Josh Johnson Available?
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 20, 2009 8:37 PM CST
196 comments
Cransick says that Johnson will not be signing an extension with Florida, as the negotiations have reached an impasse. The Marlins are now going to explore trade opportunities.
He is asking for a contract comparable to Greinke's 4 year, 38 million dollar deal. He had a 3.06 FIP last season and a career 3.49 FIP. He has a career K/9 around 8, walks around 2.5 per 9 innings, and he is only 25 years old. He is easily the best pitcher on the market now. I'd be willing to trade some serious prospects to acquire Johnson.
UPDATE: The Sun-Sentinel says that Johnson's days with the Marlins are numbered. His agent also says he will be traded.
3 recs |
196 comments
Email
Print
Comments
I'm definitely interested
but I’d bet they ask an arm and a leg.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 20, 2009 8:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
But I can’t blame them. Johnson is one of the single best pitchers in baseball. His 3.06 FIP is 7th in MLB, ahead of Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, and Dan Haren. He is awesome. He is one of the few people I’d consider dealing some of our best prospects in order to acquire. He is what we could only hope that Feliz, Holland, Scheppers, or Perez will become.
The one knock is that he had TJ surgery. That is something to consider. But he was healthy and absolutely filthy last season.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 20, 2009 8:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Only 2 years of team control left
And a troubling injury history.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 20, 2009 9:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
But he is allegedly asking for a contract comparable to Greinke (4 years 38 million) right now. Even given his injury risk, I still think he might be worth that risk.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 20, 2009 9:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeez.
It seems like you’re down on every single name that comes up. I mean, they can’t all be Mike Cameron.
by brettgardner on Nov 20, 2009 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 9 recs
That's because most players end up not being a good fit
At least, not at the price.
That’s part of the problem with the free agent market…because of the Winner’s Curse, you end up with most f.a. deals not working out.
Many of the players that are out there via trade would cost more than is reasonable.
I’d love to see Josh Johnson as a Ranger. But before we get too excited, we have to remember that he’s a short-term rental without a huge track record of success. I’m not sure I want to part with the type of package he’d cost, since you’re likely looking at the Marlins wanting a Teixeira-type package in return.
So it isn’t that I’m “down” on every player that is out there other than Mike Cameron. I do think that the majority of options, by far, are going to end up being expensive enough, in terms of either dollars or players, that adding them would be a rather questionable proposition.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 21, 2009 5:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
x
I guess I still don’t understand.
I think most of us would agree that the team as presently constructed probably isn’t a title contender. Thus, we need to get better. As JBImaknee said, teams generally don’t trade young guys with assloads of team control left and no injury history. So you need to find other guys. Every single one of those other guys is going to have a wart or two—they’d have to.
So you probably just have to deal from a strength to shore up a weakness, and hope you net out positive. I mean, I couldn’t give two shits about Josh Johnson, it’s just the principle.
But just sitting on our asses and hoping everything develops as planned is a fool’s strategy. Note that I’m not claiming that that’s your strategy, but it sometimes seems that you advocate making no moves out of fear that the cost will be too high, and I’m saying that’s just one side of the equation.
by brettgardner on Nov 21, 2009 6:38 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not saying sit back and do nothing
In fact, in the comment you replied to, I didn’t say “don’t go get Josh Johnson.” I was simply pointing out that he’s got some red flags that folks don’t appear to be acknowledging.
There are guys I’d like to see us target. I’d be interested in Johnson, although I think the price will be way too high, and Ricky Nolasco — who I think is likely to be about as good the next couple of years, is under team control an extra year, and who will not be nearly as expensive to trade for — would be a better target.
Cameron, we’ve talked about. Nick Johnson, I’d like to see the Rangers go after. Curtis Granderson, yes. Grady Sizemore, if the Indians decide they are rebuilding and want to move him, I’d be all over. David Wright, who has taken a bunch of criticism in New York, is a guy I’d jump at the chance of acquiring.
But guys like Dan Uggla and Edwin Jackson, who have come up lately? Bleah.
I’m not going to just jump on the “yeah, we need to go get so-and-so” whenever a name pops up.
And I will acknowledge that part of it is that there are guys in the organization I’m excited to see succeed and want to see succeed here. On July 31, nobody here wanted to let Derek Holland go, and Neftali Feliz was the one everyone wanted to put in a deal. Now, all the sudden, Holland is behind Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers are the depth chart and is the guy everyone seems to want to trade, and Feliz is untouchable.
If the right deal is out there, I’d like to see it made. And I’m realistic to know that a top level player is going to require us to part with talent that is going to hurt.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 21, 2009 6:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
x
I don’t think anyone “wants” to trade any of those guys, it’s just the realities that you mention that necessitate it. We would all love to see Holland, Feliz, Scheppers, and Perez backing up the super ace McCarthy, but it’s all about the risk.
And sure, I’m not trying to say that you should jump on the latest bandwagon every time, but it seems like you’re sometimes so anti-bandwagon that you’d prevent anything from happening.
Fortunately, we can agree on Sizemore, Wright, Granderson, and Johnson.
by brettgardner on Nov 21, 2009 7:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Can we talk Grady Sizmore for a second
Has it been mentioned anywhere that the Indians would be willing to move him?
