LSB Community Prospect Project: Post-Season #8
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 11, 2009 12:31 PM CST
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After garnering 44% of 188 votes, Wilmer Font has won the right to be called the LSB Community #7 prospect!
The List So Far:
#1. RHP Neftali Feliz
#2. LHP Martin Perez
#3. 1B Justin Smoak#4. RHP Tanner Scheppers
#5. RHP Michael Main
#6. LHP Robbie Ross
#7. RHP Wilmer Font
Time to move on to the vote for #8.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And, as always, please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
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Daniel Guts.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 11, 2009 12:35 PM CST reply actions
about time!
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 11, 2009 3:06 PM CST up reply actions
For me, it gets tough at this point
There are the guys I’m more familiar with like Beavan, Kiker, and Moreland but its tough going against Gutierrez right now.
Also, where do you guys have Escobar and Profar?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
big difference
Gutierrez has a curveball that breaks more than any curveball in our system, and probably most systems for that matter
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
from BBTiA
Gutierrez’ curveball was mostly 75-77 MPH, though he did mix in a 69 and a 71 MPH pitch during his three innings. The downward break on Gutierrez’ curveball is outstanding. The only major league pitcher in 2009 who matched the 10-inch vertical drop that Gutierrez averaged among the ten curveballs that he tossed last week is Barry Zito. Chris Carpenter and Matt Garza were the only two right-handers whose curveball movement in 2009 came close to what Gutierrez registered.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
it's possible Gutierrez ends up in the 'pen
but he profiles more as a starter imo
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
The differences between Gutierrez and Strop?
Upside – If he can develop his change-up, Gutierrez could become a #2 starting pitcher. If Strop can improve his consistency, he could develop into a closer.
Control – Gutierrez has a career mark of 2.9 BB/9; Strop’s career mark is 4.3 BB/9
Gutierrez as "always" been a pitcher.
Strop is working on his 3rd or 4th season.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 11, 2009 4:21 PM CST up reply actions
Strop
Trip – You got to watch Strop all year. Though I tend not to put too much stock in monthly numbers due to SSS effects, his numbers suggest that he improved his control during the season (4.6 BB/9 in May, 7.4 BB/9 in June, 5.4 BB/9 in July, 1.5 BB/9 in August). How much do you think Strop improved from May to August and how likely do you think he will carry those improvements forward to 2010?
I think the Rangers, by calling him up, showed that the improvements were stellar.
He struggled a bit after his call up, but he’s got an insane power arsenal. I’m definitely counting him among the 7 guys in the 2010 bullpen.
The 2010 bullpen has a lot of injury questions with Ray and Francisco dealing with injuries last season, and just about everyone else having at least some minor issue – O’Day’s labrum, Wilson’s elbow, Strop’s elbow.
The healthy guys going into 2010, as I see them, are Rapada, Snyder, Nippert, Mathis, and Feliz.
If everyone stays healthy (and Wilson doesn’t stick in the ‘pen), the Rangers could potentially have the most powerful bullpen core in the majors: Francisco, Ray, Strop, Wilson, and Feliz. With O’Day and either Rapada or Snyder mixed in there, I really like the way that shapes up, but…
That’s a full 7-man bullpen, and there’s no long man. Wilson and Feliz are decent bets to be in a rotation somewhere (Texas or OKC), so that will clear the spot for a swing man. Nippert and Mathis will duke it out, but I think Nippert has a bit of an edge right now.
With Wilson and/or Feliz out of the bullpen picture, the door is wide open for Strop to be a big time contributor this season and in the future.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 11, 2009 9:15 PM CST up reply actions
I'm with you on the 2010 bullpen
If everything breaks right, that’s a lot of guys who throw really hard and every one of them have a legitimate second pitch.
I agree
the bullpen looks strong even if Wilson and Feliz both make the rotation (at least at some point in 2010 for Feliz). The depth is strong, lots of good arms. There are several injury risks in both the rotation and the pen, but the team is well positioned to deal with them. I’m more worried about the variance of the offense.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I went Moreland here
by a nose over Gutierrez. Moreland will reach the big leagues this year and won’t embarrass himself.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
It's definitely between Gutierrez and Moreland here for me.
I think Gutierrez has higher rated abilities, but I just can’t get past the gap between his ears.
I went Moreland, who has worked really hard to hone and improve his skills, which is pretty much the opposite of what Gutierrez has done with his considerable talent.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
You act like he's TO.
