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Arms Race - Oakland vs Texas

Many thanks to tball for the inspiration that led to today's fanpost.  This isn't the complete comparison of the A's and Rangers farm systems that tball suggested to Jamey, but it was a fun dataset to try to get my arms around.

A lot has been made of the recent accumulation and development of pitching prospects by the A's and Rangers.  To get a sense of how the A's and Rangers stockpiles of young pitching prospects compare, I gathered the 2008 stats for the Top20 or so pitchers under the age of 27 for both teams and categorized them as follows:  AAA/ML, A+/AA, A-/A, and Rookie.  Categorizing the pitchers made it easier to rank the pitchers from both teams since it eliminated the "ceiling vs probability of reaching ceiling" issue that makes stack-ranking younger and older prospects together so difficult.  Given that I know more about the Rangers prospects, the analysis was undoubtedly biased in the Rangers favor; for that reason I would highly recommend that you spend a few minutes with the stats below and draw your own conclusions.  The column entitled "Level" provides the level(s) that I used to compile the data that is shown.  "BAA" is Batting Average Against, LD% is the percentage of balls in play that are line drives, and FIP is a stat that combines the rates of home runs, walks, and strikeouts to estimate ERA.  In theory, the stat eliminates the influence of defense though its elimination of balls in play tends to under-estimate the performance of groundball pitchers.  The FIP used for the table below featured a park effect calculation to minimize the potential effect of a home-field advantage or disadvantage though the normalizer does not account for differences between leagues.   


AAA/ML
                   Age/Hand Level  IP    ERA   BAA   WHIP  BB,K,HR/9IP LD%  FIP
Smith           24/LHP    ML   160   4.23   247   1.37     4.2,5.6,1.0
Eveland       24/LHP    ML   139   4.21   260   1.47     4.4,6.1,0.5  
Gallagher   22/RHP    ML     93   5.23   274   1.59     4.7,8.0,1.0
Gonzalez     22/LHP   AAA   126  4.24   237   1.33     4.4,9.1,0.9     16      4.40
Braden        25/LHP   AAA     54   2.36   256   1.15     1.8,9.0,1.3     21      4.20
Meyer          27/RHP   AAA   126  4.48   251    1.33     3.7,7.8,0.8     15      4.28

vs

McCarthy   25/RHP      ML     16    2.25  228   1.13     2.8,5.1,1.1 
Feldman    25/RHP     ML    133   5.05  278   1.44     3.6,4.4,1.3
Harrison     22/LHP    AAA     88   3.43   271   1.33     2.9,5.7,0.6     13      4.13
Hurley         22/RHP    AAA     87   4.83   279   1.40     3.1,7.7,1.8     18      5.42
Hunter        22/RHP  A/AAA  166   3.41   270   1.23    1.8,5.7,1.0      16     4.42
Nippert       27/RHP    AAA     64   3.98   275   1.28     2.3,6.1,1.3      18     4.89

There are no stars among either team's ML-ready pitchers, but there are a lot of solid pitchers who can fill out a rotation and bullpen. Oakland's ML-ready pitchers are almost universally left-handed and league average.  Eveland and Smith have proven to be effective despite relatively high walk rates.  Gallagher is producing about as well as could be expected for a 22 yo pitching his first season in the major leagues.  Gonzalez generates a lot of K's with a plus curveball but his average fastball and change-up have made his transition to the big leagues difficult (7.18 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in 26.1 IP).  McCarthy's injury this year makes it difficult to compare his stats to the other pitchers, but as recently as 1.5 years ago he was considered to have perhaps the highest ceiling of any player on either team's list.  Feldman's age and peripherals peg him as being essentially equivalent to Smith and Eveland.  Harrison and Hurley have both shown that they can pitch at the big league level, though they are currently below average with mid 5 ERAs and ~1.5 WHIPs. During the next few years, it is likely that Hurley, Harrison, Hunter, Gallagher and Gonzalez will be performing at similar levels in the big leagues.  Nippert was thrown in as the sixth Ranger, though Gabbard or Mathis would have fit in just as well.  Given McCarthy's questionable health, the AAA/ML category falls on the A's side of the ledger.   