Teagarden, Borbon, Perez, plus another top level prospect… Is this the type of package were looking at?
by tyd3311 on Nov 21, 2009 7:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Teagarden has no value right now
Sizemore is under contract for 3 more years at about 1/2-1/3 what he’d make as a free agent.
Perez, Borbon, Beltre, and Ross.
That might not be enough, though. Might have to put in Smoak instead of Borbon.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 21, 2009 7:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't LaPorta locked in at 1st?
I’d give up another decent prospect to keep Smoak and trade Davis in any deal.
by tyd3311 on Nov 21, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sizemore
No way he would get $65 million for 3 years as a free agent.
He might get 3 years, $43 million (the low end of your range), but his production when down last year before he was shut down, he was operated on twice, and his defense is overrated.
I wouldn’t mind getting him, but he’s not the prize he was two years ago.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 8:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He'd get better than 3 years, $43 million
I think you are way underrating him. If he were a free agent, he’d probably get more than Matt Holliday is about to get.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 21, 2009 8:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sizemore
I’m not sure Sizemore would get more than Holliday. Holliday is a better hitter, and is actually a plus LF while Sizemore is now a minus CF. I understand the positional value Sizemore brings as a CF, but his UZR/150 has gone from 2.8 to 0.9 to -4.0, so how much longer is he a CF?
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 9:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sizemore
He’s also three years younger than Holliday, and has been above-average defensively in CF until this past year when he was hurt.
You’re talking about a guy who just finished his age 26 season, who gets on base, hits for power, and plays a premier defensive position (and has a reputation for playing it very well).
He’s a better player than Holliday and is younger than Holliday. He’s better than Torii Hunter was when Hunter went on the market. He’s similar to Beltran when Beltran went on the market, but is a year younger.
You could compare him to Soriano, who got 8 years, $136 million, despite being older, inferior offensively, and inferior defensively.
In 2008, David Cameron has him as having the 3rd highest trade value in baseball. In 2009, he had him at 12th.
Even coming off the injury, you’re talking about a guy just entering his peak years who does everything well. I think the BoSox would give him 8 years, $150 million without batting an eye.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 21, 2009 10:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldnt trade Perez for anything at this point
Fuck Mike Estabrook
by Horns130 on Nov 26, 2009 4:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i seriously doubt they move him
from what i understand isnt he the cleveland michael young (except, ya know really good) in the fans eyes there
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2009 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Teams don't trade players
who have 3 or 4 years of team control left with no injury history. At least not any teams I’m aware of.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 20, 2009 11:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tball he is one of the few that you spend high quality prospects on,
imo.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
by NYTXFAN on Nov 20, 2009 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah
I’d give up a lot to get him, but that negotiation would make me sweat.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 20, 2009 9:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What's a lot?
If that’s not some kind of “hometown discount” exclusive to the Marlins and he would accept a contract like that from another team then I would have to think about getting seriously involved in this if I was the Rangers. The question is, what kind of package would it take? Are we talking Halladay rumor compensation?
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
by txhc on Nov 20, 2009 10:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
I’d be willing to give up quite a bit, but if they insisted on one of Feliz, Perez or Smoak I’d have to decline. No guarantee we can resign him after all.
But anyone else is pretty much fair game.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 10:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Would you give up Holland if that's what it took?
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
by txhc on Nov 20, 2009 10:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
In fact I imagine that’s who you’d have to base the deal around.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 10:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How much in addition to Holland
do you think it would take? Any time one of the big 4 are mentioned in trade talks the hairs on the back of my neck stand up.
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
by txhc on Nov 20, 2009 10:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just a shot in the dark...
Holland + Salty/Tea + Kiker + Engel Beltre
Maybe I’m undervaluing Beltre, but he seems more like a wildcard than a prospect at this stage.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 10:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Whew.
I think that sounds about right. Four prospects though? Man. Johnson is really awesome though. The only thing that I’m iffy on is his injury history. If they would take that package minus Kiker, I think I might have to pull the trigger.
Still I hate even talking about trading any one of the four. I’m having trouble typing right now, lol.
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
by txhc on Nov 20, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Beltre is the kind of guy I don't give up if Florida is asking for him
They always seem to get guys that turn out really really good and we’ve always heard about Beltres tools. Only if Johnson signs an extension do I part with Beltre IF Florida is asking for him
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 20, 2009 10:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
I’m not a Beltre fan because of his utter lack of plate discipline. I think he’s a better trade chip than he is a prospect, and he’s the type of toolsy/speedy guy that gets tacked onto these deals to get ’em done.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 10:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know its still bad but his BB% did improve from 2.5% to 4.4% this past season
Like I said I would be very leery of giving him up if a team like Florida is asking for him. Because he has the tools to become a very good player. Unless we could sign Johnson to an extension I don’t know if I would give him up along with whatever else it would take.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 20, 2009 11:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if Beltre still has enough value to be a trade chip
I’ll trade him in a heartbeat. He has “raw” tools, yes, but the man just can’t hit a baseball enough to warrant prospect status
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Nov 21, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
in a heartbeat
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2009 4:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I could live with the departure of Perez for Josh Johnson
by tyd3311 on Nov 20, 2009 10:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Never
I’d give up Smoak
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
by sprite on Nov 20, 2009 10:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Never
His odds of having a hall of fame caliber career are very good. They have to be even higher than the ~33% chance as soon as he was drafted.
by tyd3311 on Nov 20, 2009 10:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
33% chance of having a hall of fame caliber career?
