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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Winding Down: 2007 vs 2008

As the season winds down we start looking forward to next season (really we've been thinking that for a few months now).  Great performances coupled with disastrous debacles have given us a wide range of performances to draw conclusions from.  However as I wrestle with my insomnia, I thought back to this time last year and realized that our expectations have become vastly different from last year to this.  This post is nothing more than my recollections of 2007 and my expectations for 2008 and  I know I will have left out some players who deserve mention (good or bad).  These exclusions are unfortunate, but my memory is as cloudy as a shook-up Stuckey's snow-globe...

2008 expectations: 

2007 Sept Call-ups: Luis Mendoza, Armando Gallarraga, AJ Murray, Botts.  The pictchers each pitched a few innings in the tail end of 2007 and each showed promise.  For those of us who hadn't seen them in Frisco or OKC, it was good to see the stuff they each displayed.  Going into 2008 we not only saw a possible end to our Re-Tread for 5th Starter campaign and actually seemed to have a surplus of low end starters to draw from.   Jason Botts, the lightning rod of LSB and Newberg debate came up and sporadically played a part in the dying moments of 2007.  He was fully expected to break camp with the big club in 2008 and either assert himself as a bonafide ML hitter, or as the player we had all seen in sporadic installments the past few years.

Down on the farm(Pitchers):  Wilmer Font, Fabio Castillo, Hurley, Omar Poveda, Kasey Kiker, Zach Phillips, Garr, Komentani were the pitchers who had great 2007 seasons in the various levels of the minors system.   Hurley had a good season in AA in 2007 and had struggled a bit in AAA, but that was chalked up to adjusting.  Expectations for Hurley were to be with the big club as a September call-up after acquitting himself well in AAA.  The Kiker-Poveda-Phillips trio were anticipated to be split up between Clinton, Bakersfield and maybe even Frisco.  Font and Fabio were going to follow up on their great 2007 and further tantalize us with their high potentials.

Down on the Farm(Hitters): Chris Davis had a monstrous season and got us all excited to an almost disturbing degree.  Brandon Boggs, German Duran, Marcus Lemon, had solid to spectacular seasons.  We debated on whether Boggs and Duran would make servicable MLers, while everyone was of the opinion Davis would be greatness and get a chance to shine as a Sept call-up in 2008...if not sooner.  Boggs was being tabbed as the CFer for 2008 if guys like Hunter, Rowand, Andruw and Byrnes were not brough in as FA's.  Mayberry, Whittleman, and Benjamin Harrison had disappointing seasons for various reasons, and our one holdover from the DVD group was shut down to have TJ surgery.  Not a great year at all for our incumbent minor leaguers.  Thank god for the 2007 draft to stoke the fire in our bellies.

2007 Draftees: Michael Main had a great season after signing earlier than his 1st round cohort Beavan.  We were expecting Main to hit Clinton on Opening Day, and Beavan would join him shortly after to all of our eager anticipation.  Matt West, newly drafted, came out of the gates firing, and promptly got a ban for PED's.  Johnathon Greene was another draftee who performed quite well in his short introduction to pro ball.  Reed had a good start to his pro career as did Tommy Hunter (albeit as a reliever).  Full seasons from Borbon, Beavan, Neil Ramirez, Tommy hunter, Evan Reed and the aforementioned Main and West were all headliners of what Ranger fans were thirsting to see come 2008 in.

2007 Trade-Chips: An amazing haul from JD on the trade-front.  Max Ramirez, Engel Beltre, David Murphy, Kason Gabbard, Andrus, Beau Jones, Neftali, Salty, and Matt Harrison were all brought in at or approaching the trade deadline.  David Murphy slotted right into the ML team as did Salty and Gabbard.  Gabbard and Salty had sub-par intro's to the Rangers but they showed promise.  So much so that Gabbard was slotted in as the #3 starter since McCarthy's injury knocked him out of the rotation picture for 2008.  Salty was viewed as a legitimate candidate to start or at least platoon with Laird on opening Day, 2008.  Murphy, however, looked so good he was pencilled in as the Rangers OFer they were missing in the Byrd-Catalanotto OF already in place.  Neftali intrigued us (was he just a one-trick pony with a reliever as a ceiling?), Harrison made JParks go into overjoyed apoplectic fits, but would he impress the rest of us?  Beltre had a toolchest overflowing, but would he, could he realize all of his potential?  Andrus was a Renteria starter-kit, or was he?  Beau jones, was he just a reliever or could he be stretched out as a Starter?  Maximiliano, could his bat catch up to the greatness of his first name?  All of these questions still hovered over the net of acquired pieces picked up at the deadline and it made the prospect of the 2008 minor league season all the more enticing.

We all know how everything above shook out in 2008, but by contrast, let's look at how drastically our expectations have changed.

2008 September Call-Ups:  This is a misnomer, as a lot of the guys later mentioned came up throughout the season, but, conservatively speaking, they were supposed to be called up in September.  Hurley, Hunter, Mathis, Harrison, Mendoza, Nippert all started with varied results...most of them bad.  But who among us expected a smooth transition?  Every kid has to take their lumps and their lumps were duly taken.  For 2009, however, we expect one of Harrison, hurley, Nippert, and Hunter to assert themselves over Spring Training and win the #5 spot outright making a rotation (discounting any FA or trade acquisitions) of Milly, Padzilla, Feldman, BMac and one of  Nip/Hunter/harrison/Hurley.  The bull-pen looks crowded with Madrigal looking like he could grow into a Frankie Frank redux and Mendoza looking ok as a long reliever.  Brandon Boggs and Chris Davis looked outstanding in their call-ups and Duran, Arias and Teagarden look ok without excelling.  Nellie Cruz's last chance with the Rangers is going, but he's not overly impressing.  So an outfield of Murphy, Hamilton, Byrd, Boggs and Catalanotto looks like what will stick next year, with Davis playing 1st or 3rd and Duran reprising his Utility man role.  Arias, Teagarden and MaxRam are wildcards as their spots on the roster are almost solely dependant on off-season moves. 

Down on the farm:  Almost too many great stories to list.  Holland, Feliz, Beavan, Main, Poveda, Perez, Boscan, Kennil, MaxRam, Moreland, Andrus, Vallejo, Borbon, Beltre, Neil Ramirez all had slid to excellent seasons and did nothing but heighten our expectations of their abilities.  Guys like West, Phillips, Evan Reed, Kiker, Wittleman, Mayberry all had solid season in terms of numbers but made great strides in their development.  Our 2009 expectation?  More of the same!  Feliz and Holland as dominant duo, Beavan and Main continuing to show why they were 1st rounders.  There's no clear-cut example of a player who could/should be up in the Majors come opening day, but a case could be made for Borbon, Max, teagarden and even Andrus.  The minors will once again be a bright light in the Rangers organization in 2009.

2008 Draftees: Justin Smoak, Robbie Ross, Tim and Clark Murphy, Wieland and Bianucci were all headliners of another solid-great draft.  Most of the aforementioned guys have already signed and are already enjoying solid intro's to pro ball.  Smoak's expectation?  Bakersfield or even Frisco.  Ross and Wieland to Clinton.  Clark Murphy and maybe even Bianucci could also realistically make that jump to Clinton as well...if it weren't for a bit of roster congestion. 

 

As we see, our expectations for 2008 included more fringey prospects and question marks than anything else with really only Davis, Kiker, Poveda, Phillips, Lemon, Hurley, Font and Fabio as prospects considered top-end (and Ranger originals) excelling for a full year.  2008 saw a LOT of questions answered and also saw great (and in some instances jaw-dropping) development from our youngsters in the minor leagues.  Some disappointments were had but those didn't come anywhere close to drowning out the positives.   This time last year we had a lot less tangible results to consider, as compared to this year.  Really the only top prospects we have yet to see is Robbie Ross.  The rest have either done their thing all season or have started out doing well in their short stints in the pro's. 

So in summation...Vamanos a la ano de 2009!

 

 

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Awesome post, H-L

One other memory that I have from last off-season was the realization that for the first time in recent memory the Rangers AAA rotation would include a number of solid prospects (Hurley, Mendoza, Galaragga, Murray, Diamond), while the AA rotation would be a wasteland reminiscent of previous years. The rotations for the Rangers top two minor league teams in 2009 should be absolutely amazing with AAA (Hunter, Hurley and/or Harrison, Diamond, and Hyatt) and AA (Feliz, Holland, Kiker, Poveda) rotations that are as talented as any in minor league baseball.

by spurdynasty on Sep 6, 2008 9:52 AM CDT reply actions  

Nelson

Cruz is now hitting .327/.421/.592 during his call-up. Small sample size? Yep, but so were his poor numbers in previous seasons. I’d like to see him manning RF next year.

--Brian

by BCanfield on Sep 10, 2008 6:33 AM CDT reply actions  

I tend to agree

Let him man RF, put Boggs in AAA to start next year (if he, Byrd and/or Cat are not dealt over the winter) and if Nelson reverts to what we’ve all seen the past two seasons, release/trade him and bring up Boggs. it would suck for Boggs, but Nelson has a higher potential…

What's the rumpus?

by Hypo-Luxa on Sep 10, 2008 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

Straight Ball I Hit Very Much

I would also imagine if he flounders in the AL, an NL team would give him a shot, and he would be more likely to succeed.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
"If you ain't got no money, ain't nobody calls you honey," Bo Diddley

by Rodney on Sep 10, 2008 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Tiny wee sample but

He has nailed a couple of breaking balls low and away into RF for a single and a wall busting double respectively, and let a few more go to take walks. Both are good signs.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Sep 10, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Your optimism

You’ve been on the Cruz Wagon for a long time and probably the only one at times. I always hoped you would be right in predicting that Cruz would become good if not better than good. Hopefully this version of Nelly sticks.

He’s also laid off a few pitches that were a bit high or low and outside he’d usually be flailing at. Very encouraging indeed

What's the rumpus?

by Hypo-Luxa on Sep 10, 2008 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm starting...

to come around on that idea. His leash would be short. However it would allow Boggs to play everyday at OKC and if Cruz doesn’t work out then let him go and bring up Boggs, no harm no foul. As long as Cruz continues to hit well in the next three weeks I think he has a shot of making this team next year.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 10, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cruz

But would he get to play everyday? Hamilton has a spot locked down everyday. Murphy will be back and should be playing alot if not everyday. If Byrd is back I imagine he gets a majority share of the playing time. Cruz would be relegated to backup role. Could he handle that? Im not dismissing the idea just wanting to find out if the same people who want him to play RF next year realize it won’t be on an everyday basis.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Sep 10, 2008 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think...

both Murphy and Byrd will be back. I see one of them being included in a deal for pitching.

If Byrd and Murphy are back then yes I would still start Cruz in RF everyday and use Byrd to spell all 3 OFers since he can play above average defense in all 3 OF positions.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 10, 2008 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

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