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Around SBN: A statistical basis for widespread HATE

AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bailey, Athletics. While the role of closer on a bad club is overrated, that does not take away what the unheralded Bailey did this season. He went from being a guy struggling to get anyone out as a starter at Double-A Midland midway through last season to pitching in the All-Star Game this year. That's pretty good stuff in a year during which pitchers dominated a ho-hum rookie class.
The rest of the ballot—2: Rick Porcello, Tigers; 3: Jeff Niemann, Rays

about 1 month ago Th_buckykatt_tiny Adam J. Morris 41 comments 0 recs  | 

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harsh

" This is the inning that propels us to the playoffs. Mark it down."
- Rohn Warshington on Jul 27, 2009 9:19 PM EDT
5th inning against the Tigers

by gossamer on Oct 4, 2009 8:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

BS

Note to self: Ignore everything from here on out that John Perrotto has to say about the game of baseball.

Dreaming of 2010

by RangerMoto on Oct 4, 2009 8:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That's an awful list.

I’d give it to another Athletic in Anderson over Bailey. Bailey shouldn’t even be in the top 3. I’d go Andrus/Anderson/Porcello.

I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar

by sprite on Oct 4, 2009 8:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I wonder

If Perrotto even knows Andrus is a rookie.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -

"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce

by Ed Coffin on Oct 4, 2009 8:21 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

"On the Beat?"

More like “On the Crack” AM I RITE GUYZ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!!?

by LiamP on Oct 4, 2009 8:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

BOOOOOOO!

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Oct 5, 2009 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Honestly

the only guy I could see getting it over Elvis is Porcello. No one else even comes close imo

After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL

by hinduplaya on Oct 4, 2009 8:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

really?

i have a hard time making a case for there being a significant distinction between porcello, anderson, and niemann. they all seem about equally deserving to me. that being said, i favor evlis over all of them.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Oct 4, 2009 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

actually check that

porcello has a FIP a full run higher than anderson and nearly a run higher than niemann. and he has the fewest IP of all of them. he still had a nice season but he has to be just a tier below those guys for ROY

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Oct 4, 2009 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ah

had forgotten all about Anderson for some reason. With Niemann, that really is a tough trio to pick from…

After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL

by hinduplaya on Oct 4, 2009 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anderson

He wasn’t on the list.

I would put him with Porcello.

Niemann is a nice pitcher, but I don’t think he has top of the rotation potential like Porcello and Anderson do.

by Darrell McKown on Oct 5, 2009 7:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe not

but as far as 2009 performance, which i think most would agree the ROY should be judged on, its hard to put porcello ahead of him. i can agree with them being considered roughly equal, but if you had to pick one over the other i think niemann has to be the guy.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Oct 5, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jayson Stark at ESPN

Gave it to Andrew Bailey also. Listed Elvis 4th after Bailey, Porcello, Niemann.

Link

If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.

by GhettoBear04 on Oct 4, 2009 8:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Andrus

Porcello is the only one in that list I would even think about trading Elvis for, and I’m a big Niemann fan.

by Darrell McKown on Oct 4, 2009 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm surprised that a BP guy is overrating a guy because of his saves

but then again, he does play for Oakland. And they probably have to salvage something out of their prediction that the A’s were a first place team…

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Oct 4, 2009 8:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, it's Perrotto

I wouldn’t say he’s pure BP.

by Brett Perryman on Oct 4, 2009 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair. . .

. . . it wasn’t their prediction, it was PECOTA’s. Perroto’s predictions are probably usually worse, though, so he probably doesn’t want people pointing out that distinction.

by philkid3 on Oct 5, 2009 1:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Perrotto is a beat writer from some paper up in the north that does similar "beat writer" things for BP

It’s not like it’s Sheehan listing Bailey as his ROY.

"Feldman and Feliz and and pray for…infectious disease?"--TheJeezus on Sep 9, 2009 1:01 PM PDT

by WestTxAg06 on Oct 5, 2009 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

How can you argue with that...

I mean the guy went to the AS game for crying out loud. Automatic ROY. Of course the A’s had to have someone go to the AS Game.

My list would be 1) Niemann 2) Porcello 3) Andrus

Giving an award like the ROY/Cy Young/MVP to a closer or relief pitcher is usually not justifiable imho.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Oct 4, 2009 9:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Makes me think of when Eck got the MVP and Cy Young

That was in 1992 before a lot of advanced stats. I’ll be completely honest, can anyone tell me whether Eck deserved either honors since I’m bad at finding that stuff? As I look at things, it almost looks to me like Rob Dibble was the better pitcher and I couldn’t even tell you if someone was a better MVP candidate.

It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.

by WyoRanger on Oct 4, 2009 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rob Dibble?

He was in the N.L. in 1992.

by Adam J. Morris on Oct 4, 2009 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was late when I wrote that

Perhaps my point was that Rob Dibble didn’t win the NL Cy Young that year? Who knows.

It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.

by WyoRanger on Oct 5, 2009 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was part of a revisionist MVP project a while ago.

Eck finished 9th on my ballot that year, so he was, probably deserving of some votes (obviously this being my opinion). I had him a few spots behind Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens and Kevin Appier on the MVP ballot, though, so I probably wouldn’t have considered him for Cy Young but he might have still had a place on the ballot. He was nowhere NEAR deserving of the MVP, though. Off the top of my head, Frank Thomas was head and shoulders over everyone, and Mussina and Clemens head and shoulders over everyone else.

I actually have the formula for how to convert FIP to WAR in my computer, but I’d have to look up the run environment from that year to do it and I have to get up early. I can do it later if you’re actually interested in the outcome.

by philkid3 on Oct 5, 2009 1:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at it from the standpoint of Fangraphs WAR

Elvis kinda dropped off to mid-pack among SS in value thanks to a terrible last couple weeks, but he’s still a solid 3.0 win player in his rookie season, and that’s damned impressive.

Bailey, on the other hand is 2.3 WAR, and Porcello was worth just 1.7. The guys who are up there with Elvis are Neimann (3.1 WAR) and Ricky Romero (2.7 WAR).

Based on that, it should probably be between Neimann and Elvis for ROY, with Romero as the dark horse possibility. Bailey seems like more of a fringy candidate and Porcello shouldn’t even be in the discussion.

Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock

by lonestarJon on Oct 4, 2009 10:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmn, good point

I forgot to look him up. Fangraphs won’t let you sort by rookies (damned annoying, they really should), so I’m going from memory here.

There’s your ROY then. 3.8 WAR.

Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock

by lonestarJon on Oct 4, 2009 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OT: k...Arod

what a game for him. Another solid year…

So, i wanted to go check some of his stats out, ’cause i was curious about a few things…especially comparing him to Jeter.

Why is Jeter viewed as a ‘clutch’ player, regular and postseason and Arod is not? Arod’s OPS is higher than Jeter’s in the playoffs. He is better than Jeter in every ‘clutch’ stat and is much better in High Leverage situations.

usa

by Longhorn on Oct 4, 2009 11:21 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Past history

Jeter has rings from the 90s, and he’s beloved because he was the face of that dynasty.

I like steak.

by Conjunction on Oct 4, 2009 11:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heh 2 HR 7 rbi in the last game to get to exactly 30 hr - 100 rbi

cutting it close on the streak a-rod!

the preceding post was a great success.

by DSheppard on Oct 5, 2009 4:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because Jeter is gritty, has the right "eyes", and is a True Yankee

A-Rod is a mercenary, a prima donna, likes being in the tabloids, and isn’t a True Yankee.

"Feldman and Feliz and and pray for…infectious disease?"--TheJeezus on Sep 9, 2009 1:01 PM PDT

by WestTxAg06 on Oct 5, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

In the global context

You have to think that the A’s top candidates, Bailey and Anderson, split their votes. They both deserve strong consideration, though I think they appeal to different people: Anderson to the value-minded observers and Bailey to the more traditional. I could imagine both getting multiple 1st place votes while getting left off several ballots each.

Niemann had a very good year (go Rice!), and will probably get a lot of deserving support from people who saw him (East coasters). Porcello just wasn’t good enough to stand up to the rest of this crowd, but there will be enough people who vote for him off pedigre alone. However, it should be noted that ROYs are often no-names. I just can’t imagine many ballots having Porcello above Niemann.

How I would vote:
1) Andrus, 2) Niemann, 3) Anderson. All three deserve votes

How I predict the tally will end up:

1) Niemann, 2) Andrus, 3) Bailey, 4) Anderson, 5) Porcello – 3-5 will all be very close. Some stupid people will vote for guys like Wieters and Beckham. I can see 9 guys getting at least one vote (maybe O’Day or Hunter will get a friendly too- they deserve it more than Gordan Beckham does…)

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Oct 4, 2009 11:30 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Beckham

Are at least as deserving if not more deserving of votes than Porcello based on their WARs. Dunno what’s wrong with a .351 wOBA for a rook.

Hank is 7 runs below a zombie replacement at first base. Do you realize how terrible that is? Zombie’s can’t think, they’re slow, and they’re often ejected from the game for eating opposing baserunners’ brains. - Ben quantifies Hank Blalock

by lonestarJon on Oct 5, 2009 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, Porcello doesn't deserve votes

O’Day probably deserves as many votes as Porcello does.

My point is that Porcello will get votes, along with Beckham and Wieters, just because of their draft pedigre; though I only see 4 guys as deserving any.

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Oct 5, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

I’ve taken a somewhat in-depth look at the ROY race this morning and arrived at the determination that, yes, voting for Porcello ahead of Andrus is pretty silly.

by Joey Matschulat on Oct 5, 2009 5:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

When do the votes have to be in?

If some haven’t voted yet, and Porcello shuts down the Twins tomorrow (ESPN says he’s starting…) that will probably sway a ton of idiotic votes his way.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Oct 5, 2009 8:15 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

to be fair

if Perotto’s anything like me, he actually forgot the Rangers were playing games n September and therefore forgot to consider Andrus.

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Oct 5, 2009 9:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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