Surely you can’t be serious…
At this point, I’d put Teixeira at a ~30% chance max of being a hall of famer. And Smoak’s odds of being Teixeira level can’t be more than 10-20%.
Smoak is going to be very good. I’m not expecting to see him in Cooperstown in 2033 quite yet…
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 20, 2009 11:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not a Hall of Famer, but a HOF-caliber career, however that is defined
“College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.”
by tyd3311 on Nov 20, 2009 11:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
Where is that quote from? That’s just silliness. Maybe 1/3 of college first baseman 1st round picks end up with a HOF vote or two. But there are only 20 or so first basemen in the HOF, and only a handful (at most) of those were even drafted.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 20, 2009 11:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
okay
the draft as we know it started in 1965. The only first baseman to be elected who was drafted after 1965 is Eddie Murray, and he wasn’t a first rounder. Frank Thomas was a first rounder, and he’ll be in there, so was Todd Helton, who may get in. Berkman and Teixeira are outside shot first rounder first basemen.
I have no idea where the 33% chance for HOF caliber came from, but I’m thinking that’s four or five times too optimistic…
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 20, 2009 11:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
From 1990 to 2005
I counted 14 1b drafted in the first round (not including supplemental) out of 4 year colleges. Only two (Berkman and Helton) could be considered HOF caliber.
(note: Teixeira was drafted as a third baseman)
I know I’m being grumpily anti-Smoak right now; I just like throwing cold water on certain prospect’s HOF chances
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 21, 2009 12:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It comes from a 2006 Baseball Prospectus draft article
by tyd3311 on Nov 21, 2009 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well
just goes to show that by varying the years (I looked at 90-05 vs 84-99) you can get dramatically different results. Since I started at 90, I didn’t get Thomas or Clark and no good names popped up in the five other years I looked (though Teixeira is a special case and maybe should count).
I still contend that there is no predictive power when it comes to “HOF caliber” talent. HOFers are so extremely rare (probably one per draft, on average) that extracting any meaningful statistics would take centuries; not 15 years of data points. I think that is a poor claim by Rany in an otherwise nice set of articles (which I remember reading a long time ago now).
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 21, 2009 12:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They're gonna ask for a high-quality arm in return
by oc on Nov 20, 2009 10:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fine
Give them Feliz
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
by sprite on Nov 20, 2009 10:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hell naw, man.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
by coolaid on Nov 20, 2009 10:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd trade Feliz before Holland
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
by sprite on Nov 20, 2009 10:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would
give up Scheppers/Main before Feliz and Holland.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
by coolaid on Nov 20, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Easy, don't go too far out on that limb
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
by sprite on Nov 20, 2009 10:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, now that I think about it you can’t trade Scheppers becasue he has been signed for less then 6 months so he can’t be a PTBNL.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
by coolaid on Nov 20, 2009 10:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fortunately you can't trade Scheppers
for another year.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 20, 2009 11:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with your disagreement
I’m bored
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
by sprite on Nov 20, 2009 10:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd trade Holland
before any of Feliz, Scheppers, or Perez. You coudn’t pry Feliz out of me with anyone short of Lincecum.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 20, 2009 11:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
why?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2009 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's only wanting a Greinke contract?
Easy to take on his injury risk with contract demands like that.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
by rooster on Nov 20, 2009 9:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I love, love, love Josh Johnson
Dude has killer stuff, good control, and induces friendly contact (50% GB, 17% LD). He had a TRA of 3.41 last year. For comparison’s sake, Justin Verlander had a 3.42 (in the AL, but nevertheless, a 3.41 is awesome). The injury risks are rare, but every player has a caveat. Johnson’s one of the rare few I would part with Smoak, Feliz, or Holland for.
by Conjunction on Nov 20, 2009 9:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I think Johnson is in a rare group of starters for whom I’d consider trading one of Perez, Smoak, Holland, etc to acquire. His injury history is a very serious concern. But he really came back strong last season and looked tremendous.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 20, 2009 9:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would not want to give up Perez in this deal
because I don’t feel like he’s valued around the league near as much as Feliz, Holland, and Smoak. Because they already have Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez, I think they are going to start by asking for Feliz, Holland, or Kinsler.
by ramjam36 on Nov 21, 2009 9:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt they would ask for Kinsler
They already have a young and cheap 2b that is one of the major reasons they are looking to trade Uggla.
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 21, 2009 9:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well coughlin can play 2b/3b/OF
just as a fwiw
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Nov 22, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
* wipes drool from mouth *
How man years of control are left on him?
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 9:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
2
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 20, 2009 9:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thx
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 9:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak, Kiker, Harrison
That would probably do it, I think.
by Conjunction on Nov 20, 2009 10:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
On second thought, it would probably take more
Maybe an addition of Beltre.
by Conjunction on Nov 20, 2009 10:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dont the Marlins have a 1B prospect on the near horizon?
Smoak may not fit a need of theirs
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 20, 2009 10:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they've got Logan Morrison
And Gaby Sanchez too.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 10:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Please no trading of the only decent prospect in our system with any kind of plate approach
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 10:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would hate to part with Smoak
But I’m loathe to deal Perez, Holland, or Feliz.
by Conjunction on Nov 20, 2009 10:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So would everyone else
but we at least have depth there if it came down to it. We really can’t afford to lose Smoak’s bat.
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
by txhc on Nov 20, 2009 10:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 10:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
We will always be able to afford the loss of an elite bat more than an elite pitching talent.
Always.
I repeat, always.
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Nov 21, 2009 9:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We can't afford to sign new batboys anymore man.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 21, 2009 10:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
why won't the marlins give him that contract?
i think they’re just looking for stellar deals but will most likely just extend him.
either that or marlins ownership sucks
by ab03 on Nov 20, 2009 10:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Supposedly Johnson wanted 4yrs 40mm
Florida was offering 3yrs 22mm.
I don’t think you need this latest problem to conclude that Florida’s ownership sucks.
by LiamP on Nov 20, 2009 10:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No shit...
I would easily give him a 4/40 contract right now. Without thinking twice.
His performance makes his injury history worth the risk imo.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 20, 2009 11:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+ infinity
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Nov 20, 2009 11:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
either that or marlins ownership sucks
….. ……………
by tyd3311 on Nov 20, 2009 10:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You really don't know about Jeffrey Loria, do ya
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 20, 2009 10:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it's not like the marlins have never spent on a FA
i seem to remember a couple of fairly big contracts
when i said ownership, i meant management
by ab03 on Nov 21, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Remember that Carlos Delgado signing (who was talked of coming to Texas at the time?
Circumstances:
Fresh off a WS title.
Facts:
The deal was backloaded and they dumped him to the Mets the very next year (along with almost all of their good arb-elegible players)
by chrisR on Nov 22, 2009 12:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
*not all of them went to the Mets
Duh! Stupid me!
by chrisR on Nov 22, 2009 12:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would trade almost anything they ask
Give them Holland, Smoak, and a low minor leaguer. I want Johnson desperately.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Nov 20, 2009 11:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Then his shoulder blows back up....
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 20, 2009 11:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's a young frontline starter
Besides the injury risk, he is as close to a sure thing at the top of a rotation as you can get. I’ll roll the dice.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on Nov 20, 2009 11:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hell... people say Scheppers is a ticking time bomb
and his dude’s shoulder already blew up once. He’s really good but that’s one hell of an injury risk.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 20, 2009 11:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait... the guy with the f'ed up shoulder is Anibal Sanchez
But Johnson has had alot of elbow problems
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 20, 2009 11:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I seriously doubt that you'd have to give up both of those guys.
If that’s what the Marlins are demanding, then fuck ’em.
by LiamP on Nov 20, 2009 11:50 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
+1,000
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 21, 2009 12:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sun-Sentinel says Johnson's days with Florida are numbered
Here. And his agent gives this nice little quote:
“They’ll trade [Johnson] and get prospects back for him. There are going to be a lot of teams calling in the next couple of days”
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 20, 2009 11:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The parts that stood out to me were
This
“No one’s getting any kind of a discount now," said Sosnick, who also represents Ricky Nolasco. "This was the last chance for a team to get a bargain for Josh… They money wasn’t even the issue. It was shocking they wouldn’t do a fourth year. Josh Johnson is going to sign one of the biggest free agent pitching deals in history.”
And this
So why close the door on a long-term deal when Johnson is under team control for two more seasons? Sosnick said next offseason it would take a seven-year commitment well north of the $100 million mark to retain Johnson.
I figured that was probably a discounted price that was being reported. Who knows if his agent is bluffing on that or not, but if he isn’t then I’m not giving up top talent for 2 years or less, screw that.
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
by txhc on Nov 20, 2009 11:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
His agent came off terribly in those quotes. I think he is trying to force a trade. He knows that his client could get a 4 year 45 million type contract right now if he was with almost any another team. I think a lot of his threatening is just posturing aimed at forcing the Marlin’s hand; either they trade him to a team that will meet their contract demands or they want the Marlins to pony up immediately.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 21, 2009 12:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully
But if he’s really got his heart set on hitting the FA market a la Teixeira, my interest in him just plummeted.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 21, 2009 12:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if he necessarily has his heart set on it
But he is doing what a smart person would do. Maximize the amount of money you can make. Right now a 4 year deal is a perfect length of extension to not only make himself alot of money but also still leave him at an age that he will be, barring injury, very in demand when that contract runs out.
However if you wait a year then that same 4 year extension pushes you to age 30 which isn’t terribly bad but with his injury history all it would take is one or two small injuries over the last couple years and his value drops considerably. Thats why they would be going after a long term deal.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 21, 2009 12:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
As was said, this could be just him wanting to get out of that Florida hellhole to a team that’ll give him his due. If that’s the case, and he’s opening to signing an extension once he comes here, I’m all over it.