A+/AA
                    Age/Hand   Level      IP    ERA    BAA   WHIP    BB,K,HR/9IP    LD%   FIP
Cahill           20/RHP     A+/AA   128   2.61    185    1.01        3.5,9.5,0.4       10      3.26
Anderson    20/LHP      A+/AA   108   3.69    242    1.15        2.3,9.8,0.7       13      3.51
Simmons    21/RHP        AA      137   3.51    279    1.32        2.1,7.9,0.8       23      3.53
Mazarro        21/RHP   AA/AAA   173   2.74    249    1.15        2.3,6.5,0.3       21      3.30
Rodriguez    21/RHP       AA        43    5.20    298    2.23        9.3,9.1,0.2       21      4.80

vs

Feliz             20/RHP     A/AA     129    2.69     204   1.10        3.6,10.7,0.1    18     2.59
Holland       21/LHP      A/AA    154     2.27     210   0.99        2.4,9.4,0.2      15     2.63
Kiker            20/LHP        A+      124    4.73     292   1.42        2.7,8.0,1.0      12     4.55
Poveda       20/RHP        A+        94    4.47     241   1.31        3.8,9.3,1.0        8      4.58
Hyatt            24/RHP    A+/AA     143   3.58     239   1.23        3.0,7.1,0.8      13     4.18

The Top2 pitching prospects for both systems finished their seasons in AA.  The following question has been asked of national prospect experts, "Would you rather have Cahill and Anderson or Feliz and Holland?"  To date, the answer has been Cahill and Anderson, but Holland's amazing finish might be changing the minds of those who are in the know.  The remaining prospects in the A+/AA category are also very interesting.  Simmons has outstanding control but gives up a few more hits than you would like and doesn't strike out enough players to be considered a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.  Mazzaro pitched great in AA (1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) but has struggled in his first 33.2 innings in AAA (6.15 ERA, 1.72 WHIP).  Henry Rodriguez has an upper-90's fastball that he struggles to control.  He struck out 147 batters in 117 innings, but also issued 84 walks.  His transition from A+ to AA has not been pleasant (3.96 vs 7.46 ERA).  Kiker and Poveda both had good, though somewhat disappointing seasons in the Cal League.  Both pitchers use three pitches to produce almost 1K/IP.  Though Poveda posted a slightly higher walk rate this year than in the past (3.83/9IP), both pitchers are considered to have good control.  With the exception of the ERAs, which are difficult to compare between the Cal and Texas leagues, Kiker's and Poveda's numbers compare favorably to those of Simmons and perhaps slightly above Mazzaro due to Mazzaro's low k-rate. The fifth pitcher on the Rangers list posted outstanding numbers in stops at A+ and AA (and a spot start in AAA), though his age and lack of outstanding stuff leave him with lower upside than Rodriguez and tips the scale for the A+/AA pitchers in Oakland's favor.        

A-/A
                   Age/Hand   Level      IP      ERA    BAA    WHIP    BB,K,HR/9IP    LD%    FIP
Santos         22/RHP    A('07)  122      2.65                0.90          11K/9IP
Hernandez  21/LHP      A-/A      76      2.04    222     1.03        1.7,7.9,0.1      14       2.73
Ross            21/RHP       A         17      4.66    206     1.06        2.7,7.4,0.5      10       3.53
Italiano        22/RHP      A/A+    103     3.81    223     1.40        5.3,9.7,0.7      17       4.36

vs

Main            19/RHP        A          46     2.58    228     1.10        2.7,9.8,0.8       17       3.34
Beavan        19/RHP       A        125     2.37    233     1.01        1.4,5.3,0.9       14       4.19
Boscan        18/RHP      A-         71     3.12     251     1.10        1.4,8.9,0.4       15       3.04
Ramirez       19/RHP     A-          45     2.66    163     1.20         5.8,10.4,0.8     15      4.78
Perez            17/RHP     A-          65     3.65    276     1.47         3.9,7.4,0.3       19      4.06
Gomez         20/RHP      A           90     2.97    235     1.08         2.0,7.0,0.8       16      3.80
Murphy         21/LHP    A-/A         48     2.83                1.00         3.4,9.6,1.0
Pimental     18/RHP      A-          65     3.31                 1.21        4.3,7.4,0.6

The biggest disparity between the A's and Rangers minor league systems occurs at the low A levels.  Fautino de los Santos put up very good numbers in the Appy and SAL leagues last year (2.65 ERA, 10+K/9IP, 0.90 WHIP) but he has missed all but the first month of this season due to an arm injury.  Carlos Hernandez is a 21 yo LHP who posted very nice numbers in 75 innings of work in the NWL and MWL, however he is not included on any list of A's prospects that I've seen.  As a 2nd round pick in the 2008 draft, Tyson Ross has not pitched enough to know how he will transition to professional ball.  22 yo Craig Italiano opened the year with some of the best stats in the minor leagues as he repeated the Midwest League after an uninspiring 2007.  His early season 1.16 ERA, 10+K/9IP, and 1.11 WHIP is now looking like a mirage as he has put up a 9.90 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 30 Cal League innings.  In contrast to the A's, the Rangers low A minor league rotations are absolutely stacked.  No fewer than 5 pitchers are prjected to be mid-rotation or higher starters when they reach the big leagues.  Main, Ramirez, and Perez are all considered to have top-of-the-rotation stuff and posted numbers that support that contention.  Boscan combined high k and groundball rates with a low walk rate to dominate the NWL as an 18 yo.  Beavan and Gomez were among the MWL's most productive pitchers despite rather pedestrian k-rates.  Throw in Tim Murphy and Carlos Pimental and it is hard to imagine this wave of pitchers failing to produce fewer than 3 major league starters.  This category is an absolute slam dunk in favor of the Rangers.

Rookie
Inoa

vs

Font, Weiland, O'Campo, Ross

This is where my lack of knowledge of the A's farm teams and recent signees makes it difficult for me to compare the two systems.  A review of the A's rookie league team failed to reveal even a single pitcher with a compelling stat line.  Micheal Inoa is being touted as the next Felix Hernandez, but beyond that it appears that the A's low minor league cupboard appears to be bare.  In contrast, Weiland and O'Campo were among the AZL league's leading pitchers, Robbie Ross is touted to have three solid pitches, and Font is at least in the same neighborhood as Inoa in terms of potential.  As with the previous category, the collection of Rookie-level pitching talent clearly favors the Rangers.

Overall - Oakland might have a slight advantage at the upper levels, but the depth of high ceiling arms at the lower levels provides Texas with a clear advantage in the AL West Arms Race.

 

 

 

 

23 recs | Comment 127 comments

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Agreed, nice work

though I feel compelled to make a few points on Oakland’s behalf.

First, the list understandably omits a few top A’s prospects. The following 5 guys all certainly figure into the A’s top dozen or so pitchers, and I would have Leon and Hunter as the A’s top two single A guys:

Arnold Leon – 19 year old who split 08 between A+ and the Mexican league due to a quirky contract w his old team. Pitched well in relief w good peripherals, very young for his league. Could be a mid rotation starter or a dominant reliever.

Brett Hunter – 21 year old picked in the 7th round this June after arm problems at Pepperdine. Once protected as a top 15 pick, slipped due to injury, but pitched well w Team USA this summer and signed a 7th round record $1.1M deal. At his best he’s mid to high 90s and a potential front of the rotation starter. Currently pitching in relief in low A.

Andrew Carignan – Former UNC closer spent his first full year between A+/AA at 21/22, posting ludicrous K rates (~12/9) and even more ludicrous BB rates (6/9) along the way. Could be a top quality closer if he ever harnesses the stuff.

Sam Demel – Former UTEP closer put up similar numbers to Carignan but spent the whole season in A+. Big time heat. Pegged as a sleeper coming into the year and did not disapoint.

Jared Lansford – Carney’s son had a bounce back season after missing all last year to injury. Averaged about a K per IP between A+ and AA. Did some closing. Could return to starting next year. Former second rounder is still just 21.

The second point I’d like to make is that AA/AA/MLB arms are worth a lot more that A+/A/A- arms. A lot can go wrong between A ball and the majors. See Fautino De Los Santos or Craig Italiano for Oakland examples. These guys dominated A ball, but injuries and/or ineffectiveness have dimmed their prospect stars considerably. Considering the omitted pitchers discussed above, I don’t think that the Rangers advantage at the lower levels is enough to make up for their lesser depth at the top.

That said, I look forward to watching all the guys discussed in your post prove themselves on the field in the coming years. I only wish they could come a little sooner for the A’s. ;)

by NRC on Sep 4, 2008 5:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

A's/Rangers Discussion

NRC: Thanks for the input. It is truly an honor to have you here for a discussion of A’s prospects. Hopefully, you and others from Athletics Nation will stop by to help educate me and others at LSB about the A’s farm system.

