Buzz Bissinger Bitchin Bout Billy Beane (and Moneyball)
I don’t think Moneyball is the greatest, most influential book in baseball history. Nor do I think it’s a bunch of nonsense. The idea that capitalizing on undervalued assets could help small market teams was interesting and it was interesting to see how someone did so (or tried to do so). I enjoy intelligent critiques of Moneyball and this is not one of them.
Against Moneyball (Buzz Bissinger)
http://www.tnr.com/article/against-moneyball?page=0,0
Whatever happens in the National League and American League Championship series unfolding over the next week or so, one outcome has already been decided--the effective end of the theories of Moneyball as a viable way to build a playoff-caliber baseball team when you don't have the money. . . . [B]ut all you need to do is keep in mind one number this postseason: 528,620,438. That's the amount of money in payroll spent this season by the teams still in it--the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Angels, the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
So what is “a viable way to build a playoff-caliber baseball team when you don’t have the money”? /reads further/. Oh, you don’t have one. Your point in this column is that it’s easier to make the playoffs when you have oodles of money. That’s…not very insightful.
The sabermetricians, unloved and unwanted for so long, scorned by the baseball men brotherhood for their nerdy obsessions, fell to their knees like attendees at a revival: Finally someone understood them.
Right – the only way to understand the game is if you played it. Waaaait, Buzz is 4 ½ feet tall. Why is he talking about baseball?
The explanation was dazzling, although Lewis barely mentioned the three reasons the A's had been so successful--pitchers Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. The three won an astounding 149 games during that span. Each of them were 20-game winners in at least one of those seasons. The odds of three young pitchers coming together like that on one team was basically a matter of baseball luck.
That’s an interesting point. Thank you for adding some information.
Beane had seven first-round draft picks that year, each of them extolled by Lewis for their buried-treasure status. Three of them are still playing in the majors [who?], none with anything close to superstar careers and all of them long gone from the A's. Three others were busts [who?]. . . . His theory that only college pitchers should be drafted over high school ones because of their experience sounded plausible. But it flew in the face of the Atlanta Braves, who won their division 14 years in a row from 1991 to 2005, and relied on pitchers drafted straight out of high school all the while [who?].
I retract me previous compliment. Sure, I could look this information up, but isn't that the journalist's job (three are Swisher, Blanton and Teahen)? Or more importantly the columnist who's trying to make a point/convince me of something? Why throw out three guy's names and refuse to name any others? "Beane's 7 draft pickes really sucked that year." "Who were they?" "Oh, you know - those guys." "No." "Trust me, they fucking sucked."
Beane was also flippant, especially to the ears of anyone who'd ever faced the Yankees' Mariano Rivera in the postseason, about how there was no need to pay exorbitantly for a closer because just about anyone could close--but then he traded away one of his vaunted draft picks [who?] for a reliever who turned out to be lousy anyway [who?].
What I don’t get is the point of this column. Is it that Lewis glossed over things in his book, like Zito, Hudson and Mulder, that detract from the theme? Or is it that high payrolls equal success? Maybe it’s the latter.
For the four teams in the championship series this year, parsimony is not a problem. Each ranked in the top ten in baseball payroll. All of them topped the $100 million mark and the Yankees went over $200 million.
Gotcha – teams with big payrolls win. Let’s just double check that to make sure I (and Buzz) am not glossing over anything. OK, last season at issue in Moneyball was 2002 so let’s start there:
2002: Angels – 15th highest payroll in baseball (about the middle);
2003: Marlins – 25th;
2004: Red Sox – 2nd;
2005: White Sox – 13th;
2006: Cardinals – 11th;
2007: Red Sox – 2nd;
2008: Phillies – 12th.
In 2009, the remaining 4 teams are all in the top 10. For the past 7 years, only twice has a team in the top 10 won the WS. And in 2008, the top three payrolls (Yankees, Mets and Tigers) all missed the playoffs with the Tigers finishing dead last in their division.
Maybe the point of column is that Buzz just doesn’t like Beane (or Lewis).
Since Beane has compared himself to J.D. Salinger, just wanting to fade away, maybe the best thing for him to do is retire and write a book about how, in the end, it all really didn't work.
I think that’s it.
Here's my issue. Some people rail on Lewis/Beane/Moneyball claiming it is now a failure but that's not the point. Everyone's trying to make more out of less in every profession and this book explained how it was being done in baseball. Lewis probably took some liberties by trying to show that Beane was on the cutting edge but I'm guessing lots of teams were doing it. Red Sox held onto Youk the entire time. I just find it odd that a very good sports writer takes time out of his day to poorly bitch about an interesting sports book while taking to time to bitch about geeks in their basements.
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Comments
Is that the sound your significant other makes
when you deflate her?
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Oct 20, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lifeless journalism need not be written
only by robots.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 20, 2009 7:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
x
I don’t think Moneyball is the greatest, most influential book in baseball history.
So you’re not a dstar sock puppet then? Wheeeeew.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Oct 20, 2009 7:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would not
be a baseball fan now if not for Moneyball.
As to whether or not I still regard the philosophy as highly as I did… well…
I’m surprised you remembered that.
I LOVE THE RANGERS!!!
by dstar442005 on Oct 21, 2009 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your conservative political stances, your love of moneyball
And your wacky opinions about guys like Luke French are the three things that I will always remember you for.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Oct 22, 2009 1:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Moneyball may have showed
teams with the money how to spend their money better.
I LOVE THE RANGERS!!!
by dstar442005 on Oct 21, 2009 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i.e.
Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers.
not the Angels
I LOVE THE RANGERS!!!
by dstar442005 on Oct 21, 2009 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You get a rec
for alliteration in the title. I laughed when I saw that.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 20, 2009 10:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I read that article the other day
and I kind of disagree with you on the anger that it induces in you. Yeah, it doesn’t really bring anything new to the table, but the article does summarize pretty well the argument that the book shouldn’t be on the pedestal that some people put it on.
I like to break things down into components; nothing is black and white. Multiple factors dictate reaching the playoffs. Money is a big one, probably the biggest. Organizational strategy is big, obviously. And then there is luck. To minimize any of these components, which people often do, is foolish. Money isn’t everything, but it is a huge factor. Strategy alone won’t win you anything, but it helps. And Luck is extremely important. Moneyball, Bissinger, and everyone else try to narrow it down to “which is the most important,” and that is wrong.
Moneyball described Beane’s way of trying to minimize the money component by using a strategy that is unique in the game. You could just as easily write a book about how the Marlins have minimized the money component by maximizing the noise (Luck component) associated with their club (continuously trading good players for prospects with no real strategy) and winning the world series twice. Relying on luck isn’t a great strategy though, look at other teams who have tried the same thing. But you can use the Twins, who probably do the A’s thing better than the A’s since they actually develop good players.
The problem with Moneyball wasn’t Moneyball itself, but it was the use of the A’s as the example and the glorification of Beane, who is flawed*. The article misses the point and blames Lewis instead.
- Why I think Beane is flawed in the money/strategy/luck framework: Beane fights “luck” and “noise” because he can’t control it as much as he fights money. I’d argue that for a small market club you HAVE to have luck and noise to get past the teams with a lot more money. Only with $$$ can you afford stability. Accept that relying on noise will allow you to do well only 1 in 3 years. But in that 1 in 3, you have a chance to actually win. Beane is a control freak and can’t accept that though.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Oct 21, 2009 9:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
the Marlins have minimized the money component by maximizing the noise (Luck component) associated with their club (continuously trading good players for prospects with no real strategy)
Noise and luck? No real strategy? C’mon.
by NoNameOnCard on Oct 21, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously I'm exagerrating to make a point
But people always underestimate the role luck and noise play in baseball. A suggestion that a team won due to luck always gets dismissed as an insult (just like you took offense to it). On the contrary, I’m saying that systematically planning every facet of your team with highly predictable players will only get you so far. For a team like the Marlins, or the A’s, or the Rays, or the Rangers, the deck is stacked against you. The rich teams are going to get the premier free agents – the one source of very reliable returns on investment. If you want to somehow be more productive than them, you have to get lucky. Either lucky through drafts, or lucky through signing guys who figured something out, or lucky in trades.
The A’s system (or the Beane system) is to opt for low variance, highly predictable players. Of course, those players don’t have much value else they’d be really expensive. So you either find a market inefficiency (i.e., OBP ten years ago) or you’re screwed. Variance is the path to success in an efficient market that dominates you – out of 30 data points, increasing your variance will occasionally make you the best. At some point, you just have to throw the dice and hope that a seven hits.
So yeah, I’m wrong to say the Marlins had no strategy. They did – they went and got cheap high potential, high risk players through the draft and free agents and hoped to get lucky. And they did. Twice.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Oct 21, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They bought their first World Series.
They had one of the highest (if not the highest) payroll in baseball in 1997.
Also, I reject the idea that free agents are “the one source of very reliable returns on investment.”
by NoNameOnCard on Oct 21, 2009 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said premier free agents
I think the average free agent is very unreliable. But a lot of what you are paying for in the top tier (the Teixeira, ARod, Sabathia category) is reliability.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Oct 21, 2009 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I'll admit I was wrong about the '97 Marlins
I was thinking luck since they struck gold with a Kevin Brown people had thought was kind of washed up and Sheffield, who was a great pickup early on for them. But I honestly completely blocked Alex Fernandez from my mind…
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Oct 21, 2009 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I made a similar argument the other day.....
with a RedSox homer……basically Tampa/Toronto, etc will have maybe 3 years out of every 10 to have a chance to actually win…..Tampa (especially) can’t afford to keep the #1’s who do hit for very long. Also, they can’t expect them all to hit at the same time very often……recently they’ve had a good run as a lot of those high picks hit together, along with a couple of trades & one big (if lucky) signing, Pena…..but they can’t sustain it for long, so they take their shot, then know they’ll have a few down years before they can cycle back around, a fate the Yankees & Boston don’t have to fear.
Big money teams can make a mistake (the Angel’s deal for Kazmir for $20M started this argument….why wasn’t Texas in on him?) for multi-millions, while the rest can not and have to be a bit ‘lucky’ with lesser risks.
Oh well, way longer than anticipated….Sorry!
by tklawless on Oct 21, 2009 12:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I miss FJM.com
"There is the Vegetarian Hot Pocket for those of us who don't want to eat meat, but would still like diarrhea." Jim Gaffigan
by Suicide Prince on Oct 21, 2009 12:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No need.
You have about 4 guys here who fancy themselves staff writers.
by brettgardner on Oct 21, 2009 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Heh
Only 4?
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Oct 21, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bissinger has been quite the cranky bastard for awhile
Ever since he ripped off George Will w/ his LaRussa book and acted like he reinvented the wheel, I’ve half hated the guy.
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Oct 21, 2009 9:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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