I don’t see how his having an 80 FB addresses my comment above.

He has a no hitter

Don’t get mixed up, in that I was only responding to your question about a straight up swap. I also don’t think that Texas would put Salty + Feliz on the Table for Buchholz (+). That doesn’t mean that I think the Sox are willing to deal Buchholz for anything less, however. It’s a matter of what my opinion is vs what I think the Red Sox FO would do.

I do think you’re simplifying Buchholz’s performance and talent issues though. To say that he’s proven very little in the majors outside of one great game is wrong. He pitched well for the Sox in all of 2007 (which is a very small sample, granted) and he pitched pretty well for a 23 yr old into the first game in May.

After that he pretty much fell apart. Interestingly he seemed to be having really bad luck with men on base (the difference in his FIP and xFIP attest to this); he would do his job and get weak contact but the ball were almost always between fielders or mishandled by them. (Iit was kind of fascinating, actually. You wouldn’t have thought anyone’s luck could be that comically bad.)

After that his composure got pretty bad and the Sox started tinkering with his mechanics and arm slot, and he looked terrible on the MLB level. However when he was in AAA he went back and just dominated. It looks like it’s not a question of his stuff, it’s a question of maturity and overcoming the first real adversity he’s had to face.

And of course just talking about his ML performance leaves out his performance in the minors, which is better than Feliz’s. The Sox put a lot of weight into the statistical record, so they’re not likely to sell low on a guy with his pedigree.

Unfortunately there aren’t a lot of these kinds of deals that we can look at to figure out a “market rate” for this kind of exchange. The only recent one I can remember is Danks for McCarthy. Was that a straight up deal, or were other prospects involved (I thought Texas added a piece to the trade, but don’t remember for sure).

I don’t think the Sox are actually that interested in Lowe. I was just using him as an example of how a team with a high payroll doesn’t gain that much benefit by trying to be cheap at the back of their rotation.

The Sox can’t sign someone better than Buchholz projects to be, so he won’t become expendable if they “fill” their rotation. There are also some rumors that Wakefield might retire, so there’s another rotation spot…

The only way I see the Sox dealing Buchholz is if they can get back an elite hitter (what they were looking for with Hanley). What do want for Salty and Hamilton?

I would say that people who wish to achieve power become good at manipulating people’s beliefs.

ARE. YOU. GAY!!??

if I remember right.