Want minor league defensive stats? Now, we've got 'em...
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 28, 2009 10:00 AM CST
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PrintThe very awesome Minor League Splits website now has defensive numbers -- specifically, Total Zone figures -- for minor leaguers dating back to 2005.
Total Zone is a system created by the guy behind CHONE, that is sort of a variation of ZR.
This is, as far as I know, the only higher-level defensive data available for minor leaguers. Obviously, it isn't perfect (any more than any other defensive stat is), but I think this is a good start.
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correction
just in his frisco time.
in the half season in bakersfield it has +8/150.
the preceding post was a great success.
Yeah but...
I know it may be a leap of faith to a degree, but the total chances are almost identical at both stops—-so that puts him at about +22 for last season in total…ZIPPY!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Bakersfield
I seem to remember someone saying that park had a small and/or shallow CF and that was one reason they bumped him up to Frisco — to give him more room to be challenged. That shallow field might mean a smaller + line if some of those chances turned into HRs or went to other fielders.
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Neither can I
How many are going to go over there and the first player they look up is Andrus?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
not except...
A little above average with the errors.
And it was +10/150 last year.
the preceding post was a great success.
Yes
Basicly a little above average, and all of his increased range gets nullified because of his errors.
That’ll go over well in the press.
I think fans and the press really only remember great and terrible plays. Hopefully he gets on sportscenter a lot.
Get off my lawn.
You're making the assumption
that his defense can’t improve when he is on the Major League team. That isn’t likely to happen.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Because he didn't improve much
2006 to 2007 while jumping levels, nor 2007 to 2008 while jumping levels.
Get off my lawn.
Fair assumption
I cannot imagine him suddenly being relatively error free while jumping the major leagues from AA.
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Maybe in 2009
But i dont thiunk anyone expects him to make 32 errors, more in a full mlb season, for the rest of his ranger career.
And while his range by athleticism isn’t going to get better, he can still learn better positioning and such to take better advantage of it.
the preceding post was a great success.
+ better field surfaces, + better 1B man
+ better scorers
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
His error rate
has been fairly consistent in the minors.
When I’m talking about the errors, I’m mostly talking about the 2009 season and how much crap he is going to take from the press and fans after displacing St. Michael.
Get off my lawn.
If we're talking about the press
reality doesn’t matter. If it looks like he’s getting to a lot of balls, it doesn’t matter what his defensive metrics say. It will be all about errors versus apparent range, just like the discussion on Kinsler. We all – obviously including the Rangers – knew the moment that they announced the deal that Andrus will probably make too many errors and that members of the local media will mock the move as a result. This information doesn’t change that one bit.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 28, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
However
with Kinsler, its easy to point to his bat when you see the large number of errors.
Andrus is being touted as a light bat, decent OBP guy with a Gold Glove. A mess of errors isn’t going to help him out when he’s struggling with the Mendoza line.
Get off my lawn.
Again though
This is the exact discussion that we could and did have when the news came out. This doesn’t change it at all.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 28, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
what changes
is yet another set of numbers that don’t exactly point to Gold Glove Defense in the near term. The numbers say give him another year in the minors.
Get off my lawn.
But you are speaking in terms of
local media perception, which we know will not involve any awareness of numbers like this. As Galloway says, OPS is a meaningless nerd stat.
If we are talking reality, isn’t this pretty much what we would expect? Good but not transcendent range mitigated by error totals that are way too high adding up to a little above average defense.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 28, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions
From some of the reports
I assumed Transcendent range mixed with lots of errors. There are folks pumping him up as a defensive superstar.
Get off my lawn.
Except
the numbers suggest they are overrating him.
In the past, we have seen a lot of very fast prospects who are overrated defensively.
Get off my lawn.
Ok, but
you are usually the one quickest to downplay defensive stats, so I’m surprised to see you now touting them.
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Don't know if I'm touting them
however I am playing them off against eyewitness accounts, which, in the past, haven’t been any more reliable than stats when it comes to defense. Eyewitness accounts have usually overrated guys who make the occasional big spectacular play, or a guy with speed, in my opinion.
Get off my lawn.
Both are suspect
as you say. I think, as one of the guys at BBTIA said last week, that we’ll have some oohs and ahs, and plenty oh-nos as well with him.
