Sunday a.m. things
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 7, 2008 10:15 AM CDT
52 comments
Texas is 4 1/2 games up on Oakland now, with 19 to go (20 to go for the A's). They need to go 10-9 to hit the 80-82 record I predicted before the season, and 11-8 to finish at .500. As I think everyone knows since finishing first in the West in 1999, they've yet to finish higher than 3rd, and have finished above .500 just once.
That long streak of losing is, I think, the biggest reason the Rangers are looking at their worst season of attendance since TBIA opened in 1994. Fans want to see a team that wins. For most of this decade, the Rangers have been a losing team.
Evan Grant says that the Rangers are looking for answers about what they can expect going forward from, among others, Josh Hamilton, Matt Harrison, and Nelson Cruz, and both showed the Rangers something yesterday -- Hamilton that is isn't worn down yet, Harrison that he can bounce back from a bad inning and give the Rangers innings, Cruz that some of that power he showed in AAA (and in batting practice) can translate to the majors.
There was some discussion in the game day thread last night about why the Rangers waited until September to call up Cruz, and put themselves in a position where, regardless of what he does this month, there are still going to be questions about him.
My guess is that the team doesn't see Cruz in its future plans in any case -- it sees Josh Hamilton as its right fielder of the future, possibly as soon as 2009, and Cruz as trade bait. My guess is that the Rangers felt he wasn't going to help his trade value any by coming up to the majors before he did, and thus they chose to leave him in AAA and see what they could get for him. I'll be very surprised if they don't end up moving him before December.
Jeff Wilson says Harrison battled and made adjustments after giving up the Youkilis home run, which is what allowed Harrison to give the Rangers six innings.
Although Ron Washington says Warner Madrigal is getting a look as the 8th inning guy, Jamey Wright says he likes the 8th inning role and wants a shot at it going forward.
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Cruz
I think Cruz’s return will depend on if we bring Bradley back. If we bring Bradley back, things get crowded, but if he doesn’t, and Cruz shows power the rest of the way, we’ll need the power potential in the line-up.
Oh, and there is the bit about JD’s trade scorecard. A Cruz turn around would give JD a boost.
by mattrpav on Sep 7, 2008 10:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wright
If he wants the 8th inning role, take it ffs! If you want it, don’t go in and walk three guys in a row. I hope Warner and Frankie take their prospective roles by the throat and don’t let go. I’m tired of having my sphincter seize up to the size of a raisin every time the bullpen is called in to hold a lead.
What's the rumpus?
by Hypo-Luxa on Sep 7, 2008 10:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Completely Agree...
If Jamey wants that job, tell him to go pitch like he wants it… He’s been awful for a month now.
by N41D on Sep 7, 2008 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
make that 3 months
5.4 era in june, 8.16 in july.
the preceding post is not nearly as negative or insulting as you think it is
by DSheppard on Sep 7, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz...
Not sure if he’s the one that goes, but someone in the OF will.
Between Cruz, Byrd, and Murphy at least one of those guys will have to go. Murphy would have the most value and could be included in a deal for a pitcher. It will be interesting to see which OF and which catcher <cough, OMFT, cough> will go this winter. It will be a very intriguing winter of moves for JD
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 7, 2008 11:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Attendance
Well on the bright side it’s easy to get a good seat. I think I was at that game Nolan referenced at 12K+. I think they must have counted the players and vendors to get over the 10,000 mark. We were about to get tickets and when I asked the lady said we have plenty of seats anywhere you like. About then a season ticket holder approached me at the window and gave me his tickets saying he didn’t want them. Nice.
Foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of little minds - Emerson
by RangerEddie on Sep 7, 2008 11:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hamilton in RF
begs the question, who plays CF? Byrd? Borbon? Byrd early, then Borbon later in the season? For defense, I like the idea of Borbon in CF, with Hamilton in RF and Murphy/Byrd/Boggs playing LF and extra outfielders.
Is Borbon capable of a .700 OPS in the major leagues next April? Is his defense good enough to make that a valid question? He has just over 2 months in AA, and his nice looking OPS is very batting average dependent — and that batting average is perhaps inflated by a little luck. On the other hand, he’s gotten better month by month and with each promotion.
