Wednesday morning Rangers things
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 14, 2009 9:29 AM CDT
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PrintEvan Grant has his grades for the outfielders up this morning, and Marlon Byrd gets an "A," while Nelson Cruz and David Murphy are both "B"s. It highlights the disconnect, I think, between what the team, and those that cover the team, perceive of Cruz's performance this year, and what those of us out in the interwebs think of Cruz (particularly in relation to the other outfielders on the team).
Grant also makes this rather salient point:
He's never had more trade value (due to his 33 homers), but if the Rangers deal him this winter, they are going to be looking for another right-handed hitter.
They probably are going to be looking for a right-handed hitter anyway, who can DH and backup at first base and the outfield corners until Justin Smoak is ready to come up. But if you move Cruz, it makes the need for a legit middle-of-the-order bat that much more important (unless you think a Borbon/Byrd/Murphy outfield is the sort of offensive threat that makes this team a contender).
Barry Horn writes that the Rangers were still near the bottom in TV ratings this year, but did show the second-highest percentage increase in ratings.
And Jeff Wilson reports that scout Mel Dider, special assistant Jay Robertson, and clubhouse manager Zack Minasian will not be coming back for 2010.
Didier has been in the game for over 60 years, and is a bit of a lightning rod because he was reportedly one of the biggest backers of acquiring Brandon McCarthy.
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someone explain to me how David Murphy and Nelson Cruz
get the same grade?
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
I suspect that...
…if you post that question at the DMN blog, Evan will answer.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 14, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions
I did, and he did
Evan’s response:
@Todd Trice: In the second half, there numbers were pretty similar, though Cruz did have an advantage in OPS (.839-.768). It’s a significant advantage, yes, but my general feeling was that Murphy was more reliable than Cruz in the second half of the season and I put more weight on the performance in the heat of the pennant race. In addition, when the Rangers needed somebody to move up into a run-producing spot, Murphy provided a lift in the No. 3 spot in place of Josh Hamilton; Cruz, however, struggled in the cleanup spot. Is it subjective? Yes. Do you make a case for Cruz to have a half-grade higher yes. But if a solid B ranks from 83-87 on the 100-percent scale, let’s say Murphy was an an 83 and Cruz an 87.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
Yuck.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
that response is so bad
I decided to not even comment on it. Speaks for itself.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
So because...
Wash put Murphy in the 3 hole he’s just as good (or almost as good) as Cruz?
Got it. Great analysis Evan.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
He tries to pass it off with the "Is it subjective? Yes" qualifier, but it's not subjectivity that bothers me.
Even when we (LSBers) all speak in WAR and OPS there’s a great deal of subjectivity. What is bothersome is just that lack of realization of players having hot/cold streaks, of cherry picking events an inappropriately contrasting them by not considering context, of the lack of factoring in the obvious political moves by Wash to push Byrd down managements throat, and so on. All of that stuff is subjective, and it is also pushed under the rug in Evan’s thinking.
So, Cruz, I feel sorry for him, and I hope that the lack of media fanfare surrounding him doesn’t affect his trade value.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
Wow.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
Does Evan know that games in the second half of the season are also worth one (1) win or loss?
Or that outfielders have to field baseballs?
I get the sense that Evan is a great guy and that he works hard at what he does
But his baseball opinions and analysis really suck IMO. He’s only a step or two from TR Sullivan territory.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
That's a little hyperbolic
He’s been on a bit of a cold streak lately, and I agree that this is a bafflingly bad take, but I wouldn’t go that far.
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Oct 14, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Evan Grant
is great at baseball reporting and sucks ass at baseball analysis?
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Nutshell
And I love his reporting, and headscratch at his analyses.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 14, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Did you always feel this way about EG, Ed?
I thought it was because of his opinion on Cruz….what else has he written per analysis of the team that makes you scratch your head?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 14, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions
The tendency to synthesize
Other opinions, including clubhouse commentary (without attribution) into a “net net” appraisal. The lack of specificity in using some but not all relevant stats. The one step back on eyeball takes. In short, the dogged and persistent beat writer who makes his deadlines but can’t afford the slow, grave analysis the genuine analysts have to undertake. Not one specif case, although the Cruz devaluation is symbolic, but is not the hallmark of Evan’s good work.
