Rangers ZiPS projections
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 21, 2009 9:08 PM CST
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Did he normalize those offensive projections with the dead ball era or something? Aside from Cruz you would think we’re the Giants.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 21, 2009 9:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
OBP
For Salty and Davis too low.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Jan 21, 2009 9:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Davis, Kinsler, Murphy, Boggs.
Mainly what I think is that there are some that he has in the 40th-50th percentile and some in the 30th-40th or 45th, but, like, zero above the 50th. The group as a whole is a mix of average to low projections for a team that almost always has positive outliers.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 21, 2009 9:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Outliers
You’re always going to have some positive (and negative) outliers. All the projections are 50th percentile (roughly, it can vary a few points either way due to skewness of risk). Heck, compared to CHONE, ZiPS is actually optimistic with the hitters; the CHONE projection is equal to or worse than that of ZiPS for every hitter of significance with the exception of Murphy.
You get a bit of a selection bias towards positive outliers – players with negative outliers tend to lose their jobs unless their stars and the Rangers have had plenty of those players in recent years as well.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Jan 22, 2009 9:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
he’s basically calling for the entire team to regress
Regulars:
Kinsler 08/zips: .319 .375 .517 / .283 .354 .470 = -36 -21 -47
Blalock: .287 .338 .508 / .272 .335 .454 = -15 -3 – 54
Davis: .285 .331 .549 / .263 .309 .508 = -22 – 22 – 41
Hamilton: .304 .371 .530 / .293 .366 .526 = -11 – 5 – 4
Murphy: .275 .321 .465 / .263 .319 .419 = -12 – 2 – 46
Byrd: .298 .380 .462 / .279 .352 .430 = -19 -28 -32
Young: .284 .339 .402 / .292 .347 .420 = +8 +8 +18
by Brett Perryman on Jan 21, 2009 9:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think there will
be some regression by a few players. However, I don’t think the pitching will be as bad as predicted.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
by RangerMad on Jan 21, 2009 9:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
others:
Boggs: .226 .333 .399 / .217 .306 .374 = -9 -27 -25
Cruz: .330 .421 .609 / .282 .354 .531 = -48 -67 -78
Teagarden: .319 .396 .809 / .229 .314 .426 = -90 -82 -383
Saltalamacchia: .253 .352 .364 / .253 .330 .431 = 0 -22 +67
Cruz and Teagarden obviously will regress, and there may be some other regressions. But come on, the entire team? If he’s right, you’d better knock off a lot of wins from your semi-optimistic projection. This team would be a doormat.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 21, 2009 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Would be absolutely horrible
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Jan 21, 2009 9:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think playing time/player changes will make the difference
Especially at third and 1st. Plus 2nd I guess since Kinsler was out for a while. Some positions will drop, some will rise and some will stay the same. This is a very unscientific guess, but because the Rangers O was so good last year, you’re forced to predict a bit of a drop.
I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun.
by WyoRanger on Jan 21, 2009 10:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Blalock's numbers are waaaaay low.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 10:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ZIPS Projections
May tend to rate players low. I wonder about the quintiles. To me, that’s overparsing, or further complicating the projection categories. I can see top third, middle third, and lower third but not fifths. Is the narrowing of “what’s excellent” a reason for this over-fine subdivision?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Jan 21, 2009 11:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
JasonBotts?
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
Jindal - 2012
The Wrestler
by Longhorn on Jan 21, 2009 9:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That's what I was thinking
Botts?
"Come on man you have to admit the average guy in a baseball clubhouse...... is relatively a douchebag." BGL.
by sprite on Jan 21, 2009 9:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also has Wright.
"Come on man you have to admit the average guy in a baseball clubhouse...... is relatively a douchebag." BGL.
by sprite on Jan 21, 2009 9:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Botts, Gold,....
Kinda hard to put any stock in a projection that doesn’t seem to know who is even in the organization.
by Oddibee on Jan 21, 2009 9:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gold is one thing
Jason Botts though hasn’t been a part of this organization for like 9 months now. This isn’t some little offseason move or anything.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 21, 2009 11:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I click on this thread...
and it’s almost empty. Come on, Check it out, Discuss people!!!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Jan 21, 2009 9:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
projections
are a waste of time, and gay.
The only thing that is a bigger time waste then compiling projections is discussing their merits on a blog.
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 9:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Because he's the worst poster here I think.