Then again, I’m sure that’s what Braves fans said about Tex. And perhaps I’m taking this too much at face value, but that’s what this suddenly smells like, after reading that article. Either that or his agent is just really, really flamboyant.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 21, 2009 12:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tex never mentioned hometown discount in any way shape or form
Johnson did. That alone tells me hes not just trying to get out of town as fast as possible
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 21, 2009 12:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
The more I sit here and think about it, the more I think that’s just a ploy to get the Marlins to pony up the cash he’s asking for. Because if it isn’t, then that did nothing but hurt his value. I don’t see why his agent would go public with statements like that unless it was purely to get Florida to pay up.
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
by txhc on Nov 21, 2009 12:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How did he hurt his value?
If they don’t pony up right now he stills gets his arbitration money. Then next winter if they don’t pony up for a 7 year deal (basically a 6 year FA contract added onto his last arbitration) he still gets his last arbitration and then can go to free agency after 2011 as a 27 year old TORP.
All hes doing is trying to maximize his earning potential.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 21, 2009 12:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well I guess he didn't hurt his value.
But I guess what I meant is if the Marlins don’t pay him and decide to trade him instead, those statements might scare teams off or at least make it so that most teams won’t give up as much to get him. So if anything it hurt his trade value as far as what the Marlins could get in return, probably didn’t hurt his earning potential at all though. Which is why I think this is nothing more than a ploy to get them to pay up.
Jimmy Johnson for GM.
by txhc on Nov 21, 2009 12:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson
His agent is doing just what he should be doing. Right now Johnson is 25. He will be a free agent at the age of 27. If he signs a FA deal it would most likely take him through age 33. They were willing to do a 4 year deal now which would still make him a FA at 29 years old. Young enough to still get a 6 year deal to take him to age 35 or so. But what the agent is now saying is if it waits till next winter they are going to treat that like his big FA deal and go for 7 years which would take him through age 33
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 21, 2009 12:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree completely
Plus, given his injury history, his agent would be wise to ensure he gets 40+ million right now to set him for life. Signing a 4 year deal right now maximizes his career earning power and protects him in the event that he gets injured.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 21, 2009 12:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's what it smells like to me.
Johnson and his agent are doing everything right. It is in the Marlins’ best interest to act quickly, imo. Either they break the bank because he is worth it or they will lose a SHIT ton of value as the years go by.
From the agent’s perspective, the only thing to worry about is injury. That’s why he is pressuring management now.
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Nov 21, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And of course, if he IS traded ...
It would be surprising to me if he didn’t receive an immediate 4 year deal from his new team. It is the logical move to make by the agent. As someone said earlier, almost any team would lock this guy up, excepting the Marlins. Josh Johnson will get paid, and paid twice.
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by Chase Irwin on Nov 21, 2009 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't mind giving up
Holland + a catcher + Kiker/Ross for him. I’d happily do Borbon or Cruz instead of Holland, if that is what they wanted.
No Feliz, Perez, or Smoak though.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Nov 20, 2009 11:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
that's about the way I feel
I’d probably go ahead and do Holland plus Borbon plus a couple of the others that you mention, but I’d probably put Feliz and Perez as untouchables. If they insisted on Smoak, rather than Holland, that would be a tough call.
Favorite bumper sticker of all time, seen on a VW bus:
"Gas, Grass, or Ass. Nobody rides for free"
by tricer on Nov 21, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
they won't ask for Smoak
their 2nd best prospect is a 1b, and obviously they can’t DH.
by Sherman McCoy on Nov 21, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised so many of you didn't share this love for Greinke
by Agreen07 on Nov 21, 2009 1:39 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
This.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Nov 21, 2009 1:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think a lot of this love for Johnson is because people feel they missed the boat on not wanting to trade for Grink
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
"...he wasn’t a good hitter, just a good middle of the order bat that hit a lot of homers." - NYTXFAN on Mark McGwire
by lonestarJon on Nov 21, 2009 2:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Who didn't want Greinke?
The problem with you and oc constantly saying we should have traded for him is that he was never available. Stop with this myth that he could have been had.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 21, 2009 2:25 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Except
Greinke was never offered for trade.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Nov 21, 2009 5:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Johnson hasn't been offered for trade
by Agreen07 on Nov 21, 2009 10:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but
he is seemingly much much more available than Greinke was
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Nov 21, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson
Derek Holland, Nelson Cruz, Tommy Hunter and a catcher (Max Ramirez was the one they were interested in last year, although that was before his lost 2009 season).
I’d give them their pick of Hunter, McCarthy, Harrison, and Beavan, but I suspect they would take Hunter.
That gives you a rotation of Johnson, Feldman, Millwood, Feliz and either Wilson, McCarthy or Harrison (or Hunter, if they take on of the other guys). You would also have the option, budget permitting, to still try to add Sheets and have a rotation of Johnson, Feldman, Millwood, Feliz , and Sheets.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 9:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Only problem with that is I'm not sure the Marlins would want Cruz
Isn’t Cruz getting close to his arbitration years himself?
What do voluntary mean?
by JKolar on Nov 21, 2009 9:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz
He’s got this year left before arbitration, and he probably wouldn’t be too expensive as a first year arbitration case (and if he was, it would mean he had a really good 2010 season, and thus would have increased in value and they could turn around and flip him for even more value if they wanted).
