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Which stats are the best stats?

Having lurked here for over a year and posting meaningless comments the last 2 mos, I remain just as clueless as I was before finding this site.  Despite playing the game through my early 20's, when it comes to all the different statistical analysis other than ba/hr/rbi/sb I am admittedly over my head.

I've heard of all the different stats to gauge a player's legit'ness re: hitting, fielding, pitching, defense, etc..  BUT, what do you heads think is the best stat for each, and why?

I know this is a rather broad fanpost, and whether it merits a fanpost is in question.

I could probably go to some other forums and look for their reasoning, but I figured it'd give y'all something to talk/argue about...and help some schlepps like me out (I know you're out there)...

Appreciate ya.

1 recs  |  Comment 53 comments

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how about

justVORP?

But, this is mainly for hitters.

by Longhorn on Jan 10, 2009 9:52 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I missed that

Thanks for the link, there’s some good stuff there.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jan 11, 2009 12:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That methodology is awesome.

And it’s all basically available at FanGraphs now, which is awesome.

For fielding, UZR is as good a system out there, but +/- and PMR are approximately just as good. And it would be nice to include a fielding stat using data from both stats providers to remove some bias.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 20, 2009 9:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Signed,

Steal home.

Did Jon Daniels downsize your old position at Dunking Donuts?

by lonestarJon on Jan 10, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ERA+

"And the Rangers looking to win it! The Rangers have won it!"
-- Josh Lewin, Sept 23, 2004

by Agreen07 on Jan 10, 2009 10:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not much of a stathead myself

But I’ve tried to keep up with which stats the intellegent people on here use, and from there infuence, here are the ones I usually use:

For pitchers, tRA and tRA+ (which you can find at the statcorner) along FIP (which, along with a host of other stuff can be found at fangraphs) are supposed to be the latest and greatest evaluations (at least from what I’ve heard around here). ERA+ (which can be found at BR, along with OPS+) is a little more basic than the aforementioned ones, but still good for a quick and dirty evaluation. I always try to look at good old fashioned WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and K/BB along with the heavier stats when I’m looking closely at a pitcher as well.

For hitters I haven’t really gotten much futher than OPS+ and VORP for basic evaluation (I should also mention ISO, which I think is supposed to be better than SLG% for determing power)… and I really know nothing about defensive stats beyond John Dewan’s plus/minus system, which is supposed to be one of the most thourough evaluations out there.

Here’s THT’s glossary, which should provide some basic descriptions of most of the stats I just referenced.

Did Jon Daniels downsize your old position at Dunking Donuts?

by lonestarJon on Jan 10, 2009 10:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

ISO

Its better than SLG because it only takes extra base hits into account. A great singles hitter might not have much power, but his SLG won’t reflect it nearly as much as his ISO would.

And Ryan, there are a lot of stats out there at Baseball Prospectus and Hardball Times that have some overall stats to look at, but also something to remember is that there is a lot to look at past this. I like Fangraphs a ton for this reason because you can see Batted Ball statistics, plate discipline statistics, the types of pitches hitters see as well as the ones pitchers throw (including velocity), and they have full UZR data which is a good fielding metric. So I wouldn’t necessarily worry about finding one great stat to look at since there really isn’t one exact number 1 stat.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jan 11, 2009 12:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ISO vs. SLG

It depends how you’re using the number. SLG correlates better with run production, but it’s also a more complete number. If you’re just talking about power, ISO might more accurately measure what you’re talking about.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 20, 2009 9:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i like +/- for defense as well

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Jan 11, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think the 2 best stats

are RBIs and Fielding Percentage

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Jan 11, 2009 2:03 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Heh

Did Jon Daniels downsize your old position at Dunking Donuts?

by lonestarJon on Jan 11, 2009 3:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

why even bother with fielding percentage

when you can just look at how many gold gloves a guy has

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jan 11, 2009 8:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Trust me, Ryin

After reading the comments in the Pedro Strop blog, most of the commenters have neither played baseball nor have a greater clue than you about the fundamentals of baseball…Promise! No need for intimidation or begging, my friend.

