Keith Law's offers his award picks
Keith Law offers mock ballots on every award except NL Cy Young, where he has a real ballot which he doesn't want to reveal until the award is officially announced. Porcello-Niemann-Bailey at 1-2-3 for AL ROY, and Beckham and Weiters get mentions, but no Elvis.
2 months ago
Adam J. Morris
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Keith Law is an idiot
No Elvis= No credibility.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Nov 13, 2009 1:25 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with that
I think Andrus was a very good bet for the year. Honestly why wouldn’t you include Romero over one of the three that he mentioned either.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 13, 2009 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he's an idiot
I’d be curious about why he thinks he’s not on the list, though.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 13, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Could be as simple as he forgot about him.
Because I agree with you on him not being an idiot, even when I don’t agree with his premise its well thought out and reasonable.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 13, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
His response was
He doesn’t put enough stock in defensive statistics to put Andrus on the ballot.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 13, 2009 3:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Was this an email response to you or something?
I just don’t understand that. If he doesn’t believe Andrus was that good defensively because of the stats, why doesn’t he just look at the fielding bible voting where Elvis was third overall in SS and could have been right up there with Wilson and Tulowitzki if two of the voters didn’t have Elvis 10th (for whatever crazy reason that was).
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 13, 2009 4:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No it was a response on the ESPN website down in the comments
If you’re asking me who I’d rather have going forward, I’d take Andrus, hands down. I’d also take Brett Anderson over Niemann or Bailey and I’d have to think hard about him vs. Porcello. But I still weighted current-year performance most heavily, and I’m not comfortable putting that much stock in defensive statistics to put Andrus on the ballot.
http://myespn.go.com/s/conversations/show/story/4652104
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 13, 2009 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Law the one who's never liked Elvis?
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 13, 2009 5:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Goldstein
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 13, 2009 5:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Right...
I’d at least like to hear the reasoning of wieters over andrus.
I can see the arguments that could be made for the other 4 players, but this is the one that sticks out the most to me.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Nov 13, 2009 1:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
2.7 vs 2.2
BP shows Andrus worth 2.7 WARP2 vs 2.2 for Weiters.
(Bailey had 7, but I think their system overrates pitchers).
by iblum on Nov 16, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if Keith Law's an idiot, I'd sure as hell like to know who you consider bright
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Nov 13, 2009 9:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+1MM
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 13, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Come on Keith
Time for you to use your magical internet searching powers to find this thread and explain why you left Elvis out of your top 3.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 13, 2009 1:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
He'll be here before too long.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
by Ryin A on Nov 13, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't wrap my mind around it...
how anyone with even the SLIGHTEST bit of baseball knowledge could not even MENTION Elvis Andrus.
"you stupid motherfucker?!?!!?" - Josey Wales
by cmkelly29 on Nov 13, 2009 2:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
This
I can live w/o him winning the ROY, but to not even be in the conversation is maddening. If he were playing for the Yanks or Sawx he’d be a run-away winner, and Keith Law knows it.
Grieve: The Yanks have struggled so far. - Lewin: Yeah, cry me a bag of money.
Dykstra has all the money!
ElectricOkra.com
by WhipSmart on Nov 13, 2009 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He missed the boat here
1-3 are all pitchers. I get the feeling that Law feels he can evaluate pitchers by eye (he comments a lot about mechanics) and batters by numbers. Elvis isn’t a pitcher and didn’t put up eye-popping offensive stats. Still, pretty big screw up.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Nov 13, 2009 2:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
And Keith can offer his ROY picks
But I’m not accepting them.
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Nov 13, 2009 2:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I don't have Insider privilege
So can’t read the rationale. But I have trouble fathoming how Brett Anderson isn’t a better choice than any of his top three, and how Elvis is omitted from the discussion. Just wonder if any reminder that run prevention is what made the Rangers competitive in 2008 was lost completely from his radar.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Nov 13, 2009 2:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
maybe he found an incriminating article in spanish
(he’s fluent in spanish)
by ab03 on Nov 13, 2009 2:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
There's a word in Spanish I don't understand
but I heard it in a film one time spoken by the leading man. He said it with devotion; he sounded so sincere. And the word he spoke in Spanish brought the female lead to tears.