Like the A’s, the Rangers have a number of interesting relief prospects (Madrigal, Beau Jones, Garr, Laughter, Castillo to name a few), but I chose to restrict my analysis to starters to avoid problems with comparing stats from pitchers who go one or two innings per appearance to the starters who have to pace themselves and get through a line-up a couple of times. I had meant to mention that in the FanPost but it slipped my mind.

by spurdynasty on Sep 4, 2008 7:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes tie goes to the upper level talent

I wish the rangers would have pulled the trigger on hunter, 4-7, but most seem to think he projects as a reliever. That is not a bad thing as he could emerge as a great closer…..

by Goyogringo on Sep 4, 2008 9:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hunter

Texas probably didn’t because Jon Daniels kept listening to Firebat say over and over that his shoulder was blown out and never will pitch again. :)

by JBImaknee on Sep 5, 2008 12:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

JD, if you're reading for this,

Dustin Ackley is better than Grant Green. Draft him next year

by FirebatM3 on Sep 5, 2008 2:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Great post for...

…those of us new to the MiLB scene. Thanks for the research!

"The path you choose, you also choose its destination..."

by pro82 on Sep 4, 2008 3:24 PM CDT   0 recs

Man...

you are made of win, spurdynasty.

by ghostofErikThompson on Sep 4, 2008 3:33 PM CDT   0 recs

Sounds like you need your own blog

good work

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Sep 4, 2008 3:33 PM CDT   0 recs

Poveda's LD%

is eye opening. he could come on strong next season and join the ranks of Feliz and Holland in the eyes of many. You have to like the way he finished the season. I will be very anxious to see how Poveda and Kiker perform in Frisco next year.

Also, is there any way Holland gets a AAA assignment out of spring training?

by clark on Sep 4, 2008 3:42 PM CDT   0 recs

I would add that the game logging in the minor leagues may not be quite as consistent as the majors

So it’s not always certain as to what is a line drive and what is a fly ball. Be careful with those numbers

by Telegraph on Sep 4, 2008 3:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

This is really, really important

I don’t know offhand what Texas’s A+ team is, but I know from experience that line drives are comically underreported in the California League. I’m talking, guys with 10% “line drive rates” posting .340 BABIPs. I know the defenses in the minors are worse, but they’re not THAT bad.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 5, 2008 1:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Poveda 2009

Like many of the LSB/Newberg Report community, I’ve been ecstatic about the progress of Feliz and Holland, Beavan and Main, Boscan and NeRa. But the guy that I am most excited about for 2009 is Poveda. For the past two months, I’ve religiously tracked Omar’s starts and he’s seemingly gotten stronger every fifth day. He’s obviously gained confidence in his curve and become a legitimate three-pitch pitcher. During the second half of the year, I am certain that Poveda has induced more swing-and-misses than any other pitcher in the system. If he arrives at spring training healthy and fit and is able to maintain that through the year, I expect him to be a part of any discussion of the Rangers top pitching prospects by this time next year.

by spurdynasty on Sep 4, 2008 4:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmm...

I wonder if the rangers should protect him from the rule 5 just in case ….

by Goyogringo on Sep 4, 2008 9:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thats a tough one

I think thats part of the reason he hasn’t been promoted yet. Its hard for teams to rationalize taking a player who hasn’t played in AA in the rule 5 draft. Although his last couple months in Bakersfield have been really good. I could see a team like KC or someone who is fully rebuilding taking a flyer on him. Keep him in the majors for April and then have him come down with the mysterious arm problem that keeps him on the DL the rest of the year.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 4, 2008 9:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Poveda and the 40-man roster

I think that Poveda’s finish almost guarantees that a team will select him if he is exposed in the Rule 5 draft and stash him as you suggest BigSteve. And that would be a real tragedy both to the Rangers future pitching and to Poveda’s development path.

by spurdynasty on Sep 5, 2008 6:18 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Poveda

I’d much rather use a 40-man spot on him than Mayberry.

--Brian

by BCanfield on Sep 5, 2008 3:43 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Why

Mayberry could actually help us out next year. Poveda wouldn’t be ready for at the very least another year probably a year and a half to two years.

With the amount of crap that has been said around here regarding Borbon taking up a 40 man spot this year I can only imagine if we had Poveda on it as well.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 5, 2008 7:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

JMJ

How can an almost 25 year-old RF that can’t hit help us, next year or in the future? He is not a prospect and never has been. Byrd, Boggs, and Cruz are much better options for next season than Mayberry.