Seems to me like the Marlins would have interest in him after trading Jeremy Hermida to Boston. I suspect they want a couple guys back who can actually help them in 2010, given they finished second in the NL East in 2009 and aren’t necessarily in a complete rebuilding mode.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 12:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Way too much to give up
I don’t want Feliz starting the season in the rotation
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 21, 2009 11:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson
Well, I don’t think you are getting him for less than that, and I’m not sure the package I suggested even does it.
This is a 25-year old top-of-the-rotation pitcher. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if it was Holland and Smoak or no deal.
If Feliz is one of our best five pitchers in April, he needs to be in the rotation.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 12:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They have zero use for Smoak
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Nov 21, 2009 1:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak
Yeah, you’re right. I forgot about Morrison and Sanchez.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 1:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
then sometimes you just have to walk away...
just like with Halladay this season
Fuck Mike Estabrook
by Horns130 on Nov 26, 2009 4:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Phils didn't give up one of their "big 4" for Cliff Lee
Couldn’t we figure something out w/o including one of ours? Also, I’m assuming he’s gives us the opportunity to sign him to a 4/40 extension.
by Sherman McCoy on Nov 21, 2009 10:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Johnson is way younger, just as good, and under control longer
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 21, 2009 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well technically, he only has 2 years left...so basically it is the same
Fuck Mike Estabrook
by Horns130 on Nov 26, 2009 4:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Moscoso, Teagarden, Cruz, and Kiker
If they want Beltre that’s fine. I’d be willing to give up McCarthy, but I’d try my darnedest to hold onto Hollad, Feliz and Perez. Surely they can be bought with numbers rather than stick to one in demand arm.
Holland = Beltre and Moscoso or Poveda
Something like that.
by Hull Fan on Nov 21, 2009 11:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I don't have a problem giving up Holland
Because we would be replacing one young starter with another one. Especially if we could get an extension signed. Johnson is everything we could hope Johnson already is.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 21, 2009 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that deal gets it done
And you are also now putting yourself in a position where you have even more OF/DH holes
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 21, 2009 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Moscoso, Teagarden, Cruz, and Kiker
That’s not even close. When you factor in age, salary and years of control, Johnson may be more valuable than Halladay was.
And there’s no way that Holland = Beltre and Moscoso or Poveda. Would you trade Derek Holland away for the equivalent of Beltre and Moscoso or Poveda?
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 12:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just meant in this scenario
If they ask for Holland I’d give them both Beltre and Moscoso rather than him. So in effect it’s a six man trade instead of four.
by Hull Fan on Nov 21, 2009 6:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't make sense
If you wouldn’t trade Holland for the equivalent of Beltre and Moscoso or Poveda, then why would the Marlins take those two instead of Holland?
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 8:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Because it's not just those two
In effect you’re trading six guys for one rather than four guys. Buying quantity rather than quality. No I would not trade Holland for those two and neither would the Rangers. I’m saying give them a list of a dozen plus names and say pick your six. That list would leave off Holland, Smoak, Feliz, and hopefully Perez. It would include guys like Beltre, Harrison, McCarthy, Ramirez, and what have you.
Texas isn’t bidding by themselves. They don’t have to blow Florida’s doors off. They just have to have the highest offer of interested teams. Perhaps, Florida will hold on to them and deal them at the deadline but I don’t think so. Feliz, Andrus and company weren’t that close to the majors or that highly regarded nationally when the Tex deal was made. They said no to dealing Tommy Hanson, we can say no to dealing Holland, Smoak, and Feliz.
An AA arm, and a couple of guys who were in Low A is what we got in return. There aren’t going to be anymore huge Tex deals out there. Philly didn’t for Cliff Lee, Toronto couldn’t for Halladay, Oakland didn’t for Harden, and even Chicago didn’t for Jake Peavy. The Rangers aren’t the desperate team in this scenario and the market has seriously changed because of the economy.
Johnson and Nolasco will each net something nice but my contention is it won’t be anywhere near what it might have been two years ago.
by Hull Fan on Nov 23, 2009 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Marlins
aren’t going to take 6 guys instead of 4 just to say they got more guys. Your offer is like a fantasy sports trade where you trick the new guy into accepting a trade because you offer 9 guys
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 25, 2009 5:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How about
we trade no one and wait to see our prospects develop.
I am not interested in trading for a TORP because it would cost us too much.
My top two priorities this off-season is 1. Sheets 2. Bradley
by Coolbean04 on Nov 21, 2009 12:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Because there is inherent risk with them.
And while there is inherent risk with Josh Johnson, it is less than with Sheets or Bradley. That’s why if he was a free agent right now, he would get a contract for more than 5 years. Whereas with Sheets or Bradley, they wouldn’t get more than 2 years (maybe a 3rd option year).
You can’t just look at the ceilings of players.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Nov 21, 2009 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oops I hit enter by accident
What’s better risk?
Sheets while giving up nothing.
Johnson while giving top prospects?
You’re just looking at risk/reward by comparing pitchers but you also have to look at what you’re giving up in talent and money.
by Coolbean04 on Nov 21, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson vs. Sheets
First, I don’t think adding one of them precludes adding the other. If you trade for Johnson, the deal will probably require trading at least one, if not two, of the pitchers who project to be in our opening day rotation. We could trade Holland and Hunter in a Johnson deal, and then replace them with Johnson and Sheets in the rotation.
Second, the money is probably about the same. I suspect that Johnson’s base salary in 2010 won’t be much different from Sheets’ base salary, and Sheet will have the potential to earn signifiantly more in incentives.
There is a difference in talent you would be giving up (none vs. a lot), but again I don’t view it as an “either, or” situation.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with that is
that all of our available funds would be used up.
Remember, hitting was our problem this year so we should spend on that.
If we got Sheets and Johnson while trading Millwood for Bradley. Does that put us over salary limit? How much would we have left to spend?
by Coolbean04 on Nov 21, 2009 2:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Available funds
I have no idea what our available funds are, actually.
If you traded for Johnson and signed Sheets, that’s probably about $10 million in total base salary for 2010.
Assuming that’s all the money we have available, and then looking at the free agent hitters available, you would probably be choosing between adding those two guys or someone like Nick Johnson or Mike Cameron.
I would personally rather go into the season with a rotation of Johnson, Feldman, Millwood, Sheets and Feliz, with McCarthy and Harrison as the 6th and 7th options, and hope for internal improvement in the offense, rather than sign one free agent hitter and pass up what would be a significant pitching upgrade.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I've seen you say this earlier.
But I don’t think it takes Holland and Hunter. If you added Hunter, you would probably include a younger prospect. You just don’t give up what will likely be 2 above average arms next year for one pitcher. Especially since Florida already has 5-6 promising young pitchers with major league experience.
Realistically, they probably either want Holland and younger prospects or Perez and somebody closer to the majors. They don’t have that many holes in their lineup.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Nov 21, 2009 2:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just curious
Would you trade Holland, Kinsler, Perez, a catcher, Kiker, Beltre for Johnson, Uggla, Nolasco.
Holland < Johnson
Kinsler > Uggla
Perez < Nolasco
Catcher they prefer
Kiker
Beltre
I think Kinsler has a lot more value than Uggla and FLA could either keep him or trade him for more solid pieces.
It really stinks losing Holland and Perez but we could only dream that Holland and Perez can have the success Johnson and Nolasco has had.
by Coolbean04 on Nov 21, 2009 3:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that works.
For multiple reasons. First, you would only do that deal if you could extend Nolasco and Johnson, and I’m not sure the Rangers could afford to do that. Also, while the Marlins would be losing some potential salary, I’m not even 100% positive that their owner would be ok with Kinsler’s salary over the next few years (10: 4M, 11: 6M, 12: 7M, 13: 10M with 3M buyout). Obviously >95% of teams would, but the Marlins are that cheap. So there’s money issues.
Second, while the Marlins would be getting a very good amount of talent, especially those Top25 type prospects that teams are always looking for in these deals, I’m not sure that they couldn’t get more than the Rangers offer if they traded those players off individually. For instance, Johnson could net them Holland plus other good prospects. Uggla could net them a Tea/Kiker/Beltre type package. Nolasco returns something similar to Johnson, though maybe a bit farther from the majors. So it runs into issues of maximizing return for the Marlins.
Finally, I’m not sure if it makes sense for the Rangers to trade away someone like Kinsler. Considering their current pitching situation, I’m not sure it makes sense to give up a power hitting second baseman to accelerate your pitching development schedule. Especially since you would then have a dearth of high-level prospects to replace injured pitchers or those that left in free agency.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Nov 21, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I figured I'd throw it out there
to see peoples reactions just because a lot of people around here are really high on Johnson and Nolasco.
by Coolbean04 on Nov 21, 2009 3:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
let me see....
fuck no
Fuck Mike Estabrook
by Horns130 on Nov 26, 2009 4:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Holland and Hunter
I think you give up two above average arms for a 25-year old top of the rotation pitcher any day of the week, particularly when you are then left with Feldman, Millwood, Feliz, Wilson, McCarthy, Harrison and the potential to sign Sheets for the other four spots.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather give them Harrison than
Hunter. Millwood probably won’t be back. Feldman is going to begin to cost some money and there’s no guarantee Wilson will be in the rotation.
Johnson’s never pitched in the AL and that makes a difference. I’m also not ready to give up on Holland after the flashes of brilliance he showed last year.
Josh Johnson is a guy this team wants and needs, but I doubt they’re going to be willing to pay the required price to get him.
by Hull Fan on Nov 21, 2009 6:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Harrison
I would rather give up Harrison than Hunter as well, but why would Marlins go for that?
It’s like your suggestion of replacing Holland with Beltre and Moscoso; it’s great for us, but Florida isn’t going to go for it.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 21, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
in what way is holland average?
Fuck Mike Estabrook
by Horns130 on Nov 26, 2009 4:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No Perez/Holland/Smoak trades
thank you.
usa
by Longhorn on Nov 21, 2009 2:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Adam
Were Greinke’s red flags such that you weren’t on board with the idea giving up a lot to get him a year and a half ago? I can’t remember if you weighed in at the time (though I’m guessing someone here can find the thread).
by Jamey Newberg on Nov 22, 2009 9:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Greinke
The fact that he had two years left before he could walk were my main concern with him.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 22, 2009 10:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe not...
after the season he had this year.