I'm just killing time until I'm reincarnated.

by Clueless on Jan 11, 2009 2:04 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Which one?

The fanshot that’s on the front page? Even you can’t find anything objectionable in that, can you?

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on Jan 11, 2009 3:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ben I'm waiting for that pic change

"And the Rangers looking to win it! The Rangers have won it!"
-- Josh Lewin, Sept 23, 2004

by Agreen07 on Jan 11, 2009 3:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ben's pic

Always reminds me of this:

Did Jon Daniels downsize your old position at Dunking Donuts?

by lonestarJon on Jan 11, 2009 4:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Taint is good...

but, you know, I’m really attached to the donkey.

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on Jan 11, 2009 4:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

understandable

"And the Rangers looking to win it! The Rangers have won it!"
-- Josh Lewin, Sept 23, 2004

by Agreen07 on Jan 11, 2009 4:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

When I have some extra money...

I’m going to fence my whole yard so I can get a miniature donkey. Man, those things are awesome.

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on Jan 11, 2009 5:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha nice

"And the Rangers looking to win it! The Rangers have won it!"
-- Josh Lewin, Sept 23, 2004

by Agreen07 on Jan 11, 2009 3:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ha

funny thing is that that post probably has a greater collection of pitchers posting on it than any other

Mandatory reading before suggesting a trade

by ab03 on Jan 11, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ryin, here's my thoughts...

I primarily look at OPS+ and ERA +, which is like uber-unsophisticated in these parts. I would say this, though… the stats have to mean something to you, or else there’s no point in using them. There has to be a frame of reference. I like the “normalized” + stats, because I know 100 is average and above and below by certain amounts gives me a definite idea of how the player compares to other players.

That’s not to say that other stats aren’t “better,” or anything. Similarly, I recognize that in many ways, metric measurements are “better.” However, when I’m reading a reference book that says P. vigilax = 6 cms, I have to then convert it inches to conceptualize how big that fish is, because I have a frame of reference for inches but not centimeters. Thus, Adam will frequently reference EQA, but it doesn’t mean a whole lot to me because I don’t know what a good EQA is and what a bad one is. I could look it up each time he referenced it, I guess, but I really can’t be bothered.

So, what I’m saying is to find something for which you can establish a frame of reference, and use that. And just familiarize yourself with the methodology for the other stats.

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on Jan 11, 2009 4:40 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

This makes a lot of sense.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 11, 2009 5:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

good advice

there is still plenty of debate even among statheads about how keen some metric is over another so choosing one that makes sense to you is the way to go. You’ll discover some new +/revised stat every year so those debates between stat geeks is interminable. As many have suggested here some traditional scouting profiles combined with some deeper metrics give you as good an idea as your likely to get over a players performance/projection.

by Goyogringo on Jan 11, 2009 6:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

For what its worth

League AVerage EQA is always 260. EQA is also a normalized stat.

However, I think your point about OPS+ and ERA+ is fairly well taken.

The common problem with OPS+ I do see, is that its up to the individual to position weight it. For instance, a 100 OPS+ 1B is not all that good, but a 100 OPS+ SS or C is very good. Basicly, a 1B needs to hit significantly better than league average for all positional players, since any idiot can play 1B.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Jan 11, 2009 7:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

except sosa

Mandatory reading before suggesting a trade

by ab03 on Jan 11, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

agree

I aggree with Ben and Cahill. For ML players I start with ERA+ and OPS+. But you need to keep in mind the position and role of the player. Lets use Franklyn German as an example. His era and era+ last year were 2.08 and 212. Wow! Those #s look great. Why did the Rangers release him? He allowed too many inherited runners to score. RW was using him as a fireman type of reliever. German would come into the game with runners on base and was expected to get out of the situation without giving up any runs. He didn’t do his job. Whatever #s you use, there needs to be some perspective applied.

Mitch Moreland - Rangers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year

by RangerMad on Jan 11, 2009 11:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Again, though...

I don’t have a frame of reference for tRA+, so it’s basically meaningless to me. I would have to “convert” it in my head to something I find meaningful, which makes the stat of limited use to me.

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on Jan 11, 2009 7:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Lower is good

higher is bad.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 11, 2009 9:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Which is counterintuitive ;)

Give me Sheets or give me Offseason Blues Part III.

by Chase Irwin on Jan 12, 2009 6:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

tRA is easy.

It’s just how many runs a pitcher allows per 9 within his control.

And, obviously, tRA+ should give you the exact same frame of reference as ERA+. It’s the same thing, pretty much, as far s what it’s representing.

by philkid3 on Jan 13, 2009 1:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The fielding independent stats also tell a bit of a different story

than the stats that don’t adjust for defense.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jan 11, 2009 7:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

wOBA is even better than EqA

wOBA is a rate stat on the OBP scale (.333ish is average, .300 is pretty bad, .370 is pretty good, and .400+ is awesome).

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 20, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Stats

It seems that whichever stat helps support your argument is automatically the best based on the posts here.
And anything with a + after it is apparently good too.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Jan 11, 2009 4:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Favorite stats? hmmph

Probably 36-25-34

Any woman who can throw some curves like that will stay in my rotation.

"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer

by rodcarew on Jan 11, 2009 8:38 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Personally,

I like Win Shares.

Yes there are other stats available but when I ask somebody what time it is, I don’t want them to tell me how to make a watch.

Win Shares tells you what time it is and whether or not somebody can play or not.

Speaking of which, if you go to hardballtimes.com, you can go to stats and find out about Win Shares.

You’ll also find out that Michael Young (in a down year and playing with two broken fingers) had more Win Shares than any other AL SS in 2008.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=total&direction=DESC&season_filter5B5D=2008&league_filter5B5D=AL&pos_filter5B5D=SS&Submit=Submit

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Jan 11, 2009 9:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Fielding Win Shares

Oddly enough, Young was second in Fielding Win Shares at 7.3. Orlando Cabrera had 8.0. According to +/- from 2006 to 2008, Michael Young is tied for fourth worst SS with -32.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Jan 11, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe fielding win shares

uses double plays in their formula which would explain why Young is ranked that high.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jan 11, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh. Apparently, the best way to prove a fielding stat is accurate ...

is if it confirms that Young is a really shitty short stop. Plus/minus is a good example. As I’ve tried to educate myself with how the stat is accumulated, I discovered that Young was also a crappy second baseman, which runs contrary to everything we ever heard about him at second. Still it seems that the stats that say he is a poor defender are those that tend to be deified as the most accurate.

by Athos on Jan 11, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just Saying...

There is a large discrepancy between two defensive stats. Since Win Shares is the more ambitious of the two stats (it is designed so that people can compare hitters and pitchers adjusted for both league and park effects), I assume that it probably is not as reliable as something like +/-.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Jan 11, 2009 8:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Win Shares has a lot of faults.

If you want something on the scale of “how many wins did this guy help his team win above what a crappy replacement-level player would have done?”, then use WAR over at FanGraphs.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 20, 2009 9:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hm.

Pitching: tRA, FIP, xFIP
Hitting: wOBA, EqA
Fielding: UZR, +/-

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 11, 2009 1:01 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks gang

Looks like I have a lot of reading to do, appreciate the input.

Freddie King rules faces.

by Ryin A on Jan 11, 2009 1:59 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Runs Created

Always like Bill James’ old runs created.
Runs + RBI – HR
Simple, but effective. Anything over 200 is fantastic.

by scoop16 on Jan 11, 2009 3:22 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

That's not Bill James Run's Created formula.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

Jeff's guide to not looking stupid:
+/- is an absolutely terrible stat, so don't use it, and don't give up on young players before they turn 24.
54!

by joof on Jan 11, 2009 5:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't tell if you're kidding or not.

Because that’s a pretty common joke, and I’m laughing appropriately if you aren’t.

by philkid3 on Jan 13, 2009 1:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Doh!

Sure enough. I got a bad memory, but I still like the simplicity of the formula. Thanks.

by scoop16 on Jan 11, 2009 6:03 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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