A word in Spanish.
Grieve: The Yanks have struggled so far. - Lewin: Yeah, cry me a bag of money.
Dykstra has all the money!
ElectricOkra.com
by WhipSmart on Nov 13, 2009 2:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Welp.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
by ghtd36 on Nov 13, 2009 2:46 PM CST reply actions 8 recs
well done
but why is Max Newberg on the list?
by MikeEl on Nov 13, 2009 2:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh.
Because I needed an eighth name, and just got done reading Jamey’s TROT COFFEY.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
by ghtd36 on Nov 13, 2009 2:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
See, and that's why I don't trust myself.
I knew as soon as I posted it, I’d get reminded of one that’s way, way, way, way better.
Damn it.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
by ghtd36 on Nov 13, 2009 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
For what it's worth...
I think Max Newberg being on there is funnier.
by ghostofErikThompson on Nov 13, 2009 5:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, well done
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Nov 13, 2009 9:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Law
He seems to have developed a bizarre anti-Ranger chip on his shoulder. The other day he showed up on Evan Grant’s blog taunting him about Grant’s year-old defense of Michael Young’s Gold Glove. He was basically calling Evan out for saying that Kinsler should get gold glove consideration based on more advanced defensive metrics. It was random and weird.
Not mediocre. Right about average
by trza on Nov 13, 2009 4:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
@keithlaw You’re insane for not even mentioning Elvis Andrus as a ROY candidate.
@cmkelly29 Didn’t know I was obligated to mention every candidate.
@keithlaw Well, you aren’t.. but how do you defend Wieters > Andrus?
"you stupid motherfucker?!?!!?" - Josey Wales
by cmkelly29 on Nov 13, 2009 5:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
thats my main question
how does he defend wieters over andrus?
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Nov 13, 2009 5:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
his reply was
“I didn’t include Wieters on my ballot either.”
"you stupid motherfucker?!?!!?" - Josey Wales
by cmkelly29 on Nov 13, 2009 5:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't know why nobody like Brett Anderson for AL ROY
And forgetting the Elvis snub for a moment I also don’t see how in the heck you can put Porcello ahead of Neimann.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 13, 2009 5:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Porcello
from what i’ve read in a lot of the unofficial polls on sites, porcello seems to be getting a large consensus of the fan vote and I don’t get why. He had a good end of the season, and I guess people give him credit for not falling on his face when shoved out there early.
But bailey and niemann were both more valuable to their teams and better this season.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Nov 13, 2009 5:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Its likely name recognition
Porcello is a name that they have heard before as a top prospect so it resonates better than someone who they haven’t heard of before.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 13, 2009 5:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Porcello's name and prospect notoriety are what's driving his ROY campaign
But the reality is his tRA (5.59) pRAA (-10.9) and WAR (1.9) are nowhere close to Anderson’s, Neimann’s, or even Bailey’s.
If you go by WAR’s, which is probably the easiest way to campare the position players and the pitchers, Anderson (3.8) Neimann (3.2) Elvis (3.0) and Bailey (2.4) all beat Porcello bigtime and Gordon Beckham (2.0) and Matt Weiters (1.9) are almost exactly the same.
If you just look at the pitchers and go by tRA and pRAA, the gap becomes even more massive:
Anderson, 3.62 tRA, 27.1 pRAA
Bailey, 2.08 tRA, 22.1 pRAA
Niemann, 4.77 tRA, 3.8 pRAA
Porcello, 5.59 tRA, -10.9 pRAA
Looking at the numbers, especially the tRA/pRAA, there’s no way in hell Porcello should even be in the same ballpark for consideration as those other guys, let alone ROY. He just wasn’t that good in his rookie season.
Really big fail for K-Law on this one.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 13, 2009 5:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well... prepare for a let down by everyone else
Because from what it seems, porcello is the most likely guy.
As far as Anderson, I dont get why he isn’t at least getting mention in the media. I suppose its because his tried and true standard stats look better (wins and losses and era).
But when the two are compared side by side it’s pretty clear who was better.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Nov 13, 2009 5:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
WAR!!!
What is it good for?
by robert_d_wilfong on Nov 14, 2009 12:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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