Community Projections vs. Reality - Pitchers

Well, when it got down to nut-cutting time, our projections didn't have a lot of relevance to the season that actually unfolded, for the most part because if we had wanted to have a representative projection for Rangers starters in 2008, we would have had to do projections for just about every pitcher on the 40 man roster.

Millwood, though in the best shape of his life from doing Tae-Bo with Billy Blank, only managed 168 innings, though word is that Nolan has him doing water aerobics with my grandmother this winter as part of the new conditioning program.  Our ace managed a ERA+ of only 87, which would be a career low except he did it last year, too. 

Millwood Wins Wins '''σ''' Inng's Inng's '''σ''' K's K's '''σ''' ERA ERA '''σ'''
Community 15 2 197 15 148 19 4.36 .37
Bill James
11 193 145 4.01
CHONE 184 128 4.99
ZIPS 12 189 135 4.52
2008 9 168.7 125 5.07

Padilla had some mystery issues last year, with neck pain, undefined soreness, family issues at home and his girlfriend putting a hex on his glove.  As I recall, one of Padilla's absences may have led to the incident which sent Aruban drunkard Sidney Ponson packing, although we may have gotten the better end of that deal seeing as how Ponson didn't exactly light the world on fire in New York.  Yeah, you hear that Sidney?  Matt Harrison cried on the mound, that's how innocent and sweet he is, you drunk lout!  Scooter Feldman does flower arrangements for hospice patients when he's not being asked to pitch every second day!  Anyway, Padilla had what counts as a servicable season in this rotation, while sporting a gaudy 4.74 ERA and not being involved in any incidents in which Mike Young's fingers were broken.

Padilla Wins Wins '''σ''' Inng's Inng's '''σ''' K's K's '''σ''' ERA ERA '''σ'''
Community 13 3 181 19 139 30 4.58 0.42
Bill James
6 120 82 4.5
CHONE 149 96 5.3
ZIPS 10 172 112 4.92
2008 14 171 127 4.74

McCarthy's body, I have it on good authority, objects to being a starting pitcher in The Show.  Bill James didn't know that last year, of course, when he projected 176 and 10 wins for him, but that's because Bill James is an android whose blinking and beeping mechanical heart knows nothing of the muscle, blood, sinew and masking tape that is Brandon McCarthy's arm.  Hey, in the 22 innings he pitched, he was every bit the pitcher as advertised, and if we'd had 52.5 more just like him, we'd probably have won the pennant.

McCarthy Wins Wins '''σ''' Inng's Inng's '''σ''' K's K's '''σ''' ERA ERA '''σ'''
Community 8 3 113 40 76 31 4.49 1.11
Bill James
10 176 142 4.30
CHONE 108 75 4.75
ZIPS 8 127 77 4.96
2008 1 22 10 4.09

As for Jason Jennings, I'm not sure there's much to say.  He sucked, but, mercifully, he sucked for a very short time.  He spared us to death in six starts in April, put up some comically bad numbers, and made way for younger talent.   Why it took six starts to send him to the glue factory, I don't know.

Jennings Wins Wins '''σ''' Inng's Inng's '''σ''' K's K's '''σ''' ERA ERA '''σ'''
Community 11 2 169 25 111 19 4.76 0.33
Bill James
7 150 97 5.04
CHONE 132 86 4.64
ZIPS 7 140 99 4.56
2008 0 27.1 12 8.56
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