I don’t think his opinion on any one player composes his contribution.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 14, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep. I hope he always has a job following the Rangers around.
If only the columnists would step up and do actual analysis rather than rants and bits.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
I was thinking the same thing.
Also, I didn’t know about Borbon missing signs. This gets me to scratch my head. Where is the baseball savvy? I see a warning flag which makes 2 (weak ass arm #1).
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
I really wish Evan would stop with this grading nonsense
A nice guy who’s making an utter fool of himself. His reasoning on everything including the Cruz stuff is laughably bad.
by behindthebag on Oct 14, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Nellie
Here’s my problem with Evan’s evaluation:
What was disappointing was his demotion to the bench during the most critical moments of the pennant race late in September. If you don’t trust your leading home run hitter – and the Rangers didn’t – you are going to be fighting an uphill battle. Also, the Rangers didn’t trust him in the cleanup spot, yanking him out for the stretch drive; when he played he hit fifth or sixth.
So is Evan docking Nellie points because Wash wouldn’t play him? I’m thinking you should look at his performance independent of what Wash thought which puts him at the #1 OFer.
Marlon’s .932 OPS in the cleanup spot was an interesting observation but you can’t draw any conclusions from it. In the 5th spot he OPSed .586 and 6th = .750. So Marlon lost 350 points in OPS by being dropped one spot?
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
and what does this mean?
Byrd did it in his free agent season when players often crumble under the pressure
Never heard that one before.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 14, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
That slipped by me
This did not – Borbon did not have a .376 OPS. Granted, it’s just one letter but when you’re throwing out everyone’s OPS you should get that one correct.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
Murphy
has always been inexplicably overrated. At the end of the year, Murphy wasn’t significantly more productive than the much maligned Andruw Jones, and its not like Murphy is flashing much of a glove defensively.
I am always completely shocked how much love Murphy gets.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Murphy
He’s white, and he hustles. David Eckstein syndrome…
"I cannot believe how fucking off base I was about Tiny E before this season. The Kid is great and is going to become a star."
- Wails
That's the only thing I can figure
Murphy is a decent enough 4th OF, but elevating him to Cruz’s level is just madness.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Why dont the Rangers just leave well enough alone?
Let Byrd go. Start Borbon and Cruz in the OF every game you can. Have Boggs, Murphy and Hamilton rotate through the other OF spot making sure Hamilton is at DH when he isnt playing in the OF until Smoak is hopefully ready by midseason (200-300 additional AAA at bats). Then you have an excellent OF defensively at all times. You put Boggs in a position to succeed hitting against lefties and Murphy hitting against righties. There will be plenty of ABs vs righties as Murhpy is the better player.
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Oct 14, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
That looks like another team
that won’t win much of anything.
Your OF is one of the better places to get Offense, and Borbon, Cruz, and one of Boggs, Murphy and Hamilton looks pretty damn weak to me.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
depends on Hamilton
I think an OF of Hamilton (the 08 version please)/Borbon/Cruz would be one of the better outfields in the AL.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
painting with a broad brush here
But if you get, say an 850 OPS out of both corners and a 750 in center, with all playing average or better defense, then I think that is a top third outfield.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
Who is your DH
if Hamilton is a semi-regular OF?
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I agree with you
that we need to bring in a good bat, I just think it’s more likely that we can find a good/cheap DH, no need to have to pay extra for the defensive value.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
I assume he is still at 1B though
It looks like tricer and I are on the same page that you probably need to acquire a bat.
Personally, I’d be fine with MBradley as long as the Cubbies eat the vast majority of his contract, and don’t want much in return.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
So what would you suggest?
resigning Byrd? With this teams present financial situation I think that is about the best the Rangers can do. Frankly, for this offense to be better several things need to happen:
1) Must have a HUGE, healthy recovery yr from Hamilton
2) CD needs to hit like he did after his recall
3) I think a strict Murphy/Boggs platoon could be very successful. The problem lies when Wash starts playing Murphy for 10 straight games (of which 4 are against lefties) because of his gut. Then looks at the overall numbers and sees Murphy is doing well overall but fails to notice he did all of this damage against righties
4) Borbon and Andrus have to be terrors at the top of lineup
5) MY needs a repeat yr and cannot be out of the lineup
6) Hit Kinsler 5th or 6th against righties, PLEASE!!!
