Total Zone says Nelson Cruz is a great defender
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2009 12:22 PM CDT
111 comments
Over at THT, Sean Smith takes MLBAM's Ball in Play data and runs the numbers for Total Zone calculations for every player in the majors, and lists the top 15 in the majors.
The second-best defender in the major leagues -- at any position -- is Nelson Cruz, at +23, behind only Seattle's Franklln Gutierrez.
This jumps out at me because of the sharp divide between the stats and the reputation, when it comes to Nelson Cruz's defensive abilities.
One of the most common refrains you heard from the D/FW baseball media has been that Cruz has to be better defensively, that Ron Washington doesn't trust him in right field and that while his bat was solid, his defense may cost him a regular job in Texas. This is commonly echoed by the fans, who claim that he's a "butcher" based on poor routes, with Mike Rhyner going so far this summer as to say that he's the worst defensive outfielder the Rangers have had in years.
And yet, just about all the advanced defensive stats say Cruz is terrific defensively. UZR and +/- have him as well above-average, along with Total Zone. If you look at Revised Zone Rating, Cruz is middle of the pack defensively among right fielders, but when you incorporate the "Out Of Zone" component that goes with that (tracking balls Cruz made plays on that are outside of his regular zone), Cruz jumps up to the top of the pack.
Will Carroll talked, at Newberg Night, about how the teams have defensive stats that are superior to the "off the shelf" stuff that we fans have access to. And it may be that the Rangers' proprietary data shows that Cruz is terrible.
And yet...the Rangers went from being one of the worst defensive teams in the majors last season, in terms of balls being turned into outs, to one of the best in 2009. And it isn't all a result of Elvis Andrus.
We know that centerfield wasn't good defensively in 2009. We know that third base was, at best, average, likely worse. Shortstop and second base were very good, first base was okay. But it doesn't seem that outrageous to suggest that right field was one of the areas that contributed significantly to the Rangers' terrific run prevention in 2009.
Defensive stats are still imperfect...I have a lot less confidence in what the advanced defensive stats than in the advanced offensive stats, and I think triangulating between the various methods that incorporate ball-in-play data is necessary to get a handle on what is happening.
But I really struggle with the idea that a guy who came to Texas with a reputation for being a stellar defensive right fielder, and who the advanced stats all show was a great defensive right fielder in 2009, is in fact a defensive liability who is dragging the team down out there.
It is a not insignificant difference. if Cruz is a great fielder, then the Rangers probably need to plan on him staying in right field for 2010. If he isn't, then the Rangers are better off shopping him to a team that is looking for a cheap young power hitter, and looking for an upgrade in right, be it with Josh Hamilton or someone outside the organization.
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*waits for people to come in here
and cite some of the boneheaded plays he seems to have towards the end of the year.
Let’s judge everyone by errors since it’s such a great metric guy.
Elvis Andrus sucks at defending. He made 22 errors this year.
You’re turn guys.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 24, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Uh
There aren’t many people on here who judge defense based on errors or fielding percentage.
by LiamP on Oct 24, 2009 12:46 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
It was
a joke. Apparently one that went over your head.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 24, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or
It was a poorly worded and unfunny attempt. That’s my vote.
LoneStarBall....You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
by DaheelzCM on Oct 24, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn't so to be 'haha' funny.
Quit looking too much into it.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 24, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a pet peeve I have
I hate it when someone says something stupid, gets called on it, and then claims it was a joke.
LoneStarBall....You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
by DaheelzCM on Oct 24, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But it was a joke
not a good one, but one nonetheless.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 24, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no
it really wasn’t a joke. quit trying to cover.
waits for people to come in here
and cite some of the boneheaded plays he seems to have towards the end of the yea
there aren’t a lot of people that are going to do that either.
"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)
by ab03 on Oct 24, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quite a few people did that
during the regular season. Happened more often than you think.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 24, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A very vocal minority
Makes it seem like there are more that would do that than actually do.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And now the vocal point of that poor attempt at a joke has just
entered the room. See: Mr. Josey Wales.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 24, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My theory on Cruz
is that he is very good going side to side, good going back but has trouble with balls in front of him. Does he play a little too deep in RF? As for his routes, I think much is being made about nothing.