It would be awfully risky to count on him as a fulltime player next spring. I’d put him in AA and/or AAA for at least a couple of months first.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on Sep 7, 2008 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My guess
Borbon takes over as CF by Opening Day 2010. It may be 2010, it may be sometime in 2009, it could be Opening Day 2009 (although I doubt it).
But by April 2010, Hamilton will be in RF and Borbon will be in CF.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 7, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2007 draft
The rapid ascension of Borbon and my recollection of the grave concerns from many Ranger fans about potentially selecting Borbon in the first round sent me to the 2007 draft list. I admit to not being particularly aware of other team’s farm systems, but there are a lot of first round picks whom I have not heard mentioned on national prospect sites. Mesoraco, Kozma, Withrow, Arencibia, Schmidt, and Fairley were all first round picks about whom I rarely hear. Brackman, Savery, Ahrens, Detwiler, and Moskos are guys that I believe rank at or below Borbon at this point. Given what he’s done so far, is it possible that Borbon would be a non-supplemental first-round pick if teams had the opportunity for a 2007 draft do-over?
by spurdynasty on Sep 7, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Borbon
He’s a relatively low-ceiling guy who is almost certainly never going to be a real good offensive player, and I think that’s the issue with him. Using the #17 pick in the first round on a guy who, if he pans out, is probably going to hit 9th, is scary.
That said, he and Hunter — the other low-risk, low-upside first rounder — both appear to be more likely to have major league careers than any of the three high school pitchers taken. The Rangers did a nice job of mixing safe bets with guys who have significant upside.
Also, I think there were questions about how good Borbon’s defense really is when he was coming out. The scouting reports were good, but then, the scouting reports on David Murphy’s centerfield defense were good. If Borbon has to move to a COF spot, he’s useless. By all accounts, though, he’s a guy who is going to be an above-average major league centerfielder, defensively.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 7, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're comping the reports on Murphy's CF defense to the reports on Bourbon's CF defense?
Really? Why?
Murphy was always a grit/instincts/arm CF’er whereas Borbon is consistently reported as having true CF’er tools like 70 speed and all that. That’s a weak ass comp. Why even bring it up?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Sep 7, 2008 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay
I went back and looked, and Murphy’s CF defense wasn’t as highly touted as I thought.
I guess the issue is, Borbon’s defense was well regarded coming out, but it wasn’t a slam-dunk that he was going to be a top quality defensive CF’er in the pros. That, I think, is some of the concern about him that had folks freaked out about taking him at 17.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 7, 2008 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Borbon
Never going to be a good offensive player?
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but the K rate is very fine (better than Crawford’s MiL rate, iirc), and he deserves some credit for hitting .320-something in AA with a little pop.
The K rate is what encourages with Borbon, though. The ceiling for him is Crawford offensively, and the D’s supposed to be elite.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 8, 2008 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never going to be a real good offensive player
His ceiling is limited, because he doesn’t walk and he isn’t going to hit for a ton of power. He was someone who was ever expected to be a .290+ EQA guy.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 8, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If thats the case...
then theres no reason that Cruz shouldn’t be the opening day RF if he continues to play well for the rest of the year. Hamilton can stay in CF for 2009, and regardless of whether or not we resign Bradley we still need an everyday RF because I highly doubt the organization sees him as anything more than a DH going forward. Deal Murphy or Byrd and roll with Murphy/Byrd in left, Hammy in CF, and Cruz in right. Let Cruz play right for the year and see what he can do. If he sucks it up, DFA his ass and play Boggs. Then let Borbon take over CF when ready and move Hamilton to RF.
by erikj07 on Sep 7, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I like it. I’d really like to see Murphy sold high, although his injury must drag the value down nominally.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 8, 2008 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wash sees Bradley in the OF
next year according to a piece on rangers.com….
by Goyogringo on Sep 8, 2008 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not trying to start anything but...
just trying to be helpful. I realize this isn’t baseball related so i’ll add…
I’d like to see Borbon start in AAA as well, and maybe give Byrd some more time in center. Hopefully he can build on his trade value and Borbon can be a call-up to replace him.
by chase182 on Sep 7, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to the info
on that site, I have never heard or read anyone use that phrase properly. Ever.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on Sep 8, 2008 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand why Boggs
is never mentioned in the CF mix. All reports were that he was a plus CF in AA, and his skills look like they would play well there.
