THT: Ranger Futility Reigns Supreme

by jwiscarson on Jan 15, 2009 1:37 PM CST Comment 29 comments

This article at The Hardball Times ranks the chances of various long streaks of winless...ness. Although there aren't many such streaks compared, we nevertheless nailed top honors.

I've never heard of Rangers fans getting up in arms about how miserable their team's performance has been historically, maybe because it includes some Senators years, but the Rangers have outdone two Cubs streaks in terms of futility.

An interesting read otherwise, talking about the methods used to determine the chances of these events. Personally, I always bring the Rangers' one playoff win up in sports futility discussions. Granted, the article also mentions the Arizona Cardinals -- can anyone think of comparable incidents in other sports?

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Well..

They list the Cardinals as having the longest active streak of missing the final four. Whoops. That is over. Rangers win.

Maude Lebowski: Lord. You can imagine where it goes from here.
The Dude: He fixes the cable?

by Heebs on Jan 15, 2009 2:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I mention how bad the Rangers have been...

when we become good again in 2011, the common folk better not try to jump on the bandwagon.

"I have kids, so when I get on the mound I see someone else trying to steal my job and make my life hell. So I try to do the same thing to them." -- Eric Gagne

by Agreen07 on Jan 15, 2009 2:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

What?

I want the Rangers bandwagon to be massive. More fans = more money.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Jan 15, 2009 3:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I meant to say

I don’t want them to say “I’ve been following this team forever and have suffered…I’m so happy now”

"I have kids, so when I get on the mound I see someone else trying to steal my job and make my life hell. So I try to do the same thing to them." -- Eric Gagne

by Agreen07 on Jan 15, 2009 3:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

First chick in a pink hat with a "T" on the front gets it

And not the good “it”.

And there are others who were born with the wisdom to know that nothing lasts.
These are the truly tough among us, the ones who can live without illusion, or without even the hope of illusion.
I am not that grown-up or up-to-date. I am a simpler creature, tied to more primitive patterns and cycles.
I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun.

by WyoRanger on Jan 15, 2009 6:00 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Its funny to me

that sometimes you get some Rangers fans thinking the Rangers are basicly an average franchise. Just on average, the Rangers should be winning the division every 4 years, and making the wildcard an additional once every 16 years. So basicly, 5 years in 16 the Rangers should be playoff bound, or almost 1 year out of every 3.

The deck is stacked incredibly in the Rangers favor in terms of making the playoffs, but they just can’t find a way.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Jan 15, 2009 2:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

That signature fucking rocks

Nah, noob.

by Brian Thomas on Jan 15, 2009 2:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Is that a reference to Gran Torino?

"I have kids, so when I get on the mound I see someone else trying to steal my job and make my life hell. So I try to do the same thing to them." -- Eric Gagne

by Agreen07 on Jan 15, 2009 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

GREAT movie

I saw it last weekend. Clint Eastwood is the angriest old man alive in that movie. Everything is great except the awkward song/singing at the end.

by Michael Cave on Jan 15, 2009 3:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I've never heard more derogatory terms

about Asian before in my life. Great movie though, Eastwood is so good.

"I have kids, so when I get on the mound I see someone else trying to steal my job and make my life hell. So I try to do the same thing to them." -- Eric Gagne

by Agreen07 on Jan 15, 2009 3:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I can practically hear Dirk's blood boiling as I read this

Nah, noob.

by Brian Thomas on Jan 15, 2009 3:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Clint Eastwood

one of the greatest Actor/Directors of any generation.

If only he would do the sequel to Transformers, Dirkatron might be able to acknowledge that.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Jan 15, 2009 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yah. The kid has standards

Hyper-vehement, totally arbitrary standards, but standards nonetheless…

Nah, noob.

by Brian Thomas on Jan 15, 2009 5:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I saw GT last night and...

…sorry Dirk, at least a 9 on the 10-point scale.

We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.

by Chad Crudup on Jan 15, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I give it a B+, or maybe an A-, yeah, that's right...Movie Watching is a Spoht.

I haven’t watched GT, but:

The Wrestler is freakin’ greatness. And Man on Wire is a stunning, introspective look at what drives men…definately recommend.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jan 15, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As soon as The Wrestler is playing at a theater...

…that I can reach on a single tank of gas I will be seeing it.

We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.

by Chad Crudup on Jan 15, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought you lived in Arlington?

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jan 15, 2009 5:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I do but my car...

