Another random thought about Elvis Andrus
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 16, 2009 11:30 AM CST
83 comments
I've been reading Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract recently, and something that caught my eye...
He discusses, in the section on Ryne Sandberg, whether one should have been able to reasonably predict that Sandberg had a good chance of becoming a Hall of Famer based on his rookie season. James says that a 22 year old who puts up 14-18 win shares (the range Sandberg was in as a 22 year old rookie) should be expected to have around a 25% chance of making the Hall of Fame, given how rare it is for someone that young to perform that well in the majors.
Elvis Andrus, of course, wasn't 22 years old last year. He was 20 years old. And his win share total for 2009?
17.
You have to feel really good about what the future holds for Elvis Andrus...
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Well
We’ll have to see how the jump throws play out.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Nov 16, 2009 11:32 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Elvis to the HOF
I wonder what kind of return we could get on this guy..
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Nov 16, 2009 11:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Nov 16, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
if what they gave up for Betancourt is any indication
an Andrus for Greinke swap would be fair
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What was the stat about 1st baseman taken in the 1st round of the draft?
like 50% go on to have really really good careers?
by tyd3311 on Nov 16, 2009 11:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Not that surprising
the most important factor in most position players is the ability to hit, and no one drafts 1B in the 1st round who can’t hit.
For reasons that elude me, you sometimes see catchers, SS, and CF who can’t hit a lick drafted in the 1st round though. Thats how you get the Scott Heards and Drew Meyers of the world.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Nov 16, 2009 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
1/3 of the time
that’s quite the stat. Smoak for HOF
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 6:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What does hall of fame "caliber" career mean?
It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
by WyoRanger on Nov 16, 2009 6:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Adam
I thought you weren’t a big believer in Win Shares.
I think it’s a good way to measure the value of players although I’m not sure James figured out a good way to measure how much pitchers contribute.
Given how well Tiny E played this year at this age, I’m at least open to him having the foundation to be a legitimate HOF candidate.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 16, 2009 11:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Didn't Bill James put together game scores?
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
by Keynes on Nov 16, 2009 11:59 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 16, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
nice ha
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Nov 16, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember the community prospect poll
where this community voted Michael Main as a better prospect.
Favorite bumper sticker of all time, seen on a VW bus:
"Gas, Grass, or Ass. Nobody rides for free"
by tricer on Nov 16, 2009 11:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
and?
Injuries happen. Though I didn’t think Main was better.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 16, 2009 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
at the time
that was not an unreasonable vote.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 16, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it was
Here is the link, in case anybody would like to review the discussion.
My prescient comment:
…when I look at the minor league records of the elite SS like HanRam, Rollins, Furcal, etc they look a lot like Andrus.
I think Andrus ceiling is something like the premier guys listed above. It’s certainly no lock that he reaches that ceiling, but if you want to know what those guys looked like in the minors, they looked a lot like Andrus currently does.
Favorite bumper sticker of all time, seen on a VW bus:
"Gas, Grass, or Ass. Nobody rides for free"
by tricer on Nov 16, 2009 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You can see that I voted Andrus in that thread
so I agree that he should have been ahead of Main there, but I don’t see Main as an unreasonable choice. The incorrect one, but not an unreasonable one. Also, when I replied I wasn’t sure which poll you were referring to. The earlier the poll, the less unreasonable a Main pick becomes. I originally thought you were referencing the poll previous to that one, in the summer of 2008.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 16, 2009 8:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know...
I was a big Main guy, I still am. I had him ahead of Elvis for a couple reasons.
I didn’t think Andrus’ bat would play as well as it did in the bigs. Still has a ways to go, but he did much better than I thought he would.
Secondly, I really thought Main was going to break out last year. Now obviously he had some issues, but I don’t think you can dismiss him after one bad, injury filled season. I still think Main could be a TORP. Time will tell.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 16, 2009 10:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OT. Report: Sox, Pads, Angels Talking Three Way Deal Involving Konerko, Gonzalez, and Prospects
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 16, 2009 12:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
i'd be ok with that
as long as Gonzalez wasn’t going to the Angels
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Konerko’s old
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 16, 2009 12:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Konerko would replace Vlad
and if AG is going to the WSox I would imagine the Angels aren’t giving up very much.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 16, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd probably bet that it would be Brandon Wood from the Halos
I’d have to guess its Wood. Unless the Halo’s are dumb enough to be moving Morales.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 16, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Says Konerko to the LAAAngels
Gonzalez to Chicago, with prospects from both teams heading to San Diego.
by Outworlder47 on Nov 16, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, i read the link
it’s a rumor, and as long as the rumor doesn’t shift to Gonzalez to the Angels. I’m ok with it.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So...
It sounds more like two separate trades…
1. Konerko for prospects.
2. Gonzalez for prospects.
Perhaps more is to come.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Nov 16, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
so
the announcement should be coming soon, no??