"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve
by tricer on Sep 7, 2008 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's been one of the lingering
unanswered questions.
"The question of how we came to be is a philosophical one." - 4HIM
by Chase Irwin on Sep 7, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's got good insincts and a powerful, accurate arm
but from what I’ve seen he doesn’t have the top end speed necessary to be a legit CF’er at the big league level. Reminds me a lot of GMJ, Muprhy and Byrd. A ’tweener.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Sep 7, 2008 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
boggs
i’d say thats accurate based on what i saw from him in frisco. good outfield d but not a ton of speed. id say byrd / gmj isnt a real bad comp. but its not like hamilton is a speed demon either.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Sep 7, 2008 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been wondering that too
Not only has he not been mentioned for the future CF mix, he hasn’t even played a single game in CF in the Majors. Maybe the Rangers feel his best value to the team defensively is in LF or maybe they simply don’t think he is as good as their other candidates.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Sep 7, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wright wants the 8th inning job?
Actions speak louder than words. It sure as hell seems like he doesn’t want to do anything but watch the game from the bench.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Sep 7, 2008 11:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't think it really matters...
what he wants.
Next year I’m pretty sure it will be BGL/Fx2 or Fx2/BGL in the 8th and 9th innings. Plus I think Warner will be the 7th inning guy so if the Electrician wants to come back to the Rangers ’pen I doubt it will be as a late innings guy.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 7, 2008 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Laird for DelCarmen straight up.
Hey, you suck McBain.
by oc on Sep 7, 2008 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting idea
Delcarmen has a cannon. You can never have too many relievers with pure strikeout stuff.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Sep 7, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
attendance
My wife works at the ballpark and she is of the opinion that any attendance figure quoted is not butts in seats but tickets sold and that includes the season tickets. 10K in attendence may only have 3K in actual seats.
¡yo soy Horsedooty!
I soloed in the Mile High Club!
by horsedooty on Sep 7, 2008 11:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That is a wide known fact
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Sep 7, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think there's been a game this year...
…when there have been only 3K in the seats.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 7, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Evan Grant said on Wednesday afternoon that it was his estimation that there were fewer than 2,500 in attendance.
by jamcadbury on Sep 7, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not Many Fans
I was at the game on Tuesday evening and I’m sure there were fewer than 10K.
Foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of little minds - Emerson
by RangerEddie on Sep 7, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Way!
If Jamey Wright is the 8th inning guy, we will only have two at bats to make up for all the runs he will give up. Not interested.
Leave him as a sixth inning guy so we have plenty of time to catch up when he blows up!
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Sep 7, 2008 12:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to see Wright as the 8th inning guy
for the Angels, Mariners, or A’s.
He sucks and I really wish that the Rangers would stop falling in love with spares like him and Franklyn German in ST.
Next year I’d like to see the bullpen built with rebuilding in mind, not retreading.
"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve
by tricer on Sep 7, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Concur
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 7, 2008 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the Economy!
I think linking the economy with low attendance would be wise.
In our day of HD-TV, it makes sense, you can skip some games and save some cash. I did. Thanks to beer and food prices, it’s pretty hard for us not to spend $100 when we go. 5 less games. $500 saved. I doubt I’m the only one.
by 3Bagger on Sep 7, 2008 11:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I definitely think...
there is something to be said for that.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 7, 2008 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that.
I think versus 20 years ago, ballparks have changed their pricing models, so that most of the good tickets are really aimed at being sold to corporate expense accounts versus Families. The new model is sell as many season tickets to corporations as possible, if you have a good year, the walkup takes care of itself, if you have a bad year, use discounts and giveaways.
During the last few years, I doubt season tickets have been a huge draw to get marketing folks to drag potential customers out to the ballgame to get face time. With companies cutting expenses, it looks like an easy cut to drop the season tickets.
So the current price point is too high for the family market, and the team performance is too low for the corporate market and the current economy tells companies to make spending cuts, and they end up cutting nonperforming entertainment expenses.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.