…has a very small gas tank.

Seriously though, I try not to go to Dallas for anything.

When The Wrestler is at Parks Mall I will be there.

We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.

by Chad Crudup on Jan 16, 2009 8:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Parks Mall

on the weekends at the AMC is umm….interesting…..

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jan 16, 2009 9:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't know...

…that mall (and by extension I assume the theater) is way too overpopulated for me on the weekends. My movie-going nights at Parks are restricted to Mon-Wed.

We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.

by Chad Crudup on Jan 16, 2009 10:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

that would be recommended. We have made it a rule to avoid it on weekend nights.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jan 16, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the idea that each team has an equal chance to make the playoffs and that it’s 50/50 in each round of the playoffs is too simplistic. If talent were truly dispersed throughout both leagues then maybe that would be the case, but certain franchises had so much smarter executives and so much more talent that it skews the odds.

Consider how the Yankees would always take the Royals best talent and give them their old washed up veterans in return. Or how Branch Rickie created farm teams to give the Cardinals and later the Dodgers a huge leg up. Speaking of Rickie, he pioneered the introduction of Negro League talent for cheap into MLB while some teams were reluctant to include them. This was a major reason why the Red Sox were so lousy, they were the last MLB team to integrate.

Combine all those factors, and some teams just have no chance.

Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!

by DerekSTheRed on Jan 15, 2009 4:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

that the biggest factor is management/ownership.

It is clear that some teams are managed well, and some teams aren’t. You may be too young to remember, but I remember the Yankees Pre-Steinbrenner, and the franchise was crap for about a decade before he bought them. They rarely finished more than about 4th. Attendance per game was around 12-13K. People who think that Yankee Dominance is inevitable probably don’t believe it, but with bad management even the Yankees can become a crappy franchise.

The Rangers have always been one of the more mismanaged franchises. Other Franchises that are currently mismanaged, like the Royals and the Pirates, have had their day in the sun at somepoint in the franchise history. The Rangers biggest day in the sun was being one and done for 3 years in the ’90s.

The problem with the Rangers for the most part has been bad ownership/management more than anything else.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Jan 15, 2009 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

I agree.

You need some sort of weighted model, because otherwise you’re essentially saying that it’s as likely for a poorly managed/coached franchise to luck its way into success as it is for a well-run franchise to do the opposite. That’s just so far down on the scale of statistical unlikeliness it isn’t even funny.

by jwiscarson on Jan 15, 2009 6:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you are saying that.

I think its understood in the model that the teams that have the long runs have craptastic ownership/management.

The only way to have those long stretches is to be incompetent for large periods of time.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Jan 16, 2009 7:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's so weird that we all...

passionately follow the least relevant team in sports.

by ghostofErikThompson on Jan 15, 2009 7:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

they're not irrelevant,

they suck the most often.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 15, 2009 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but...

the Rangers can’t even do that right because no one even knows about it!

The Rangers aren’t beloved or known as losers any more than they are beloved or known at all.

by ghostofErikThompson on Jan 15, 2009 10:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think what all this shows...

is that 100 years may not be a long enough time to measure cycles of ownership, bad management, and so on. I think talent distribution is about as even as it can ever be with 30 teams absent some drastic measures, but obviously it wasn’t that way back in the day. Considering that the Yankees’ percentage odds of winning 26 World Series has 10 zeroes after the decimal point, some things weren’t quite about luck.

While it’s never really 50/50 in each round of the playoffs, if you have a large enough sample size things should average to that. Again, 1961-present for the Rangers may not actually be a large enough sample size; I have no problem admitting that. However, it’s a bit harder to measure precise odds for over given situation; that’s why I went with the abstract. I was more looking to shut up all the “we’re cursed” moanings than anything else, although I didn’t say that outright in the article.

Then again, what were the odds that every year the Rangers would run into the buzzsaw that was the Yankees? Two more wins in ’98 (or just one more against the Indians) and the Rangers would have gone to the first round against the Red Sox and not the Yankees, and that would have made a huge difference. It was almost the exact same situation in ’99 as well.

So yeah, my article is more an impressionistic piece in that you look at any specific situation and it’s not totally correct. Time heals all statistical abnormalities, or something like that.

Btw, the Arizona Cardinals thing is from A) me submitting the article on December 31, 2008 and it only getting published today, and B) me not following football well enough to change it.

-Brandon Isleib
THT

by earthdyedred on Jan 15, 2009 7:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs