FanPost

2008 Minor Leagues: Weighted Dominance Factor

Prospect Project has "created" a stat they call Dominance Factor

Originally the Metric was:

Dominance Factor (DF) = (Strikeout Percentage + Groundball Percentage – Walk Percentage) + ((Age-Level standard – actual age) *10)


However it has been changed recently to a "Weighted Dominance Factor" - the changes are:

[The] ground-ball percentage has been weighted to .72 (the percentage that a ground-ball turns into an out). In addition to this, the age-modifier will now be multiplied by 7 rather than 10, in an effort to more appropriately weight the advantages that age-related-to-level have on minor league starting pitching prospects

What these new modifications have done are slightly tweak the overall rankings giving a little more bonus to fly-ball heavy pitchers, and also shortened the range that a pitchers Dominance Factor falls into.

Also, RD% is raw dominance percentage (K% + GB% - BB%)

The link to the top 25 for AAA, AA, A+ and A is under the Weighted Dominance Factor link above, but I have included the following players below. Granted its not  perfect but its another interesting way to look at the pitchers and their progress last year...

I was glad to see so many rangers at the bottom of the A+ and A lists (always helps) and I think the Rangers may have had the most players on the list...

AAA                  
Player DF Age IP Org BB% K% GB% RD% AgeMod
1. Brett Cecil 75.5 22 30.2 TOR 11.9 23 69 60.8 14.7
2. Carlos Carrasco 73.6 21 36.7 PHI 8 28.2 47 54 19.6
3. Sean Gallagher 68.7 23 29 CHC 7.7 25.6 56 58.2 10.5
4. Jonathan Niese 65.8 22 39.2 NYM 8.4 19.2 53 49 16.8
5. Max Scherzer 65 24 53 ARI 10 36.1 53 64.3 0.7
7. Tommy Hunter 60.8 22 53 TEX 4.1 12.8 52 46.1 14.7
10. Homer Bailey 57.5 22 111.1 CIN 9.6 20 47 44.2 13.3
11. Michael Bowden 56.9 22 40 BOS 3.1 18 37 41.5 15.4
23. Eric Hurley 52 23 74.2 TEX 8.6 21.3 42 42.9 9.1
 
                   
AA                  
Player DF Age IP Org BB% K% GB% RD% AgeMod
1. Brett Anderson 78.9 20 31 OAK 7.2 30.4 57 64.2 14.7
2. Trevor Cahill 70.8 20 37 OAK 12.6 21.9 64 55.4 15.4
3. Clayton Kershaw 66.5 20 61.1 LAD 7.9 24.5 47 50.4 16.1
4. Brett Cecil 66.5 22 77.2 TOR 7.1 26.9 59 62.3 4.2
5. Jaime Garcia 66.1 22 35 STL 11 28.3 62 61.9 4.2
6. Derek Holland 63.2 22 26 TEX 6.4 30.9 46 57.6 5.6
7. Chris Tillman 61 20 135.2 BAL 11.2 26.6 40 44.2 16.8
8. Neftali Feliz 60 20 45.1 TEX 12.4 25.4 42 43.2 16.8
16. Michael Bowden 55 22 104.1 BOS 6 25.1 43 50.1 4.9
17. David Price 54.5 23 50 TB 6.6 20.7 59 56.6 -2.1
 
                   
A+                  
Player DF Age IP Org BB% K% GB% RD% AgeMod
1. Trevor Cahill 70.4 20 87.1 OAK 9 29.9 62 65.5 4.9
2. Brett Anderson 68.7 20 74 OAK 5.8 25.7 62 64.5 4.2
3. Jhoulys Chacin 66.4 20 66.1 COL 4.5 23.5 60 62.2 4.2
4. Rick Porcello 64.7 20 125 DET 6.3 13.7 65 54.2 10.5
5. Jeremy Hellickson 58.7 21 76.2 TB 1.7 28 47 60.1 -1.4
10. Derek Holland 55.6 22 31 TEX 4.4 32.5 45 60.5 -4.9
23. Omar Poveda 49.1 21 90.2 TEX 10.3 24.9 45 47 2.1
24. Kasey Kiker 48.6 21 121.1 TEX 7 21.1 44 45.8 2.8
 
                   
A                  
Player DF Age IP Org BB% K% GB% RD% AgeMod
1. Madison Bumgarner 64.8 19 134.2 SF 4 29.4 44 57.1 7.7
2. Edward Cegarra 62.1 19 54 KC 2.4 25 48 57.2 4.9
3. Jairo Heredia 61.6 19 102.1 NYY 9.5 21 57 52.5 9.1
4. Dae-Eun Rhee 60.8 19 40 CHC 9.9 20.5 62 55.2 5.6
5. Neftali Feliz 60.8 20 82 TEX 8.6 32.7 52 61.5 -0.7
13. Kennil Gomez 54.6 20 88 TEX 5.6 19.8 58 56 -1.4
20. Blake Beavan 51.2 19 121.1 TEX 4.2 15.2 50 47 4.2
25. Fabio Castillo 48 19 91.1 TEX 11.8 20.3 48 43.1 4.9
 
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