I’d much rather have a starting pitcher that is striking out more than a batter an inning in A+.

--Brian

by BCanfield on Sep 5, 2008 8:25 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Injuries

If a guy goes down for 2-4 weeks Mayberry could come up and even if he only played sparingly he could help out. Im not saying hes going to come up and put up Chris davis numbers but he could come up if we needed him. Whereas if a pitcher goes down for 2-4 weeks next year Poveda cannot help us out.

Personally I would protect Poveda but I can see why they may not and understand if they don’t. We need to get ready to start losing some decent players to rule 5 because with the amount of talent we have coming up over the next few years its bound to happen. I don’t want to lose him but if it happens I can understand why it does

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 5, 2008 9:44 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Poveda on the 40 over Mayberry

Abso-freaking-lutely.

"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve

by tricer on Sep 5, 2008 8:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

do you believe

that Poveda would be more likely to stick on a 40 than Mayberry?

by FirebatM3 on Sep 5, 2008 9:36 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i would like to know as well....

"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich

by knockoutking on Sep 5, 2008 12:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think you make those decisions with that thought process

Say you are in the room with the braintrust and there is only room on the 40 for one of Poveda and Mayberry.

Now, you can approach the decision by trying to decide which of the 2 players would be more likely to stick on another team’s ML roster and thus be lost. Using this process, you would keep Mayberry.

Or, you can approach the decision by trying to make an evaluation on which of the 2 players is going to be more valuable, in the long run, to the Rangers. Using this process, you would keep Poveda.

I’d rather make these type of decisions based on talent and ML projection. I believe that Poveda is more talented and will eventually be a more valuable contributor at the ML level, so I’d keep him and not lose a single wink of sleep over Mayberry posting a 750ish OPS from a corner OF spot in another uniform.

I’d rather keep the most talented player, and in this case it’s easily Poveda IMO.

"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve

by tricer on Sep 5, 2008 2:31 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow

I can just hear the uproar now if we left a former 1st round draft pick who could play in the majors the upcoming season unprotected so we could protect a guy who won’t sniff the major leagues for 18 months at the very minimum most likely 2 years until he even breaks through to the bigs. It would be epic.

While Poveda is the better prospect there are more factors than just who the better player is. The rule 5 means the player has to stay on the active roster all year. A 25 year old with a decent seaosn in AAA and can play multiple positions is much much easier to keep on the active roster than a pitcher who has 1 start in AA and spent two years in Low A ball and a year and a half in High A.

This season when we were having to make roster decisions due to injuries people were up in arms over giving Borbon a ML contract and taking up a spot on the 40 man roster. Borbon is arguable a year and a half ahead of Poveda in development. Adding Poveda would create many many situations where we risk losing good young players all so a guy who had a good half of a season can hopefully continue on his development path and help out in a couple years. Thats not smart baseball

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 5, 2008 2:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

In all honesty

I don’t think it will come down to that, but I think the backlash will be even greater if a pitcher gets selected and he goes all Joaquin Soria on us.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 5, 2008 2:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Joakim Soria

shit, people should have easier to spell names.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 5, 2008 2:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Poveda

Like I said I personally would protect Poveda but if the Rangers do leave him unprotected and he gets picked up I won’t be pissed. There will be more tough decisions like this down the line with the amount of talent we have coming down the pipeline. Especially if we start promoting guys 1 and 2 years before they must be protected. Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak, and Andrew Laughter all look like they will be candidates for 40 man inclusion a full year at least before they are required to be added. Next year alone we will have to add Elvis, Beau Jones, Manny Pina, Whittleman, and Holland. All together thats 8 players we may add to the 40 man roster between April 2009 and November 2009. While right now we have room at the bottom of the 40 to trim players like Loe and Littleton and Murray and the likes. But soon we are going to be getting into territory where we may have to decide on keeping a good player who has established themselves in the majors and we know what they can do or a young player who we hope turns out to be something good.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 5, 2008 2:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Steve, you are a nice guy

but I find that I rarely agree with anything that you say.

Mayberry could play in the majors next year, but he would/will suck. And he’s blocked by several players that are a lot better than him. And he’s never been any good as a professional. Poveda is a talented pitcher that has developed rather nicely and looks like he may be poised for a breakout. There is a huge premium on talented pitchers throughout baseball, and especially in this organization. To me, it is absolutely a no brainer which one I’d keep.