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Yep,
eyewitness accounts pretty much vary depending on the game you go to. If someone only saw inning where Brooks Robinson made 3 errors in one inning, they would likely conclude he was a bad defensive 3B.
If someone saw the Sportscenter highligh of Torii Hunter jumping over the wall to save a HR, they would conclude he was a great defensive CF.
I wish the many defensive rating systems were more consistent. However, you can find defensive ratings that say MY brings a lot of Win Shares to the Rangers based on his defense at short, and you can find a lot of rating systems that say he is a bad defensive SS. I don’t see a great deal of correlation with many defensive rating systems.
Get off my lawn.
eyewitness accounts
However, I’ve seen enough accounts from guys whose opinions I trust to think that Andrus must have something. He wasn’t playing either time I got out to Frisco last season, unfortunately.
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Brooks Robinson
I doubt he ever made 3 errors in a game, much less one inning. But, your point is taken.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
Sigh, I hate being doubted.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1971/B07280BAL1971.htm
ATHLETICS 5TH: Tenace was called out on strikes; BROWN BATTED
FOR GREEN; Brown grounded out (shortstop to first); Odom walked;
On a bunt Campaneris singled to third [Odom to third (error by
B. Robinson), Campaneris to second]; Hendrick reached on an
error by B. Robinson [Odom scored (error by B. Robinson)
(unearned) (no RBI), Campaneris scored (unearned) (no RBI),
Hendrick to second]; Jackson was called out on strikes; 2 R (0
ER), 1 H, 3 E, 1 LOB. Athletics 2, Orioles 0.
Get off my lawn.
I think thats only 2 errors
The first on the bunt by Campaneris and the second on Hendricks ball. Like it was a ground ball he bobbled and allowed the guy to reach base and since it was 2 out and guy on 3rd that guy scored. Probably an overthrow.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
The official scorer
gave Robinson 2 errors on Hendricks ball. Fielding error + Throwing error. Notice the 3 errors in the inning summary?
Get off my lawn.
Completely missed that
Thanks
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Vallejo was a minus 6 last year
that makes no sense… I dont see how Vallejo + Andrus were a total minus four… Something tells me these stats arent too good
Chris (NJ): I am personally offended at how you ranked a prospect from my favorite team, even though I do not know said prospect, nor have I ever seen him play. In my opinion you only have your job because, like your employers, you have an unholy bias towards my favorite team’s rival. Also, you’re short.
Keith Law: You’re right. I am short.
lucky for you
He doesn’t look good.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
This has been a pretty slow offseason
But at least Fangraphs and now minorleaguesplits have given us something to help keep us busy.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Our best defender
Paisano is a +5/150.
"Come on man you have to admit the average guy in a baseball clubhouse...... is relatively a douchebag." BGL.
How does that make him
the best? How exactly should I interpret these numbers?
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I think he means
the best according to what many people on this site think. If that makes any sense….
because he hasn't even reached his peak yet, up until this point, he just did it on talent. - Ron Washington on Josh Hamilton
by Lonerangers on Jan 28, 2009 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
He has a good arm
and is good in the OF, now if he could only hit.
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It looks like Fangraphs added another projection to their system
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Sobering statistic on Elvis Andrus
When you neutralize Andrus’ line for luck and park effect, Andrus put up the following line last year:
.273/.330/.346 (.676 OPS)
His BABIP was really high last year. Granted he will be playing half his games in a hitters park next season, but we certainly should have some pretty low expectations for Andrus next season. Even if he improved a good deal this off-season, he is still likely to seriously struggle next year.
Look at his MLE
and then cry…
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
improvement
Elvis will struggle whether he starts in AAA or Arlington. The key is his monthly improvements. Also, i don’t think he is the type of hitter that can take advantage of the RBiA.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
How did you neutralize for luck?
And First Inning at least shows that Frisco’s park depressed singles, doubles, and triples a little bit and HRs were the same. The Texas League as a whole last year was more hitter friendly, but not Dr. Pepper Ballpark.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
June, July & August
were really sweet.
Ok, check out his LD% as compared to his stats. If he can keep that around 20%, that would be real nice. Of course, I don’t know how that % compares to the league.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
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