Joey has some goos comments over at BBTiA.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 24, 2009 12:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i know cruz's numbers are backed up by other stats
but, as that article points out, Total Zone rated Andrus and Aybar slightly above average. That can’t be right
"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)
by ab03 on Oct 24, 2009 12:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i give defensive statistics about the same credibility as bigfoot sightings
but personally i think cruz is a slightly above average defender with the potential to be great.
by blakethegr8 on Oct 24, 2009 12:44 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
i don't get this line of thinking
all defensive metrics are the same and suck? can that possibly be what you are saying.
at it’s heart, a defensive metric is somewhat easy. you track every chance a fielder has and then figure out if he should have gotten to the ball. The problem is that nobody is watching every play and every fielder so they have to use approximations. But a team could certainly track its own fielders. No reason why team metrics should be wrong – unless they are just grading Cruz on a really hard curve.
I wonder if Cruz doesn’t position himself correctly or if the team feels like he sleeps on assignments.
"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)
by ab03 on Oct 24, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, have we really heard the club say Cruz is a bad fielder?
I’d hate to conclude that the club’s proprietary systems grade Cruz poorly based on the ramblings and rantings of one Rohn Warshington, who tends to be removed from reality on occasion with regard to his players anyway.
"Feldman and Feliz and and pray for…infectious disease?"--TheJeezus on Sep 9, 2009 1:01 PM PDT
by WestTxAg06 on Oct 24, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not directly
but there has been some severe underrating of cruz in the local media, which one might suspect is partially due to information provided by team sources. this is somewhat speculative but it wouldnt surprise me if there were elements in the front office who are not high on cruz, in particular his defense.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Oct 24, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe one of those guys was Mel Dider
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree with the conclusion:
If Cruz is a great fielder, then the Rangers probably need to plan on him staying in right field for 2010. If he isn’t, then the Rangers are better off shopping him to a team that is looking for a cheap young power hitter.
So the only way the Rangers should keep him is if he is a “great” fielder? And I know a team that’s looking for a cheap power hitter – the Rangers.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Oct 24, 2009 1:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If you look at him as a defensive liability...
…he probably has more value as a trade chip than he does staying with the Rangers as, say, a DH.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference between being "great" and a "liability" is probably pretty vast
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Oct 24, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You come across defeatist when you keep implying "defensive liability" is the only alternative to "great fielder".
The defensive metrics say he’s great. Fine. I don’t trust them absolutely because they conflict with what I and many others see.
My eyes from watching on TV and going to 10 or so games this year say he gets out of position often and scrambles to recover on plays. Maybe his athleticism is covering up some poor defensive practices and the team sees that.
I think he’s a good athlete that under-performs in right field. Compared to others he’s slightly above average. Compared to his ability, he’s well below potential.
by 3hacks on Oct 24, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh, I hate the "my eyes say"
argument. Your eyes are not trained to recognize any of this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 24, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's idiotic.
Why do scouts attend games to watch prospects, potential trade targets, opponents.
It’s not just about defensive stats, and it’s not jay about scouting. There isn’t a perfect stat out there for offense or defense. In combination with “my eyes,” stats are worthwhile.
by 3hacks on Oct 24, 2009 3:53 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Are you a scout?
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Magnum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Oct 24, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not a very useful question.
You don’t need to be a scout to know what scout’s look at/for.
by NoNameOnCard on Oct 24, 2009 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't we just come to the conclusion
that Nelson Cruz has very good range with an exceptional arm but also does a lot of very stupid shit in the OF?
Misplaying a ball in the corner v Oakland in early August and then stumbling so badly that you sprain an ankle that puts you out of the line-up for 15 days qualifies as “stupid shit.”
Various episodes of defensive stupidity were a constant with Cruz this season so quit trying to insinuate that he’s the second coming of Roberto Clemente.
He has exceptional physical tools but isn’t a very smart player.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 24, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I missed where he invoked the name of Roberto Clemente
"Feldman and Feliz and and pray for…infectious disease?"--TheJeezus on Sep 9, 2009 1:01 PM PDT
by WestTxAg06 on Oct 24, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
notion of trading Nelson Cruz is getting really annoying. He was by far our best power hitter last year and trading him won’t improve our offense.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
by coolaid on Oct 24, 2009 1:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd support Joey's take
Not only is he big, but he also has a quick and long stride, which makes it look a little choppy. And I recall Elvis Andrus in an interview saying that he isn’t the fastest Ranger, it’s either Cruz or Hamilton, and that the “big guys can really move it”.