Having said that, I agree w/ Firebat below that the likely scenario is that both are protected.

"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve

by tricer on Sep 5, 2008 2:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Mayberry

It would be surprising if he’s unprotected. Leaving aside the pedigree his numbers are David Murphy’s as a minor leaguer. Like, really the same.

I have to think teams hate cutting ties on number one picks something fierce, even if this one has The Taint.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Sep 5, 2008 10:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

David Murphy

without the glove.

But he’s “raw”. So give him “time to develop”. By 33 he should be an excellent bench bat.

"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky

"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.

"JD is a great GM if you ignore the giving away pitching and handing out horrible contract stuff."-Tricer

by DJCahill on Sep 6, 2008 5:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

if you don't protect Mayberry

he’ll almost certainly be picked and could easily stick on a team like KC. Mayberry would be one of the first two or three guys taken.

The best solution to the logjam is to trade away some of the 40 man talent in either a many for few deal or for non-40 guys. Ideally we’ll see Laird dealt before the rosters need to be set. When do guys need to be protected by?

by JBImaknee on Sep 5, 2008 12:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

LD%

is really a largely pitcher independent stat. It is really controlled by the batter more than it is controlled by pitchers. I don’t think you can credit pitchers for having a low LD% other than perhaps credit them with luck.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 4, 2008 5:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't believe this is true

Given a large enough sample size, pitchers do have control over their LD, just as they do over flyball and groundball. In general for really good pitchers, their year-to-year LD are always lower than average, unless they have a ridiculously high GB. Frequently, when you see pitchers have a really bad year, their LD of that year is also very high. I tend to think LD% as how hittable a pitcher’s “stuff” is, and how often he makes mistake pitches.

The problem though is that under the current system of classification, it’s hard to know what “kind” of line drive it would be. An average line drive hit by Josh Hamilton would obviously be different than an average line drive hit by, say, Juan Pierre. In addition, it’s hard to know when a ball put in play stops becoming a line drive but rather a fly ball. I think the impending hit_f/x system would solve this problem when it comes out.

by Telegraph on Sep 4, 2008 5:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Last 3 years

Johan Santana
2006 – 19.8
2007 – 18.4
2008 – 21.5

Brandon Webb
2006 – 17.3.
2007 – 18.1
2008 – 15.5

Roy Halladay
2006 – 20.6
2007 – 17.9
2008 – 19.9

I think the more useful comparison would be LD% vs. the league average of hitters, but LD% itself fluctuates quite a bit (relatively speaking, of course)

by FirebatM3 on Sep 4, 2008 6:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That would certainly be useful; I am not sure how much LD% of hitters change from year to year

With the exception of Halladay, the other two pitchers have lower LD% than average, and so does a large fraction of other good pitchers. Moreover, even for a given pitcher, in seasons that he is really brilliant, the LD% tends to be lower than his other seasons (for the most part), and vice versa. LD% will obviously not give you the whole story about a pitcher, but it is one of the components that should be considered. It’s not something like BABIP, and there does not seem to be any correlation between LD% and BABIP (i.e. BABIP doesn’t necessarily go down because of a decrease in LD%). My theory is that since LD are usually the hardest hit balls, the reduction in LD might be compensated by harder hit fly balls or ground balls. Anything that gets hit harder will have more chance of ending up as a hit, so the loss in LD is translated to a certain degree to harder hit pitches of the other type, which explains the relative invariance of LD to BABIP. Unfortunately, I don’t have a database to back this up, it would be nice if someone can find this out (if not already).

The second part is that LD% by itself is misleading. Certain pitching styles lends to high LD% than others. Someone like Kason Gabbard should have low LD% because he doesn’t throw anything in the zone. However, if Gabbard gave up more line drives with his pitching style, then he would obviously be a horrendous pitcher.

Also, Baseball Info solutions and MLB seem to have a different understanding of what is a “line drive”, which is not an easy thing to categorize to begin with. All this will cause a lot of inherent noise in the data, so it’s hard to conclude anything very precisely. All I would say is that in general (all others things being equal), low LD% is better when considered with all sorts of other statistics, but it’s not something to be used on its own.

by Telegraph on Sep 4, 2008 6:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Definately true

There’s a proven correlation between pitcher LD% and BABIP as long as the increase/decrease is around 4% or more, I think. Everything else tends to be yearly fluctuation.