After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL
by hinduplaya on Nov 16, 2009 12:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Bailey won
Saves the most overrated stat
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 16, 2009 1:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Since expansion...
… there have only been three other shortstops who posted a 14-20 WS season at the age of 20: Robin Yount, Alan Trammell, and Edgar Renteria.
Since 1900, there have only been seven middle infielders accomplish the feat: 2 Hall of Famers (Mazeroski, Yount) and 5 multi-year All-Stars (Travis Jackson, Bobby Doerr, Yount, Trammell, Renteria).
What strikes me the most is that no middle infielder who posted a 14-20 WS season at age 20 has EVER had anything less than an All-Star caliber career. Odds look pretty good that Elvis has some good years ahead!
by sfbennett1 on Nov 16, 2009 12:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Elvis gets 2nd in the ROY voting
loses to Andrew Bailey
by TigerPride on Nov 16, 2009 1:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
LSB suffers collective seizure.
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Nov 16, 2009 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Even trade
Bailey gets ROY, Andrus gets a 20 year career and a HOF berth. I’ll take that.
I just hope he spends the first 10 to 15 years here.
by iblum on Nov 16, 2009 4:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
damn
I hope elvis takes bailey for a shot the first time he sees him next year
After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL
by hinduplaya on Nov 16, 2009 1:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If our ownership situation wasn't so up in the air I think now would be a good time to offer E and extension
9yr/100 million
Takes him through age 30 which would still be prime age for a free agent. Structured similar to Jeters salaries. Yearly salaries starting next year of : 1.5, 3,6,9,12, 15, 17, 18, 18 with a 500,000 signing bonus
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 16, 2009 1:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen what he's been writing lately?
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 16, 2009 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
what?
Its not that outrageous I don’t think.
I said it was structured after Jeters which he didn’t sign an extension until his second arbitration year. His salaries starting with his second full season in the majors are as follows: .75, 5, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19
That was back in 2000. I may be a little on the high side but I wouldn’t think by much at least early on. Elvis may not be a 18 mil a year player when hes 28, 29 years old but he should be at least a 15 mil player I would imagine
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 16, 2009 1:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeter got his deal after 5 years (four titles)
with the Yankees.
Let’s tap the brakes just a tad on $ 100 million extensions for 20 year olds.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 16, 2009 1:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree
Let’ see how he plays his second and third years before going crazy. What was Longoria’s contract last yt?
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Nov 16, 2009 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Longoria got 6/18 or 8/40 (once the Rays exercise their options on him)
So if you space it out to 9 years it would be around 60 million.
OK I was a little high. Longoria got his after only like a week as a major leaguer and he wasn’t 20 years old. I wonder what the same length deal would cost TB if they waited till after the entire first full season. Also because they had held him back a few weeks he had an extra year until free agency.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 16, 2009 2:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Im sorry I read Cots wrong
its 9/48 with the club options
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 16, 2009 2:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Its the bat
I just don’t think its too likely Elvis will develop the bat that he needs to get the 18 million dollar paycheck. I think hes going to be a very good player, and possibly a HOF player, but he probably won’t ever get that massive superstar pay check.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 16, 2009 1:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking that Robbie Alomar
is a good comp and that’s a helluva player.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 16, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the 4th or 5th best of all time at his position?
Yeah, I think I’ll take that.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Internet greatness http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/11/10/1125340/will-carroll-calls-out-josey-wales
by WestTxAg06 on Nov 16, 2009 3:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Tiny E should be able to become a 15-20 HR hitter
who steals 50 bases plus with an OPS above .800.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 16, 2009 3:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Your insight in this thread
has opened up a little window of love from me to you, lol. Keep it up.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Nov 16, 2009 8:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Who
really gives a shit what YOU think?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 16, 2009 10:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know.
*shrugs.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
by jdh90 on Nov 17, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You say that like
Anybody gives a shit what anybody thinks.
by brettgardner on Nov 17, 2009 5:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Like it or not
people really give a shit what Josey Wales has to say.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 17, 2009 6:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I also didn't know Roddy B
was black either but when I’ve stopped down to watch the Mavs this year he hasn’t been in the game. I’d heard about him but didn’t see him play until this past Sunday/Monday.
I’m worried about the Mavs because we’re less than 12 games in and they’re having things happen to them that happen to old teams.
If healthy, very intriguing (especially if Josh can go) but I don’t think they’re going to be healthy enough to be a legit threat.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
by Josey Wales on Nov 17, 2009 6:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
It’s time to start having the mindset that Howard isn’t a part of this team, in my opinion.
Marion has been more mediocre offensively than I thought he’d be so far, but he’s hobbled, too.
In any case, with Roddy/Ross/Terry in the backcourt, this team is a lot, lot better than it was last year. Marion helps out defensively a ton.