Would you also be opposed to trading for Miguel Cabrera or Manny Ramirez because their decision-making skills are questionable?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 11, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
Gutierrez is not Miggy or Manny
Once he’s established as an all-decade level talent then you can start having these discussions.
Once you've won 20 games in The Show
Then you can grow fungus on your shower shoes.
"Just remember what ol' Jack Burton does when the earth quakes, and the poison arrows fall from the sky, and the pillars of Heaven shake. Yeah, Jack Burton just looks that big ol' storm right square in the eye and he says, "Give me your best shot, pal. I can take it."
My favorite scene in that whole movie.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 11, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
And at that point
the player starts costing you 15-20 million a year instead of a few hundred thousand
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Thanks for illuminating me.
I was under the impression that a Double-A pitcher was in fact a major league hitter.
Or, perhaps I was trying to apply someone’s line of thinking to a different example to see if they would be consistent? Perhaps the purpose of my comment was to start/continue a discussion about how important off-field decision making is when evaluating talent? Maybe by pointing out examples of other players that have made it at the big-league level who have a less than stellar off-field record, I was instead trying to use examples to make my point that Gutierrez’s talent should outweigh his ‘gap between his ears’?
No, probably not, I was probably trying to say that Gutierrez is as talented as once a decade type hitters on the basis of his AFL performance.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 11, 2009 2:36 PM CST up reply actions
I agree Guts is talented
but I doubt he’s nearly as talented as those hitters you mentioned. He’s not an ace waiting to happen.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
He's not exactly been proactive or receptive about refining his pitching approach.
FWIW, I think TO was a much harder worker than Gutierrez will ever be, even though TO is a much more of a nut job.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
I'm waiting a few spots for him
hype is big right now, but he is so far away I can’t pull the trigger yet.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Personally, I think he will be in MLB
Within 4 years. I could be totally wrong, but…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
If he does start the year off in full-season
then that’s entirely possible.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
He'll be the starting 2B when Kinsler's contract is up.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 11, 2009 4:07 PM CST up reply actions
Profar
Ive really been thinking of picking him, but frankly I just havent seen anything from him yet to know.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
it's only reputation right now
I go 3 or 4, then maybe profar
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Every report on him is gushing.
And I don’t like Gutierrez or Moreland enough to put either one here.
I would love a list of prospects who have played stateside at the age of 16
It’s not to common is it?
Gutz
After spending the last half of these voting for Font I have to transfer to Gutz.
Let’s go to the leader board, Mo!
From Goldstein's chat today...
ramjam36 (Fort Worth, TX): How are you feeling about Michael Main and Engel Beltre heading into next season?
Kevin Goldstein: By all accounts, Main will be healthy so I’m very optimistic. Beltre has the tools, so I’m somwhat optimistic, based on age, but at some point he HAS to make adjustments are it’s going to be all wasted.
plus a few other Ranger related questions including this
jarjets89 (NJ): What do you think of the Josh Johnson for Justin Smoak and Neftali rumor? even if it was just a rumor
Kevin Goldstein: I think the Rangers would be silly silly silly to do that.
Finally Guts time has come
Been voting him since 5
Next up is Kiker for me
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
So, two distinct tiers so far.
Which names are in the 3rd tier? I think I like 6 guys there. Now I gotta figure out the order.
I'm actually leaning toward Feliz in his own tier.
I’m tempted to group them like this:
Tier 1: Feliz
Tier 2: Smoak, Perez, Scheppers
Tier 3: Main, Font, Gutierrez, Moreland, Ross, (I want to put MaxRam in here)
Tier 4: etc.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
7 pitchers among the top 8 prospects
Hitters should dominate the next few rounds with Moreland, Telis, Profar, and Velazquez on the board.
Speaking of which – Adam, can you get Telis on for the next round?
Yes, Telis
should be on there. I have him in the upper teens in my mind. 15,16 or so.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I guess that I like Telis more than you
He’s my third favorite hitter in the Rangers’ system. If he can begin taking walks again, he could find himself in the Top 100 as soon as next season.
I love his hitting
it’s his plate discipline that makes me leave him out of the top 10-12. If he shows signs of maturing in that area he’s in my top 10 by midsummer.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
And one other thing
What is the plan for MaxRam? For the purposes of the CPP, is he being considered the property of the RedSox? For me, every day that goes by makes me more sure that the Lowell/Ramirez trade is not going down.
In addition to the report that suggested that the two teams have agreed to the key components of a deal, we’ve heard that the Rangers are worried about Lowell’s hip, the Red Sox are worried about MaxRam’s wrists, and Lowell would prefer to stay in Boston. That suggests to me that negotiations are on-going. If the two teams were hell-bent on consummating the deal, then the physicals would get done.
@Evan_P_Grant Don’t expect Rangers to finalize Mike Lowell trade with #RedSox – if it gets done at all – until next week. Sox looking to replace Lowell.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 11, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
May I propose that we keep MaxRam on the prospect list?
I would like to see how others view him relative to the other hitters in the system.
I guess if others want him too
What do the rest of you think?
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 11, 2009 3:11 PM CST up reply actions
May as well for now
It could spur discussion about how valuable everyone really thinks he is.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Sounds good to me.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Sure, though I'm betting
that some will try to justify the proposed trade in their minds by downplaying Ramirez’ chances. Of course, many were already down on him for his injury-riddled season, which is somewhat justified imo.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I for one
won’t vote for MaxRam until #20 because I can’t imagine that JD would trade away a good player.
Go Rice Owls!
Adrian Gonzalez says hi
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Blame Canada
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I blame a brand-new GM who was under pressure to make moves for the heck of it
AND who has gotten infinitely better at his job
and to be clear
my comment was one of sarcasm. I’m as big a JD fan out there as there is, but I think it is silly to downrate a guy just because he was traded.
I worry about MaxRam for two reasons, which are mostly along the “can we wait for this guy” variety:
One, he’s increasingly positionless, and that includes DH. Ironically, I think had Davis been really good this would be less of a concern, because one of Davis or Smoak probably would have been traded. But as it is, you can’t trade Davis (little value) or Smoak (need him if Davis fails). In effect, we’d be hoping not that MaxRam reaches his median expected value – probably a high 700s/~800 OPS guy, but rather we’d be hoping for that top 5% of his expected range. Because unless he’s a near .300/.400/.500 type, it’s hard to justify having a DH-only on your 25 man roster, especially if there are multiple 1b options.
Two, he’s very near that point where he’ll stop being a guy who we’re happy to wait for (Engel Beltre) to being a guy who we’re getting annoyed about waiting for (Jason Botts). It’s a fine line, but it comes somewhere around the time where he’s out of options (according to Scott Lucas, he has one left), though I’m never sure how exactly to calculate that for any particular player. Needless to say, it isn’t obvious to me that he’s “a year away” from being a major leaguer. Given there is a big 40 crunch coming and an influx of 1b/DH types; I doubt MaxRam would have stayed a Ranger for all of 2010 unless he rebounded as well as he possibly could be expected to.
Go Rice Owls!
Max used his first option in 2008 and his second in 2009
Next year he will use his last
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Damn, sorry
He was on last round but I missed putting him on somehow this time.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 11, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
Gutz for me
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Gutz then Moreland for me
Can anyone compare the four kiddy pitchers here, please?
What are the diffrerences in say Melo, Erlin, Thompson, and Escobar? All have pitched pro ball, though some more than others but what are their projections? How do you differentiate between them at this point?
Also where’s Richard Alvarez? Isn’t that the name of the other AZ rookie ball pitcher who more than held his own as a teenager last summer?
Melo – raw, FB mid-90’s, live arm but needs lotsa work, high ceiling if hit jackpot
Erlin – command/control lefty, hope his head fills with vitamin K and his stamina builds
Thompson – Eric Hurley-type ceiling?
Thompson progressed from month-to-month. With each month in Spokane, Thompson became less hittable, his walks declined, and his strikeouts rose. In six August starts, Thompson was 3-1 with a 2.78 earned-run average.
.
The 19-year-old worked anywhere between 88-94 mph with the Indians, but he generally sat around 91-93 mph. In addition to improved fastball command, he developed a usable changeup and his tight-spinning curveball looked like a future plus pitch.
Escobar – stout lefty who could be a gem, potential to be nasty
Alvarez – sits mid-80s, good stuff and high potential as he grows and obtains some velo
[most of that info was care of Jason Cole]
Yay Shroomer and Cole for the win
Thompson sounds like a guy that’s beginning to prove he was worth the high bonus he got. Certainly a guy to watch out for in Hickory this year.
They all seem to fall in that 11-20 category. Though I love some other guys listed here higher. I will be interesting when the discussion about them comes up.
Thanks for the quick and dirty descriptions.
L ike Jason Cole's work as much as anyone, but
for the life of me, I can’t figure out what he sees in Matt Thompson.