He isn’t Ussain Bolt, but he’s pretty close to Alberto Juantorena, another big guy with exceptional in-line speed. Anyway, when it comes to converting batted balls that normally go for hits or XBH into outs, Cruz is pretty damned good.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 24, 2009 1:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
x
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 24, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 24, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Josh trying to interupt Tom's story
to comment on that play
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Oct 24, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who is htat #32 playing
CF in that game? :)
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 24, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I asked JD at Newberg Night about the club's defensive stats
I believe his answer was pretty much that the stats/calculations they look at aren’t too far off from the top defensive metrics out there. I have a feeling that most of the anti-Cruz talk is just from Wash and that the front office is aware of how good Cruz is defensively. And maybe Wash is just doing some weird motivation to get Cruz to be even better and avoid those few misreads that people focus on. Until he’s traded away or is moved out of a starting OF spot, I’m going to continue having faith in the front office that saw enough in Cruz to trade for him in the first place and just saw their initial opinion on him come true.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 2:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wash's strange handling of Cruz is my only big beef with him.
Cruz is a really, really good RF defender and a solid hitter.
He should be written into the lineup every single day in fucking ink, but for whatever reason it really does seem like Wash doesn’t think he’s all that good.
I can’t figure it out.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Beware 2011: The Fortypocalypse is Nigh...
by thedirkatron on Oct 24, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except he can't hit LHs
in The Show.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 24, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
“Hasn’t” hit LHers in the majors. He’s proven he can hit LHers in the minors, but you knew that.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Oct 24, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He turns 30 years old next year and
and has never hit LH pitching in The Show (other than his 30 something ab’s he had in 2008).
When he had bad seasons in The Show, he didn’t hit LH pitching.
When he had a good season in The Show, he didn’t hit LH pitching.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 24, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll agree with all of that if you'll agree with this
He’s hit LHP in the minors.
It’s unusual for a player to have reverse splits.
Conclusion: it’s more likely than not that he’ll hit LHP in the majors.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Oct 24, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats not the conclusion though
This isn’t a 24 year old rookie. This is a guy whos gonna be 30 years old and over a fairly large sample size has shown little to no competancy to hit LHP in the majors.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 24, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Such a stupid argument
He’s only had one year of success in the Majors vs. about a year’s worth of playing time where he hit poorly. So of course, looking at the overall numbers will reflect that he can’t LHPs in the Majors because he didn’t have much success against them in his only full season while he was able to do so against RHPs. In 2006, he hit RHPs worse than LHPs. In 2007, it was the opposite. In 2008, he again had more success against LHPs than RHPs. Throughout his minor league career, he has shown no reverse split. There is simply no real evidence that he is one of the few players in baseball that has a significant reverse split.
Also, Cruz is a special case. While he isn’t some 24 year old rookie, you still need to remember that he never really got into baseball until he was 18. He clearly hit his stride later than most players being 28/29 when he finally started getting it. You can’t write him off saying that he will never improve on a weakness when all he has done as a Ranger is correct his flaws.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz has more than 1100 plate appearances in The Show
turns 30 years old next year and has never consistenly shown the ability to hit LH pitching in The Show.
Maybe he can turn it around v LHP but hoping (JD’s big strategy last year) he’s going to do it next year is foolish.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 24, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Nelson Cruz War is over
Why won’t you just let it go?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz has 347 plate appearances v LH pitching
in The Show.
What number of plate appearances v LH pitching in The Show is required to form an opinion on Cruz?
Show your work.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 24, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have an opinion on Cruz
Its that he can hit LH pitching and that last year was more a fluke than an inability ot hit LHPs.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has over 3000 PAs in the minors
And those show that he can hit LH pitching. The only way your theory holds is if, for whatever reason, he always faced inferior LHPers as compared to RHPers in the minors. If you can prove that feel free.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Oct 24, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
could you please remind us all what your take was on Nelson Cruz
prior to this season?
According to the search function, you have said…
that you “have a better feeling about Teagarden and Boggs than Nelson Cruz”and even went so far as to say “Nelson Cruz will never cut it in the show”
also called him “the ultimate $ 100 million airport with the $ 100 control tower”
and you have also referred to him as “the very failed Nelson Cruz (who was given waaaaaaay too many chances to succeed only because JD was desperate to show success).”
Your opinion on Nelson Cruz has been proven to be so far off-base that I really don’t see how you’d expect anyone to listen to anything you have to say about him. The player proved you to be quite unsophisticated in your baseball takes. Face that fact and move on.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
by tricer on Oct 24, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm shocked...
that he didn’t respond to this post.
Shocked, I tell you.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Oct 24, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tricer,
What did I have to say about Cruz just before 2009 started?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 24, 2009 11:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
If Cruz turns it around and hits LHP consider it a bonus. But to plan on it would be dumb. Hes shown he cannot hit major league left handed pitching.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 24, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the new hitting coach
will straighten him out. :)
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 24, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Congrats, you agree with Josey Wales' logic
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its not bad logic
If some of yall would get past the fact that it comes from Josey you would realize its a solid logical theory. Josey has his warts but he does actually have some intelligent things to say every now and then
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 24, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it isn't
He’s got nothing in his past to suggest that he’s a hitter with an inherent reverse platoon split.
He may not hit next year, but to expect him to hit RHPs but not LHPs is silly.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many plate appearances does it take the guy
Again if we were talking about a 24 or 25 year old I could understand the argument a little. But at his age with almost 350 career plate appearances against LHP (150 of which came last year in his only successful MLB season) to say what hes done in his past is gonna change makes no sense to me. Excuse me for a second if I take his minor league numbers with a small grain of salt. It took him 4 chances at the majors before he had a good season when he had always crushed minor league pitching. Nothing Cruz had done up until this past season had ever translated to the majors so I don’t see the reason to cite any kind of split as an indicator of future success for him.
If he hits LHP next year…great. But to expect it or anticipate it based on his minors numbers is dumb IMO.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 24, 2009 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In that case...
…to expect or anticipate he’ll hit in the majors at all next year would be dumb.
There’s no reason to believe, based on his history — which indicates, both in the majors and in the minors, that he doesn’t have a dramatic reverse-platoon split — that what happened last year was anything other than a random fluctuation over a small sample size. I think you’d be hard-pressed to find a half-dozen successful major league hitters who consistently had a significant reverse-platoon split.
If you want to say that Cruz can’t be counted on because prior to last season he never hit in the majors, that’s fine.
But if you want to say he can be expected to hit RHPs but not LHPs next year…well, that defies logic.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im not saying anything at all about RHP
But for whatever reason Nelson Cruz has not shown an ability to hit LHP in the major leagues and we are past the small sample size argument. He has shown in the minors he can but it has not translated to the majors. To expect or anticipate that at the age of 30 it will all of a sudden flip around and he will start hitting LHP is dumb IMO.
I have no idea what to expect from Cruz next year. Part of me thinks that with a winter of rest he could come back and be one of the better offensive OFs in baseball hitting both RHP and LHP. But theres also a part that thinks we may have seen the peak of Cruz and without playing baseball year round he is going to fall back into the way he was his first few years here where the talent was there but the results weren’t. I just don’t know.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 24, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me ask this
Let’s say that, in 2009, Cruz was great on the road but posted a 725 OPS at home.
Would you argue that it would be dumb to anticipate or expect that he’d hit well at home in 2010?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean like Ian Kinsler?
3 of his 4 seasons he has posted OPS of between 670 and 675 on the road while crushing balls at home. HE had one season (2008) where he was about even at both.
Yes I think it would be dumb to anticipate Kinsler to hit well on the road next year. IS it an unusual split? It sure as hell is. BUt hes shown it for long enough to make me believe its not an anomoly for him as much as it is his norm
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 25, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it is an unusual split
TBIA is a hitter’s park, and hitters generally hit better at home than on the road. And Kinsler’s lengthy history of doing significantly better at TBIA than on the road has meaning.
I don’t understand why you flipped this around, though, and refused to answer my question. I specifically used the example of someone who hit much worse, for one season, at TBIA than on the road.
I did that because that sort of split is the opposite of one would expect. I think you’d be hard pressed to find any Ranger hitters who were consistently better on the road than at TBIA. Similarly, you’d be hard-pressed to find many RH hitters who consistently are better against RHPs than against LHPs.
I realize the Kinsler example is better for you in trying to bolster your argument, but it has nothing to do with the Cruz situation.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hitting well at home / road
is completely different than hitting well v RH/LH pitching. The sleight of hand ploy is appreciated, though.
What age does Nelson Cruz have to reach and what number of plate appearances does he have to receive before we’re allowed to say, “he can’t hit LH pitching”?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 25, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's called applying a rule to different facts.
Spotting a difference doesn’t end the analysis.
by brettgardner on Oct 25, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tell me
How many successful RH major league hitters have significant reverse platoon splits?
How many of those players had no platoon splits throughout their minor league career, and through their first few major league seasons, but suddenly had them permanently show up in their late 20s?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus Christ man
Nobody is saying this is normal.
But to completely disregard what Cruz has done in the major leagues and rely solely on the argument that its not normal is stupid.
Unusual shit happens all the time. Not everything goes according to plan and according to what history suggest should happen.
For someone who relies on numbers so god damn often listening to you completely disregard Cruz’s numbers in the major leagues against LHP is baffling. No its not normal but its what is happening and has happened often enough that to be expecting something different is gonna lead to disappointment.
I would much rather expect his normal line to happen and be glad when he improves upon it rather than expect him to do something he has never done before all of a sudden do at the age of 30.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 25, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I realize a RH batter not being able to hit a LHP very well is not normal
But Cruz has shown it to be the case for him. Expecting him to all of a sudden reverse that split is dumb IMO. Can he reverse it and hit LHP next year….sure he could. But to expect it and throw his entire ML career out the window and say you expect it is dumb.
Minor league splits only has info on Kinsler from 2005 in AAA. But there he hit about the same at home and away. TBIA has not been the hitters park you make it out to be especially for RH hitters. To see the huge huge difference in home and road is not normal. Yes a guy probably does hit better at home but with Kinsler we are talking 250-300 point OPS differences. Thats not normal. But he has shown it is for him.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 25, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
x
But Cruz has shown it to be the case for him. Expecting him to all of a sudden reverse that split is dumb IMO. Can he reverse it and hit LHP next year….sure he could. But to expect it and throw his entire ML career out the window and say you expect it is dumb.
HE DIDN’T HIT ANYONE IN THE MAJORS HIS FIRST FEW YEARS!!!
I don’t understand why this is so hard to get.
The guy didn’t hit in the majors before 2008. Lefties, righties, it didn’t matter. I don’t understand why you and Josey — who are the only ones pushing this meme — just refuse to acknowledge this.
If you think he sucks and is worthless, say so. But to sit there and claim that, well, the revelation he had that has resulted in him having a breakthrough offensively only works against RHPs, not LHPs, when there are virtually no RH hitters in the majors who consistently have reverse platoon splits, is asinine.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly he didn't hit anyone in the majorshis first few years
Had he not hit anyone in the minors before last year? No he has crushed in the minors. So that means maybe not everything for him translates to the majors.
DId you expect him to do what he did this year going into the season? Because expecting it based on his past performance would have been a stretch. But he did it.
So am I gonna expect him to reverse a trend he has shown he can’t do? No but im not ruling it out. If that means hes an unusual case so be it. Not everyone is made in a cookie cutter mold and do everything according to what history suggests. Not being able to see that as a possibility is dumb.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 25, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me pose this question
Rank these three things in order of likelihood of occurrence in 2010, from most likely to least likely:
1) Cruz doesn’t hit well
2) Cruz hits well, with normal platoon splits
3) Cruz hits RHPs well, doesn’t hit LHPs well
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
3,2,1
What age does Cruz have to reach and how many plate appearances in The Show v LH pitching does he need to receive before we can conclusively say he can’t hit LH pitching in The Show?
I think it’s also really dumb to compare NCruz to “the normal major league player.” Suddenly finding it at the age of 29 isn’t normal at all (especially when you have a .261 obp as a 26 year old), meaning normal projections should not be applied to Nelson Cruz.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 25, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He never had reverse platoon splits
He does in 2009, so you and bigsteve throw out everything he’s down prior to 2009, his entire major and minor league performance to date, along with what just about every RH hitter in major league history have done, and are willing to declare — based on one year’s worth of data — that Nelson Cruz is that incredibly rare RH hitter who has an inherent reverse platoon split.
And — most importantly — who has this reverse platoon split only when facing major league hitters, not when facing minor leaguers.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its not about reverse splits
Its his inability to hit LHP. He couldn’t in the majors in 2006, 2007, and 2009. In 2008 in a month of action he did hit them. I don’t know about Josey but I haven’t focused on his RHP batting yet. Thats completely different for me. Im focusing solely on his inability to hit LHP which is not something that only happened last year. I don’t care what he did in the minors because for the past three years all we heard was how Nelson Cruz crushed the minors and he had never translated that to the majors. Im going off what hes done in the majors. And that so far has been to not hit LHP.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 25, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2.3.1
Little exists to suggest anything but some normlization on both splits and BABIP. The whole sag versus LHP was originally a complaint that Wash tended to platoon him according to traditional splits, not seeming to recognize he was having a LHP valley.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 25, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
3,2,1
Cruz showed last year he could hit well. He also showed he couldn’t hit LHP. He showed previously he couldn’t hit LHP. So for him to continue that would be most likely IMO.
Having him continue to hit well and improve his platoon splits to normal would be next likely because yes RH batters SHOULD be able to hit LHP better.
And him not hitting well at all is least likely. Ive bought into him. I was skeptical going into last year based on the fact that every other time he had been given a shot to play everyday he had tanked. Are there areas I would like to see him improve…sure. But I believe he will hit well next year.
I don’t however anticipate or expect him to improve on a trend he has shown, which is not being able to hit LHP. If he does i’ll be like I was this year…pleasantly surprised. But if he continues to follow that trend and not hit its not a letdown and thus not that big a deal
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 25, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can't "plan" on anything in baseball
All you can do is take a player’s history and general historical data to create predictions. In this case we have:
- Cruz hitting LHP in the minors just fine
- Cruz not hitting LHP in the majors in his first full season or in his career
- historical data indicates that players normally do not hit reverse splits
I’m not going to “plan” on Cruz hitting LHPers (whatever that means) but I sure as hell am going to predict it because that’s the more likely outcome. How is this so difficult to understand?
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Oct 24, 2009 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Somebody said his BABIP vs. LHP was like .250 this year
If so it’s not going to stay that way.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 24, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
.245 BABIP against LHPs
.293 BABIP against RHPs
He had a better walk rate against LHPs, but lower ISO.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2009 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
those numbers seem to indicate
that Cruz numbers next year could be quite a bit better than 09. I’d fucking hate to see that happen for some other team.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
by tricer on Oct 24, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if its 'figuring it out'
But Cruz is everything Wash wasn’t. Big. Strong. Power hitter. Not a bunter in situational play. Might overrun a grounder. Arm. Physically gifted. Relies on athletic ability more than learned skills. “Not like me”.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Oct 24, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither Wash nor Cruz
would qualify as a Baseball Mensa.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Oct 24, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wash
Ben Broussard passed the eye test and Cruz does not. The gut and eyes are directly connected.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 24, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With the way Wash's evaluation skills are
Whenever he says the word, “gut” all I think of is the rectum.
by TRanger on Oct 24, 2009 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz
Some 2009 stats:
Highest ISO for any RFer
3rd highest in HR/AB in AL
8th most HRs in AL
121 OPS+
9th highest OPS for any qualified RFer
Even if Cruz is only an average defensive player he’s a solid starter.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Oct 24, 2009 2:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
and if the numbers are true
and he is one of the best defensive outfielders, which I think he is. Then, with the whole package, he is a top 10 OFer in all of baseball — easily
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Oct 24, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets not get carried away
He had a good year and would need 2 or 3 more like kast year to be considered a top 10 OF.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 24, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be considered around the league, yes.
To actually be that valuable, it only takes one season.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a big fan of defensive stats...
But I know that these metrics are not entirely without merit. Those numbers combined with watching him out there for several seasons now tell me that Cruz is a very talented defender that has the ability to be great. However, on a semi regular basis he makes awful, boneheaded plays that the vast majority of major league outfielders almost never make. Overall, therefore, he is an average to slightly above average defender in my eyes. Not god-awful, but in no way is he great.
by disposablehero on Oct 24, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Like was said above
Your eyes are simply not trained to definitively come to that conclusion. First, your view of the play as a whole is poor. Watching on TV especially makes this more difficult since you are only seeing Cruz in the middle of a play. You’re also stating that he makes mistakes that the “vast majority of Major League outfielder almost never make”? How many plays in a season do you watch where the ball goes towards to RF? How many times do you see a RF avoid the mistake that Cruz makes on the exact same type of ball given the same conditions?
I’ve seen Cruz make some mistakes in RF. There are times when he seems to get a poor read on the ball and other times where its just a simple mental mistake on how he should have handled a ball bouncing towards him. That doesn’t make him less than great, only above average, horrible, or w/e your opinion is on Cruz’s defense. The point of defensive metrics like +/-, UZR, etc. is that they take those poor plays into account and measure them against the average RF. Then those stats do what the Cruz doubters seem to never do. They take into account the number of plays he makes that the average RF doesn’t make. You’ve done the exact same thing in your post. You are saying that Cruz is in no way great simply because of the mistakes he’s made. If the mistakes he’s made cost you a few singles, lets some runners advance to second/third on a misplay, and maybe even lets some runners score on the mistake. But if his defense out there in RF can also prevent runners from trying to advance to second or third base, prevent LD singles, prevent the runner from trying to tag up to make it home, and so on.
There’s a lot of positives Cruz brings to the table that some wrongfully believe do not outweigh the mistakes he’s made and it looks like this is the biggest difference between the stats and the “scouts”.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 24, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone who is making opinions of a players defense
based on what they see on TV is … misguided.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 24, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kikuchi decision in 5 or so hours
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Oct 24, 2009 3:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm a nervous wreck!
massage his feet or something Dutch, get it done!
Good help doesn't come cheap.
- Gil LeBreton
by BigGuns on Oct 24, 2009 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is just the preliminary decision
to see if Texas has a shot, but I agree…cmon Dutch — Saki Saki
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Oct 24, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That guy would be a rockstar in Japan, I bet he stays.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Oct 24, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
when can you start signing FAs?
for some reason I thought it was after Oct. 31, but I would think it would have to be after the WS, which would likely still be going on
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Oct 24, 2009 4:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
just because I love posting this
I love the fact that Cruz has serious, serious power to all fields.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
by tricer on Oct 24, 2009 4:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice splatter
/Dexter
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Oct 24, 2009 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz
I’ve never understood how anyone could think he was a bad fielder. He’s always looked really good out there to me. Solid arm, solid range, solid bat. A very good player who probably shouldn’t be dicked around by his manager.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2009 5:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And those who say he is not a good fielder are saying such over a handful of bad routes/misplays.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Oct 24, 2009 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You wanna know what I think?
I think Nelson Cruz is the real Most Under-appreciated Ranger in the History of The Franchise.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Oct 24, 2009 7:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You been a Ranger fan for... three, four years?
by oc on Oct 24, 2009 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sigh
It was joke, dummy. Slash potshot at Newberg’s ridiculous claim about Feldman.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Oct 24, 2009 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although it is a joke
I think there is more truth in that than in Feldman.
Cruz gets dicked around during the year regarding playing time and the lineup — he should have been hitting cleanup all year (that cost him ABs). Screw AJ. Then he is supposedly claimed to be a terrible defender contrary to defensive stats etc. Then he is rumored to be on the Trading Block because, hey, he only led your team in HRs with 20 SBs. He had a WAR of 3.6 and his $400,000 contract is what we paid for a performance valued at $16.4M. I think he’s pretty damn unappreciated.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Oct 25, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz on defense reminds me of Kinsler last year at 2B.
Great range, but lots of mental errors. Hopefully he can adjust next year like Kinsler did this year.
And if the Rangers trade Cruz, it better be for someone like Matt Cain or Ricky Nolasco.
Football=Fling... Baseball=Relationship
by Wemedge on Oct 24, 2009 9:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a very interesting comp.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Oct 24, 2009 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, unlike Cruz, UZR actually agreed that Kinsler was terrible in 2008.
And in ’07 and ’06 too.
Cruz on the other hand, has always been well-liked by UZR, and I’m betting by other defensive metrics too. In fact, UZR says he’s worth 19 runs for his career in RF. So it’s not like Cruz just now became a good defender, like Kinsler did.
Surprised I never realized that before.
Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock
by lonestarJon on Oct 24, 2009 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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