But what I was trying to say is that 1 year of low LD% doesn’t necessarily mean that the pitcher was exceptional or really ready to break out (in Poveda’s case), in fact, if you look at the Bakersfield blaze hitters numbers, you’ll see why the LD% for Poveda was so low. That league some how depresses LD% (or the scorer doesn’t score them correctly).

Julio Borbon went from a 9% LD% to a 18%
Jose Vallejo went from a 10% to a 22%
Chad Tracy went from a 14% to a 18%

Similarly, Clinton guys who goes to Bak get their LD% dropped

Ian Gac went from 22% to 14%
Renny Osuna went from 19% to 13%

I am just trying to say that 1) LD% is a bad indicator of ability or breakout performance, especially if 2) those LD% comes from the Cal league.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 4, 2008 11:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Poveda's LD% history

Clark: Thanks for pointing out Poveda’s LD rate. I just went back to Poveda’s prior season’s and discovered that he’s consistently produced lower than average LD rates (see below). As you suggest, that is a great harbinger of future success:

2005: 7.3 LD% in 55 IP
2006: 16.0 LD% in 138.2 IP
2007: 11.1 LD% in 158.1 IP
2008: 8.4 LD% in 94.1 IP
Career: 11.7 LD% in 446.1 IP

by spurdynasty on Sep 4, 2008 8:17 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think NeilRam

Is going to be the Derek Holland breakout player next year

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXWLfIgc0nA

by mchang4 on Sep 4, 2008 3:48 PM CDT   0 recs

Great job again

If you do decide to make another one, maybe you could compare some of the position prospects between Texas and Oakland. I’m pretty sure that would easily fall in the Ranger’s favor…

"Well, the Dallas Mavericks got beat by the New Orleans Hornets last night ending their season. Word is that someone on the team is dating Jessica Simpson." - Jay Leno

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by hinduplaya on Sep 4, 2008 3:55 PM CDT   0 recs

Rangers vs A's Systems

I’ll leave the position player comparison to Adam or tball or Jamey or you, hindu. Like you, I would be shocked if the Rangers system failed to come out on top.

Before I began comparing the stats compiled by the A’s and Rangers pitching prospects, I fully expected the A’s to come out on top. Tracking some of national prospect discussions had led me to believe that the A’s would have the top-rated farm system after this year and that the Rangers would be competing with the Rays for second place. After this exercise, I will be surprised and disappointed if a knowledgable and impartial analysis by Baseball America fails to determine that the Rangers farm system is superior to the A’s system.

by spurdynasty on Sep 4, 2008 5:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You think BA's analysis is impartial?

I’m not going to go off on a conspiratorial rant about them hating Moneyball or something (although some of their writers do…), but BA has certain institutional biases which make its rankings anything but “impartial.” In particular, they consistently overrate extremely young players, and underrate older players at the higher levels.

Given that particular bias, it actually wouldn’t surprise me if they rank the Rangers first, but they’d be making the same mistake that (IMO) you do in looking at very young pitchers and seeing upside instead of probability.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 5, 2008 2:18 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

All of that is true, but

the sheer number of high ceiling arms in the Rangers’ system means there is a good possibility that the level of talent in the upper minors remains strong or gets stronger in the next 2-3 years. Even with attrition it looks like there is a lot of talent there.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Sep 5, 2008 7:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

How?

by their own statistical analysis, Holland and Feliz have been the superior pitchers to Cahill and Anderson this year, and I would probably say the top 3 of the Rangers position prospects (Ramirez, Andrus and Smoak) would rate above the A’s best position prospect. Just because they don’t conform with your opinion, doesn’t make the analysis biased or invalid.

There are a lot of good pitchers in the Rangers system, and their success is reflected in both traditional and non-traditional stats, as spursdynasty was kind enough to list. Why don’t you go about proving that your prospects are actually better rather than fall back on truisms and claims of institutional bias?

by FirebatM3 on Sep 5, 2008 9:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I really have no idea what you're talking about here

with respect to the pitchers, so you’re going to have to rephrase that somehow. I’d say Cahill and Feliz are about the same, Cahill with many more ground balls, Feliz with more strikeouts. Anderson’s missed some time but has been significantly better than Holland when he’s been active.