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Oct 14, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the Rangers need to add a legit bat
Preferably one that could fill in at a COF spot, but if it is a DH/1B type, so be it.
Go get Jim Thome, or Nick Johnson, or someone of that ilk to hit in the middle of the order, if you plan on contending.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 14, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Yep
Without one more plus bat, its tough to see this offense leaping forward. This team scored 784 runs last year, and it needs to go into next year where everything doesn’t have to go right to score 850+.
If you make a plan that requires everything to go right, you are basicly dreaming, not planning. You can bet the ranch that someone will be injured, you’ll have multiple DL trips, and someone who you are counting on to hit won’t hit.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
If it is a DH
type when I think is more realistic because you know the Rangers mindset would be to just re-sign Byrd if they are going to go after an OFer.
As far as outfielders go the only two that seem attractive are Abreu, Holliday, Bay and Guerrero. Holliday and Bay are too pricey. Abreu would be nice but I think he may be priced out as well. His case will be interesting. Guerrero is likely a DH only type. Will he accept that? I think he would be a good fit but at what cost? Also, would he want more than a one yr deal? Probably.
Then you have Nick Johnson, Thome, Sheffield, and Matsui. I wouldnt mind any of those guys but only at one yr deals.
I would agree you need another bat but i just dont know if the team has the money to get one. This is what makes the ownership situation so frustrating.
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Oct 14, 2009 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
One potential name that surprised me....
Gabe Kapler. Dude kills LHP and can cover OF spots (even CF in a pinch). He posted 1.001 and 0.932 OPS against LHP the past two seasons with OBP about .380. He’s the perfect, cheap 1-yr contract type (made $1M in 2009). If he flops, you bring up Smoak. It’s likely he won’t flop, though (unless he hits the wall with age, since he’s 34), and he has some value in the field.
So, the most potent lineup/defense the Rangers could have next year would be something like:
Hamilton in LF, Borbon in CF, Cruz in RF and Gabe (or someone similar) at DH against LHP, and Murphy in LF, Borbon in CF, Cruz/Hamilton in RF and Hamilton/Cruz DH against RHP.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
Could Gabe play 1B?
‘Cause CD wasn’t bad against righties even in this very bad season, at .260 .307 .502 .808, but atrocious against lefties, .189 .235 .311 .546.
Overall, not a bad idea for a cheap bench bat/lefty killer.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
2 games in 11 seasons
As a defensive replacement, playing only 3 innings. And in the minors, only 4 total chances since he started in 1994. I think Gabe would need a lot of additional fielding work over the offseason to be a part-time 1B for the Rangers in 2010.
by Mark from OC on Oct 14, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Cahill says
Pffffffffttttttttt
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 14, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Perfect quote
Of the many things I worry about on this team next year, finding an adequate defensive replacement at 1B doesn’t make the top 100 on the list.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
We need a 1B in 2010 who is not -150 points in OPS
to the average AL 1B.
That would help a lot.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 14, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
How much do you think Thome would cost?
He certainly is not worth the $13M he made this year. Could the Rangers afford $7-8M if they don’t resign Byrd?
|Space for Rent|
The Rangers could afford it
The current Rangers ownership, however, may not be able to. What I mean is that over the long haul with the Rangers payroll being as low as it is now the Rangers could support such a contract. What worries me is that the current ownership group could not pay the upfront signing bonuses need for free agents this offseason.
by Mark from OC on Oct 14, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Thome wants to go back to Chicago
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Oct 14, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Nick Johnson can't stay on the field
He makes B-Mac look like Ripken.
Bad idea.
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Oct 14, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
If he's cheap enough
he might stay on the field long enough for Smoak to be ready, and be a decent trade chip in the summer. But I think someone will give him more money than I’d be comfortable paying.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
He's never been on an AL team where he had the power of the DH, though.
Did wonders for Uncle Milton.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Beware 2011: The Fortypocalypse is Nigh...
by thedirkatron on Oct 14, 2009 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Did it though?
Bradley played in 2 fewer games this year in the NL.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Nick Johnson is not a middle of the order hitter
Im sorry but I would rather have Marlon Byrd as cleanup hitter over Nick Johnson. Byrd hits for similar, if not better, average and slugs better (Johnson has the edge career wise but Byrds been better the last few years). If we got Johnson I think we should hit him 6th or 7th.
Milton Bradley was a great cleanup hitter for us not because of his 400 OBP but because of his .321 average and his .563 slugging percentage.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Agreed
Endorsed. Whatever.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 14, 2009 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions
This needs to be repeated
I think a strict Murphy/Boggs platoon could be very successful. The problem lies when Wash starts playing Murphy for 10 straight games (of which 4 are against lefties) because of his gut. Then looks at the overall numbers and sees Murphy is doing well overall but fails to notice he did all of this damage against righties
I’m tempted to change that to my sig.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Or maybe
if he had a constant stomach ache? That would throw off his “gut” then he would manage differently ha
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Oct 14, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Frm Sept 1st to the end of the season, Murphy posted a .287/344/.478/.822 line
That would seem to be a bit more robust than what the essentially invisible Andruw Jones contributed in the same time-frame.
by twinkilling on Oct 14, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Great
you are throwing one months worth of stats at me. You are a freaking Genius.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Sorry, when you posted "At the end of the year, Murphy wasn’t significantly more productive than the much maligned Andruw Jones,"
I actually thought you were referring to “the end of the year”. Silly me.
by twinkilling on Oct 14, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
No,
perhaps I should have phrased that over the entire year. Murphy had his hot streaks, and he had his cold streaks. So did Jones. When you average them all out, whether you look at WOBA or OPS, their offense was almost identical.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I'm starting to think it's Texas_Dawg on a new IP.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
Durrett
is still doing his season reviews just like Evan — why no love for him?
http://espn.go.com/dallas/columns/rangers/blog?post=4557214&name=rangers
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
Well that's just D U M B
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 14, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Just stupid...
there is no other way to put it. Grading Murphy and Cruz the same, while grading Marlon Byrd higher than Cruz is just asinine.
There is zero justification for such grades.
Also, Ryan Jones over at Inside Corner takes a look at the Rangers catchers. I thought this was his second straight strong article. Perhaps Inside Corner as gained something by losing Grant.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I love Nelson Cruz and all that, BUT
the only thing he did well in 2009 was to hit HR’s. His BA and OBP were poor and his reads and routes in the OF do leave room for improvement. Additionally, when it comes to the swing and miss (especially on 1st pitch bad balls), he seemed to have gotten worse, rather than better, as the season progressed. While the argument that David Murphy may have been overrated by many, the same could well be true for Nellie Cruz.
by twinkilling on Oct 14, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Well
BP has him as 4 runs above average offensively, relative to his position, so it wasn’t like he was terrible with the bat.
And most of the advanced stats show that he was pretty good defensively out there, as well.
He certainly was better than either Byrd or Murphy this year.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 14, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions
The perception
that a league average defensive CF who hits 800+ isn’t valuable baffles me.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
He's not a league average defensive CF
and he’s only going to get worse.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 14, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Byrd has value
but it ain’t what it would take to resign him. I’m really not sure why you posted that, I understand exactly what Byrd’s value is. I simply fear they will spend too much to sign him when they could allocate their resources more efficiently.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Nobody has ever said he doesn't have value
Was Byrd the best OFer last season? No, but he was quite good. If Byrd was signed through next year no one would have a problem with that.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
Really?
Cruz – .260 / .332 / .524. That’s a .856 OPS and a 121 OPS+.
Byrd – .283 / .329 / .479. That’s a .808 OPS and a 109 OPS+.
So Cruz actually had a higher OBP than Byrd.
And while people want to talk about Nellie taking bad routes to balls, how about Byrd? I watched every game this year and Byrd wasn’t always taking the best route to a fly ball. The defensive stats, although they have their faults, show Cruz > Byrd defensively.
Don’t even get me started on first pitch swinging. Byrd did that more than any other player on the Rangers this year.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
You are probably right, but
For some reason from the games I was able to see it seems like Hank was the worst first pitch swinger on the Rangers this year. Obviously I didn’t get to see the majority of the games. And luckily he won’t be back again in 2010.
by Mark from OC on Oct 14, 2009 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Why does every defense of Cruz start with a comparison to Byrd?
One played CF, the other RF. I don’t think Byrd took any swings away from Cruz.
by twinkilling on Oct 14, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions
who do you want Cruz to be compared to?
Cruz was our best OFer, so you compare him to the person perceived to have had a better year. It makes sense.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Cruz, like all others, should be judged on his own merits
and if compared, it would seem to make more sense to compare him to other COF’ers, rather than CF’ers. I just don’t get why every defense of Cruz has to begin with a criticism of Byrd.
by twinkilling on Oct 14, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Okay...
would you like me to compare him to Murphy who EG graded as his equal?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
So what?
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Just letting slc ranger know
that Byrd was not the worse 1st pitch swinger like he said.
|Space for Rent|
Sorry, I should have responded to slcranger.
Whether a player swings a lot on 0-0, or 3-0 matters less than what kind of results he gets when he does it.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
This post (slc's) should be pasted up
In the clubhouse and team offices.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 14, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
You do realize
Cruz had a higher OBP than Byrd right?
I do think hitting infront of the Rangers black hole for most of the year probably didn’t help Cruz’s numbers either. I mean 7 and 8 were quite frequently someone sporting a below 700 OPS. Why throw Cruz, or who ever is in the 6 hole, any pitch to hit. Nibble on the edges and eventually most players will swing.
Now I don’t really believe in protection that much, but this is a case where it might actually work out some.
What do voluntary mean?
Adam have you completely given up on Hamilton for 2010?
You wrote “unless you think a Borbon/Byrd/Murphy outfield is the sort of offensive threat that makes this team a contender.” Does this mean you don’t think he can come back or he will be relegated completely to DH?
I have faith that Hamilton can refind whatever he lost in 2009. Hopefully he has strong guidance in the off-season and stays away from negative infuencers in his life.
I don't think he will be there 1/2 time
Yes, he will get days off and should DH often, but not even 1/2 the time. It is too early in his career to completely relegate Hamilton to DH – even with his injury history.
by Mark from OC on Oct 14, 2009 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not assuming he'll be there full-time
But I’m assuming that, if Cruz is traded, you’ll be looking at some combo of Borbon/Murphy/Hamilton/Byrd (assuming Byrd re-signs) in the outfield and DH slots.
In that scenario, you still need a 4th outfielder, and you’re still very weak offensively in those four slots, before we even consider that Chris Davis is an enigma right now at first base.
I just don’t see you can go into spring training as that as your plan if you plan on contending.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 14, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
I would be very upset with that OF DH combo
I don’t think the Rangers re-sign Byrd now unless the ownership situation resolves much quicker than originally expected. There will be some team interested in him a la Bradley and GMJ. As I’ve mentioned before, I don’t think Murphy is a starting OF for a contender. That leaves Borbon and Hamilton for the starting OF and DH slots and at least 2 big holes to fill. This could easily lead to Smoak starting the season in the majors instead of more prep time at AAA.
by Mark from OC on Oct 14, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll be fairly upset
with any scenario that doesn’t have us picking up some new, impact back in the 1B/DH/OF mix.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I will be very upset
But as a long-time Rangers fan, I have become rather used to being disappointed with the team.
The problem with the Rangers signing an impact 1B/DH/OF in my eyes is the ownership situation. Where is the current ownership going to get the money for signing bonuses? The only way I see this working is if they pay out the bonuses over time moreso than usual, which would result in the Rangers having to pay more for the players to accept this type of payment plan.
by Mark from OC on Oct 14, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
this team
will be nearly impossible to project going into next year. I honestly have no idea what to expect offensively from Young, Kinsler, Hamilton, Davis and Cruz. Andrus could make a jump, but its more likely he takes a step back in his second year (as many fantasy players can attest to). And what I expect from our catchers isn’t salivating in the least. I know its an absolute pipe dream, but I really wish this team could make a run at Holliday. I’d rather fill our pitching spots internally and spend every available cent (which may in fact be zero cents) on a true impact middle of the order hitter.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
I expect
at least one of Hamilton and Davis to be quite a bit better next year. Young won’t do that again (hover near .900 OPS), so hopefully the improvement from those two offsets his decline and then some.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Split the 2008 (.741) and 2009 (.892) OPS on Young for 2010...
And I’d be fine with that – it would be about .810. Just as long as he doesn’t regress to somewhere around .740ish.
by FuturePants on Oct 14, 2009 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
this team will be nearly impossible to project going into next year.
Very true, because we have no idea what/how much new ownership will spend/budget, but spend they will :)
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Evan thinks Byrd had a career year.
His cumulative stats agree but only bacause he played in 146 games this year. OPS+, wOBA and WAR all agree that 2009 was Byrd’s worse year with the Rangers.
|Space for Rent|
Byrd had a better year last year
but had more PT this year. He would be a great guy to have around for one year, but for 2-3 I think not so much.
Instead of 3 years to Byrd if you want to bring in a 1 year CF I’d almost look at Cameron, who would be more expensive for the year, but would also likely have a better bat and glove.
What do voluntary mean?
I think trading Cruz would necessitate
two trades this offseason if you dont sign Byrd. If you trade Cruz you arent going to find someone who has a better combo of skills, performance and contract as an OFer. If you do find someone who has potential you are probably looking at a much younger OF who doesnt have the performance record of Cruz but is much younger. I guess a good example would be trading him for Fernando Martinez (would that be fair). Martinez is younger perhaps has more potential but do you really expect him to have anything close to a .856 OPS next yr? There is a distinct possibility that he never does that.
I mean who or what type of player would you expect to acquire from a trade of Cruz? Pitcher? Thought we had plenty of those. IFer? Well SS, 3B, 2B are tied up. 1B? Well this means you have given up on CD and/or Smoak playing there. I dont think I would want to deal him for a primarily DH type because that spot needs to be open to shuttle CD/Smoak/Hamilton. So he would have to be part of a bigger deal for an ace type. No idea whom. I just think you would really lose value by trading him for a higher risk OF. If you do trade him as part of a larger deal you really have a hole in the lineup. That would need to be filled in the OF. The Rangers would seemingly have to make another trade to acquire a good bat in the OF. Would that OFer be anything close to Cruz defensively? Very small chance of that. Just blabbing i guess but these are many of the questions i have especially when this team seems to be taking Cruz for granted
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
Fortunately JD is the GM
If you trade Cruz you arent going to find someone who has a better combo of skills, performance and contract as an OFer
and not Ron Washington who only goes by what his gut sees and not results.
|Space for Rent|
Where did all this trade Cruz momentum come from?
The only reason I can see to trade Cruz is that if you believe 2009 was a career or peak year for him. If you believe that, then trade him for potentional, which really doesn’t help the Rangers be the contenders they should be in 2010.
Otherwise he needs to be a starting outfielder for the Rangers in 2010.
by Mark from OC on Oct 14, 2009 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
even if that is the peak of his potential
how many players will go 30/20 for you with good defense. Very few people have that capability in them. Then, if you think he can get better, there is definitely no way you trade him.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
"trade Cruz momentum"
He’s polarizing as a defensive player.
He’s older than Hank F (turns 30 next July).
He has never hit LH pitching in The Show which isn’t a good sign when you’re 30 years old.
He’s never had more value.
I’m on the fence about trading him but for the right deal I wouldn’t hesitate.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 14, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
It picked up steam around here about a month and a half ago
Why, I have no idea.
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Oct 14, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I did make a statement around then
Saying Cruz is the top prime trade bait the Rangers have. But there is no reason to trade him unless
- you really think he has peaked in performance OR
- another team overpays for him AND includes a major league starting outfielder to replace his bat in the lineup.
by Mark from OC on Oct 14, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I think it stems
from what seems to be Wash’s lack of faith in him coupled to the standard over reactive tendancies of the message board.
Cruz just seemed to stay in Wash’s dog house some. I mean we hit a weaker bat 4th while Cruz was batting 6th.
What do voluntary mean?
Kikuchi, Kikuchi, Kikuchi,
the one who’s hard to get.
Kikuchi, Kikuchi, Kikuchi,
but they could win him yet.
He’s going to meet with 12 NPB clubs and then 7 MLB clubs, including the Rangers, next week according to NPB Tracker.
http://www.npbtracker.com/2009/10/kikuchis-october-schedule/
The NPB draft is Oct. 29.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Goyo is slow to the trigger on this Kikuchi update.
Maybe his focus is the DR showcase, which I’m really looking forward to hearing about.
Between Kikuchi’s meetings and the DR showcase, we might get to hear of the Rangers inking a couple more international FAs in a week or so. That’ll help keep the offseason moving along for me.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
BtB AL West Power ranking review
8. Texas Rangers. TQI = 0.543
The Rangers battled all year, and ended up well shy of the Angels’ near-0.600 mark. In the power rankings, they essentially swapped spaces every other week, ending the season just shy of of the Angels’ mark. We actually estimated their cW% slightly below their actual winning percentage. Our runs scored estimate was 33 shy of reality. But we also estimated that they’d allow 14 runs fewer than they did, which keeps their cW% close to the actual mark. This is the first Rangers team I can remember that is built more for pitching and fielding than offense. Their hitters were just average, at least after park adjustments. But their pitching was also average, which, with their plus fielding, resulted in an above-average team.
The A’s came in 9th overall. They will probably be everyone’s choice to win the AL West next year.
|Space for Rent|
They are now the Fighting Washingtons.
As long as JD can figure out how to bring in a bash brother component to the Fighting Washingtons, I am not too concerned with the team’s transformation.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
Byrd is on with Norm right now.
Quick summary, his Agent and JD are already in talks trying to get a deal done. He really wants to stay in Texas and would potentially give Rangers a home town discount. (basically said if you want to stay in one specifically place sometimes you are willing to come down on your price.) He said length of contract is more important than the $ value, if its fair and staying in the place he wants is most important.
Will be interesting. At what point is signing Byrd worth it? 3 years 10M or 15M?? Is that even realistic
Elvis has "shook up" Arlington!!
I think his minimum is probably
3 years. JD might want to do 2 years plus an option. The earlier they get it done the more likely they end up overpaying. I think the FA market will be depressed agian this year.
|Space for Rent|
2 plus a team option
is fairly intriguing to me.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
depending on the cash involved
I might be ok with that, too.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Yeah,
it kind of all depends on what happens in the market. I suspect someone will offer him more than I would be willing to pay though.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I'd be very uncomfortable, though
if that was the only bat they “acquired”.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I have a hard time seeing Byrd getting 5 years on the market (like GMJ/Hunter did).
He seems kind of in between DeRosa and GMJ when they finished their Texas tenure. So, maybe go 3 with a 4th year option as high as 7M/yr. I think Byrd could get a 3-yr deal on the market, and it would be in the $24-27M, even if no one has money this offseason. There just aren’t many CF available, and, using a discount of recent salaries as a guide, Cameron made 10M last year, so look for contracts something like 8-9M per year. Tack on a 4th year option and knock a little money makes me think he could be signed at 3yr with a 4th year option at 6-7M per year.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
I think your smoking crack there
Byrd is an average CF on the down side of his career. I really doubt he gets 8-9 million a year. And if he does I damn sure hope its not us giving it to him. I don’t think hes been worth that amount while he’s been here, and I have no doubt he wouldn’t be worth it going forward.
What do voluntary mean?
I think 3/$15 is the best Byrd can hope for
I see zero chance that he’ll get anyone to offer 4 years or more. If he’ll take a 2 year deal, I could see him getting an extra million or so per year, as opposed to a 3 year deal.
by twinkilling on Oct 14, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
I could see
3 years at 6 million with a locking option in the fourth from some team, hopefully not us. But I do think 18-20 million is absolutely the max value for Byrd.
If he would sign for 4 million a year, which I really doubt, I’d go ahead and give him 3 years guranteed. And just hope that when he starts his decline that Wash is smart enough to see it and scale back his PT.
What do voluntary mean?
Any time someones .ops in a particular lineup spot is the crux of an argument
Its a bad argument.
the preceding post was a great success.
One thing about Justin Smoak
He’s weaker as a right-handed hitter, and has been going back to his college days.
So if we’re waiting for Justin Smoak to help cure our vulnerability to LHP’s, we’re going to be sorely disappointed. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still exactly the kind of bat we need and we shouldn’t trade him unless we can recoup the same kind of cheap, patient bat from somewhere else, but the guy can’t hit LHP’s either.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
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