"JD is a great GM if you ignore the giving away pitching and handing out horrible contract stuff."-Tricer
by DJCahill on Sep 8, 2008 4:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jon D
My personal circumstances are anecdotal evidence, I guess. I just thought it was worth noting that, despite not going much in 2008, I have been thrilled with JD and his program. The overall organization seems to be thinking again. Pitching is an issue and all. JD has blown it here and there, but, I hope they keep him. Despite my need to use $500 in other places in 2008. The TV experience (and Adam’s Blog) make it easy to enjoy the experience. For much less money. Thanks for the comments, DJ.
by 3Bagger on Sep 8, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My budget doesn't hinge on the economy
My income has not changed substantially over the last couple of year. I didn’t go to many games then, and I am not going to many now. No matter how good the general economy is, I’m not going to suddenly have a lot more money to spend parking my car and buying baseball tickets. The one thing that has definitely changed is gas prices. That combined with the lower cost of parking and tickets (and the interest in prospects) means I chose Frisco over Arlington this year.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on Sep 8, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think though
the issue is that what happens to individuals doesn’t swing attendance nearly as much as what happens to companies.
The backbone of any seasons attendance is season ticket sales, since announced attendance is paid attendance, not actual attendance. It’d be tough for me to imagine that announced sales dropped that much with out a significant drop in season tickets.
It’s going to be a challenge to get season tickets back, without a stronger economy, or without performance. If I had a marketing budget, I’d just as soon put my money into Cowboy tickets or dinners out, or quite a few other options. I can’t imagine that potential customers are beating down companies doors for a chance to see a perenially bad team play. If the Rangers become the place to be, it’ll be much easier for companies to buy season tickets out of their marketing budget. Right now, its just a tough sell.
I think the corporate market is even more fickle than the family market, and the family market has been priced out of regularly attending games for awhile now.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.
"JD is a great GM if you ignore the giving away pitching and handing out horrible contract stuff."-Tricer
by DJCahill on Sep 8, 2008 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, my reply was to 3 bagger
who talked about saving himself $500. I agree with your above posts, and yes, I too think there will be a lag in ticket sales even as the Rangers get better. It took time for the attendance to get down this far, and it will take perhaps an entire season or more of winning for the ticket sales to tick back up.
O Freunde, nicht diese Töne!
Sondern laßt uns angenehmere anstimmen,
und freudenvollere.
by t ball on Sep 8, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, normally you don't see the big move up
til you have a good season, and a good offseason marketing campaign, especially if you pick up a player or two. The GM and the team on the field haven’t done much to help out the ticket sales.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
"I just hope enough dumb oversexed over self-esteemed American public educated female liberals (yeah, you know the type) vote for a woman because she has a vagina, to swing some things."- Sharky.
"JD is a great GM if you ignore the giving away pitching and handing out horrible contract stuff."-Tricer
by DJCahill on Sep 8, 2008 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz
Does his trade value outweigh the possible upside?
If he actually learned something in AAA (as reflected in the numbers) and his D is so good, and there’s really no other significant player to crowd the outfield except Borbon (who may not be ready until late next year).
Cruz’s trade value is insignificant. The rest of the league is even more non-plused than the Rangers.
I say keep him. Deal a guy who’s coming back to Earth in Murphy (his doppelganger is in AAA right now).
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 8, 2008 8:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
When viewing Cruz' "possible" upside
one must take into account the fact that his AAA year this year was alomost identical as last years prorated numbers, save for an explosion in SB. Also, He has played 300+ games in AAA, will have a full year in the majors by season’s end, and he will be 29 next July.
I am ok with all the other ranger OF options currently on the 40 and in AAA (and Borbon) and don’t think any of them should be dumped in favor of Cruz’ “upside” no matter what Cruz does this month.
by Goyogringo on Sep 8, 2008 4:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What about...
the fact that a guy like Murphy will have much more value and could be a big piece in a deal for pitching?
I would much rather do that and keep Cruz.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 8, 2008 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Murphy
He won’t be a “big” piece in a deal for pitching. He could be a piece but no team is going to center a deal around David Murphy.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Sep 8, 2008 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said anything...
about centering a deal aroung him.
I don’t think that means he cant be a significant piece that a team looks for though. If you are looking for a good young starter it will take three or four pieces to get him and Murphy could be one of those guys. That’s all I was saying.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Sep 8, 2008 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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