On infield offense, defense, and breaking even

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 20, 2009 10:19 AM CST Comment 30 comments

Over at Camden Depot, there is a post up that talks about (and has graphs on) what a player has to do with the bat at each of the four infield positions in order to break even as an average player at his position, given a set of possible defensive contributions.

The article isn't really clear, and the graphs are a little confusing at first, but I think it is ultimately an interesting and helpful examination of how the offense and defense for the different positions fit together in various ways to get to "average."

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SS

Interesting article and graphs.

I clicked on the SS table to try and get a feel for how Andrus might fare, compared to average. I assumed that he would be +10 runs defensively with slugging pct of about .350. According to the graph and these assumptions, Andrus would need an OBP of about .330 to be an “average” ML SS. I think he could do that, and I think I might have slightly underestimated his defense and his slugging.

"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."

by tricer on Jan 20, 2009 10:36 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well, assuming a 60 point spread

He’s going to have to hit .270. I think he could do that in year 2, certainly.

He’s going to have a lot of pitches to see because I doubt ML pitchers will fear his power.

Give me Sheets or give me Offseason Blues Part III.

by Chase Irwin on Jan 20, 2009 10:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

All he needs to do is hit near that

He’s also got some great speed and baserunning abilities to add some offensive value next year. If he underachieves that .330 OBP and gets around .310, I think he might still end up being a close to average player. I also feel more confident in Andrus’ hitting ability this year now that it looks like he won’t be starting the year in the Majors.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jan 20, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Comparing offensive production

vs position is rediculous. It should be done vs batting order.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year

by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2009 10:44 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

i see your point

but i think it really depends on what you are trying to accomplish with your information. if you are looking at the team as a whole, then yes batting order is the way to go, but if you are looking at one player against his position is the way to go.

by dustinvandeman on Jan 20, 2009 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

I don’t understand your position.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 20, 2009 11:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

example

Using MY as an example, I don’t care how he produces vs other thirdbaseman. What matters is how he compares to other players who bat 2nd.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year

by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're missing the point

this excerise combines offense and defense — therefore the player’s defensive position does matter.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jan 20, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Did you miss my point?

I think it it pointless to relate offense to a player’s position on the field.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year

by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just can't fathom that

You think Ryan Howard has the same value if he’s playing catcher but he’s in the same spot in the lineup?

That’s the whole point of the article — you combine offense and defense to get a total value.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jan 20, 2009 3:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You're not doing that. You're measuring both offense and defense. They are separate.

But since both can be measure in the same units (runs – either production or prevention), you can compare them directly. And you can say, given that the typical SS field 5 runs better than the average 3B, we would want the 3B would produce five more runs on offense if we’re paying them the same.

Being a SS doesn’t make you a better hitter, but it does make your offensive production more valuable, because it’s easier to find a good hitting 3B than a good hitting SS.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 21, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That makes very little sense.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

I hate Michael Young.

"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith

by thedirkatron on Jan 20, 2009 1:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year

by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Because a player

can bat anywhere in the order, depending on how he fits in with the other players, but he can’t play any position. And, even without taking batting order into consideration, it is certainly important to consider how valuable a player is based on his position. Good hitting catchers are quite rare, and if you have one, he is very valuable. 1B are obviously expected to hit well, but defense is maybe just as important as hitting for catchers and shortstops.

I just don’t see how this can be confusing. The average SS hits much less than the average 1B. You can afford to carry a weaker hitting 1B if the rest of your players hit well to a point, but when looking for a 1B, you’re looking for a hitter. When looking for a SS you can afford to carry a weak bat much more easily if their glove compensates because the rest of the league won’t be too far ahead of you with the bat.

In other words, you want to be wary of falling to far below the league average offense at any position unless you are adequately compensating for it elsewhere.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 20, 2009 2:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

I’ll back off my pointless statement. I understand that teams would like to have above average players at each position relative to their peers. But, nobody does. MY will probably be judge a below average 3B after 2009 against his peers. However, if he is a top 5 #2 hitter, does that peer judgement really reflect his value?

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year

by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2009 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lineups

are the whim of the manager. Where he hits does not necessarily tell you anything about how the Rangers position players compare to their opponents. But if you have a couple of middle infielders who excel compared to the league, that tells you more.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 20, 2009 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

MY would be the best #9 hitter, a top 10 #7 hitter, and a bottom of the barrel #4 hitter.

But is he any more or less valuable based on where his manager puts him in the lineup? No.

On defense, he’s a bottom five SS, a bottom half 3B, and an average to top 5 1B. It DOES matter where he plays, though.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 21, 2009 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, it would be GREAT.......

to have offensively ‘plus’ players at ALL positions, but thats not realistic…… I still believe we need to look at ‘the entire batting order’ in making this argument……sure we COULD move everyone around, Josh would be a plus hitter at SS and Marlon Byrd would be more valuable if he could catch, but who cares? We have to fit the players we have in the field, as well as the batting order and moving guys all over (into new positions) so we can stack up better vs. the stats at any given position is a moot point. It’s fine for hot stove arguments and in trade discussions (obviously switch hitting plus catchers are valuable), but I still believe it doesn’t matter, because every team will have +/- up & down their order.

by tklawless on Jan 20, 2009 5:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

'k, thanks

whatever the hell all that meant. You completely misunderstood my post and put words in my mouth, then vomited a bunch of shit that didn’t make sense, but I’ll go ahead and mark you down for the list of people who don’t understand positional value.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 20, 2009 11:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Think about it this way.

You have two teams that each have 8 batters who are exactly league average for their positions, offensively and defensively.

But each team has one player who hits .350/.450/.600, with league average defense.

An absolute beast. Since they’re both obviously their teams’ best hitter, they both hit 3rd in their respective lineups.

Now, one of those players is a SS and one is a 1b.

Which player is better and/or more valuable?

Compared by their batting order spot they’re equal.

But the guy who does it from the SS spot is clearly more valuable, because by him playing SS the “extra” guy on his team is a league average 1b, who’s providing better offense (by definition) than the extra guy on the other team, who’s a league average offensive SS.

Hopefully that makes sense.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

I hate Michael Young.

"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith

by thedirkatron on Jan 20, 2009 6:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That is a good

way to look at it.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 20, 2009 11:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately I think the people it was aimed at have long since left the thread :(

The 40 Trumps All!!!

I hate Michael Young.

"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith

by thedirkatron on Jan 20, 2009 11:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We can always bat him 9th

and then the comparison looks great :)

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Jan 20, 2009 1:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ahahaha

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 20, 2009 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Player don't get signed to hit in a certain spot in the order.

They do get signed because they can or can’t handle a defensive position.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 20, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree.....

Norm was saying we needed to move Kinsler to left, MY to second, (1 or 2 others moves) etc., etc. to make us ‘match up’ better with the ‘averages’…..because MY’s offense doesn’t stack up so well vs. other 3B……..but I agree with your assertion, because, if we have an (offensively) above avg. 2B, above avg. CF, etc….then that evens out a below avg. guy at another position, so basically we should be comparing ‘batting orders’ not position by position offensive stats……

by tklawless on Jan 20, 2009 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at 3B for Young

If Young is an average defensive 3B and he posts the same OBP as last year, he’ll need to raise his SLG up by about 30 points to be average at 3B. I think with Young’s finger problems behind him, he can post an OBP closer to his career average of around .350 (CHONE, Marcels, and Bill James have him right around there). If he does that, it looks like he’ll only need a SLG of around .415-.420 to be average there.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jan 20, 2009 11:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs