Prospect rankings and playoff appearances
BBTiA takes a look at teams that in the past decade or so have ranked in the BA top 5 systems for three years in a row (the Rangers were top 5 in '08 and '09, and likely will be in '10), and how often that translated into playoff appearances.
3 months ago
Adam J. Morris
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Payroll vs Prospects
A study I would like to see (and it wouldn’t be easy) is one that dissociates the playoff gain by signing lots of free agents by boosting payroll from the playoff gain by developing a farm system.
This isn’t a trivial analysis, because much of the “Team X is always in the top 10 of spending, that is why they make the playoffs” analysis lacks a real causal understanding. Is Team X in the playoffs because of the free agents they signed? Or does Team X also spend a lot of their farm system (draft picks, intl signings) since they have lots of money, and the big league roster payroll is simply an indirect measure of that strength. (This may explain the Mets, who pay big at the top but always have weak development of young players).
In addition, consistently high payroll teams tend to both lose and gain free agents, which results in a net gain of +1 draft pick (get two comp picks for each loss, lose one pick for each signing). While one turnover probably is a negative, multiple turnovers will always be positive (gain a lot of 1st and 2nd rounders plus supplemental picks, but you only lose one pick from each round). There is thus a strong long term advantage to signing free agents and being able to offer arbitration to those who walk.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Oct 30, 2009 11:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know that you can disassociate payroll/prospects
It’s possible that a team will actually spend MORE money even though they have a bunch of prospects making it to the MLB club. A team like the Rangers, for instance, didn’t really have a reason to sign a high $$$ free agent or two last year because they were waiting until they were just missing the a couple of pieces. Once you have young prospects filling holes, you might be more willing to spend big bucks on an ace or a big impact bat. All teams have players who make league minimum or at least minimal salaries. On the good teams, those guys are good players, not just filler. The Rangers are now getting to the point where those guys are good.
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Oct 30, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is the big point
All teams have players who make league minimum or at least minimal salaries. On the good teams, those guys are good players, not just filler
Looking at payroll alone is such a shallow way of looking at organizations for this reason.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Oct 30, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The one issue with the study posted
is they do not show the lag between the prospects and the playoffs. For instance, let’s say the Yankees had a top system this year, but had no players on their major league team. Even though they had a good farm system, it would be immaterial to the playoff chances.
The example I gave was the ‘95-’97 top Dodgers rankings and the ’95 and ’96 Dodgers playoff team. If the farm was really the shot that did it, you would almost expect the success to be after the top 5 rankings not at the same time.
Perhaps if they showed win shares generated by the prospect versus total win shares of the playoff teams, it would give a better indicator. However, there is really nothing in the study that really shows any causal relation between the good farm system and playoff success. You might just as validly conclude that good GM are more likely to both build good major league teams and good farm systems.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Oct 30, 2009 11:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
On prospects and BA rankings
BA’s prospect rankings are offset by a year. The publication’s 2010 prospect and organizational rankings will be based upon minor league players from 2009. The Dodgers ‘95 and ’96 playoff teams included three players who were ranked on BA’s Top 100 list from 1995 – Todd Hollandsworth, Roger Cedeno, and Chan Ho Park. For what it is worth, the Dodgers Top 5 systems from ‘95-’97 was probably the weakest three-peat class of the past fifteen years with Paul Konerko (who was traded) and Adrian Beltre filling out the group of players who became productive major leaguers.
by spurdynasty on Oct 31, 2009 5:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My goal was not to show that a consistently strong farm system produces playoff appearances. Obviously, there are a lot of factors that affect a team’s ability to make the playoffs – payroll, injuries, coaching, deadline deals to name a few.
Last year, I did a correlation study that compared team’s major league W/L record with a variety of quantifiable organizational characteristics. The second most highly correlated characteristic from the past ten years or so (behind payroll) was the team’s average BA ranking from the previous three seasons.
by spurdynasty on Oct 31, 2009 6:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
top 100
I’ve seen over at minorleagueball a few top 100 projections that have Wilmer Font in the top 100. Will any other Ranger make the list? Mitch Moreland with his AZL performance should garner some consideration.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 30, 2009 11:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I still think Kiker has an outside shot at a 85-100 spot on the list
Hes my #5 prospect in our system now that Scheppers is signed. I know all about his wildness and his late season funk may keep him from the list but hes been a personal fave of mine since we drafted him.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 30, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know why I overlooked him.
He led the Texas League in Ks despite being one on the youngest pitchers in the league. If he were 6’3" and 210 he would be viewed much differently by the analysts and LSB.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 30, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if Aunt Jane had testes...
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 30, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and how do you know she doesn't????
Your family must be closer than mine…. :-)
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
by bking on Oct 30, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he had decent command and an 2-3mph on his FB...
by LiamP on Oct 30, 2009 2:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
If he had decent command and an extra 2-3mph on his FB...
by LiamP on Oct 30, 2009 2:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
You mean beside the obvious top 25 prospects we have?
Font, Kiker and Scheppers are all likely either in or near the top 100. But yes we do have a decent gap between our top talent and the next rank.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Oct 30, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think the gap is that pronounced
with guys like Ross, Boscan, Gutierrez among others
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Oct 30, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which players that made their ML debut this season are still eligible for the BA rankings?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 30, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Feliz?
He didn’t accrue the inning or the service time prior to roster expansion to lose rookie status. Is rookie status all that’s required for BA rankings?
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Oct 30, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To my understanding
yes, your still a prospect until you lose your rookie standing. So Feliz should be one of the top 3 prospects in baseball again to start this year.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Oct 30, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some non-rookies also end up qualifying
Michael Bourn, for example, was on the Astros prospect list even though he’d spent the entire previous season on the Phillies’ major league roster. He didn’t get enough PAs (130, I think) to lose prospect eligibility per BA.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 30, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, BA doesn't care about service time? Just PA/IP?
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Oct 30, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Call me weird.
You may call me weird, but I love the mid-range pitching prospects that the Rangers have. We all know about Feliz, and Martin Perez and Scheppers, and even Wilmer Font and Robbie Ross.
But what about Omar Poveda, Blake Beavan, Poor Michael Main who had a lost year due to some infection, Kennil Gomez, the whole Hickory rotation of Carlos Pimentel, Font, Wilfredo Boscan, Joe Wieland, and Niel Ramirez, and those are just the right handers. they also had Kasey Kiker, Michael Kirkman, Tim Murphy, and Richard Bleier.
The Rangers had 9 teenage pitchers appear for their affiliates this season. they had 35 pitchers aged 22 and younger appear in full season leagues for them, (including the three major leaguers in Hunter, Holland and Feliz)
Next year, the Rangers are looking at a serious glut of young, talented pitchers moving into the upper levels of their minor league systems. an astute general manager can turn some of this depth into some major league help without shedding our elite prospects.
I have faith that JD is that guy.
by iblum on Oct 30, 2009 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
an astute general manager can turn some of this depth into some major league help without shedding our elite prospects.
I have faith that JD is that guy.
What gives you this faith? Can you think of a time when JD traded minor league depth for major league help and was successful at it?
Favorite bumper sticker of all time, seen on a VW bus:
"Gas, Grass, or Ass. Nobody rides for free"
by tricer on Oct 30, 2009 2:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What gives you this faith?
Haven’t you been paying attention? Nolan Ryan is in charge now.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 30, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, in fairness..
When have we HAD minor league depth for him to trade?
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
by bking on Oct 30, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
DING, DING!!!
We have a winner!
In many years, the best Ranger prospect was no better than any of those second line guys I mentioned.
Here’s the challenge guys. Name a Texas Ranger Pitcher who was developed in our system who won as many as 10 games with an ERA under 5 since Kenny Rogers?
by iblum on Oct 30, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
4
To answer my own question, there are 4 of them before this year:
Roger Pavlik 1993, 12-6, 3.41 ERA and 1995, 10-10, 4.37 ERA
Darrin Oliver 1996, 14-6, 4.66 ERA and 1997, 13-12, 4.20 ERA
Doug Davis 2001, 11-10 4.45 ERA
Chris Young 2005, 12-7 4.26 ERA
this year we had:
Scott Feldman, 2009, 17-8, 4.08 ERA
that’s 5 in 25 years And for those of you who are complaining about the John Danks trade, anyone remember why we don’t still have Doug Davis?
by iblum on Oct 30, 2009 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a minor technicality
I think Chris Young spent more time in the Expos minor league system than he Rangers’. As for Davis, didn’t Buck not like him?
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Oct 31, 2009 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fuzzy
We picked up Young after he’d had about a half season of AA ball with Montreal.
He only spent one season on the farm for us, moving from AA to AAA and then to the Majors pretty quickly. Like just about any half way decent College pitchers, he didn’t spend all that much time in the minors anyway, even though he didn’t debut til he was 25. He also gets points for being born in Dallas as well.
by iblum on Nov 2, 2009 12:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
is that you?
Joesy, did you get another account!!!!!!
by iblum on Oct 30, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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