Fun with BA's Top20's

When asked about the top minor league systems in baseball, Jim Callis said,

...the Rangers and Athletics have put together the game's two deepest farm systems.

I'd rank Texas ahead of Oakland because I like their depth and their balance of hitters and pitchers a little more. The Rangers have done an impressive job on all fronts recently, picking up talent via trades (Andrus might be the best shortstop prospect in the minors, while Feliz might have the best pure fastball), the draft (getting Smoak and Ross with the 11th and 57th overall picks this year was a huge coup) and the international market (Perez drew some Johan Santana comps in the short-season Northwest League this summer).

Callis’ assertion is borne out by BA’s published Top 20 lists for the rookie, A, and AA leagues:
(1) The Rangers are tied for 1st with 14 prospects among the various league Top20s.
(2) The Rangers are 1st with 11 prospects among the various league Top10s.   
(3) The Rangers are 1st with 5 prospects among the various league Top5s.In

                             Top20                  Top10                Top5
Avg/team           7.67                     3.97                    2.15

Top 3 teams     Rangers (14)    Rangers (11)    Rangers (5)
                            A's (14)               Giants (8)          Marlins (4)
                            Braves (14)        A's (7)                A's (4)

And if you are curious how the Rangers stack up against the other teams in the AL West:
Team             Top20     Top10     Top5
 A's                  14            7              4
 Angels           8              1              1
 Mariners        12           5              3
 Rangers        14           11            5

For the calculations above, I used a player’s higher ranking and only counted him once if he was present on more than one Top20 list.

Rangers Ranked Among BA's League Top20s
Rank   Player                    League
2          Chris Davis           TEX
2          Martin Perez          NWL
2          Neftali Feliz           MWL
4          Neil Ramirez         NWL
5          Elvis Andrus          TEX
6          Engel Beltre           MWL
6         Wilfredo Boscan    NWL
8         Julio Borbon           TEX
8         Tim Murphy             NWL
9         Derek Holland        MWL
9         Max Ramirez           TEX
11       Joe Wieland           AZL
11       Julio Borbon           CAL
16       Matt West                NWL
18       Clark Murphy          AZL

Predicting the Rangers contribution to BA’s 2009 Top100 List
Although fall and winter league performances will likely impact BA’s 2009 prospect list, the published Top20’s suggest that the Rangers in 2009 will likely have more than the 5 representatives that they had on BA's 2008 Top100 list.  By my count, 36 players from BA’s 2008 list have graduated to the majors and another 15 have performed too poorly to be considered among the Top100 prospects for 2009. That leaves more than half of the Top100 list available for new prospects.  How many Rangers are likely to make the list, you ask?  Well, please allow me to speculate.

Rangers Top100 Incumbents (2008 Rank)
Andrus (#19) – 520 Abs, 295 AVG, 350 OBP, 367 SLG, 717 OPS, 54 St/16CS
Andrus’ strong second half (313/364/400/764) ensures that he will remain high on BA’s prospect list.

Davis (#65) – AA/AAA – 323 ABs, 333 AVG, 386 OBP, 643 SLG, 1029 OPS, 23 HR
                        ML – 312 ABs, 288 AVG, 334 OBP, 555 SLG, 884 OPS, 17 HR
Had he not graduated, Davis would have likely been ranked among BA’s Top20 and rated as one of the best power hitters in the minor leagues. 

Hurley (#77) – AA/AAA – 74.2 IP, 4.83 ERA, 8.2K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.47 WHIP
                         ML – 24.2 IP, 5.47 ERA, 4.0K/9IP, 3.2BB/9IP, 1.42 WHIP
Disappointing numbers in AAA combined with an injury-shortened run in the majors will likely drop Hurley from the BA Top100 for the first time since 2006.

Teagarden (#80) – AAA – 225 ABs, 225 AVG, 332 OBP, 396 SLG, 728 OPS
                                 ML – 52 ABs, 319 AVG, 396 OBP, 809 SLG, 1205 OPS
A disappointing batting average in AAA has been somewhat mitigated by an outstanding major league debut.  Teagarden’s reputation as one of the better catching prospects in baseball might be enough to get him on the 2009 list. 

Feliz (#93) – A/AA – 127.1 IP, 2.69 ERA, 10.8K/9IP, 3.6BB/9IP, 1.10 WHIP
BA’s somewhat surprising selection of Feliz for their 2008 list was rewarded with a breakout year in 2008.  Feliz should experience one of the bigger jumps among the 2008 incumbents.

Guaranteed New Rangers
Holland – A/A+/AA – 150 IP, 2.35 ERA, 9.3 K/9IP, 2.4 BB/9IP, 1.01 WHIP
Although Holland was only rated #9 among the MWL’s top prospects, he is now included in many lists of the Top 10 minor league pitching prospects after proving himself in A+ and AA. 

MaxRam – AA/AAA – 327 ABs, 347 AVG, 439 OBP, 628 SLG, 1067 OPS
                       ML – 51 ABs, 222 AVG, 352 OBP, 378 SLG, 730 OPS
Ramirez was a fixture on BA’s weekly prospect lists during the first half of the season.  Although injuries and a ML promotion limited his ABs in the second half of the season, Ramirez should be recognized as one of the best hitting catchers in the minor leagues.

Smoak – A – 61 AB’s, 304 AVG, 355 OBP, 518 SLG, 873 OPS
From a Jim Callis Chat – “One scout who got a glimpse of Smoak when he joined Clinton at the end of the season told me he thought Smoak was the best prospect in the league. I probably would have ranked him No. 2.” 
Moustakas was ranked #1 in the MWL, Feliz #2, and Jarrod Parker #3. It sounds to me as if Callis has Smoak among his top 20 minor league prospects.

Potential New Rangers
Beltre – A – 581 ABs, 283 AVG, 308 OBP, 403 SLG, 711 OPS 31 St/11CS
BA’s Top100 prospect list for 2008 included eight players whom BA ranked among the Top20 in the Midwest League following the 2007 season.  Assuming they take a similar number of players this year, then it is likely that Beltre will make the final cut since he ranked #6 in the MWL this year.

Borbon – A+/AA – 575 ABs, 321 AVG, 362 OBP, 425 SLG, 787 OPS, 53 St/16 CS
Based on his 337/380/459/838 romp at Frisco, Borbon was ranked #8 on BA’s Texas League Top20 which was one slot ahead of Max Ramirez.  BA included 12 Texas Leaguers among their 2008 Top100 prospects, so don’t be surprised to see Borbon get the nod for 2009.

Perez – Short season A – 61.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 7.7K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, 1.52 WHIP
The only NWL player to make BA’s 2008 list was Neftali Feliz.  Perez finished second to Josh Vitters on BA’s Top20 for the NWL this year and Vitters is a lock for the 2009 Top100 list.  In a chat session, Nathan Rode indicated that a BA staff discussion comparing the prospect status of Perez and Feliz ended in a stalemate.  Look for BA to include Perez among the latter few picks in anticipation of a breakout next year.

Main – Rk/A – 58.2 IP, 2.76, 10K/9IP, 2.8BB/9IP, 1.11 WHIP
Injuries limited Main’s innings and the probability that BA will add him to their list of the Top100 prospects in baseball.  In my opinion, odds are 2:1 against Main being included on the 2009 list.


Final Prediction – 8 Rangers
Feliz (Top25)
Smoak (Top25)
Holland (Top50)
Andrus (Top50)
MaxRam (Top75)
Beltre (Top100)
Borbon (Top100)
Perez (Top100)