defensive upgrades but younger players who will be here for a long time like Mike has been and will help this team win not only now but in the forseeable future.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 8:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
IT would be absurd to put CHP
at C, and you most likely would get a grievance filed. However, if the Manager pencils in MY at 3B, he would have 2 options. Play 3B, or breach his contract.
Read the story of Frank Robinson and Soriano. Soriano thought he could say no to it. He found out he really didn’t have the option. The manager decides where players play, not the players. The inmates do not run the asylum.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not playing at the position
he is assigned. Thats what Frank Robinson mentioned to Soriano.
The manager can pencil you in whereever he wants to. You don’t play the position, you are in breach of contract.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said above
If that was the case teams would put pitchers at the catcher position or whatever whenever they have a bad contract. Its not that simple. Frank Robinson told Soriano he would play LF or he would sit the bench. Since Sori was in his first FA eligible year he saw the light and knew that if he was going to have a chance to put up the numbers to make that big payday he would have to suck it up and play LF.
Micheal Young is completely different. He has his GUARANTEED money. Of all the positions SS has the most prestige IMO. Moving someone off of SS to a lesser prestigious position such as 3B would require that player to agree to it. Micheal Young won’t and shouldn’t agree to move for a spare like Everett or Izturis no matter how big an upgrade defensively they are. For young future stars such as Hardy or Andrus it will be easier to get him to agree to move.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
re:
Like I said above If that was the case teams would put pitchers at the catcher position or whatever whenever they have a bad contract.
That’s just a ridiculous leap to make there.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Sep 25, 2008 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Cahill says that you have to play wherever the manager puts you or you are in breach of your contract and the team doesn’t have to pay you. If thats the case, and it very well may be, then I think teams with bad contracts would simply tell the manager to put a player at a unusual position and if they didn’t want to play then they are off the hook. Maybe my anaolgy was a bit out there but what would stop a manager from putting say Andruw Jones at catcher if the Dodgers simply wanted out of his contract? How about making CHP play LF? When they disagree boom you are off the hook.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i cant imagine any
GM that would be bush league enough to try that. nor can i imagine any manager acquiescing to such an absurd request. their long-term credibility and respect in baseball would be seriously depleted.
this is not a situation where the rangers would be attempting to force michael out of the organization by putting him somewhere he doesnt want to be. it would be a legitimate baseball decision with the goal of doing what’s best for the team.
moving a guy to a new position obviously must be done with caution, to avoid hurt feelings and keeping the rest of the clubhouse from being divided or turning on the manager. but when it comes down to it, who are the players gonna respect more: the manager who stands by his decision to move a guy for the betterment of the team or the most highly paid player on the team whining about having to move 40 feet to his right?
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Sep 26, 2008 4:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait. . .
2B to LF is a larger fall down the defensive spectrum than SS to 3B. How is that less of a slap to the face?
by philkid3 on Sep 26, 2008 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my opinion
2B and LF are equal in terms of position prestige. 3B is not a bad position but SS is the most prestigious position on the field in my view. And I just don’t think you move a guy like Mike Young off SS for someone like Adam Everett. I think that would come across as a serious amount of disrespect to young and it would create a hell of a lot more problems than it solves.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 26, 2008 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"A guy like Mike Young"
You mean a $16 million, . 741 OPS “SS” with a bad glove?
Yeah, it’d be tragic if the Rangers didn’t fall all over themselves to respect that.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 26, 2008 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A guy like Mike Young
A guy who has spent his entire career, a very good career so far, with the organization. Playing his ass off during alot of mid 70 win seasons. A guy who the organization labeled as the face of the franchise.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 26, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Face of the franchise
for a 3rd and 4th place team.
If you can move a Hall of Famer like Cal Ripken to 3B, you can move freaking Michael Young, who has a skillet for a glove at SS to 3B.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 26, 2008 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This post
is what I’m talking about. MY has done everything asked of him while being here, and there is no doubt in my mind that he wants to win here. Like, asap. I totally agree SS to 3B is no “promotion”, but I think/hope MY would be receptive to anything the front office and coaching staff thinks will help this team win more games.
DJ just keeps bitching about how much he sucks (relative to his contract), but he doesn’t seem to suck as a human, and he has been the only stable leader this team has had over the last 5 years. There is no evidence he won’t lead by example here and make the move most fitting for the entire team.
If there were no rewards to reap,
no loving embrace to see me through this tedious path I've chosen here,
I certainly would've walked away by now... Be patient
by trident on Sep 26, 2008 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you think about it
Moving to 3B could indeed be a promotion of sorts. He’s got the paycheck, and taking a less demanding defensive position might enable him to condition himself for an uptick in both power and OBP, especially since the 200 hits per year every year is now gone. One thing he has shown without question is adaptability. And he’s not exactly an old man yet.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Sep 26, 2008 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Agree completely. He may be able to add back those ~20 pounds he lost in order to add range 2 years ago.
If there were no rewards to reap,
no loving embrace to see me through this tedious path I've chosen here,
I certainly would've walked away by now... Be patient
by trident on Sep 26, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its based on...
The way I think positions are percieved among players and fans. Aside from the pitcher the SS is the most recognized position o the field. Maybe that is because more balls go that way during a season. Maybe its because over the last several years we have had alot of really really good SS. Ripken, Jeter, ARod, Tejada, Nomar, etc.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 27, 2008 1:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has a lot more
option than you might think.
by Jea103 on Sep 25, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But then he won't be happy
If he is not happy, Kinsler is not happy
If Kinsler is not happy, rally monkey is very happy
by Telegraph on Sep 25, 2008 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ill tell kinsler, if he isn't happy,
he can mope about it in LF.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ARod Moved
Cal Ripken moved
Why the hell can’t MY move?
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Serious question
Why did Cal move. I can’t remember the circumstances. From the looks of things he came up as a 3B but moved to SS. Why did he move back. I really don’t know.
As for ARod. Theres this guy in NY you may have heard of him. Name is Derek Jeter. Hes kinda good and kinda like a god in that city. Do you really need to know why ARod moved?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He moved to 3B
for Manny Alexander.
Yes. That Manny Alexander. At some point, Baltimore decided Cal’s Defense at SS was a liability, and told him to move, even though he didn’t want to. Teams can do it anytime they want.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
Ripken moved to 3B in 1997. Manny Alexander was a NY Met in 1997. The Orioles signed Mike Bordick to play SS. So again I ask why did he move. Maybe someone who knows the answer can answer.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can use google too you know
Both before and after Ripken broke Gehrig’s record, some seized upon The Streak to criticize Ripken as a goal-oriented rather than team-oriented player. In 1996, the issue arose again when manager Davey Johnson expressed a desire to move Ripken to third base so that Manny Alexander could be tried at shortstop. Ripken’s thinly restrained dissatisfaction with the proposal wasn’t as compelling as his shrinking range and weakening arm, though, and Johnson made the move on July 15, ending Ripken’s streak of consecutive starts at shortstop at 2,216 games.
The light-hitting Alexander was a disappointment, and despite stellar defense at third Ripken slumped at the plate. As a result, the experiment was abandoned after six games. At the All-Star Game that season, Ripken’s nose was broken at the end of a pre-game photo session when White Sox pitcher Roberto Hernandez lost his balance and swung his forearm back, striking Ripken. Needless to say, Ripken played anyway.
In 1997, the Orioles acquired shortstop Mike Bordick and moved Ripken to third base permanently, a switch he seemed more willing to accept. Although he could no longer put up the big numbers he had earlier in his career, Ripken had a solid season both offensively and defensively at his new position. The switch made the Orioles a better defensive team all around, and they ended up winning their first American League East title since 1983, reaching the League Championship Series for the second straight year. Though the Orioles lost in six games to Cleveland, Ripken showed no signs of age or fatigue, batting .348 for the series with two doubles and his first career post-season home run.
http://www.baseballlibrary.com/ballplayers/player.php?name=Cal_Ripken_Jr_1960
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny Alexander
He was nowhere near the prospect Andrus is. In 95 Alexander spent the entire year in the majors playing 2B. He hit .236 with an OBP under .300. I can see why Ripken would be pissed about moving for that guy. Just like I can see MY being pissed about moving for an Adam Everett.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what?
He moved didn’t he? Soriano moved. I guarantee you if High Heat Nolan Ryan decided it was best for the team MY would move.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its respect
The guy has been here for what 8 years now. Through alot of losing seasons. You have recognized him as the face of the franchise. He unselfishly moved to SS when you brought in the more talented Soriano. Like I have said if you brought in a more talented Hardy or the more talented Andrus then I don’t think him moving will be an issue. But asking him to move for an inferiro player like Adam Everett or Cesar Izturis is disrespectful. Not only does MY take it as disrespect but other players around the league will view it as disrespect. And so when they get the chance to hit the FA market you are going to have a hell of a lot harder time convincing them to come here if your organization is viewed as one that disrespects veterans like MY. He is very well respected around the league by other players.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Cal moved for an inferior player
and only moved back because that player didn’t work out.
You really have no ground to stand on here.
He’d be viewed as a much better team leader if he willingly did what was best for the team.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is moving for an inferior player better for the team?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You think Izturis is an inferior defender?
Because that is all this conversation is about. Defense.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Izturis
His improvement over MY defensively doesn’t make up for his inferiorness defensively. Hes not THAT big of an improvement defensively to make MY move IMO
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jonathan
You bet your ass he would, because he’s a leader. All .200 OPS and negative range of his $3893854098sndjua331619498.99 ass is a leader, and he knows how many kids are watching him, and he would take his cough syrup like a man and head on over to the hot corner.
WHY DOES ANYONE THINK HE WON’T MOVE?!?!
If there were no rewards to reap,
no loving embrace to see me through this tedious path I've chosen here,
I certainly would've walked away by now... Be patient
by trident on Sep 26, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're honestly arguing
that MY has more power than Cal?
Cal moved — it’s just initially their replacement guy didn’t work out…
He moved back to SS once they had no other option.
I don’t understand how you can sit there and say they’re not similar situations.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
When did I argue that
Show me please.
Cal was hesitant to move for a guy who had played a full season in the majors and put up god awful numbers. He hadn’t been a top prospect who put up gaudy minor league numbers.
My argument is that you don’t simply move a veteran like MY for just any schlub off the street. You move them for legit talented players. JJ Hardy and Elvis Andrus would fall into that category. Adam Everett and Cesar Izturis do not.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You do what you need to do
to make the team better. Its about whats best for the team.
I think this is all hypothetical, because I honestly believe MY understands that, even if you don’t.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How does Everett or Izturis make this team better?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
By vastly improving
our infield defense. Or haven’t you noticed that MY has zero range at SS?
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think vastly is the correct term
Thus I don’t think either of those guys improves our team enough to warrant asking MY to move.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that is laughable
There’s not much else to say. “Discussing” this with you gives me tired head.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I gotta say is
you don’t know dick about baseball.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He may have been hesitant
But he made the move didn’t he?
So your argument is basically N/A.
Cal had more “weight” than MY will ever have and he moved. He may not have liked it — but he did it.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He sure did
For a whole 5 games midseason. I fail to see how that is the same as signing a FA in the offseason. Are we going to move Young back to SS after 5 games?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He only moved back to SS
because the guy they replaced him with was terrible.
Are you that dense that you don’t realize that if the other guy had worked out, Cal would’ve stayed at 3B?
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Btw Go look up Mike Bordick's stats
he wasn’t very good. Cal moved for him the next season.
What else you got?? Because right now you got nuthin
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Youre right
Bordick did suck. But MY isn’t 37 years old. Thats how old Ripken was when he moved. He moved for a guy 6 years younger than him. MY is 31. I imagine he probably feels he can play the position for awhile longer. You want to bring in a 25 year old like Hardy or a 20 year old like Elvis and it makes it easier to move Mike.
But obviously nothing I say is going to get you off this Ripken example. They are exactly the same. You win. Lets move MY to 3B and put Joaquin Arias at SS. Thats the ticket to the WS next year
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sarcasm isn’t helping you here.
I never said “they were exactly the same”
I said “they were similar”
But, keep doing what you do. It’s admirable, in a ridiculous kind of way.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only similarity is a guy moved from SS to 3B
That about it.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
They were considered the faces of their teams.
They were both in decline.
They were both considered leaders.
NM, you’re right, their positions are the only similar thing they have going for them.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are underrating their defense.
Izturis and Everett that is.
I would really like to believe this team is most interested in doing what it can to win, not letting someone play poorly at a position because he’s been on the roster for a long time.
by philkid3 on Sep 26, 2008 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is that ARod moved.
He’s an infinitely better player than MY is, and he moved without a peep. Yes, Jeter was there, and that’s why he moved.
But my point is if MY says he won’t move — there’s 2 great examples of much better players accepting the move.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is...
Adam Everett is not a Derek Jeter. And that situation is different from MYs also. ARod went to NY where Jeter already was and moved. Jeter didn’t move for ARod. If Jeter had moved for ARod then that would be a very valid example to point Micheal to.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff AJM
My only thing is that I think trading for a player based on defense is pretty tricky and has a good chance of biting this team in the ass if they make that deal. That’s a lot of talent to give up for one SS.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Sep 25, 2008 11:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
and you would have to turn around and trade one before 2010 or even at the trade deadline if andrus looks ready. I think I would rather start metcalf there for defense than trade away nice prospects/regulars for a 1 yr fix…
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this sentiment
I don’t thing Hardy’s defense makes up for the fact that his offensive production is limited (in the NL). Might as well just sign an Izturis/Everett if you’re that worried about defense and not give up any prospects. If you’re going to trade Hurley + a catcher then you should get more in return than Hardy IMO.
by hiafex on Sep 25, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Offense limited
He’s hitting pretty well, better than most SS. And I hardly think he’s likely to suddenly suck at defense even if his bat regresses slightly. He’ll be a valuable player.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
D
Do 26-y.o. players stand so much chance at regressing defensively?
I can understand if their swing weakens with age.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 25, 2008 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
regress
I just meant that he might not hit quite that well every year. THT’s PrOPS measurement indicates he’s been slightly lucky this year. His offense is still a plus and he’s a quality all around player.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd put money
on Hardy being more productive with a bat over the next 5 years than FoTF.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's only signed through 2010 though
I only see him as a stop-gap or trade bait and I don’t think Hurley + Salty/Teagarden + another pitcher is a good deal. I seriously think that Andrus could be as good as Hardy with the bat sometime next year. No need to deal Hurley + Salty/Teagarden if you’re going to have to trade Hardy within a year and a half and hope that you get some decent prospect in return.
by hiafex on Sep 25, 2008 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that the same Andrus
who ended up AA with a 717 OPS? That’s the guy who you think will be as good as Hardy with a bat next year?
I seriously, seriously doubt he will hit with a 800 OPS major league hitter next year. I think that is way, way too optimistic with how much he is likely to stumble as he goes through 2 levels. In 3 years maybe, but by next year? I think its pretty danged unlikely.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't trade that kind of package for a stop-gap
Fine, maybe by the end of next season Andrus will be ready. Still too much to give up for 1-1.5 years of Hardy since it probably wont make the team a legit playoff contender.
by hiafex on Sep 25, 2008 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can understand not wanting to make the trade because of the price.
However, I’m not sure if Hurley will be much more than a midrotation guy, and I’m not sure if Salty will ever be a good catcher.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a good reason to trade them away
Hurley would probably be a solid #3 in their rotation because their ballpark probably isn’t as homer-prone as ours. He’s only 22/23 and it sounds like you’re giving up on him already. I agree about Salty. I would rather trade him/package him for something other than a SS though.
by hiafex on Sep 25, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
You think Hardy’s performance is going to hold steady?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 25, 2008 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hold steady, no.
He’ll likely get better over the next 3 years.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re not basing that on MiLB numbers, though…
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 25, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I rarely
base much on MiLB numbers. If you based things on MiLB numbers, you’d release Andrus, because his MiLB numbers are fairly weak. However, Andrus, like Hardy, is young for his level, so you watch to see if he will actually do something to justify the hype.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy
His entire hitting career is below the level he’s hitting at this year. It’s a noticeable difference, but might be the light bulb just went on.
You’re right that he was young for each level, though, and got to AA around the same age Andrus has.
It’s a gamble, and comes down to rating Hardy’s D higher than Andrus. Cause really, the 20-yo version of Hardy is already in the org.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 25, 2008 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy had
a 786 OPS last year. That ain’t bad for a SS with a bigtime glove. Hell, if our current SS had that kind of OPS, you probably wouldn’t hear so many wolves at the door.
However, this idea that Andrus is a budding superstar, and Hardy is having a fluke year based on MiLB info is a little wacky to me.
