Bill James: Boycott the BCS
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 7, 2009 8:42 PM CST
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PrintBill James has an excellent article up on the stupidity of the BCS system, and why folks who value quantitative analysis should boycott the BCS.
In particular, he highlights the particularly moronotological rule that margin of victory cannot be taken into account in the computer rankings (even though everyone agrees that it is taken into account in the human polls), and the fact that the BCS basically uses the BCS computers to validate what the human pollsters say. If the human polls and the computer results are significantly different, well, the computers must be wrong, and the BCS tinkers with the formulas.
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i'm not totally on board with a playoff system
(I also don’t really care a lot) but I do agree with him that the BCS rankings aren’t exactly great. The polls + computer just leads to stupid results. There has to be a better rating system out there. Not one of the computer rankings systems that looks all that great – maybe because you can’t take into consideration margin of victory.
Mandatory reading before suggesting a trade
Thank you!
People need to stop worrying about being pissed off at each other for the stupid results that the BCS brings about and start focusing frustration on the people that are keeping us from making college football a real sport.
Not sure I completely agree with that theory
If the human polls and the computer results are significantly different, well, the computers must be wrong, and the BCS tinkers with the formulas
If that is really the case, they will need to tinker with the formula again this year, which I don’t expect them to do.
well....
instead of blaming the computers this year the BCS was able to blame the big 12 for their tie-break procedure.
I certainly agree with that theory
The original BCS formula was by far my favorite version. Computer polls included margin of victory. Losses counted against you again. I think strength of schedule was a separate factor as well. Human polls were less than 50% of that original system.
But instead of reducing the influence of the human polls, their influence has only gotten stronger over the last several years. First they made the computers not use margin-of-victory, then they removed the strength of schedule and loss penalty. Now random people have 67% influence over who plays in the “official” national championship game and gets to cash in on those big payday bowls.
Whenever there is a BCS controversy, people inevitably blame the computers – not the random guy from the Birmingham newspaper who refuses to vote for USC over an SEC school. What I think the people really wanted was a system where the computers will resolve a disagreement between the two polls (which aren’t even the same two polls now, since one of them dropped out).
How?
seems fine to me to write a “BCS is stupid” article or a “How to fix college football” article… but to ask fans “to have nothing to do with the BCS” is a little ridiculous. What is he suggesting? Don’t click on the ESPN link that tells us the BCS Rankings? Don’t tune in Sunday nights when BCS Rankings are revealed? Don’t watch when Florida and Oklahoma square off tomorrow night?
Whatever. It’s the system we’ve got. It’ll be a game worth watching. And it is the system that, for now, determines the national champion.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
did you read it?
“But until that happens, statisticians, quantitative analysts, and all related professionals should have the dignity, the self-respect, and the common sense to have nothing to do with the BCS”
I interpret that to mean that he would advocate a boycott by those that allow their respective computer rankings to be used for what most people think is a sham for many different reasons.
He didn’t say anything about not watching did he?
The true mathematicians hereon
have always understood this…
I'm just killing time until I'm reincarnated.
Mountain West getting an auto-bid
would be a start. Can’t take down the system in this day and age without getting inside it.
Gerald Laird: One Man, 5 Scoops.
Why the Mountain West?
Firstly, automatic bids are just plain stupid – remember a few years ago when the Big East could barely field a single team that could make the top 25? The best 12 schools should get to go to the BCS – winning a conference is meaningless.
Secondly, why not the MAC or the WAC or Conference USA? The MWC is strong right now, but those conferences have all been strong in past years.
But if you must have auto-bids, my solution is this – add the Cotton Bowl as a BCS game, make the bowl / conference champions match up like this, roughly:
Rose: Big 10/Pac 10
Fiesta: <MWC/WAC top team> vs at-large
Cotton: Big XIII vs <at large/Conf USA/MAC>
Sugar: SEC vs <at large/Conf USA/MAC>
Orange: ACC vs Big East
Rotate the championship game
Guarantee that one school from the MWC or WAC gets into the BCS, and one school from the Conf USA or MAC get in (or two schools from those four conferences)
Or just, you know, go to a playoff.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
So last Friday I’m at a bar. I take this guy home. He’s a little fat. Whatever, right? Plus, chubsters are so grateful, they usually try harder. Anyway, right in the middle of things, he’s sweating and grunting like a hairy rhino and I just start to hate myself. Really, really hate myself… So, without even thinking, I just head butt him right in the face. Bam. Clock him right between the eyes. Knock him out cold. So, that’s what I got. What you got going on?
well obviously
but that, you know, would make sense. I’m talking about a good strategy for their screwed up system.
