naw, thats the problem. there a plenty of pitchers who at some point are considered future #1’s, Hughes is a perfect example, most of them dont amount to squat, and i still feel that salty is much more likely to reach his full potential.

What do you see as Salty’s “full potential” and what actual basis do you think there is for him reaching that ceiling? I’m not disagreeing that a deal between the Sox and Rangers will involve “projects” on both sides, but what I think you’re missing is the respective value the rest of the league places on the respective components involved.

Even if potential #1’s flame out at a high rate (something you might want to consider vis a vis Feliz/Holland/Main) how often are they actually traded, especially once they start knocking on the door of MLB? There’s a reason teams hold onto them with a death grip, even well after it looks like they’re not going to make it. I think Homer Bailey is probably a good example, how many teams do you think would be interested in him if the Reds shopped him? Do you think it would be more or less than seem to be currently interested in Salty?

Which Buchhoz’s history, you’re not telling me anything I don’t already know. The Laptop thing has been covered, and that’s one of the reasons that he probably fell as far as he did in the draft in the first place. I also don’t know that I would use a fingernail problem to indicate a long term concern about his health, those are traditionally reserved for arm injuries or constantly missing time (like Hughes has). Most of the Sox prospect hounds I know were pretty sure that the Sox stretched that out so they could keep his service time down. I also don’t see how a young SP working his innings up who hasn’t hit 200 IP by the end of his first full year counts as a long term concern about his durability. That seems like a pretty weak strawman to me.

Lastly, he did struggle last year, no question. But how many guys break into the league as rookie pitchers and experience adversity? My guess is about 95% of them. Why don’t you go find an example of a guy who just effortless breezed into the Show. I’ll find you 10 who struggled and went on to be just as good or better.

If you’re looking for an established ace SP with a history of throwing 200 innings, perhaps you could give me an example of who you think that is. I don’t think there’s necessarily anything wrong with you (or JD) holding out for a Scott Kazmir type trade, but it seems like you (and he) run a much greater risk of not improving the Rangers at all if that’s the case.

Of course you could always offer the Giants Salty for Tim Lincecum. I mean, they’re playing Bengie Molina behind the plate, so they’d have to love to get such a good young C as Salty, right?

Rotation: 5.60
Bullpen: 4.40

For a team ERA of about 5.20

Last season, 53 starts were made by guys other than Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Harrison, Hurley and Feldman. That’s right at a third of the team’s starts. That number figures to go down, but it still probably amounts to more than a full rotation spot. So it needs to be accounted for. And the expectation that those starts are going to be just a little worse than the team average completely ignores history as a guide.

Padilla has an average ERA of 5.00 in Texas. Millwood 4.92. If you takethe last two years, those become 5.25 and 5.11. The average of those two the last two years is 5.18.

I think the overwhelming key to your prediction being true, in addition to these two reverting back to 2006 performance level, is McCarthy staying healthy.

CD at 1B is an improvement. Metcalf and Duran is an improvement. MY healthy fingers are an improvement. KInsler has another year of experience I hope is an improvement. Also, a new IF coach is probably an improvement.

I commend him for his patience, but like you just said above, some will get better, some will be injured, and we’re likely to end up with a ridiculous ERA once again. I’d like to see them being more aggressive in trading away payroll if they need to clear up room to sign someone.

But this is the oddest offseason in memory. No one wants to spend money (even the Yankees haven’t increased payroll) AND teams are being very protective of their prospects and younger players. I don’t recall a winter in the last several years where both of those were true to this extent. I wonder if we’re seeing the result of many teams being more savvy about player valuation, aging/development curves and sabermetrics in addition to the traditional scouting. We’ve reached some sort of critical mass in terms of front office strategy around the league.

Yes, it was extremely unlikely to be as bad as it was last year, and what I am referring to is mostly the sad state of starters dictating such a high IP for the bullpen. Someone mentioned regression to the mean, and that has to occur at some point or it’s proof that baseball jesus hates the Rangers.

Hurley could be one of those types who blossoms in his 3rd year or so… while being average to a little below average his first couple years….