2009 Rangers Projections via ZiPS + CHONE
Alright.
I mentioned a while ago I'd be helping Beyond the Boxscore with their community projections on behalf of the Rangers, and I've gotten underway on doing that.
When we do our community projections at LSB, I'll alter them in a way that makes sense (though I'm probably going to want to keep up these numbers, as well), but, for now, I'm imputing a combination that's 50% CHONE and 50% ZiPS to see what it has to say about us.
There's nothing too major yet because I just started, but figured I'd make a Fan Post about it because ya'll can watch as it goes down.
On the bottom there's a list of teams, and you have to scroll over to the TEX tab to see what I've got so far, and you can look at all the other teams, too.
At the writing of this, there is only Chris Davis (and Mark Ellis, who I think the A's person put in on accident). At first, I had him at 5.6 wins above replacement and freaked out.
. . . then I realized I had him under "catcher," and that was with 700 plate appearances. So now he's at 2.4, which is still nothing to sneeze at. And that's with a bad OBP.
Anyway, I'll be working on that, and this thing will be constantly updated. When PECOTA comes out, I might also include that. Then, when we have community projections up, I might split this over to a separate spread sheet for posterity and I'll update this with our community projections.
One problem is playing time. For now, I'm putting in the player at each position projected to get the majority of the playing time because, well, CHONE and ZiPS both give players way too many combined plate appearances to be possible. I need to figure out a good way to solve that issue, and I'm opened to suggestions from here and I've also asked for help at BtB.
AS THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BE A COMMUNITY THING, imput is welcome.
TL;DR: Projections for the Rangers available here.
(NOTE: I am not yet sure I'm doing things correctly.)
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first off
i have no idea what is going on with this.
and secondly, im pretty intrigued. are you going to eventually put together a composite projection for each ranger and then use it to derive a win-loss projection?
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jan 25, 2009 12:40 AM CST reply actions
looks pretty cool
still unsure about what the methodology will be but i’ll try to help out if i can
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jan 25, 2009 1:06 AM CST up reply actions
Which means I'm doing something wrong, btw.
Currently working that out.
I think it might be the park adjustments.
Playing Time Issue
I have not yet figured out how to do a park adjustment for OBP and SLG. If anyone has advice, hand it over.
As far as playing time, for now, at a position where there’s doubt over who will start (at this point), I’m splitting time evenly.
UPDATE
ZiPS and CHONE are already park adjusted. While I will still need to figure out how to adjust for community projections, I’m back to using a combination of the two for the projection. I can easily switch it to use wOBA later, as well.

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