Gotta be some sort of playoffs
Utah (this year) could very well be #1…who really knows?
The Boise States, TCU (they are really good), TTech (Although they aren’t the best case given their finale), Cincy, Louisville, et al, are always going to be given short shrift.
Isn’t the fun of March Madness seeing if the no-names are actually good?
You never know til the game is played.
I'm just killing time until I'm reincarnated.
I do think the Cotton Bowl is added once they move into the new stadium.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Then hopefully they'll go with the +1 format.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
I don't think it's eligible to be a BCS bowl until 2014
Or maybe 2012. I cant remember and too lazy to research.
Ah, I see
Is the Cotton Bowl moving over next year?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Yes
The bowl will be played in Arlington next winter. It’s not eligible to become a BCS bowl until some years in the future.
A couple of stories that ran last spring suggest they are hoping for inclusion in 2011. Don’t know if anything has changed since then.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
"Moronotological"
If you google it right now, the only thing that comes up is this page. Good work.
"Hold up that (expletive) Cubs (expletive). (Expletive) them." -- Patti Blagojevich.
What's better than a wordsmith?
Maybe wordrenaissancer ?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Jan 8, 2009 1:14 AM CST up reply actions
I Think Pete Rose Should be in the Hall of Fame
BCS talk gives me tired head…face
Free Frank Catalanotto
I'm surprised
that Bill James didn’t hit up Josey on his bluetooth and tell him to post this.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
Yeah
but Josey has some serious man-love for James.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 8, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
Here is an alternative to boycotting the BCS
Boycott the BCS Advertisers. That way you can still watch the games and have an impact on the money makers.
Hard for me to do that...
I work for Citi (Rose Bowl).
I don’t have Allstate car insurance (Sugar) don’t eat Tostitos chips (Fiesta) or use Fed Ex (Orange) to ship though so does that count?
What I think would be funny is if no one watched the game tonight and the TV ratings went into the toilet, won’t happen though.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
You're too limited.
Tostitos is ALL Frito Lay products, which also is Pepsico and Tropicana, among others. It would be tough to boycott that company, even if you tried you’d probably inadvertently buy something of theirs.
Citi uses bailout money to sponsor the Rose Bowl?
Will I get a free ticket next year?
I'm just killing time until I'm reincarnated.
I don't like...
a lot of the things that Citi does. To me they’re just a paycheck.
Do you agree with everything McDonald’s does?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Jan 9, 2009 5:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That was funny to you?
“Do you agree with everything McDonald’s does?”
I'm just killing time until I'm reincarnated.
I'm anti-playoff in college football.
For a lot of reasons that I’m tired of listing and don’t feel like doing so at the moment, anyway.
But I agree the BCS is retarded. I like most of the idea, the execution is just ass-backwards.
8 team playoff
I would like to see an 8 team playoff. The 6 major football conferences (ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, Big East) send their champions. The other 2 spots go to the highest ranked champions of the other conferences or independents.
The first round of games each year would always be a regional matchup with the at-large teams rotating among the major conferences. For example: this year USC could have played Utah in the Rose Bowl. Next year they could play Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl. They would never have to travel cross country for a first round game.
I haven’t thought about it much beyond what I wrote above.
Mitch Moreland - Rangers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year
In my dreams. . .
The Cotton Bowl is in the BCS and aligned with the Big XII, to make it a big deal again. The Mountain West is included, and aligned with the Fiesta Bowl. The BCS or NCAA (if they have the power, not sure if they do) enforce tougher non-conference scheduling. The Rose Bowl is always Big 10/Pac 10 again. All the big games are on New Years again and NO games are after New Years, except the National Championship Game.
The BCS gets a swift kick in the ass with better computers and no more coaches poll (yuck), and at the end of the Bowls, the top two teams remaining play.
That’s entirely personal preference, though. It would only take something similar, not exact, to make me happy.
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