Give me Sheets or give me Offseason Blues Part III.
by Chase Irwin on Jan 21, 2009 10:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ding ding ding
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
by ab03 on Jan 22, 2009 12:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
why
do you think that?
My belief that the Rangers are going to suck this year is based on their “projections”,
and projections are fun.
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 22, 2009 7:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's a bigger waste of time
to bitch about the compling of projections and bitching about the discussing of their merits.
I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun.
by WyoRanger on Jan 21, 2009 10:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
takes less time though...
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
by Jayslick on Jan 22, 2009 2:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Range
I assume fr = fair, av = average, vg = very good?
I sure thought Kinsler’s range was better than “fair”… as in, led all 2B in range factor?
by Oddibee on Jan 21, 2009 9:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think range might be an evaluation of total defense.
by philkid3 on Jan 21, 2009 10:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure
He does those to mirror DMB I think, and for DMB range is only the range component while there is also an error percentile. I could be wrong about the fact that he mirrors DMB style of ratings, though. I just know that zips are often used as winter projections in the program before the DMB projections come out in March.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 22, 2009 7:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Funny fact here.
Range factor does not measure range.
It’s a horrible stat with almost no use.
R
by Requiem on Jan 22, 2009 2:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
1 starter with a projected ERA under 5
Awwww yeah.
by LiamP on Jan 21, 2009 9:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Rangers finish
a distant 3rd in the division.
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 9:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm starting to think we may
be in the AL West basement.
So do these guys…
http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/extremely_early_projected_standings
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 10:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you ever say anything positive?
Miami bound...
by boomer1 on Jan 21, 2009 10:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
boomer,
I liked Hurley and had him down for 150 IPs with an ERA hovering around 5 with a Millwoodian 10-13 record. I thought his inclusion (and the exclusions of Feldman/Nippert) in the rotation could hack away at the 967 run total.
With the offense taking a pretty good hit, today’s news makes me consider the fact that we may privy to a win total below 70.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 10:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
x
today’s news makes me consider the fact that we may privy to a win total below 70.
Without looking…
Tell me the last time the Rangers had a win total below 70.
I know, because I looked it up recently.
But I’m curious if you know.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 21, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
1985 (62-99)
Oddibe & Bobby V’s debut (Rader canned after 9-23 start). Oddibe called up the same day I believe that BV was hired and took the line-up card to home plate, the old Comiskey in Chi, I believe.
Lots of Glenn Brummer, Alan Bannister and shit like that all year long.
Of course, you wouldn’t be referencing the strike year, would you?
52-62
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 10:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I meant in a full season
Even with the awful early 21st century teams, Texas won at least 70 games.
Claiming that this is a sub-70-win team is a hyperbolic.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 21, 2009 10:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
*meant to say that Bobby V let Oddibe
take the line-up card up to home plate.
Checked it out, Oddibe’s first game that he got into was that Sunday in Chicago (May 19) when the Rangers were 10-24.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 10:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And fwiw...
If the Rangers allow the exact same number of runs as they did last year, and score only 850 runs (51 fewer than last year), they are still on a 71 win pace.
There were 5 teams in all of baseball who won less than 70 games last year. You are being histrionic.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 21, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
make sure
you hang that banner……..
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 10:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What banner?
the “hey, we consistently win more than 70 games” banner.
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 10:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
One of the best episodes, by far.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 22, 2009 5:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hyperbolic and histrionic? which one or both?
The Ranger Pyhagorean win total last year was 76.
Bradley is gone and the left side of the infield is not going to be nearly as productive.
Hurley, who I thought was going to contribute is also gone. No other improvements have been acquired and bully was overworked last year.
I do agree that you have to be a really shitty team to win less than 70 games and while we may not be there just yet, we’re on the front porch and knocking on the door.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 10:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"bully?" haha
The Show, This Thing, The Great Game, and The Bully.
Living is hard.
Give me Sheets or give me Offseason Blues Part III.
by Chase Irwin on Jan 21, 2009 10:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
over/under win total in '09: 75
under.
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Too early to defintively say
at this moment but currently constructed, this team could really suck it.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 10:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we improve
I’m not sure how much if anything in the win column, but you can’t discount the defensive improvement up the middle. I think we will get more production from Davis and Cruz, not to mention there are quality prospects that I think will make positive impact.
Next Year! We Swear!
by NothinG on Jan 21, 2009 10:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I've struggled on what to project for Cruz but
I think if you look at his career totals, the answer is right there in front of us.
His career line in 604 plate appearances is
22/82 with .251/.312/.431
That’s what I’m guessing he does in 09 (which is significantly below ZIPS).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 11:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And also...
losing Eric Hurley makes us a sub 70 win team.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
by benmor78 on Jan 21, 2009 11:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Then you obviously
Think cruz didn’t figure anything out with his approach at the plate. Last year was a fluke.
I think you are one of the most pessimistic people I’ve had contact with. Are you really a ranger fan.
Next Year! We Swear!
by NothinG on Jan 21, 2009 11:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If I'm not a huge Ranger fan
than why in the fuck do I know that Bobby V let Oddibe take the line-up card to home plate in his first day in the bigs back in 1985?
Ask me about another year from ’74 to now and I can drop some Ranger minutae on you in seconds.
I would venture that I am one of the biggest Ranger fans out there and desperately want them to win.
I’m just not one of these baseball fans who sits in the pumpkin patch equivalent like Linus telling everybody a bunch of bullshit about how cool things are going to be when The Great Pumpkin arrives.
When it is time to be optimistic (like it was in 2004), I’ll let you know.
This off-season isn’t one of those times to be optimistic, at least for this upcoming season.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 11:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sheets down people sheets down.
Everything is going to be sheets fine. Get a glass of milk and dip in some sheet cookies.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
by iorange555 on Jan 21, 2009 11:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHEN I CAN BE OPTIMISTIC
by brettgardner on Jan 21, 2009 11:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You?
When you’re six feet under.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 11:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's pretty cold
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 21, 2009 11:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yikes.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
by iorange555 on Jan 21, 2009 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"Come on man you have to admit the average guy in a baseball clubhouse...... is relatively a douchebag." BGL.
by sprite on Jan 21, 2009 11:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ouch.
I’m burning from that one! Hey, Josey, if you’re not too busy dismantling me, can you please tell me more about Bobby V letting Oddibe take the line-up card to home plate in his first day in the bigs back in 1985?
That story’s too good to only hear once.
by brettgardner on Jan 21, 2009 11:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sigh ... and cackle.
Give me Sheets or give me Offseason Blues Part III.
by Chase Irwin on Jan 22, 2009 1:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
those rankings have every AL West team
with a record below .500. I wouldn’t hold much stock in it.
Next Year! We Swear!
by NothinG on Jan 21, 2009 10:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a bet for JW
If the Rangers have only won 38 or fewer games by the ASB (that should be a 70 game pace) I’ll rec every single one of his posts for the rest of the season. If I wins he’s limited to one comment per post for the rest of the season (no fanposts either).
Deal?
I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun.
by WyoRanger on Jan 21, 2009 11:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
WyoRanger
No deal.
There’s a lot more that can happen between now and Opening Day (I’ll have a prediction by then) but this team doesn’t look very good right now.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 11:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Will you take the bet
the day before opening day then?
by Michael Cave on Jan 21, 2009 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No internet bets for me, Cave.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 21, 2009 11:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Puss.
I thought you were the best/most accurate poster here.
by brettgardner on Jan 21, 2009 11:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You've got to be sheeting me.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
by iorange555 on Jan 21, 2009 11:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If the Angels end the season
80-82 as that system projects, then the Rangers have a legitimate shot to win this division. That system has pretty much all the AL West teams bunched together, just under .500.
by Stephen Rushin on Jan 21, 2009 11:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am going to go
out on a limb and say that ZIPS doesn’t like any of the Rangers pitchers.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
by RangerMad on Jan 21, 2009 9:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
actually
they were quite high on Hurley……
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 9:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why is ZIPS able
to be up to date by having palyers such as Daigle, Torres and Turnbow listed but still have Wright, Botts and Roberts?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
by RangerMad on Jan 21, 2009 9:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Just a guess
because he’s projecting every player for 30 teams and he gets some minor transactions and missed others? How would you do accurately listing every player on every team?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jan 21, 2009 11:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
With a Botts, maybe he just wants to give him a projection since there exists a possibility that he could come back. And in that case, the Rangers are the team he’d put him on since they sold his rights.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 22, 2009 7:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Botts
Actually, Botts was just a mistake. I forgot that he was sold, not DFAed.
Yes, there are other players not signed listed in the projection, mainly because this was their most recent team. Ryan Roberts did sign with the Diamondbacks (as I found out later), but I always err on the side of more information. These aren’t roster projections, after all.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Jan 22, 2009 9:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Are we playing our home games
at PetCo this year?
by scoop16 on Jan 21, 2009 9:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The hitters
are hitting at PetCo but the pitchers are evidently staying here.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jan 21, 2009 11:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OT: in case anyone
thought Devin Harris was actually any good against the top PG’s in the West
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 9:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
ouch
I guess Paul is still the guy.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 21, 2009 9:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Paul has always been the guy.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Jan 21, 2009 10:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Harris
also left the game with a rib injury…….
some things never change.
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 10:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no shame in having Paul do that to you
Paul does taht to everyone. I’d be more interested to see what Harris does against the likes of Parker and Nash.
In reference to how good the Steelers have been in their history: "No one is even close to them."- Steal Home
by hinduplaya on Jan 21, 2009 10:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank goodness we got rid of him and his contract...
…even if it took giving up 2 first rounders to do it.*
- This is sarcasm. Do not respond with flames about how stupid I am for thinking getting rid of Devin Harris was a good thing.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 21, 2009 10:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I never heard this bit before..
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Jan 21, 2009 10:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm more excited about the unknown and rebuilding
Than a future with Devin Harris as our PG
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Jan 21, 2009 10:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I hate having top 5 draft picks locked up long term
for reasonable amounts of money.
by MeanMr.Mustard on Jan 21, 2009 10:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So you like Tyrus Thomas?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Jan 21, 2009 10:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They're comparable.
I figured it went without saying that he’s, um, really good, and top 10 in the NBA in scoring, but I guess I was wrong.
by MeanMr.Mustard on Jan 21, 2009 10:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just didn't understand the relevance of draft position...
He’s a nice player. He also just got done playing the best basketball he’s ever played in his life.. so let’s see if he can sustain it. The only thing I’m gonna miss is next year’s draft pick.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Jan 21, 2009 10:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough
I was just using draft pick as an easy measure of perceived worth. Obviously, not all top 5 picks play like it.
by MeanMr.Mustard on Jan 21, 2009 10:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
do you hate
point guards who can’t defend, can’t shoot, have a 2-1 asst/to ratio, and are injury prone?
It was a bad trade, but not because Devin Harris is good. Lottery protect that ‘10 pick and I think its a fine trade. Of course they didn’t, and now we can’t completely tear it down without giving NJ a lottery pick on 2010.
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
by red shoe ranger on Jan 21, 2009 10:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It was a bad trade because we gave up ANY picks.
You want to take a chance on Kidd? Fine, but it shouldn’t cost you a young starting PG with potential AND draft picks. NJ should’ve been happy to unload Kidd without Cuban needing to sweeten the deal.
by MeanMr.Mustard on Jan 21, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was wrong
Devin wins….
"You’re the worst poster here I think."--- brettgardner
"Because he's the worst poster here I think."--Chase Irwin
by red shoe ranger on Jan 22, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That line
Looks remarkably like Kidd’s last showing against NO.
Purgatory's kind of like the in-betweeny one. You weren't really shit, but you weren't all that great either. Like Tottenham.
by TheJeezus on Jan 22, 2009 9:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lol.
The guy says we didn’t sign ben sheets, what a loser. I think we all know we did sign ben sheets.
Some people these days are just stupid.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
by iorange555 on Jan 21, 2009 10:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I found something strange.
The strikeout and walk totals are a bit off for the young guys. Hunter, Holland, Feliz, and Moscoso should all project to have better command than what these projections show – meaning higher strikeouts and lower walks.
Feliz’s walk rate doubled when he got to Frisco, so maybe his aren’t that ridiculous, but his K rate, along with Holland’s and Moscoso’s seems pretty low.
It almost looks like they’re being projected based on what other Rangers pitchers have done instead of what their minor league careers have shown.
by NoNameOnCard on Jan 22, 2009 1:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Strikeout/Walk totals
The reason is that strikeout and walk rates take gigantic hits when moving from the minors and with only Hunter playing even the majority of a season above A-ball, you’re going to find the group having big K/W drops in projecting what they would do with the Rangers this year.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Jan 22, 2009 9:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So, a year from now,
I presume, when guys like Feliz and Holland have more upper minors time, and maybe some major league time as well, those rates wouldn’t be so far apart.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jan 22, 2009 10:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well gee whiz ...
I guess we would be better off if we found something else to do this Spring and Summer besides follow the Rangers. Since the hitters are all going to get worse and the pitching staff is forever stamped with sucktitude. It’s funny how you hear nothing but respect for us from division foes, yet everyone that makes projections seems to think that no matter what the Rangers do, their players are always going to underperform and therefore they will always suck.
by Athos on Jan 22, 2009 8:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Computer projections
I haven’t yet been able to program respect into a complex computer algorithm, so I’m not sure that this is the case.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Jan 22, 2009 9:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you really think
they will be competitive this year? After losing Bradley and not picking much up on the positive side of the ledger?
Get off my lawn.
by DJCahill on Jan 22, 2009 9:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, there are a couple of ways to look at it.
If you think that last year’s pitching was the “norm” then, no, they aren’t going to compete. If, on the other hand, you look at last year from the standpoint that everything that could have gone wrong with the pitching DID go wrong, you would have to expect some improvement from the staff. As to the hitting, you’ll have a full year of Chris Davis and hopefully some additional production from the catcher position. The fall off at DH from from Board Game to Blalock should not outweigh the increase of Davis over the Botts/Shelton/Broussard trio.
I don’t see this team winning 90 games, but I don’t really see them only winning 65 or 70 either.
by Athos on Jan 22, 2009 9:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Except the real fall off at hitting
since MY moved to 3B and Blalock to DH, and Vizquel/Andrus at SS is Vizquel/Andrus for BoardGame, and Davis instead of Botts/Shelton Broussard/Davis. Since Broussard/Shelton/Botts was ~200ABs, getting rid of them isn’t a big factor.
I’d be very surprised if this offense didn’t lose close to half a run a game over last years offense, because going from BoardGame to Vizquel/Andrus is a pretty large kick in the nuts.
I’d be surprised if the team isn’t somewhere around last year’s record or maybe even worse.
Get off my lawn.
by DJCahill on Jan 22, 2009 10:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Half a run per game means
820 runs scored, which is the ballpark number of runs I’m starting to believe the Rangers will score.
They’ve never been below 800 runs scored in a non-strike year so that’s not likely to happen in 2009.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2009 10:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
heh
learned a little something from the last time you predicted under 800 runs?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
When have I ever predicted the Rangers would score
less than 800 runs in a full season?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This makes it sound like you don't think it is likely
http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/1/15/725449/more-from-michael-young#11513757
I hope like hell this thing can score more than 800 runs in 2009.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 22, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Heh
I can’t wait to see him revise this!
Give me Sheets or give me Offseason Blues Part III.
by Chase Irwin on Jan 22, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
When there is a word like "hope"
in a sentence, it hardly sounds definitive.
I think this offense is going to take a pretty good hit this year and upon further review, given how they’ve never scored fewer than 800 runs in Arlington (in a full season for you twerps that go thru my posts with a fine comb), I doubt they score fewer than 800 runs in 2009.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2009 12:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The called on the field is overturned.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
by tyd3311 on Jan 22, 2009 1:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
heh
my fine tooth comb was the search of “800” by “Josey Wales”
I am a fine detective, I’ll tell you that.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 22, 2009 1:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Keep digging, Watson.
Give me Sheets or give me Offseason Blues Part III.
by Chase Irwin on Jan 22, 2009 1:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's how I look at it
Arias, Broussard, Shelton, and Botts got 372 PAs last year. Instead of those 3, we are getting a full season of Kinsler (unless he has another fluke injury) and a full season of Davis. An extra 120+ PAs for Kinsler and an extra 250+ PAs for Davis is pretty valuable. Losing Bradley is going to hurt, but his 500 PAs can be replaced in the lineup with Blalock in the lineup without taking too huge of a hit in production. And then look at the catching situation. Between Teagarden, Salty, and MaxRam, I don’t think the Rangers are going to stick with a 90 OPS+ from one of them as the main starter. If they under-produce, they’ll be replaced.
And add into this, a healthy Young who should be a league average bat, and an OF of Murpy, Byrd, Hamilton, and Cruz (I think Hamilton improves and Cruz is awesome) and you’ll have an offense about as good as it was last year’s.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2009 12:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
x
Losing Bradley is going to hurt, but his 500 PAs can be replaced in the lineup with Blalock in the lineup without taking too huge of a hit in production.
Really? No one on this team, besides Hamilton, will come close to Bradley’s ‘08 numbers. Also, the ’09 Rangers will likely have 700PAs between Andrus and Vizquel – that’s going to negatively effect runs scored. I think it’s a safe bet to predict that the Rangers will score somewhere between 825 and 875 runs in ’09.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Jan 22, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't guarantee this happening, but
Blalock could stay much healthier DHing each day and if he puts up numbers like he has these past 2 years, I think you’ll see an OPS+ in the upper 120s, lower 130s. Given his everyday playing time instead of 500 PAs over 117 starts, I think you won’t be losing too many runs over the season. I think its still a loss in the end, but its not one that greatly outweighs the other gains: Cruz and Davis a full season, the catching improving, Hamilton improving, Young playing without broken fingers.
And with Vizquel and Andrus hitting in the bottom of the lineup, the only way they are reaching 700 PAs is if the team matches last year’s 900 runs (or has some pretty terrible luck w/runners on). The number 7, 8, and 9 hitters last year got 683, 663, and 643 respectively, and that is for the full season. Its almost a guarantee Andrus and Vizquel won’t combine to give 162 games.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2009 8:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not counting
on much more than, if even, 500 PAs from Blalock. Also, Blalock was mediocre last year until the last ten games – just not sure what to expect from him in ’09. Also, Cruz is a huge wildcard. If Andrus starts the season in the majors, Vizquel will be the utility guy who will play some SS, 2B, and the occasional 3B. So, 700 PAs combined might not be unrealistic.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Jan 22, 2009 8:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If Cruz doesn't perform
We have other OFs ready to step up and take his everyday playing time.
Vizquel as a utility guy is likely to end up spelling Andrus most of the time. And come September, Vizquel likely never sees another AB unless we are contending for the playoffs.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 23, 2009 12:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A full year of...
Davis and Blalock (if healthy and not traded) will go a long way to replacing Bradley’s portion of the offense.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Jan 22, 2009 8:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
they're good players,
but not Bradley of ‘08. I’m just saying that it’s extremely unlikely the Rangers will score 900 runs again, not that their offense will suck.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Jan 22, 2009 8:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Davis could end up being worth more than Bradley was last year
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 23, 2009 12:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it
his OBP won’t be anywhere near Bradley’s .436, and Bradley also slugged .563. Davis might get near that slugging mark, but he is not likely to bat .321 and he’s not going to walk in 15.7% of his PA’s.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jan 23, 2009 12:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Consider the everyday playing time though
At the end of the day, I think Davis could very well be worth more runs than Bradley was last year.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 23, 2009 9:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps
is he adjusts to pitchers and hits very well while playing good defense and plays about 150 games. The stat lines won’t look as good (I’m expecting something about .270/.330/.560) but he’ll be valuable. What was Bradley’s contract with Chi? 3 years? I think it’s nearly a slam dunk that over that time period Davis will have more value.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jan 23, 2009 10:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
D.Szymborski, Thanks for stopping by.
If the Rangers scored 901 runs last year, what would your ballpark estimate be for them in 2009 given that Bradley won’t be here and the left side of the infield won’t be nearly as productive?
Also, what would your ballpark estimate be for runs allowed in 2009?
I’m prepared for the worst and hoping for the best – Gracias.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2009 9:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Rough guess
I’d guess about 850 for the runs and they can probably get the runs allowed down to 900-925, so something in the 75-80 wins range again with chances of breaking .500 depending on whether or not Feliz and Holland continue developing and force their way onto the team this summer.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Jan 22, 2009 9:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Brandon McCarthy Projection
That seems to indicate a fail, no?
Looking at this whole scenario, I think they better sign Sheets and Jennings to a NRI.
However, given the Yankees and Mets may be interested in Sheets, it will cost. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sheets goes back to Milwaukee and takes the arbitration.
If the Rangers don’t sign Sheets, it’s all about Hicks not JD.
by SanDiegoKev on Jan 22, 2009 12:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Jennings?
Grief. This staff already screams replacement level.
Give me Sheets or give me Offseason Blues Part III.
by Chase Irwin on Jan 22, 2009 12:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We need lots of starters for the inevitable DL fall-out
I agree, he’s not that good anymore, but generally, many of our starters seem to end up on the DL for some periods of time, he would just give the Rangers some Cannon Fodder for depth. He would be in reserve for those periods of time. Kind of like the Rangers used John Wasdin.
Actually, Sheets refused arbitration, that was a goof.
by SanDiegoKev on Jan 23, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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