2010 ZiPS projections for the Texas Rangers

I nearly spit out my coffee seeing Moscoso ranked that high. I’m somewhat optimistic about his contributions being positive, but maybe not to that degree.

ZiPS and Bill James both seem to think that Josh Hamilton is more or less done. Wonderful.

at about 5 different levels.

Who knows what could happen between now and feb 14th…

Can’t say I am familiar with ZiPS projections. Have they shown to be pretty accurate in that past?

an OPS+ 95 1B.

Spectacular.

That would definitely point towards picking up an extra bat or 2, and be ready to replace CD.

With the offense:
I think Murphy’s going to improve a bit next season and will likely move into more of a platoon role as long as Hamilton is healthy. I wouldn’t expect his OPS+ to drop to below average next season. Elvis is going to be much better next season. We’re going to see numbers as good as (if not better) than his second half numbers this past season. I also expect him to reach the 40+ SB mark rather than end up with a couple less SBs (while not getting caught much). Borbon isn’t going to get that much worse next season if at all. I definitely don’t expect his OBP to drop 40 points and his SLG to drop 50 points. Borbon’s lack of power stats in the minors probably hurts him here, but he’s got more power than he showed then.

The defense:
With Davis offensively, I realize that he could be anywhere from horrible to amazing and I admittedly don’t completely get the defensive projections, but it looks like Davis’ defense at first is really being sold short. It looks like the same is happening with Cruz, Kinsler, and the catchers. The team defense last season looks like it was the biggest reasoning behind the lackluster projections for the Rangers and it looks like they still aren’t giving them quite enough credit. Of course, I could be looking at it completely wrong.

The pitching:
It looks like its all over the place. The rotation is going to only have 3 pitchers who have above average ERAs with one being Moscoso (ughh, what???) and another being Feliz who only makes 19 starts. Basically, the good starters are going to all get much worse while the bad starters are going to be bad, but maybe not as bad. And if El Duque is posting a 99 ERA+, Holland is going to have a 150 ERA+. The reliever projections are more or less reasonable. I think FX2 and CJ are going to be better than their projections, but that’s about it.

On a side note, would it kill him to get rid of the players that aren’t actually on the team anymore from the projections page?

382 AB’s, 8 HR’s and 40 RBI’s…. IN 11 GAMES

I wouldn’t pay much attention to ERAs for pitchers. They don’t seem to be too indicative of what he’s really projecting. I think that the FIPS related numbers are probably more telling.

And if you look at other teams, he overwhelmingly has guys on the high end regressing. So if a good player has a solid projection, it’s probably a really good projection against other good players.

Two things I’d be curious about asking Dave, though, one is how he arrives at his defensive ratings for minor leaguers. Many of them seem a little over the top – though I guess it’s more on the range side, and a lot of guys wind up regressing defensively as they cross the major league threshold. That doesn’t seem realistic.

Second, on some of these pitchers, I just don’t know how you arrive at their numbers. Daryl Thompson was one example for me. He had a not terrible year last year when you take all levels into account, and his projection was awful. This year was a disaster, and it improved.

that the overall team projection for the rangers is going to be somewhat less accurate simply because of the wide variety of unique situations we have. Really young guys, guys potentially shifting in and out of roles, guys with freak injuries or particularly divergent performance last year. I know that all teams have these to some extent, and that the system tries to take them into account to some extent, but still a lot of those individual projections just dont fit the narrative for that player’s expected course of development. Yes, it can be dangerous to rely too heavily on a narrative when statistics are staring you in the face.

My thought is that we will probably have most of our guys do slightly better than the projections, with a select few doing significantly worse.

ZippY

Get ready for OC vs. Philkid: the rematch.

ODDS TO WIN THE 2010 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT:
Team
N.Y. Yankees 2/1
Boston 7/2
L.A. Angels 9/2
Tampa Bay 11/2
Chi. White Sox 6/1
Detroit 8/1
Minnesota 14/1
Texas 15/1
Toronto 35/1
Baltimore 50/1
Oakland 60/1
Seattle 60/1
Kansas City 75/1
Cleveland 100/1

This will obviously change w/ FA acquisitions, but I am skeptical that Texas will outmaneuver many teams in things that require $.

Sad that Texas is behind three AL East teams AND three AL Central teams. Seriously?

There’s always 2011.

I don’t understand what the abbreviations are for the defensive projections. I look at Davis as a well above avg. defensive 1B, and cannot tell if the projections agree. If a smaller # is good, then OK, the defensive projections look fine. If not, I have to question the methodology.