But I shared that same concern last year.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 22, 2009 11:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
After 2008, when this team was looking at 2009 as a rebuilding year and a season where it wasn’t expecting to contend, the idea of moving significant young pieces for a guy who could walk after 2010 was troubling.
It is less of an issue now, given that you figure 2010-11 the team should be expecting to be a playoff contender.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 22, 2009 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was (and still am) extremely annoyed with this place for thinking Greinke would be a tough guy to re-up
by oc on Nov 22, 2009 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was
and still am extremely annoyed at the folks who seemed to think he was actually available for a trade.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Nov 22, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Greinke
I don’t recall seeing any suggested Greinke deals that would have been even close to getting a deal done for him.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 23, 2009 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Its especially not reported
if a player isn’t even available for trade.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Nov 24, 2009 3:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Greinke
I was actually referring to the trades suggested here, your site and other blogs. I don’t think any of them would have been close to getting something done.
I have real doubts as to whether he was even available.
by Darrell McKown on Nov 24, 2009 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why is everyone so willing to move Holland?
Yeah, he struggled. He showed flashes of brilliance though.
by UNTJosh on Nov 26, 2009 2:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
simple
if you are going to trade one of feliz, smoak, holland and perez
holland is the clear choice for many, including me
Fuck Mike Estabrook
by Horns130 on Nov 26, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
Smoak is a scarce commodity for us right now, and among Perez, Feliz and Dutch it’s a simple matter of ceiling. Perez and Feliz have higher ones.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
by lonestarJon on Nov 26, 2009 8:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How exactly...
do you figure that Feliz and Perez have higher ceilings?
I’m pretty sure that’s a simple matter of opinion.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 26, 2009 10:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We've heard Feliz and Perez have much more special stuff than Holland for awhile now.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Dutch. A ton. He’s probably my personal favorite of the trio. But we keep hearing that Perez and Feliz are the one’s with true #1 potential, wheras Holland falls more into the mold of a #2/very good #3.
Of course, Feliz has people pigeonholing him into the bullpen which decreases his value in some folks eyes, but personally I don’t think there’s any way he doesn’t stick in the rotation just so long as he’s actually given a fair chance to start. So from where I’m standing, in the baseball sense Holland is the one I’d be willing to deal should the right blockbuster come along.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
by lonestarJon on Nov 26, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Where are you hearing/seeing this?
Pretty much everyone I’ve read said they all have TORP potential. Everyone has an opinion on their stuff, but to say that Holland will top out at a 2/3 while Feliz and Perez could be 1’s is wrong imo.
In fact the questions I remember where about Feliz’s secondary pitches while we heard that Holland was a more polished pitcher. That’s why he was up here first and in the rotation. Remember? All 3 have TORP stuff imo and the Rangers should do everything they can to hold onto Andrus, Smoak, Feliz, Holland, and Perez.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 26, 2009 11:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't really recall a source I can link
But that’s been the consensus for awhile, I thought. Being the more polished pitcher doesn’t necessarily mean having the higher ceiling, and it’s always seemed like most of the guys like Parks and Dirkatron, ext. thought Feliz had the higher ceiling even though there was a stretch when we where ranking Holland over him b/c of Feliz’s raw secondary stuff.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
by lonestarJon on Nov 26, 2009 11:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Look...
if I were to rank them I’d have it Feliz/Perez/Holland. However I also think that Holland is clearly in that top tier of pitching prospects with Feliz and Perez too. I don’t think there is enough of a distinction between the three to say Holland is clearly the guy to deal of the 3.
I don’t think there’s that same consensus that you do. I think some people saw Holland take his bumps this year and were a little scared of by it. I wasn’t. In fact, I’m just as worried about the drop in velocity that we saw from Feliz between the time he made his debut and the end of the season.
If you think Feliz and Perez have a higher ceiling than Holland that’s fine. That’s your opinion. I just don’t think it’s as clear cut as you and Horns make it out to be. No big deal.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 26, 2009 11:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
Most scouts and baseball people thought before last year anyway that his ceiling was as a #2.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 27, 2009 8:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
He doesn’t really have a plus pitch (hopefully FB command will come around and he’ll then have one), much less two or three, how can he be a TORP?
Favorite bumper sticker of all time, seen on a VW bus:
"Gas, Grass, or Ass. Nobody rides for free"
by tricer on Nov 27, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think his slider can become above average but
that change needs a ton of work. Would also like to see his new curve sharpen up some.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 27, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Heh
I’d sure hate to have a cheap #2 starter on the team.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 27, 2009 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not the point
the point is that he doesnt have the upside of either feliz or Perez and despite what SLC is saying, that is a fact
Fuck Mike Estabrook
by Horns130 on Nov 27, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
when every public system would state those 2 have more upside....it is a fact
Fuck Mike Estabrook
by Horns130 on Nov 27, 2009 9:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay?
Link?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 27, 2009 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We're all beating a dead horse here
But even I’ll admit that there’s really no “facts” when it comes to estimated prospect upside. I’d say it’s more of a widely accepted opinion.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
by lonestarJon on Nov 27, 2009 10:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
According to Perrotto Johnson is now on the block
get it done
by UNTJosh on Nov 27, 2009 7:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