I’m not going to try to rank the position prospects, because there’s no way I can do an objective job of it without going to way more work than I want to right now, but I have to say that I cannot fathom the state of mind that would rank Andrus over Carter or Cardenas.

Look, my point here is specifically not that BA hates the A’s. I expect them to rank Inoa in the top 100 prospects. I think that’s completely ludicrous; I’m not sure I’d put him in the top 200 right now given his total lack of pro track record and undeveloped physique.

It happens that the Rangers have more very-low-level players for BA to overrate, but I think that’s a combination of coincidence and the A’s generally taking a lot of college draft picks who spend very little, if any, time down there.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 5, 2008 7:09 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Andrus vs Cardenas

Andrus started the season in AA at the age of 19. He turned 20 at the end of August.
Cardenas started the season as a 20 yo playing 2nd base in High A. He was promoted to AA in August and will turn 21 in October.
Advantage – Andrus

Andrus is a take-charge SS. Scouts say he plays gold glove caliber defense.
Cardenas started the year at 2nd base and transitioned to SS when he was traded to Oakland. Scouts say he has an average glove at 2nd base.
Advantage – Andrus

As a 19 yo in AA, Andrus hit 295/350/367/717 and 313/364/400/764.
As a 19 yo in Low A, Cardenas hit 295/354/417/770.
August 2008 is the only time that Andrus and Cardenas have shared a league. While it is a small sample (~100 ABs each), Cardenas hit 297/392/326/718 and Andrus hit 303/351/393/744.
Advantage – Cardenas?

by spurdynasty on Sep 5, 2008 7:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You're cherrypicking badly here

Cardenas’s career OPS is almost 100 points higher than Andrus’s.

If that difference holds up in MLB, Andrus would have to be 20 runs better with the glove to be as good a player.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 6, 2008 12:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That tends to happen

considering Andrus began playing pro-ball at the age of 16.

The difference between the two offensively is SLG%, and that tends to be the last skill to blossom for young players. While Cardenas will hit for more power, probably, than Andrus, I don’t think either is going to be a 20+ HR guy. That said, Andrus has the clear advantage in terms of baserunning, speed and defense, and considering he can stick at a premium defensive position while Cardenas probably cannot and that Andrus is 1 year younger than Cardenas despite playing at a higher level than him, is it really so surprising that some believe Andrus is a better prospect?

by FirebatM3 on Sep 6, 2008 12:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Cherrypicking?

I don’t see what could be deemed cherrypicking from the first two categories. I left out base-running which is clearly in Andrus’s favor. In that sense, perhaps I am cherrypicking in Cardenas’ favor.

I assume you must be talking about the batting lines that I used. I had initially planned to simply compare the hitting numbers from Cardenas and Andrus for this year, but was concerned that the differences in age and league (Cardenas played mostly in High A despite being a year older) was unfair. Furthermore, I noticed that Cardenas’ numbers this year and last are essentially the same (295/354/417/770 in 2007 vs 296/364/399/763 in 2008). I restricted the analysis to the two players at the same age to get a sense of how their SLG numbers might ultimately compare. The numbers certainly suggest that Cardenas will hit for more power, but that appears to be his only advantage over Andrus.

In terms of cherrypicking, I would suggest that comparing the career OPS numbers of a 16/17/18/19 yo to those of a 18/19/20 yo is a great way to slant the truth.

by spurdynasty on Sep 6, 2008 6:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks for coming over

It’s nice for us Ranger-philes to gain a little perspective.

I disagree that Anderson has been significantly better than Holland. Their k rates and bb rates are pretty similar, while Anderson has generated more groundballs and Holland has been harder to hit. Hard for me to see how you could say that either has been “significantly” better than the other this season.

"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve

by tricer on Sep 5, 2008 8:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ditto

Seems the A’s pair and the TX pair are quite close, at least based on performance. The only area I see Anderson being ahead of Holland in is national awareness.

O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.

by t ball on Sep 5, 2008 10:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"Harder to hit" is not a skill

or at the very least it’s not a skill that can be measured using minor league stats.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 6, 2008 12:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

sometimes

it’s easy just to go back to scouting basics. A 95 mph fastball tends to be harder to hit than a 91 mph fastball. A lot of us are still waiting for an explanation of how Anderson is far superior to Derek Holland.

by FirebatM3 on Sep 6, 2008 1:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs