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The link above is for the Rangers. CHONE doesn't expect big things from the Ranger offense

2 months ago Th_buckykatt_tiny Adam J. Morris 84 comments 0 recs  | 

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only 138 games? That would be disappointing.

|Space for Rent|

by RangerMad on Nov 15, 2009 4:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

interesting that CHONE has Borbon

with a .291 avg. the highest on the Ranger team and the only one above .290.

There are so many question marks in this offense it’s ridiculous.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 15, 2009 4:14 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

5 days until FA can sign with other teams

if I’m not mistaken…

or should I say, 5 days until the Rangers get to watch other teams sign FAs.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 15, 2009 4:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

This isn't a shot at you

but it seems to me that every other day I see negative comments about the Rangers chances to pluck a worthy FA then the next day I’ll see optimism.

It’s really odd.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Nov 15, 2009 4:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i wonder

if it relates to the ebb and flow of different rumors

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Nov 15, 2009 5:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

every indication is that JD's hands are going to tied this offseason

until the ownership situation is resolved. whether it’s a trade or FA. we’ll see how things pan out. i hope for the best, but right now I fear the worst

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 15, 2009 5:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Face

I really doubt his average slips from .322 to .284. 2009 was clearly a case of his hand being injured. I think Face hits somewhere between .300 to .310.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Nov 15, 2009 4:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

change 2009 to 2008. Ugh.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Nov 15, 2009 4:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

it has him

at .289 but yeah i think that’s low too. i think 15 HRs is about right though.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Nov 15, 2009 5:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How did these predictions fare last season?

Which set was the most accurate, not just for the Rangers but generally speaking?

by Black Francis on Nov 15, 2009 5:00 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Lately...

…when I try to post the site just hangs there, like it doesn’t care what I have to say.

by Black Francis on Nov 15, 2009 5:01 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Me too.

If it does that, I just hit preview, and when it previews it, “post” again. That’s a good way to create double posts though.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 6:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep, it's the equivalent

of when your wife is talking and you’re just nodding and saying “uh-huh”.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 15, 2009 11:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh

At first I thought we were projecting about Chone Figgins.

by mc80aea on Nov 15, 2009 5:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I like that German Duran is on there.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 6:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Projections

I see absolutely no reason to expect Andrus to regress next year.

Also, not sure why you would project Murphy, at age 28, to have a lower OPS than not only his career OPS, but also lower than every year he’s been in the majors.

by Darrell McKown on Nov 15, 2009 5:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Sophomore slump?

"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland

by DJCahill on Nov 15, 2009 6:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Andrus

I’m thinking the odds of improving from your age-20 to age-21 seasons, particularly when you played every day at age 20 and improved your OPS by over 70 points from the first half of the year to the second half, are significanly better than having the so-called “sophomore slump”.

What Elvis did at age-20 is one of the most promising developments for this team this entire decade.

by Darrell McKown on Nov 15, 2009 6:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree with you

but projections are only that, a projection based in fantasy and will most likely be wrong. It is like a weatherman. They cannot predict the future, and there are some points that are ridiculous

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 15, 2009 8:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Young hits that low in average

unless he’s that bothered by injuries throughout the season. CHONE also looks way off on Elvis

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 15, 2009 6:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

IIRC

Chone doesn’t like the Rangers pretty much every single year if I’m remembering right.

What do voluntary mean?

by JKolar on Nov 15, 2009 7:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Boy, they've really nailed my worst case scenarios for Hamilton and Davis.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 6:47 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

So according to ZIPS and now CHONE...

we should just assume Josh Hamilton is a downhill ride from here on out. I don’t dispute that.

"you stupid motherfucker?!?!!?" - Josey Wales

by cmkelly29 on Nov 15, 2009 7:10 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

It's all contingent on Hamilton's power coming back.

If it doesn’t. he’s basically David Murphy.

Bigsteve should be along soon to tell us both how stupid we are for not having faith that Hamilton’s power will return, so I’ll just step aside now.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 7:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Everyone has their opinions

Mine is just that I think Hamiltons power and overall offensive game will rebound. There is certainly evidence it might not but there is also evidence it might

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 15, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If healthy

Hamlton will have plenty of power.

|Space for Rent|

by RangerMad on Nov 15, 2009 7:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

what is the argument that Hamilton will not rebound?

Age?

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

by Ryin A on Nov 15, 2009 8:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The main thing is injury tendency

And how well his body can rebound from this year. Hopefully the offseason will allow him to heal to the point where he can recover the power swing he lost after his surgery this year, but even then he’s gotta stop doing Jim Edmonds impressions in the outfield (and aggravating his injuries when he tweaks himself).

Plus he’s simply not a smart hitter. He falls into ruts where he hacks like Vlad Guerrero without the insane hand/eye coordination far too often. Actually, I don’t think of him as a very smart baseball player period, as much as he hacked and re-injured himself last year.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 9:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's my not so scientific take on Hamilton...

He kicked his own ass when he tried to fix something that simply wasn’t broke. He tried to go away from a complex timing mechanism in the toe tap (per Rudy’s advice), to a more generic approach…..if a hitter is not familiar with a generic approach it then becomes a complex timing mechanism…..

When it appeared that he was getting comfy with the new approach he went skull first into the wall, got hurt….we then digress….boo

I think he’s going to go ballistic next year.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

by Ryin A on Nov 15, 2009 9:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I hope you're right

But the fact that he never really got his timing 100% figured out this year is actually yet another reason why I’m apprehensive about him going into next year.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 9:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think he goes into ST with his old school '08 approach..

..gets it down pretty quick (bc I do think he got it back at one point and then got hurt again) and is a effn animal.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

by Ryin A on Nov 15, 2009 9:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He raked in spring training, along with Davis ironically

and both failed in the regular season. I’m optimistic about his 2010 performance, but I’m optimistic about the entire team’s performance regardless of whether they bring in a FA.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Nov 15, 2009 10:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe it was Hamilton who initiated the changing of the toe tap

not Rudys advice

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 16, 2009 8:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

All the projections had Hamilton having a down year last season

So don’t be too shocked to see them continue to predict him struggling this season.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 15, 2009 7:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It would be significant

If CHONE listed the players who are actually on the team or in the system. The chart looks like it was done during a commute by the absent minded professor.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -

"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce

by Ed Coffin on Nov 15, 2009 7:21 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

CHONE was just really excited because it's a Type A this year

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

x
If CHONE listed the players who are actually on the team or in the system.

I think that’s what it is listing.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 15, 2009 7:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

German Duran?

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 7:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I am continually baffled

that people expect these projection systems to know every transaction of all 30 teams. German Duran is pretty damn far down the list of guys I care are on the “right” team for projection purposes. He’ll be pretty poor no matter what team he plays on.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 15, 2009 11:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Is that not a managable function when you maintain a database?

If you’re going to predict future performance for a player, it would seem germane to know what a player’s home park is going to be and what league he’s going to be playing in. I know the projection process attempts to normalize the numbers, but if you ignore or filter out key factors, you end up turning everybody into the same player.

by swampdonkey on Nov 16, 2009 12:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My point

is that guys like Duran are very minor figures. If you suck, park factors are just not that important. What park is going to make Nate Gold or Kevin Richardson suddenly relevant? I just wonder why every time one of these projections is brought people dwell on such minor issues instead of discussing the actual projections.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 16, 2009 1:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

beyond park factors, is it that hard to fact check 40 man rosters

or further rosters to get players right. If I’m going to place something out there that the masses read like CHONE or Zips, I’d make sure I got my basic information right — the players. That is the only facts they have. Everything else is trying to predict the future, which is pointless but fun to talk about. Is that hard?

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 8:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The guys that do ZiPS and CHONE...

…do it as a hobby. Unlike, say, BP, this is a labor of love, not a paycheck.

Think about how much time it takes to input the raw data for multiple season, run the projections for each player, get everything formatted and put in place for their blog or whatever…

It is time consuming. And then, on top of that, you want to have them go through and spend a few hours — per team — cross-referencing to make sure that there isn’t a German Duran or Nate Gold that didn’t change teams that wasn’t reflected?

So yeah, I think it is harder than you are suggesting, and the point of this is the projections themselves. And the other “facts they have” are the previous seasons worth of data which are plugged into the projection algorithm…the team the player is currently on isn’t the only fact.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 16, 2009 9:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

they, aslo, know that most baseball sites/blogs refer

to their projections etc, whether they are accurate or not. I don’t really care if it’s a hobby or “labor of love” as you say.

I think you can spend a couple extra hours and release your projections a few days later to get it right. I don’t see the problem. And, yes they do compile past seasons into their algorithm, but for most cases they should probably just have to update the most recent year. If they recompile everything every year, that would be ridiculous

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Its not a simple task

There is no usable digital feed for transactions that can automatically update their database. They would need to manually go through the transaction wire (MLB and MiLB) and update the data for each transaction. And with misspellings and similar names, it is easy to get wrong or to overlook certain low-level guys.

"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."

by NorCalRangersFan on Nov 16, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

then they should focus simply on the players they can track

why waste your time with low level guys anyway. stick to 40 man rosters and get it right if that’s what it takes.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 12:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think 95% of the folks...

