More on Sheets
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 24, 2009 10:24 AM CST
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PrintMore Sheets stuff from this morning...
Buster Olney talks about Sheets at length. His conclusion:
In 2008, Sheets made 31 starts, threw 198 1/3 innings, posted an ERA of 3.09 while pitching in Milwaukee's bandbox, held opposing hitters to a .390 slugging percentage, started for the National League in the All-Star Game, struck out 158 while walking just 47 -- and in an industry that provided a $48 million deal for an innings-eater like Silva just 13 months ago, he might be looking for a deal less than half of that.
There will be days of regret for some teams in 2009, borne out of the low-cost winter market, days when club executives will look back at the low-dollar deals being made now and wonder: Why didn't we do that? There will be teams that will be trading prospects for starting pitchers to fill holes in their rotation.
If Sheets stays healthy, then he is probably going to be a high-impact pitcher for a salary much less than that of his peers -- Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, CC Sabathia, among others -- and there will be contenders left to wonder if they made a mistake in not snagging Sheets.
It looks like he's going to be a great bargain for somebody.
This is reminiscent of the 2003-04 offseason, when injury concerns and a generally depressed spending climate resulted in the Angels getting Vlad Guerrero for much less than was anticipated, in what is probably one of the best free agent signings of the last 20 years.
Mike Hindman looks at Sheets' injury history, and concludes it isn't as bad as you'd think.
Richard Durrett has some additional thoughts on the Sheets situation.
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Comments
Sheesh
This is such a no brainer to me to make a bid…for any team, much less the Rangers. I have a hard time understanding why we reportedly have yet to even make an offer.
the brewers
Are they in cut-cost mode because after losing Sabathia and with Sheets price what it is, why are we not hearing more about them making an aggressive push? Was Maddux the only one who liked Sheets over there? Have they a clearer picture on his health status?
That's a real possibility.
I still think it’s worth the risk. He’s a special pitcher…
by FuturePants on Jan 24, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
I think they just want to move on
If they can get him on a 1 year deal, they’d do it, but I don’t think they are interested in him for multiple years or even the contract that the Rangers might offer.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
that is what is puzzling
they have to understand that pitchers of Sheets quality (when healthy) don’t grow on trees, and its just risk/reward on whether he can stay healthy.
Are the Brewers so cash strapped they can’t take the risk the Rangers can? Or do they think he is a higher risk than the Rangers do?
If the answer to the second question is yes, then that worries me, because the Brew Crew know him well and our track record with assessing certain fragile pitcher’s ability to stay healthy is not good.
But if he can be had for the reported price, the deal needs to get done. My questions are probably more pertinent if and when we sign him.
My POV:
The Brewers felt they would be priced out of resigning Sheets, and stayed on the sidelines. Now that his apparent price has dropped, they may want to get back in the mix. However, at this point, Sheets feels stiffed by them, that they didn’t really want him until his price fell. Sour grapes type thing.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
That's a fair theory
I also think the issue of draft pick compensation could be factoring into this equation. The Brewers were counting on getting a first rounder for C.C., and then the Yankees screwed them by signing Tex, too. So maybe now the Brewers value a first-round comp pick they could get for Sheets more than they value having Sheets on a short-term deal, like the 2/18 we’ve heard about.
Of course, if that’s the case, then it becomes a bit of a game of chicken: if the Mets sign Sheets, Melvin gets his first rounder and the oncoming car swerves at the last minute. But if the Rangers sign him, then Melvin gets only a second rounder for Sheets, gets hit by the car, and this offseason turns into an unmitigated disaster for the Brewers.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
They wouldn't get a first from the Mets, either.
K-Rod is a higher rated guy. Sheets is a 79 to K-Rod’s 87)
They’d still get two supps and two seconds if he signs either here or with the NYM.
Not a bad haul, though of course they’d’ve rather snaked two firsts and two supps instead of what they’ll end up getting.
What they’re going through just serves to remind how freaking lucky we were when Carlos Lee and GMJ each went to teams with unprotected firsts and neither of those teams signed a higher ranked dude.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 24, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions
Crap, I forgot about K-Rod
That shoots my “playing chicken hoping for the Mets” theory all to pieces.
You bring up a great point about Lee and GMJ. Maybe that was the Lord smiling down upon Rangers fandom and giving us an early sign that he would lift our curse and bring us to the Promised Land in, say, 2010 and beyond.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
low ball
I don’t think it would be wise in trying to low ball him. That my only create animosity between Sheets and the Rangers. Give him a fair offer so that he may be open to an extension in 2010.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
I think...
…this is less a case of the Rangers trying to low ball him as to just see what kind of a contract can fall to them, $ wise. IIRC, months ago, we were saying 2 years, $18 million would be a fine offer for the Rangers to make but most believed it would be way less than what he would go for. After the Mets balked at that amount, it seems a little more likely that such an offer could actually land the guy.
by FuturePants on Jan 24, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
So far from the q&a of jd and wash
I have learned tom hicks paid for the meal on Wednesday and gabbard is moving to the pen to join cj as our two lefty’s
Is Wash still wearing
those haggard spectacles?
Dead heads and frog legs, mmmmmmm cake mix - Bushwick Bill
I think the weirdest thing he wears during games is that watch.
Seems so out of place with a baseball uniform, but he always wears it.
by FuturePants on Jan 24, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
Wash could look much
sharper if he’d embrace his baldness and shave his head.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 24, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions
The only way Wash is ever going to look sharper
Is to go stand on the 3B line again.
That Gold Glove for Young was the worst thing that could have happened to Texas - now the guy really believes he's good at short. - Keith Law
I can't let myself believe that this will happen. Stop trying to make me believe, AJM. You suck for trying to make me believe.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
I don't know what that it is, but it creeps me out.
Is he an orphan?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 24, 2009 11:24 AM CST up reply actions
Milton Davis Jr.
Angels in the outfield.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Indeed an orphan.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
No wonder I had such an urge to punt my monitor when the pic came up.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 24, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions
How much longer, I'm getting dizzy!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Kindof sad for the Brewers
if we sign Sheets, but even worse if the Yanks sign Sheets.
The Brewers would have had two Type A FA starters that are aces, and instead of getting two 1st round picks, they could end up with 2 2nd rounders or possibly a 2nd and a 4th. That’s sad. Did they lose a pick for signing Hoffman as well?
Next Year! We Swear!
this is one of the problems with the current system
i bet the yankees sign at least one more type A
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 24, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions
If the Rangers don't get Sheets
I think I would like to see him go to the Yankees just to hear what Melvin has to say about it.
Hoffman wasn’t offered arbitration so the Brewers didn’t have to give up a pick to get him. It also makes it worse that the Rangers didn’t try to bring him here.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Sheets is a heckuva pitcher (when healthy)
37 of his last 55 starts (67%) with Game Scores of 50+.
I think the stat is that the Rangers win 72% of all games where their starter has a Game Score of 50+.
Plug him into the rotation instead of Feldman Nippert and if he goes to the bump 30X’s, I might discuss the possibility of this team finishing above .500 in 2009.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 24, 2009 11:37 AM CST up reply actions
I don't know
what to do with that comment. That almost sounded like an optmistic message. You tried hard to throw some poop on the fire at the end, but I think you could be comin around. YOU LOVE JD!!!!!!!!
You know, you may have to soften your stance JD if this works out
First you said that you’d be on board with moving Young to 3b if we signed Vizquel, and JD went out and signed Vizquel. Now you’re on board with a Sheets signing.
How interesting.
I'll soften my stance on JD
when he definitively shows that he knows what the hell he is doing when it comes to constructing a club at the major league level that can win more than 90+ games more than once.
Hiring and then extending Ron Washington is every bit as bad as thinking that a 40 year old CF was going to help the 2007 Rangers win.
He made a nice trade for Ramirez to help beef up the BP & BA rankings but that move did not help the 2007 Rangers win.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
That 90+ win season is coming quicker than you think
With all those trades for kids and great drafting. All hail JD!
Sheets or bust
You mean our kids are so special
they aren’t going to struggle in their first couple of years in The Show?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Some struggled last year
And some will struggle this year. The point being JD has done a great job with the farm and at some point it will produce. It started to produce last year and will continue. Weak farm system = weak MLB team(unless you spend like the Yanks). Strong farm system = very good MLB team.
Instead of over using “The Show” maybe you could use “Getting a cup of coffee”
Any way have a good day Debbie Downer. Good thing you don’t live in Seattle with the weather there you would kill yourself being so negative all the time.
Sheets or bust
And there it is
Only you could take a discussion about this offseason and make it about us not winning many games in 2007.
I’d ask you what your problem is with Kenny Lofton (who turned out to be a great signing for both his production and his trade value), but I don’t really care what you think. It’s much more fun to sit back and watch you be wrong.
Seriously, does it bother you that JD did what you wanted him to do? Are you having a crisis of faith?
When did JD do what I wanted him to do?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Moved Young to 3b, Signed Vizquel, and Improved the Defense
Remember the discussion we had?
If I said that I don’t have a problem with Young moving to 3B isn’t it implied that I’m okay with a stopgap?
And:
As long as JD brings in somebody that is clearly
better than Michael Young and the overall defense improves, why would I complain?
* * *
If the defense is truly fixed or much better in 2009, that’s a step in the right direction.
I believe this is a ploy to get out from under Young’s contract. By making it public (opinions are mixed on who made it public) that Young wouldn’t be a team player and adhere to management’s request to move, it softens the blow if a fan favorite is traded.
I’d buy it if they signed Vizquel / Cabrera for a year and they weren’t in absolute desperation to clear some payroll to fix their pitching staff.
Life’s hard, isn’t it.
I still believe they originally wanted to trade
Young if they could (why did we hear from Rosenthal that JD was actively trying to deal him?) but this is a step in the right direction.
I do think we are going to be gnashing our teeth watching Andrus try to play in The Show this year because he’s simply not ready. Jules Borbon would have a much better chance at success in the bigs than Andrus.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Whether Borbon is more or less ready than Andrus might have some relevance if they played the same position or would be competing against each other for a spot in the lineup, but since one plays CF and the other plays SS, what does that even matter?
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
Heh
I still believe they originally wanted to trade Young if they could
Of course you do, because you’re stubborn. That horse has been beaten already, and I have no idea how you can still believe that JD moved Young to 3b in an effort to trade him. I’m not having that argument with you because, if you don’t get it now, you never will.
Now that would be an intersting curve to plot
Team wins or winning pct. vs. starting pitching Game score
That or
Game score Wins vs. Rangers run scored
If you could find the level at which the team GS win % vs, runs per game exceeds 55% you would be able to figure a decent predictor for a approximate 90 win season.
Have you been able to find an database of game scores yet? or better yet an average game score per start? That could be an interesting data set to play with
B-Ref has that type of info
If you go to a pitcher’s game logs, you can see individual game scores as well as what I believe is an average game score if you select multiple games.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
laxtonto, really good post
from somebody named Billy Costigan Jr. over at NMLR that talks about Game Scores of 50+ and how the Rangers did in those games (47-20) in 2008.
http://forum.newbergreport.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4972&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=120
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Oh gee whiz pops,
that’s not transparent, at all. I mean, who is this great Billy Costigan Jr. you speak of?
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Worry about the baseball content, Rodney.
laxtonto had a question and I had an answer.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Why didnt you
say “I posted this under BCJ at newberg”?
"But with Tom Hicks squeezing his checkbook tighter than Tony Romo's grip on Jessica Simpson"- Jim Reeves on why Cruz will be the clean-up hitter in '09
Again,
laxtonto had a question and I had an answer.
Why are you worried about anything else?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
actaully no you didn't have an answer...
That has nothing to do with the question I asked.
Has anyone done a matrix, or graph, of Game score vs. runs scored? If you do that you can use it to determine the arbitrary point in which the Teas team would have to reach in GS per game to sustain a specific winning percentage. If you can determine the average GS per start required to win 55% of your games with an offense that generates “X” runs per game, you could use historical game score averages to build a predictive model. The only problem is that it would be difficult to adjust for park, luck etc..
Can GS win pct% be influenced by runs per game? If so then you idea that a 50 game score as a need point for a win would be incorrect, instead just another baseless assumption.
If runs per game has no correlation with GS for a win then yes, you would be correct, but all of the empirical evidence points to otherwise.
Game Score of 50+ from your starter does nothing more
than enhance your chances of winning.
I believe the Rangers were 45-17 (.725) in 2007 and they were 47-20 (.700) last year.
When they didn’t get a Game Score of 50+ their record the last two years was 30-70 (.300) and 34-63 (.350),
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 25, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions
Thats still not the point
if you derive a matrix of all game scores vs. the team average runs per game and determine at what average GS as a staff to relate a specific winning pct for this park. The only problem is that there is no way to compare pitcher form other parks or other leagues.
The problem with GS is it still is an arbitrary stat can’t be adjust for park or environment. It might be an interesting toy to play with but teams in certain parks regardless of winning% are going to have different GS than teams in others.
Easy example..
Chris Young last year averaged a 53.667 GS, but had an ERA+ of 97 and his team went 8-10 in is appearances. According to your logic he would be a .700 winning percentage guy in Texas, according to ERA+ he was slightly better that Padilla (93) on the Texas staff or slightly worse that Jason Marquis (99).
I like GS as a quick look to scan a box score to see how a pitcher did, but it really as to many flaws to be a core analysis stat.
That being said it would be a fun plot to play with.
I think Game Score is a better
barometer on measuring the effectiveness of a starting pitcher than a “Quality Start.” It seems in Texas that soooooo many games are lost by the 3rd/4th inning.
Teams are also such slaves to pitch counts that so many pitchers are pulled before they complete 6 IPs and thus don’t get credit for pitching well enough to win.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 26, 2009 12:06 PM CST up reply actions
I agree Quality Starts are a worthless measure
but GS has some major flaws. The one interesting use of a GS might be as a year long index to compare individual players season long performance per venue vs. a historical index or a 3 year running averageof GS at that particular venue. Or season long per venue vs. team season long per venue.
The problem with QS is the same problem you are going to have with GS. General venues are going to have a major effect on both and there is no way to equalize to a league wide norm.
Right now the best metric I can go with is ERA+. It would be nice to determine some sort of GS+ that is normalized for all parks, but until then the flaws out weigh the value.
I think tRA+ is the new 'gold standard'
at least around here.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I just watched Catch Me if You Can just yesterday.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Thank goodness
we now know that when pitchers perform well their team is more likely to win.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
btw -- Left-handed Reliever
whatever happened to our need for a LH reliever. Who out there interests people, or are we going to go with Gabbard and Wilson as our lefties. FF as our closer.
Next Year! We Swear!
look up in the comments a bit
it was said in a q&a session that gabbard and wilson will be the lefties.
the preceding post was a great success.
gabbard
what is his health status, right now? You talk about a forgotten man.
I remember a report saying the Rangers were reluctant to use him in a relief role because he took so long to warm up? I don’t think i am making that up.
Gabbard's injury cascade
It’s due to Sexson cascading rights and lefts down on his bald azz.
The moves being made are too extra for my taste.
kindof funny
that I didn’t see that above, but I’m not that enthused about Gabbard, we’ll see I guess.
Next Year! We Swear!
I'm a big fan of the crafty lefty
at all levels of baseball, but I effing hate pitchers that nibble / don’t throw strikes.
Right now, Gabbard is much more the latter than the former.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Jan 24, 2009 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
Yes, I think we're pretty much set.
Gabbard and Chris-John as our lefties, Benoit and Chris-John splitting the setup duties depending on the night, and Fx2 ownershipping the shit out of the 9th inning. What a beastly beast that guy is.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 24, 2009 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
yeah, and hopefully Turnbow
can turnaround his health and control issues. I kindof doubt it.
Next Year! We Swear!
I super doubt it. I have zero faith in that guy.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 24, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not getting my hopes up until he is signed....
We Ranger fans are like the victim of a domestic dispute….we keep going back hoping things will work out just to be kicked in the nuts again.
I will be excited when I see Sheets holding up the jersey
by death of the cool on Jan 24, 2009 12:02 PM CST reply actions
OT
How about that Burn Notice coming back? Where are the Burn Notice fans out there.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jan 24, 2009 1:08 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Lol..
I just finished watching the new episode on Hulu about 5 minutes ago. Love the show, it’s got something for everybody.
Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.
by Brandon Worley on Jan 24, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
Is there anything better
than a pissed of Michael Westen?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Couldn't get into it at all.
Found myself making several dismissive wanking motions per episode.
I guess you’re supposed to revel in the glitteringly OTT cheesiness of it all, but I guess I’m just not someone who revels in cheese.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 24, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
Well, that specific kind of cheese.
I like cheese every once in a while.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 24, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
Cause, Who doesn't?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Jan 24, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
I’m not sure you have ever constantly made over-the-top comments yourself. Naturally, you would have over the top shows because such a concept is so foreign to one such as yourself.
I like to think of Burn Notice
as the new McGyver
"But with Tom Hicks squeezing his checkbook tighter than Tony Romo's grip on Jessica Simpson"- Jim Reeves on why Cruz will be the clean-up hitter in '09
The longer the Mets/D-Backs/Brewers/Yankees stay out of the rumors....
the better I feel about the Rangers’ chances.
JD: Adamant about 78 wins in 2009. Go Rangers!
I think today being Fan Fest and all
would be a great time to announce this…..
I’m calling by 4 pm CST, at the FF, Nolan gets on the bullhorn and announces the signing of Sheets. Sheets then comes out riding one of Nolan’s bulls…being led by Jennie Finch while Casey Daigle-Finch sweeps up behind the bull.
Who wants to bet against this?
Just Sign Him '09
I would totally pay to see this
Double time….but I don’t know which one I’m more excited to see: Sheets or Jennie Finch?….
Is it Spring Training Yet?
I would have to say Sheets
Unless they all plan on walking out naked. And even then…
That Gold Glove for Young was the worst thing that could have happened to Texas - now the guy really believes he's good at short. - Keith Law
We asked a question
and we waited for a reply
can we afford him
when will they realize
can we afford him
We all think he’s already affordable
as he can be
Is it overwhelming
A pitcher who can throw a strike?
It’s a good time for Sheetsman
to bring our ERA under five
can we afford him
We all think he’s already affordable
as he can be
Tell everybody
waitin’ for Sheetsman
That they should try to hold on
best they can
He hasn’t dropped them
forgot them
or anything
JD’s trying to liquor up Tom Hicks
by Telegraph on Jan 24, 2009 1:33 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
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