I’m not sure if they’re legit yet, and there very well could be need for some mild tinkering, but they’ve really looked good so far, particularly defensively.
by brettgardner on Nov 17, 2009 6:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
6th or 7th
sorry…. Alomar ranks behind Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Joe Morgan, Rogers Hornsby and Charlie Gehringer in JAWS (which is total WARP plus peak WARP). I’d also throw in Jackie Robinson, who’s pioneering pushes him above Gehringer.
So, my top 5 would be Nap, Eddie C, Joe M, Rajah, and Jackie.
by iblum on Nov 17, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
.266/.328/.382
as a 20 year old rookie.
And you suck.
by iblum on Nov 16, 2009 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
by comparison
Yount hit .270/.308/.364 in his first 5 years (over 800 games) before becoming the stud that eventually became a HOFer. and he didn’t have Andrus’ speed or athleticism. He also never stole 30 bases. Though he did break in 2 years younger than Elvis as an 18 year old.
Ryne Sandberg hit .266/.314/.361 over his first 2 years in the majors. and he was two years older than Elvis.
Alex Rodriguez hit .353/.414/.631 in his first full major league season with 123 RBI’s 15 stolen bases (and won a batting title). At age 20. ok, that’s just not fair. no one can be THAT good. Must be a misprint.
by iblum on Nov 16, 2009 5:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Evan Longoria
In a situation similar to Elvis’s, he got a 6 year, $17.5 million deal with three club options at $7.5 million, $11 million, and $11 million.
That was a home run for the club, and Elvis would want more than that, but the amount you are talking is way too high.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 16, 2009 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ok I was too high
I don’t think by much however. Longoria wasn’t 20/21 years old as a rookie. His contract was signed after only like a week in the majors. And because the Rays held him back a few weeks in 08 it delayed his possible free agency by a full year which saved them some money. I wonder what kind of deal he would have signed had he been up from Opening Day and waited until after the 08 season. I would imagine it would add probably 20+ million to the deal.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 16, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I challenge you
to find a contract that a player signed after his rookie year that has anywhere near that much guaranteed money.
by Randy Richardson on Nov 16, 2009 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This is crazy talk
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 16, 2009 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This is B.S. ™ Talk
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Nov 16, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This is B.S. ™ Talk
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Nov 16, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hahahahahahahahahaha
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Nov 16, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
flagged for spam
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 16, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Steve
I think you need a vacation.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 16, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
thats the truth
ehh I was a little high on my initial thought. I had forgot Longorias deal was what it was I was thinking it was 6/40 with options for some reason.
I think my basic point was valid though which is if our ownership situation was better I think now would be a good time to look into locking up Andrus for a very long time. Not just buy out one year of free agency but more like 3 or 4
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 16, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
oh well,
maybe next year (Smoak) or 2011 (Perez)
Can’t understand why Anderson got so little love, 6th place, really?
by Randy Richardson on Nov 16, 2009 1:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The voters are dumb
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 16, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
the fact that Elvis was second I think says the voters weren’t nearly as dumb as usual.
I was figuring he would be lower than that. He didn’t have good triple crown stats. He comitted a lot of errors. So to most writers, or at least what I envision for them, that would mean that he had a crappy season with little offense and no defense.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 16, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know they have to wait 10 years to vote for the HoF. . .
. . . but don’t the new wave of voters like Neyer, Law and Sheehan already have a vote for things like this? That could be a small part of it.
by philkid3 on Nov 17, 2009 8:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Christina Kharl didn't include Anderson on "her" ballot.
She also spends a bunch of time talking about how great Andrus was and how smart moving Young to third was for the team’s improvement.
Think she remembers how much she railed against that as an indefensibly stupid idea early in the season?
by philkid3 on Nov 17, 2009 9:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
x
xxx (yyy): You were pretty critical of the decision to move Michael Young off of shortstop to make room for Elvis Andrus, arguing that Young’s bat wouldn’t play at third base. Young’s bounceback year notwithstanding, do you think that the significant upgrade defensively at shortstop and third base made the switch worthwhile at the end of the day, or do you think the Rangers would have been better off living with Young’s sub-par glove at short and dealing Andrus?
Christina Kahrl: I’m confident of the fact that, in this instance, history reflects that I was wrong, wrong, wrong. Props to Jon Daniels and company, props to Young for making himself a quality third baseman, and props to Andrus and what looks like an interesting future. Even if you let a little bit (or a lot) of Texas-related inflation out of Andrus’ numbers, you have to like the upside given his age.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 17, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
2nd place isn't so bad
but let’s hope this is our last 2nd place finish, if you know what I mean
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 1:17 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I really do hope the Rangers can win a title soon...
The day Elvis signs a deal to replace Jeter as the Yankees SS of the future is the day I stop watching baseball.
by JDT217 on Nov 16, 2009 3:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
let's not think about that right now
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Nov 16, 2009 3:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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