…realized what is involved in what they do, and are appreciative of the information, even if the initial runs occasionally have someone like German Duran on the wrong team.

I think most folks would rather see more projections and have the occasional mistake with a AA guy being on the wrong team that have projections limited to just the 40 man roster.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 16, 2009 1:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i realize what they do

and I guess, let me be one of the 5% that hold people to a higher standard.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

I don’t get why people get so worked up about those sorts of things.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 16, 2009 9:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

As I recall

CHONE predicted the Rangers would win 67 games last year.

I like steak.

by Conjunction on Nov 15, 2009 8:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Great question:

Is CHONE an acronym? If so, for what?

"you stupid motherfucker?!?!!?" - Josey Wales

by cmkelly29 on Nov 15, 2009 10:27 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

pretty sure it was named after chone figgins

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Nov 15, 2009 10:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i'm sorry

were you labeling your own question as great?

by ab03 on Nov 15, 2009 10:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

From the looks of it, yes. What ever happened to modesty?

I kid, I kid.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Nov 15, 2009 11:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It was a great question.

"you stupid motherfucker?!?!!?" - Josey Wales

by cmkelly29 on Nov 16, 2009 12:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

is "what is jfk's birthday?" a good question

because you could have figured out the answer just as easily

by ab03 on Nov 16, 2009 8:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It was sarcastic...

meaning “I honestly have no idea what CHONE is supposed to stand for, but I’m following thier projections anyways.”

I Google’d it, didn’t find an answer in the first page.. so I just said “fuck it, I’ll ask someone who knows.”

So, here’s a great suggestion: Eat a dick.

"you stupid motherfucker?!?!!?" - Josey Wales

by cmkelly29 on Nov 16, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A user on Amazing Avenue

has a pretty good explanation of it I think.

Sean Smith goes by Chone Smith on the web sometimes
(he’s an Angels fan)

in the spirit of PECOTA, he calls his projection system CHONE, although I’m not sure it actually stands for anything.

An Angels fan, eh? Maybe a little lot of bias in his projections (Again, I kid. Or do I? Hmmm)

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Nov 15, 2009 11:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My question is

Does this mean CHONE is Rev approved?

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 15, 2009 11:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

none of them perform well enough

to have a “top” performer

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 8:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why don't you just ignore them altogether

since you seem to understand their purpose and application so poorly.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 16, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What gives you the idea I don't understand

I pay attention to what a meteorologist may say about a 10-day weather forecast, but I know they are most likely going to wrong. I can look at these projections the same way. They are what they are. If you don’t understand the problems with projecting the future then maybe you should consort with Zoltar and Gypsies

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't questioning it. I was trying to be humorous

If anybody could have there projections put up on various saber-friendly sights, of course they look at things with an even view point.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Nov 16, 2009 7:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Look at the Angels. There predictions are more doom and gloom than ours are.

No one over .300 on the Angels. That’s just absurd. And no one over 20 HRs

I still believe!

by Ranger121032 on Nov 16, 2009 1:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You mean maybe their team BABIP won't be .350 million again???

absurd! :)

"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.

by Kinslerhomer on Nov 16, 2009 4:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

TRON hitting projections have been available for a while now.

TRON doesn’t expect big things from the Rangers’ offense, either.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

"Especially stinkbeetles!!!" -God.

by thedirkatron on Nov 16, 2009 12:05 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

What about from Marcus Lemon?

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 16, 2009 12:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

An OPS around 5.000 or so.

I’d go higher, but I don’t want to get carried away.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

"Especially stinkbeetles!!!" -God.

by thedirkatron on Nov 16, 2009 5:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I do think that all projections are mere speculation

and should never be taken too seriously. Baseball is a hard sport to predict, so I don’t look too much into projections. Injuries can always happen and there are other things that might affect a player in a positive or negative manner.

They’re fun to do and think about, but should be taken with a grain of salt.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Nov 16, 2009 12:14 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

+1

I enjoy looking at them, but I don’t think you can look at any projection system and say “this is what Dusty MCGrit is going to hit next year”. It’s interesting to look at, and it might give you an idea what Dusty McGrit will do, and that’s all it’s really intended as. People tend to bash projections because they can’t predict the future, but that’s not why they really exist, and if you’re saying the will predict the future you’re incorrect, IMO.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire

by lonestarJon on Nov 16, 2009 12:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

These projections are useless

But interesting fodder, I guess. That said, the Rangers projections seem reasonable, with a few exceptions (Michael Young, for example).

Here’s a weird one from the Yankees:

                         AVG OBP SLG R150
Duncan, Shelley 0.257 0.340 0.512 16

huh?

Not mediocre. Right about average

by trza on Nov 16, 2009 8:59 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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