By OPS
Hardy Andrus
Age 16 Rookie 775/742
Age 17 A 684
Age 18 Rookie 662/736 A+ 665/742
Age 19 A+/AA 736/566 AA 717
Age 20 AA 796
Age 21 AAA 825
It’s tough for me to say that Andrus looks head and shoulders better based on that data. Andrus still needs to have a big time season in the higher minors.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're nuts
Andrus might someday be a decent hitting SS, but there is no way in hell he’d be as good as Hardy next year.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, I was being too optimistic
But I still think it would be a better option to sign Everett/Izturis to a one year deal than trade for Hardy.
by hiafex on Sep 25, 2008 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice summary
Some quick points
1> Seems like a high price for what basically amounts to a stop-gap at SS. If you think Andrus is your long term answer at SS, then why trade a catcher+Hurley+mid-prospect pitcher for him? If the Brewers really want to move him, maybe you could get him cheaper.
1b> If you think that Hardy could be a long term solution (give us everything that Andrus will, minus the speed), and you are willing to trade Andrus for someone who can throw the ball, then I can see the logic better.
2> I agree that the fielding is one of the principal causes for this team’s problems, which really has to bias their catching decisions towards Laird and Tea. As promising as MaxRam and Salty are, this is a team that cannot afford any more sub-par fielding innings.
3> Ramon Vazquez isn’t a useful player on this team – a utility guy is only as good as his ability to handle positions he fills in for.
by JBImaknee on Sep 25, 2008 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
utility guy
While granted it would be nice to have a guy who could go give you gold glove caliber defense at multiple positions sitting on the bench its not feasible. A utility guys value is based on his versatility. If he is only going to play sparingly his defense is the last thing you should worry about. If his defense is passable then he is fine. I would rather have a utility guy that can go out and play 4,5,6 positions on the field even if they are a little below average over a guy who can only play 1 or 2 positions but plays average to above average defense. Vazquez having to play as much as he did this year exposed his defense more than if he was able to stay in his utility role.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but anyone can play many positions and not field well
"A utility guys value is based on his versatility. If he is only going to play sparingly his defense is the last thing you should worry about. "
I completely disagree with this. If a utility guy is going to play sparingly, defense should be the ONLY thing I worry about. I want a guy who can go in in the late innings as a defensive replacement. I want a guy.
There are lots of guys who can field very well (maybe not gold glove, but well) and not hit their way into a major league lineup. I’d rather have those guys in there, bit the bullet 2 nights a week when they give guys days off, than have a mediocre fielder just because he can hit okay.
by JBImaknee on Sep 25, 2008 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I agree
A utility guy who can play all the infield spots and play good defense would be the ideal….
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and if the guy is forced to start due to injuries
at least you can count on solid defense
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
utility players
I never mentioned anything about offense in my statement. My qualities I want in a utility player are in this order
versatility
acceptance of his position
defense
Like I said I want a guy who can play multiple positions. All 4 IF positions and possibly an OF spot. He has to accept that he is the utility guy. Not create a fuss about lack of playing time. Not get upset if he does well one game and then goes back to the bench. Defense is the last thing I worry about. If the starter goes down for a long time with an injury I hopefully have a replacement in the minors I can bring up to fill in.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but versatility implies defense
Jason Botts can play 7 positions on the field – doesn’t mean he’s good at them. By my definition, versatility means “an ability to field well at multiple positions of value to a team”.
by JBImaknee on Sep 25, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for looking at those interesting measures
I’ve been too lazy to do it myself.
So, your plan would be then, to trade hardy or andrus then as of 2010 right?
Also, if the plan is to bring Bradley and Cruz back for example, why not go ahead and start cruz or bradley in left, byrd in center and hambone if right? If you are going to make a change for the sake of defense, wouldn’t that also be an improvement (until borbon gets here post trade deadline)?
Wash has stated that if bradley comes back it would be as an outfielder as his knee will be 100 percent next year. Coming into this year he was regarding as a good OF and his main injuries seem to be arm or hammy related so I imagine he could/should move back there.
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I doubt that Byrd...
…is really any better in CF than Hamilton.
Hardy is a f.a. after 2010. I think he makes it more likely you can talk about moving Andrus, but my thought would be to plan on Andrus taking over for 2011 and letting Hardy walk and take the draft picks.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 25, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, Hardy for draft picks makes more sense,
assuming he would be Type A, but as gdawg pointed out, that is a lot to give up.
Also, doesnt Hamilton have a negative rating in CF as well? I think he did in the first half but he may have improved in the second half after getting used to the park…
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather have
Hurley (who looks like he can be a competent #4 or #5 on a “real” rotation), Poveda/Gomez, and a catcher than have Hardy for 2 years.
Hardy’s only had 1 year above 100 OPS+ (this year). Admittedly, he’s young, but it seems plausible that he’s just not that great of a player where you would want to give up that much for just 2 years.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
by willamos2 on Sep 25, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be ok with a starting catcher and a high-ceiling Lower level pitching prospect
or a back rotation starter (Hurley or Hunter or feldman) but I like Poveda better than Kiker at the moment and would not move him (and Gomez is hurt so I doubt he would even be considered by a trade partner).
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take it farther
Given Hardy’s relative youth and apparent prowess on defense and at least adequate bat, why not just keep him around for a few years? In 2010 or 2011 you can make a decision about Hardy vs. Andrus.
That price tag would spook a lot of fans, but I don’t think it’s too much. I’d much rather deal Gomez than Poveda, and I might start negotiations by offering someone less than Hurley. Hurley is cheap and under team control for longer than Hardy, and so are the catchers, excepting Laird.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 11:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
thru 2010
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like it.
I think I’d like to give up Laird as that catcher.
by FuturePants on Sep 25, 2008 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, sure
I think it would take one of three young ones.
If we could do it for Salty, Hurley and a non-premium pitching prospect below AA, you do it.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 25, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats more palatable
Or a Catcher and a premium pitching prospect below AA.
If the rangers trade for a front rotation starter during the winter I’d be more than willing to give up Hurley, though I wonder if a team would take a risk on him since he was shut down for the year with a sore shoulder…
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really good read, Adam.
Why can’t we trade Laird instead of Salty?
and please, no more trades of young pitchers, especially the good ones like Hurley.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if Hardy really is that good
why wouldn’t you consider trading Andrus and giving Hardy an extension?
Hardy is 26 years old and not quite in his prime. He seems like a player you’d want to be a part of your long-term core.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The other option
is move one of Andrus/Hardy (probably Andrus) to 2B, and consider moving Kinsler to CoF if he doesn’t show marked improvement next year defensively. It’s tough to make the argument any more that Kinsler’s bat wouldn’t play at a COF position.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 26, 2008 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andrus
Because Andrus is 6 years younger and will cost alot less than Hardy. Thats money that can be spent on pitching remember
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if Andrus
is the 21st Century version of “Manos de oro” (Nelson Norman) and can’t hit in The Show?
We know Hardy is a major league ready SS on the doorstep of his prime.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But we aren't getting Hardy for his offense
And Elvis’ defense has been said to be ML ready now
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam's column says that Hardy
is rated as the top DEFENSIVE SS in the major leagues.
The fact that he’s a damn good hitter is some nice frosting on the cake.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
But if Elvis can give you good defense at SS and somewhat average offense at the plate doesn’t the fact that he costs alot less make him the better option? Hardy will probably make about 8 million the next two seasons in arbitration. Andrus will make about $800,000 his first two seasons in the bigs. Is Hardys offense and slight defensive advantage worth 7 million dollars and 6 years?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big Steve, Are we trying to win games
or are we trying to make money for Tom Hicks?
And yes, the certainty of knowing that Hardy’s offense & defense in The Show are better than Andrus and the fact that he is in his prime as a player is worth $ 7 million.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is
that the $7M could be better spent elsewhere.
by jwiscarson on Sep 25, 2008 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For another crap package
like Broussard & Jennings?
We would have certainty in somebody like Hardy and know what he is.
Andrus might be Jose Reyes but he’s probably closer to Nelson Norman.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
That’s why we want JD to save money by using prospects — so we can have bad free agent signings in a rebuilding year.
Don’t be coy — you know just as well as the rest of us that JD took a flier on those guys in the hopes that he could make a deadline trade for prospects. They were both bad signings this year, but the Gagne and Lofton signings were pretty far from that the previous year, and were done for exactly the same reasons.
Playoff-bound teams almost always add pieces at the trading deadline. Having an extra $7M around to absorb another bullpen arm’s contract would be worth it for a playoff run. Cheap prospects give us long-term roster flexibility, and that’s pretty meaningful to good teams.
by jwiscarson on Sep 25, 2008 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're talking to a guy
who doesn’t believe the Lofton team was an amazing signing for the Rangers or even a positive one. He sees that signing and the Carlos Lee deal as being 2 big failures.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Sep 25, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Lofton signing was not
amazing because he didn’t help a team that thought they had a chance to make the playoffs win. Putting a 40 year old in CF is stupid and it’s not coincidental 2007 was Lofton’s last year.
The trade for Max Ramirez has a chance to give the Lofton signing a happy ending.
The Carlose Lee trade has a chance to be good if Cruz can play but it’s been 2 plus years and he still hasn’t had a full year in The Show.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lofton was a low risk signing
that paid off well, you’re crazy. Lofton had an OPS+ of 116 while in Texas, and Daniels parlayed that into Max Ramirez. That’s a win on both ends. Daniels has made some bad trades and quesionable signings, but the Lofton and Gagne deals worked out very, very well.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Josey Wales
Has no reason for hating the Lofton signing. It didn’t look bad up front and it looks great on the back end. He complains about it in multiple threads today and eventually just runs out of gas for his hattred and moves it to a new thread.
by FuturePants on Sep 25, 2008 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gagne & Lofton trades have
a chance to work out very well.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, they don't have a chance
they have already worked out very well. They didn’t cost that much; both played well when here; and a lot of talent was acquired in those deals. No matter what happens from here on out, those deals are wins in every possible sense.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not just the cost of money
It’s also the players you’d have to give up to get Hardy
by chrisR on Sep 25, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can trade Laird
I just doubt that the Brewers would do a deal of Hardy for Laird and some things that don’t include young pitchers.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 25, 2008 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well then dont trade with them
we have already tried out that trading young pitching thing, its not for us
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 25, 2008 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like agreeing with Josey, but he's right
I’m actually okay with trading Hurley, but lets be realistic – it isn’t going to happen. Here is a guy touted by the local press as a future lock in our rotation, and you think the Rangers can trade him for a fielder? Never will happen. Its a PR disaster – JD would have to pull a Ross Perot and buy TV time to go on with graphs showing why improved fielding equals better pitching to stop the riots from overtaking RBIA.
Fair or not, proposing trading Hurley for anyone who doesn’t step on the mound it unrealistic. And after the Danks / McCarthy deal, its unlikely that Hurley will even be traded for a pitcher
by JBImaknee on Sep 25, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last winter i would have agreed
Now I can accept trading off a guy like Hurley. Last winter Harrison had been shut down after coming over in a trade, Feliz was not the phenom he is today, Hunter had just been drafted, Beavan hadn’t thrown a pro pitch yet, Holland was just another guy.
That would have been a bad time to trade the only guy really thought of to be ready to pitch this seaosn in the majors. But now we have harrison showing signs of promise in the majors. Hunter breaking into the bigs in his first full season. Holland and feliz making huge strides this year and becoming two of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. beavan had a nice first year. Kiker continued to pitch well.
It would be easier to trade away Hurley now than a year ago
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes but of all those guys you mentioned,
ONE is ml-ready and he isnt really lighting it up, although i do like harrison
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 25, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of those guys I mentioned
I could see 4 of them pitching in Arlington at some point next year. Harrison will be for sure, Hunter most likely will and Feliz and Holland could possibly be September callups.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you really think harrison is gonna be better than hurley?
and september call-ups are for uno month
hunter
↓↓↓↓↓
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 25, 2008 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they will be about the same
My point was at this time last year the only young pitcher we had that we could legitimately think would be pitching in Arlington in 2008 was Hurley. harrison had just gotten to AA and was injured. Hunter was nowhere on the ML radar. Same with Feliz and Holland.
Now all 4 either have or are about to be pitching in Arlington. It makes it easier to trade another young pitcher
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hurley has 2 good off-speed pitches with low 90s fastball,
harrison has 2 average off-speed pitchs with a high 80s, low 90s fastball.
imo hurley will be better
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 25, 2008 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hurley's off speed pitches aren't any better than Harrison's
and this year at least, his fastball wasn’t any better either.
"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve
by tricer on Sep 25, 2008 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes but hurley is still better. he had one bad year this year but he made some improvements until he got hurt
before this year, he was great
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 26, 2008 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He hasn't been "great" since moving to AAA
Not saying hes not good but the term great shouldn’t be doled out to guys like him.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 26, 2008 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good, whatever, he has better stuff than harrison and better numbers in the minors overall
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 26, 2008 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so much
Harrison career minor league ERA: 3.45
Hurley career minor league ERA: 3.97
Harrison gave up about 1 more hit per 9 innings than Hurley.
Hurley walked 1 more per 9 innings than Harrison
Hurley struck out 2 more per 9 innings.
Id say they were pretty equal except that Harrisons numbers didn’t dramatically rise as he got promoted. Hurleys did.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 26, 2008 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly more strikeouts, less hits,
era isnt as important in the minors as it is in the pros
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 26, 2008 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their WHIPs were identical
That means they allowed the same amount of baserunners per inning. So what if one guy gets his three outs by groundout or flyout and the other strikes out a guy. Ks are good but a mere 2 more ks per 9 when all the other stats are similar doesn’t make one great.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 27, 2008 1:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so what?
a strikeout means you dont rely on your defense, it generally means you have better stuff, it means you can get out of a jam
so are scott baker and roy oswalt the same this year?
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 27, 2008 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't be afraid to agree with Josey
because many times (but not always) you will astound others with your knowledge of all things Great Game.
It’s all about presentation, my friend. :)
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a reallly good point, I think...
to bigsteve’s point, I think we see things a lot clearer than the average fan. I think Hurley is someone who’s been promoted as a big piece in the future, and the average fan won’t understand that we have a plethora of young pitching coming up. They’ll just see it as us trading away another home-grown young pitcher on the cusp of making it into the major leagues.
I think Hurley makes the most sense, but if we could move another young pitcher whose name hasn’t been in the press as much regarding the future of the franchise, then I do it.
by jwiscarson on Sep 25, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Hurley
Who gives a crap about the average fan. Now, if it were Harrison, fans would complain. Besides, I want JD to give Josey and Seth another arrow in their quiver of bitchin about trading people for crap.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
by WyoRanger on Sep 25, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
trading hurley would be a disaster
thats like trading romo for a guy who only plays in the regular season
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 25, 2008 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the front office cares about the average fan
because average fans still fill the seats in Arlington.
by jwiscarson on Sep 25, 2008 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The success of the Hamilton/volquez trade
makes that a non-issue now. And with Hurley having a questionable third pitch I wouldnt have a problem with it. For a back rotation guy, I’d rather have a lefty starter pitchability guy there rahter than a RH starter anyways.
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you overestimate
The average fan’s interest in our young players.
Honestly, especially in DFW, it’s Cowboys season and NBA pre-season begins next week.
We could trade Chris Davis, Neftali Feliz, and Elvis Andrus for Barry Zito and it wouldn’t make major headlines.
by venturafearsnolan on Sep 25, 2008 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Solid analysis Adam
Everyt point made is valid, and Hardy is a brilliant solution if he can be had. I never had thought about that.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Sep 25, 2008 11:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
totally agree. My concern is regarding Young at 3b. I know it keeps getting suggested, but 1- doesn’t that make us have a very below average hitting 3b? 2- Will he be willing?
With that said, does M. Young have any value on the trade market? I know his contract is horrendous, but if we paid 5 million per season of his contract, would teams want him? If so, I would look at moving him to a team such as the dodgers.
While I like this idea, I just haven’t heard anything from the rangers brass that has acknowledged M. Young is a bad or even average SS. I fear that his stature has made them blind to the reality and thus we’ll keep him like the Yankees will keep Jeter.
by aggiecurt05 on Sep 25, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yankees are way
down on Cano right now, have a lot of money coming off the books, didn’t make the playoffs, are moving to a new place and supposedly MYoung and ARod were tight when they played together in Texas.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading MY
But who plays 3rd? I truly think MY could be an average defensive 3Bman with a below average bat (although not a great deal below average 3B production). Blalock’s out, CD can’t provide the D, Metcalf can’t provide the O. I don’t see a need for trading MY and then trying to replace both 3B and SS. If the Rangers have to pay MY to play for another team, they might as well pay him to play 3B for the Rangers.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
by WyoRanger on Sep 25, 2008 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
MY has little to no value
on the trade market. You might be able to move him if you ate enough of the contract, but even then, you wouldn’t get much back. However, even that is likely a pipe dream with his no trade.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hurley?
really?
i’d rather give up someone else personally
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
by ab03 on Sep 25, 2008 12:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
also
since you called it a modest proposal, i was expecting a more hair brained scheme – like swapping lineups with the astros. or having the infield eat young rangerlings
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
by ab03 on Sep 25, 2008 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1 for the J. Swift ref
+1 even if it wasn’t
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry to nit-pick, but...
I believe the colloquialism is “harebrained”.
by jwiscarson on Sep 25, 2008 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ditto about the modest part
Nothing modest about a major trade like that.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
while i...
…really like the proposition, and think thats probably the best arguement i’ve seen for such a move… a) there would be a landslide of “the rangers trade more young pitching away” comments from anyone that can get a soap box to stand on and b) i think its toomuch to give up for hardy… and while think think we tend to over value our own trade chips(just like everyone else) i think a quality, or better, young catcher, a young middle of the rotation pitcher, and a b level prospect are a lot to give up… especially if we are only getting 2 prospects when hardy walks… i think laird/hurley might do it… if they bring up anyone with relatively high upside as a thrown in though, i’m laughing.. both of those guys are under control for a while… plus hurley’s value isn’t really high right now, due to his shoulder issues, and i can’t see him returning as much value as he should..
but i really like jj hardy … where do you hit him in that lineup??
"He wont have anything. 1 man, 0 tools."~ hiafex bout longhorn...
by ivysafety39 on Sep 25, 2008 12:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
hit Hardy 5th
between Hamilton and Davis. he has hit sixth in Milwaukee.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about MaxRam and K. Gomez for Hardy?
the Brewers choice of a catcher, Eric Hurley, and someone like Kennil Gomez or Omar Poveda be enough for Hardy
Is way too much to give up in my opinion.
by coolaid on Sep 25, 2008 12:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
btw
I am not totally sold on Hardy offensively.
by coolaid on Sep 25, 2008 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would take a chance on Hardy.
Because after an injury plagued 2006, he has put together two consistent years at the plate. This year’s results have shown he is healthy.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't give up on Hurley
I don’t believe in JJ’s offense. And I’m not ready to see another Ranger HS draft pick that’s been “groomed” for years in the system shipped off to “blossom” somewhere else… not to mention tossing in catching that should get more on its own.
"Purity of heart is to will one thing" - Kierkegaard
by outofnace on Sep 25, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the Hardy idea
Any chance Melvin would take Salty + Madrigal instead? Torres has had a pretty good year, but his k rate is pretty ugly, and the rest of their bullpen doesn’t look too hot either…
by jcir454 on Sep 25, 2008 12:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Run Differential
The few posts I’ve made recently have been harping on our run differential. It’s been bad this year, much worse than our record obviously.
However, looking at third order winning percentage (the next break down of things that go into the RS and RA) the Rangers improve from 11th in the AL to 9th. Not a huge improvement, but a little better than RA/RS would suggest. FYI, it is a significant leap from 9th to 8th, fwiw.
So that itself is a nice improvement on next years RA/RS.
Should the team actually pickup a number of “easy” runs by juggling defensive positions that’s another couple of ticks up in the standings.
Add those two items to our young guys improving and more developing and we should take a very solid step forward next year.
Making a major shift in defense and improving there dramatically has made a huge difference for the Rays. Granted they have more to work with than the Rangers, but making some moves like AJM suggests is akin to what they did and worked out nicely.
by gr7070 on Sep 25, 2008 12:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Won't happen and I'm actually
kind of surprised how widely accepted this idea has been so far. Andrus is your SS of the future. You don’t trade Hurley and a Catcher if not more to get a stop gap SS. Do you think the Rangers are gonna get a CC or Sheets or trade for a SP/RP and drastically improve the pitching/bullpen? Because this is gonna further hype the “Rangers always trade away young pitching” rhetoric. Especially if Hurley does good. I highly doubt Hardy’s defense is gonna make that much of a difference. I see no point in this trade what so ever. The only thing I can think of is keeping Hardy here long term and trading Andrus to help get pitching in here.. Then it would start making a little bit of sense.
by AirJordan on Sep 25, 2008 12:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes that is how it might make sense
You either get draft picks (hopefully type A) if he leaves or you could sign him to an extension, though that is risky as he might choose FA and then we could get outbid. So it seems that you could consider him more than a stopgap.
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hold on a minute
What’s the point in giving up young players for a stop-gap player — even a very good one? This team is still several years away. Good piece though.
by egriffey on Sep 25, 2008 12:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not a stopgap
Hardy is much more than a stopgap player. You gain quite a bit on defense without losing offense, and you’ve improved ALL of the pitchers in one fell swoop. The Tampa chapter of the BBWAA just voted SS Jason Bartlett the team MVP because of his defense. They’re wrong about him being MVP, but right about how much his defense has helped their pitching this year. Tampa had a terrible defense last year, but has been much improved this year on the left side of the infield.
If the Rangers made such moves, they would of course not automatically be in the position that Tampa is in right now, but it would be a big step in the right direction.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please...
You gain quite a bit on defense without losing offense, and you’ve improved ALL of the pitchers in one fell swoop.
Let’s not forget that Hardy has medicinal powers, and can single-handedly make starting rotations immune to injuries.
by oc on Sep 26, 2008 2:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't think
improving the defense helps the pitching? Prove me wrong instead of just making a snide remark. Injuries have nothing to do with whether Young or Hardy is at SS.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 26, 2008 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember some of the phrases that were being tossed around here last March?
If Padilla can come back healthy…
If McCarthy can stay healthy…
If Jennings can come back healthy…
If Gabbard can stay off the DL…
After trading for J.J. Hardy, here are some of the phrases that will be tossed around NEXT March…
If Millwood can stay healthy…
If McCarthy can come back healthy…
If Hurley can stay off the DL…
If Harrison can figure it out…
Hardy is a fine player. Does he make this starting rotation any more reliable?
by oc on Sep 26, 2008 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Irrelevant and unrelated topic.
No one here is suggesting that Hardy will also act as the trainer and pitching coach. But yes, if the defense is better, then EVERY starter has a better chance of success. Of course, they also need to stay healthy, but that could be said of every single pitcher in baseball. Some of that is just bad luck, the Rangers had an extraordinary number of injuries this year and you simply cannot blame all of them on the pitchers, management, coaches, trainers, etc.
The things they can control a bit more are:
- infield defense. A shitload of room for improvement here.
- outfield defense. Improved over 2007 with more rangy guys, but could be better still.
- pitcher/catcher defense. This was pretty bad this year, too. This needs focused time over the winter and in spring training.
- throw more effin’ strikes
Only one of these elements is being dealt with in this thread – defense on the left side of the infield. I have said nothing remotely controversial in agreeing with Adam that Hardy would be a big improvement there.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 26, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is very much a relevant and related topic...
The big-league ready pitcher and catcher you deal for Hardy?… See, that leaves you with one less pitcher and catcher to trade for a top-of-the-rotation “strikeout” pitcher.
And since we’re not dipping our dicks in the free-agent pitching pool… that leaves you with one less option.
You said it yourself, no one is saying the pitching can’t be better…
Well, holy fuck… let’s keep running the same old shit out there, injuries and all, and pray… once again… for our “ifs” to come true.
Love defense. Need the pitcher first.
by oc on Sep 26, 2008 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You need both, idiot
you are completely talking around my point. Walter Johnson in his prime would have an ERA over 5.00 with this defense. Where/when did I say we didn’t need pitching? And I have not advocated trading away Hurley, though I think Adam’s valuation is close.
I have said nothing in this thread about not improving the pitching. Nothing at all. Nothing, nada, zip. I do think you’re being a bit optimistic, though, calling Hurley a top of the rotation pitcher. He’s Rick Helling, not Pedro. Valuable, but not an ace in waiting.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 26, 2008 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say Hurley was an ace, "idiot."
I said he should be dealt for one.
And even with an “average” defense behind them… guys like Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy are still, at best, “average.”
They’re not all that good… and given that each of them have spent considerable time on the disabled list the past two seasons, it’s a stretch to think all of them will suddenly click at once.
That was supposed to happen THIS year. McCarthy put on some pounds, Millwood was in shape… Padilla was back at full strength…
…All of them went down.
This is why a top-of-the-rotation pitcher should be the first priority. Because, quite simply, none of these guys have shown themselves to be reliable.
The Twins, with a shitty defense, had four starters throw more than 146 innings this year.
The Rangers… two.
by oc on Sep 26, 2008 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Average
would be an updgrade for this rotation right now, and the Twins defense is a hell of a lot better than the Rangers.
Listen, I agree with you. I would love to have a top of the rotation starter, but I think the chances of it happening are next to nothing. Hicks, Ryan, and Daniels have all said they’re not signing a big free agent contract, and the chances of getting an ace in trade are pretty damn slim.
We’re going to have to be patient another couple of years. I am as frustrated as you are about that, but I wish you would stop taking it out on your fellow LSB posters. You’ve been downright pissy lately.
All of this talk of Hardy may be pointless anyway. If the cost is Hurley I don’t really see it happening. Fans might storm the ballpark if he’s traded after everything else that’s happened with pitching the last few years.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 26, 2008 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another question...
Can someone explain the +/- system? I looked at THT’s player pages, comparing Michael Young and J.J. Hardy (on RZR), but I don’t see a mention of this.
Confusingly, THT has MY’s RZR at .851 and Hardy’s RZR at .831. MY has turned 12 more DPs than Hardy, and has fielded way more balls in the zone…so I wonder how much that’s effected the RZR calculation.
by jwiscarson on Sep 25, 2008 12:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it is just a measure of how many plays
were made/should have been made by a player. Not sure how they calculate it but maybe you could google the “dewan” that adam mentions:
Look at John Dewan’s +/- system, Michael Young hasn’t been as bad at shortstop this year as he had historically — he’s at a -6 plays on the year. Ramon Vazquez has been at -1 at shortstop. That’s -7 for the Ranger shortstops, defensively.
So the Ranger third basemen are at -31 plays for the season…a remarkably bad performance. Combined with the shortstop performance, the Rangers left side defense made 38 fewer plays than average.
by Goyogringo on Sep 25, 2008 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy is a good solution, IMO.
And your proposal has some legs, especially if it’s Salty (the least useful Ranger catcher, IMO), Hurley (the least of the Rangers’ elite pitching prospects, IMO) and a palatable throw-in.
My fear, though, is that the Brewers would ask for more. My question is: would you do Salty and Holland for Hardy?
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
by ghtd36 on Sep 25, 2008 12:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
NO!
Holland and Feliz are untouchable in my opinion. Could you believe a Sabathia, Lowe, Holland, Feliz rotation in 2010!?! Yikes.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowe will be 39 in 2010
I wouldn’t be too excited by that
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The time to go after Lowe
was when he was a free agent after the 2004 season.
4 years / $ 36 million.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes sense and helps pitching.
I like the idea VERY much. Here is how it would actually HELP our pitching too.
We let Bradley go and save $10 million, we let Hank go and save $6 million and we include either Padilla or Millwood in the deal to save another $11-12 million. Now we have about $28 million to work with. Can’t you get the 2 starters and 2 bullpen arms Wash says we need for that money? Or do we offer $23 million/year to CC Sabathia and see if he takes it. If he likes Milwaukee, he will like Texas with no income tax and better offense. He wants to be happy and comfortable.
Even if Sabathia takes the $23 million/year offer, I would immediately give Derek Lowe $10-12 million a year for two years with a 3rd year option. If they both take the offers, we have added two quality starters for just an extra $7 million in payroll! (7 + the 28 savings from the previous moves. If Sabathia doesn’t sign, you then have some options for trading for the 2nd starter to add to Lowe.
Hardy is acquired to be the starting shortstop for 2009 and perhaps 2010. Great defense and 30hr, 100 rbi (in RBiA) is exactly what we need at SS. You bat Hardy in the 5 hole between Hamilton and Davis. But by signing Sabathia and Lowe, you can afford to give Andrus 2009 in Oklahoma City and then see where you want to go in 2010… meaning signing Hardy long-term or trading him, or moving Andrus up or trading him.
Then you have a rotation of Sabathia, Lowe, Harrison, McCarthy and Feldman to start in 2009 and you don’t HAVE to make ANY more pitching moves. You can trust the kids and break them in slowly by letting them pitch at AAA or in the ML bullpen.
Then you have Davis, Kinsler, Hardy and Young in the infield… Murphy/Byrd, Hamilton and Cruz in the outfield… and Teagarden and Ramirez catching.
By trading for Hardy and signing Sabathia and Lowe, you have the chance to solidify the infield defense while helping the pitching get to the top half of the league. We don’t need to have the best pitching to win, just consistent average pitching.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 12:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
huh?
When did Milton sign a $10 million deal?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And
good luck getting someone to take Millwood or Padilla off our hands without either us getting a huge bad contract back in return (think CHP for Nevin) or us pay a majority of the contract.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brewers need pitchers
If they lose Sabathia and Sheets, they will need a replacement/one year stop gap for their rotation. Solves a problem for them too.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said
nobody will take them without us either paying the contract anyway or them trading us a bad contract. So this notion that we can get out from under their contracts is dumb
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both are reasonable contracts
So I think you could add another low prospect in exchange for picking up the contract of either Millwood or Padilla.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They may be reasonable to the Yankees
or Red Sox. But the Brewers are not going to want to pay those contracts. Not gonna happen. The teams that would probably pay those either don’t need pitching or don’t want Millwood or Padilla. The time to trade them is during the season.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree.
If you give them a starting catcher (Laird/Salty) and potentially two starting pitchers (Padilla/Hurley or Millwood/Hurley), I think the Brewers do the deal. Fills the holes they have at minimal cost.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think there is any way
the Brewers eat those contracts.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
just one contract
Millwood or Padilla, then Laird at a modest $2 mil and Hurley at entry level.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa
So we went from Millwood/Padilla and a low level prospect to a ML starting catcher and two ML starting pitchers just to clear up payroll?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Millwood and Padilla
I think you overstate how onerous their contracts are.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 25, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Millwood is pretty
much Jeff Suppan these days and they make similiar $$$$.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither one is really that expensive, especially when you look at some of the so-so pitchers who are making more money. Pitching ain’t cheap.
by FuturePants on Sep 25, 2008 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Millwood >>>>>> Jeff Suppan
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Sep 25, 2008 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
contracts
Their contracts aren’t really that bad. But a team like Milwaukee is not going to want either of those guys in a trade. Most teams wouldn’t want them in a trade unless either the Rangers eat some of the contract or that team can pawn a bad contract off on us. The teams that could absorb those contracts probably don’t need either one of them. Especially not in the winter when there are so many other options out there. During the season you can possibly get a team to take them because of circumstances not forseen in the winter. Say a team is in the playoff picture and wants a veteran starter and one of them is doing really well. But in the winter I highly doubt a team would be willing to take either of them off our hands for free.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He hasn't...
… but that is what he is going to want. A mutli-year deal worth at least $10 million.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it
He’ll probably only get about $8 mil guaranteed with incentives. But the point is you cannot assume that and take that off next years payroll. You can take off Blalocks because he technically does have a contract.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe you can
because if the team does have an interest in Milton, they would have spent that money. Meaning it is available to be spent on the right deal. I would rather spend Bradley’s and Hank’s money on a pitcher and take my chances.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rangers
Right now the rangers have almost $55 million locked up in contracts for next year (that includes hanks option). That does not include all the arbitration and pre-arbitration players. A rough estimate says add another 12-15 mil for them. Also there is the possibility of locking hamilton up long term which would include a raise over the $500,000 he will make next year. So you are looking at a payroll of around $70 mil without signing any FAs. Your $20 million increase will jump us to around $90 million. While I don’t think that is too much to expect from Hicks I don’t think he will jump there in one winter. I think it will take a couple winters before we are back to the $100 million payroll range again
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was actually expecting
a cut in payroll given where attendance was this year.
I don’t see a $ 90-100 million payroll happening in Texas with Tom Hicks as the owner for the next several years.
He’s very, very comfortable with a $ 70 million payroll and the lowest attendance in 20 years is not going to dissuade him.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is why I would...
Trade Laird (saves $2 million) replaced by Ramirez
Trade Byrd (saves $3 million) replaced by Boggs
Trade Benoit (saves $3.5 million)
Buyout Hank (saves $6 million) replaced by Metcalf
Each of those four players is replaced with a minimum wage player, meaning you would save almost $13 million next year with just those four moves.
If you trade for Hardy ($3 mil) you have still saved $10 million.
There is the money for Lowe or another mid level starter while keeping a $70-ish million payroll.
I agree getting to 90-100 mil might be too much for one winter. But any hope given with solid moves this off season will bring back the 400,000 tickets that weren’t sold this year and maybe more.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
First you mentioned Benoit
Hardy will make about 4 million in arbitration this year I imagine. What good does a mid level starter do this team. Lowe made 10 million this year and with his numbers and the market this year I imagine he will want 12-15 mil. So unless you can get him on a one year deal i wouldn’t do it. When this club is in full out WS caliber mode Lowe will be 39 years old and if hes making 15 million that is a bad deal.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 25, 2008 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabathia
is not coming to Arlington. He won’t want to pitch here and no one in the front office has said anything but negatives about going all out on a free agent contract like that. It is not going to happen. They are focused on the long term and are not going to build for 2009 at the expense of that long term goal.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I don’t have a problem with not seeking out Sabathia, but I’d still rather sign CC than Sheets. God help whatever team signs him to a $22MM/5-7 year deal.
by FuturePants on Sep 25, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post Adam!
That was a great idea I hadn’t thought of in acquiring Hardy. What creativity.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually
I think AJM’s mentioned the idea of Hardy before. This time he has more detail and rationale. He likes to float this every once in a while so it doesn’t look like he’s campaigning for it (which he is, and I agree with it).
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
by WyoRanger on Sep 25, 2008 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Says who?
Sabathia hasn’t said he won’t pitch here. We know he can pitch in the American League and is worth the premium money. Just by signing CC, you would probably get the 400,000 tickets back and then some.
I am of the opinion the front office doesn’t want the other teams to know what they are thinking. I also believe CC would consider Texas because pitching is what they need, the future is bright and hopefully he would see that.
The long-term is 2010 in my opinion. Nothing in my ides hurts the 2010 goal AT ALL… it strengthens the pitching and gives the team more options to consider when building a roster for 2010.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 25, 2008 1:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Says Hicks, Daniels, Ryan
They’ve all said something like they are not planning on going after big free agent signings. Sabathia would qualify as a big signing I think. It is not going to happen.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too costly
Who wouldn’t love to have a defensively talented short stop? But at what cost?
The heaviest statistical evidence given to support the Hardy idea highlights the defensive shortcomings of Rangers third basemen, not MY. Therefore, I would focus on a short term improvement on defense at 3rd, not making a huge and costly improvement at short. Particularly with Andrus in the hole.
If we could upgrade 3rd base D just to average, without significantly degrading the offense (how likely is it that the replacement would underperform this year’s 3rd sackers), why not do that, for a much lower cost to the organization.
by Back Door Yakker on Sep 25, 2008 1:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I love the idea
I don’t really have a problem with including Hurley. I know people would freak about it, but for the next couple of years, the rotation is going to be somewhat crowded with Padilla, Millwood, Harrison, Hunter, Feldman…not to mention Feliz/Holland not that far off. I think Hurley is expendable.
Can you imagine Galloway’s reaction? Man, that would be a classic column.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
Frankly, saying that Hurley is expendible because we have Padilla, Millwood, Harrison, Hunter, Feldman (and McCarthy) seems really optimistic. With that collection of pitchers, the rotation isn’t crowded because none of them are guaranteed to even be average next year. Plus, Padilla and Millwood only have a year left (unless Millwood manages to pitch 180 innings next year). And really, the same argument could have been made last year. Volquez was expendible because we already had Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Gabbard, and Jennings. (Not that the Volquez trade was bad, just that the argument is bad).
I’m just as optimistic as the next guy about the pitching coming up through the system, but can we really say that the rotation is crowded? How confident are you that we can get 30 starts out of any of those guys? Think about all the starting pitchers we went through this year and how we still have a hard time getting 6 innings out of a pitcher. There’s no real way to quantify this, but having quality starting pitching depth beyond the opening day rotation would probably help our starters ERA (more competition, better starters available at AAA, etc.) and our bullpen ERA (less innings, flexibility to move starters to the bullpen, etc.) more than the defensive upgrade would help.
As an aside, I think our best case scenario for next year would be to have Hurley, Harrison, and Hunter all starting out in AAA to start the year because, if history is any indication, we’ll need them by May.
Not that we shouldn’t ever trade pitching. But I think we’re so smitten with prospects that we’re fooled into thinking that we have a surplus to spend. It’s a shame too, because trading for Hardy would make some sense.
by cstorm15 on Sep 25, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well maybe "expendable"
was too strong a word.
I just think Hurley is one of the guys I wouldn’t be too broken up about losing.
I guess after thinking about it, that price seems pretty steep to pay. I don’t think I’d hate the deal, but it seems like a bit much.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great job Adam!!!!!
Great analysis.
Great perspective.
Solid option to improve the team.
Some of the best work I’ve seen on this site ever.
Great job Mr. Morris.
Peace
by Bigfan16 on Sep 25, 2008 2:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
OT - Those Crazy Mariners wanted to do physical harm to Ichiro
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/26888002/
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 25, 2008 2:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
As good a player as Hardy is
BA HR RBI OBP SLG
.288 24 73 .348 .486
I think it would take a lot to get him here, they would likely want TT or Salty or Max plus some pitching, and none of the rangers rag pitching, but some of the better guys, i would love to have Hardy on the team, but it would cost.
by TRFAN on Sep 25, 2008 2:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You're impressed by that line
Don’t forget that he plays in the NL
by hiafex on Sep 25, 2008 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's also
young, and likely to improve, while the incumbent SS is likely to regress.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd understand the trade if we didn't have Andrus in the system
Andrus is what… 6 years younger? He’s also faster and seems to have much more upside than Hardy.
by hiafex on Sep 25, 2008 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam says his metrics show
that Hardy is the best defensive SS in MLB this year. Andrus has more upside than that?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plays in the NL?
And? Those are stout numbers from a good glove at SS in either league.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I'm saying is that I don't think Hardy is the kind of guy
That we should be trading this kind of package for. I’d understand trading Hurley + Salty for a 3rd base prospect but not a SS prospect.
by hiafex on Sep 25, 2008 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Michael Young to 3B worries me.....
When I watch MY field a ball, it seems like the first thing he does is get out of the way of the ball and fields it to his side…….as if he is scared of it taking a bad hop.
If he goes to 3B, then he will have less time to react and will be still in the process of dodging the ball instead of fielding it.
This will make him want to move back a little to get more time to see it, thus making him have to make a harder throw over to first, potentially causing throwing errors. With him back, we might see some surprise bunts come his way as well…..
…but what the hell do I know??
i like baseball too
by bspate on Sep 25, 2008 3:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
With all due respect...
You are out of your mind if you think a major league shortstop is scared of a bad hop to the point that it is is effecting how he fields his position.
by jthig32 on Sep 25, 2008 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That reminds of my favorite Dugout
The topic was shorstops moving to third and talking with A-Rod, Cal Ripken and Nomar about it.
Cal: How many balls have you taken off your chest, ARod?
A-Rod: BOI JOO HAF NO IDEA HOW RIDICOLUS THAT QUESTION EES
A-Rod: LIGE EITY ONE IF JOO COUN JOHN KRUK
http://dugout.progressiveboink.com/archive/nick141.htm
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
by WyoRanger on Sep 25, 2008 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just recently discovered Progressive Boink.
I came across it on a search for “greatest calvin and hobbes strips.” Then like a month later searching for “best arrested development moments.”
Figured out it was the site for me and joined the forum a couple days ago.
by philkid3 on Sep 26, 2008 1:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This place has done a complete 180 since that first Hardy thread.
I guess it makes more sense to wait ’til the end of the season… count the errors, tally up the unearned runs, and say that the defense is the REAL reason this team is in the September shitter.
Great pitching and great defense go hand-in-hand, right?
by oc on Sep 25, 2008 3:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
yep its all the defense right? who cares about line drives, defenses have to catch those
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 25, 2008 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think folks are saying
its the only reason, but it probably cost the team somewhere in the neighborhood fo 75-100 runs over an average defense. I doubt great defense would make our pitching great, but it might give them an ERA in the mid 4s instead of the mid 5s. I’d settle for “about average” defense, which would get our defense to the 5 range.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i like the idea of getting hardy
but hurley and those others you mentioned are worth more than hardy
and even if those players even, you still cant trade away a young and talented ml-ready pitcher on the worst pitching team in baseball
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 25, 2008 3:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If we trade Salty, Hurley and Poveda for JJ Hardy
I’m calling up Josey and asking for tips on how to jump on the “Fire JD” bandwagon.
My new sig would be something along the lines of “F**** the Boy Blunder”.
I like Hardy quite a bit, but this is not the time to start dealing our pitching depth to patch holes in our lineup. I agree we should make patching up our incredibly shitty defense a priority, and I also agree that moving Face to to 3b and Hambone to COF should be a priority for this club. But why not sign cheap one year guys for SS and CF and wait for Andrus and Borbon to be ready? Even if you take a big hit at the plate with guys like Cesar Izturis, Adam Everett, Willy Tavares, etc., you gain a ton in defense.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Sep 25, 2008 3:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
also, on a red sox blog i saw people saying that they would trade bucholz for salty in a heartbeat. is that realistic?
"Tommy Hunter will be the best pitcher on the Rangers in 2009" Me- August 14th, 2008
To: Luis Mendoza "Please die in a fire." LSJ; PLEASE
by Seth. on Sep 25, 2008 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not realistic
Buchholz has pure ace stuff and just a year ago was an uber-untouchable top 5 overall prospect.
Just cause some knee jerky Bawston fans are down on him doesn’t mean Theo’s gone crazy.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Sep 25, 2008 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The price tag
I agree it’s a bit high for my liking. But I’m negotiating with them all the same and you have to like the idea of making every Rangers pitcher better with defense.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Sep 25, 2008 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ridiculous.
trading Hurley + a catcher and a lower level pitcher for Hardy, that is. if you can squeeze Gallardo or Parra out in a conversation with them, fine, include Hurley and a lower level but still exciting pitcher. otherwise, I’m not giving up a pitcher to get a SS when we have FOTF and the future in AA about ready to come up. if you’re building a future championship team, and your biggest weaknesses are pitching and defense, and you have a guy that’s a year or two away that will provide solid if not inspiring defense and at least adequate offense, and you’ve got a home grown talent like Hurley, who may or may not end up being a good middle of the rotation starter, WHY the hell would you want a stop-gap shortstop? I’m all for acquiring a stop-gap if we need one. but why move Young if it’s not Andrus moving him out of SS, and why trade MORE pitching for a hitter, even if it is for defense that will SUPPOSEDLY improve the pitching? if we’re trading 2 catchers this summer, fine – go after Hardy with a catcher and something else…but if we only trade 1 catcher this summer, use it to get pitching. nothing else.
"Calmer than you are... "
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 25, 2008 3:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Above comments notwithstanding
Great read, and shows how much more interesting the team (read: pitching) becomes when there’s IF defense.
A tanglible plan.
I still think Elvis can do roughly the job Hardy would even next year, defensively if nothing else. It’s a lot to give up to allow Andrus a more comfortable transition to the bigs.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 25, 2008 3:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good article
with a lot of info to think about.
One thing mentioned in the post was that Hank was at 0 in runs allowed or whatever its called. It seems that Blalock could provide an significant upgrade over the 3rd base play we had this year if his arm comes around. I know his range isn’t great but if he is not costing any runs over average, it beats the heck out of trading away significant young assets.
I’m not saying his arm will ever recover, but wouldn’t it be worth it to see before we make a move like the one proposed?
by mcgee48c on Sep 25, 2008 4:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Aside
After simply agreeing with Adam’s proposition as posted, had another thought.
Remember when I griped and whined about LF being the run producing hole in the defense? That LF was a ‘speed field’ and required coverage? That seems to be far less a problem now. And the INF defense needs to both be improved personnel wise and possibly positioned better (which is really hard to figure out until the pitching staff becomes consistent in how they approach given hitters).
Then the ‘impression’ jolt. Quite a few runs have been given up during 2007 and 2008 when pitchers make errors. Mostly throwing errors, sometimes glove incompetence. And a few have come from bad throws from catchers. Factually, catchers will make a few bad throws, in situational play. So my new gripe is pitchers who don’t field their position and throw the ball away. Instead of an out, you get a runner on 2nd, or even on third depending on the play.
Anybody have a think tank view of what to do about poor fielding by pitchers?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Sep 25, 2008 5:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Isn't the downside to having a "pitch-to-contact" philosophy the fact that more balls are put in play?
…thus making your fielders work more, and allowing for a greater chance for errors? Or injuries?
How about a strikeout pitcher? How about two of them?
by oc on Sep 25, 2008 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be
A huge help, yes.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Sep 25, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitchers who field their position well
are nice to have.
Remember how well Kenny Rogers could field his positon and does anybody we have come close to him?
What’s ironical is that Nolan is concentrating on making our staff better but he was probably one of the worst fielding pitchers I ever saw.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Sep 25, 2008 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Consider the following results through 159 games
by Ranger pitching. Considering all teams in the major leagues, they have given up the 5th most BB’s(613), have allowed the 2nd most HBPs(72), have allowed the 5th most WPs(62) and rank 27th in SOs(941). Improving the defense would surely help in many areas but to say the pitching is not bad is a stretch IMO.
by Jea103 on Sep 25, 2008 6:16 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs
I don't think
folks are saying the pitching is bad, but it would probably be closer to an ERA of 5 than ERA of 5.5. It still wouldn’t be good, but it wouldnt be so horrendous.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 25, 2008 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This offense really didn't need much better than a 5 ERA
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Sep 25, 2008 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec.
Surprised I’m the first.
"Asphalt me, ben. Asphalt me good and hard." - brettgardner
by Chase Irwin on Sep 25, 2008 7:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, front page posts can't be put on the rec list for some stupid reason
But I’m agree. Rec for AJM.
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
by lonestarJon on Sep 25, 2008 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes sense.
But it just seems like its going to play itself out naturally with blalocks contract running out and andrus probably being ready at the same time, 2010.
I do think the defense would probably be an overall benefit compared to the offensive loss, but enough to trade another young pitcher when theres a natural solution a year away? Not sure.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on Sep 25, 2008 8:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We've been over the Hardy thing before
And my take is, considering we have Andrus in the system I don’t think Hardy would be worth giving up a young starter like Eric Hurley for – unless of course you’re planning to trade Andrus for a better young pitcher of course (like Evan Grant is) and that’s not really something I advocate. I like JJ Hardy a lot, but at this point I’d rather just wait for Andrus to arrive – after all, he should be arriving at about the same time as Feliz and Holland and since I don’t think we’re going to truly contend until those two arrive, I’d just as soon wait, finding a filler player to play shortstop until then,
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
by lonestarJon on Sep 25, 2008 9:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Runners stranded
Seems to me that this may have to do with management style. Are pitchers being left in too long? Is the right guy coming in? Is the infield in too often?
Pickoffs and runners thrown out may also be factors. These are not strengths of this team.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Sep 25, 2008 11:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
Any solution that has MY playing 3rd base is a bad solution. Additionally, I wouldn’t waste our trade chips on a SS at this point. We’re not going to make the playoffs next year anyway, so why trade away our trade chips for a SS? Andrus should be ready in 2010 when we have a shot at the playoffs. Use our trade chips on players that will be helping us in 2010 and beyond. It’s not about 2009.
Daniels needs to expend most of his energy this offseason figuring out how to make Young disappear.
--Brian
by BCanfield on Sep 26, 2008 4:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I question
whether Andrus will be ready in 2010.
Also, I’m not sure David Copperfield could make Young disappear.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Sep 26, 2008 6:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reply to Trident/Journey (work Computer sucks)
I don’t know why people think MY won’t move. He’s seen the backlash given to previous “selfish” players on this team. He fancies himself a clubhouse leader. He also has said he wants to WIN NOW.
If he’s really that much of a leader, and really wants to win that bad, then he’ll move. He might not like it, but he’ll like it if it helps the team win.
If he doesn’t want to move, then you Frank Robinson his ass. It’s pretty simple.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Sep 26, 2008 1:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's obvious....
the bad defense effects the bad pitching here, and yes something needs to be done about it.
However I don’t deal one of our catchers plus Hurley plus another pitching prospect for a position player. I want pitching in return for that kind of package, and I think JD will as well. I would rather use that kind of package for a pitcher, move MY to 3rd and sign a defensive stop gap ‘til Andrus is ready. The Rangers don’t need Hardy’s offense, they need his defense. i don’t give away the kind or players it would take to get him when you can get a nice defensive SS on the market without hurting the farm system.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 27, 2008 2:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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