In the video that I’ve seen, his fastball looks straight and his offspeed pitches don’t seem to do a whole lot. In 2009, his BAA was .303 and his strikeout rate was 6.3 K/9. His walk rate was outstanding (1.3 BB/9), but I’m not so sure that is not the result of having stuff that is so inviting to hit.
Jason – if you stop by, please set me straight.
Thompson has a fastball that's been as high as 94.
Add that to his plus curveball and you’ve got a solid pitcher in the making.
It’s not always in the numbers.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 11, 2009 9:19 PM CST up reply actions
Is Thompson your breakout candidate for 2010?
If so, then I’ll take Jose Monegro and bet you a beer at Dr. Pepper Ballpark on who is ranked higher at mid-season next year.
Really?
Jose Monegro vs Matt Thompson. Get back to me in a week.
He is not my breakout candidate. That would be Jake Brigham.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 11, 2009 10:00 PM CST up reply actions
You're moving up the list on me
I picked Monegro because he’s in the 35-45 range where I would slot Thompson. If you want Brigham, then can I have Alvarez or Erlin?
What does “Get back to me in a week” mean? Do you know something that is about to break? I’m intrigued.
by spurdynasty on Dec 11, 2009 10:13 PM CST up reply actions
What?
No. Monegro is just so far off my radar that I don’t even know why anyone would pit him against Thompson. I need to find time to look at him and see if you’re crazy or if I’ve overlooked someone.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 11, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions
Gotcha
I’ll send you a draft of an article that I’ve worked up for BBTIA that lists my favorite breakout candidates for next year. Monegro’s #3 on the list.
by spurdynasty on Dec 11, 2009 10:46 PM CST up reply actions
Not always in the numbers
Ok, but what about spur’s comment that his fastball looks straight?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
It was two games, actually
Both at Boise. The main camera was from center field and provided a pretty good look at the ball’s path. It wasn’t quite as good as sitting behind home plate, but it wasn’t bad.
The first game I watched was on August 18th and it was probably Thompson’s best game of the year. Despite the outcome, Thompson’s stuff was just not very impressive. Straight fastball, decent but not overwhelming curve. He threw a lot of strikes. When hitters swung, they typically made good contact.
The second game that I saw in September was more of the same. Perhaps his stuff looks better in person which is why I was hoping to hear from Jason.
Just as a point of reference – Ross pitched two days before both of Thompson’s games and they were likewise televised. In the first game, Ross was really impressive. His fastball and slider were quick and crossed the plate at angles. Lefties couldn’t touch his slider. Swings were typically clean misses, fouls, or weak grounders. Spokane’s defense (especially Clark Murphy) was terrible, which forced Ross to produce 4 and 5 outs in a couple of innings. Ross just plugged away and made pitches. I was very impressed. Interestingly, Ross’ stuff seemed to have lost a bit of zip when he pitched again a couple of weeks later. But even then, his stuff was a couple of levels above Thompson’s in my opinion.
Just to throw another name out there, Braden Tullis also pitched a couple of televised games and his sinker was far more impressive than Thompson’s fastball despite having less velocity.
spur is not the kind of guy
I associate with half-assed analysis. No, not “really” on the video, but you didn’t say anything about movement in response so I asked. You don’t have to be so dismissive, I just wanted more information.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Yay for Danny Guts!
So, assuming Maxie stays here- would you vote him over Moreland, anyone?
Also, Jurickson Profar stands an excellent chance of playing a full year in the Sally at age 17. Just think about that until you vote tommorrow
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
What?
Jurick Profar’s FB page says that he’s married. At 16??? Or could it be that he’s not 16? Weird.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
haha yeah...
Never know with those Latin guys though….
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 11, 2009 7:38 PM CST up reply actions
Toughest vote yet.
I went with Moreland, but I think I’d rather go with D-Gut. Oh well, doesn’t look like it matters.
Man, I just don't know.
It’s between Beltre, Moreland, Guts, and Kiker here for me.
No one really stands out here at all to me.
I think I’ve gotta go with Beltre even though that mean I’m gonna be voting for the same broseph for about two weeks.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
"You like Castlevania, don't you?" -Psycho Mantis.
I think I'm going to be voting for Beltre far sooner than anyone else, too.
In a spot or two coming up. By the time he actually gets on, I’ll bet it’ll be time for me to go with Lemon.
I find it odd that you of all people
Would like a guy who, to this point anyway, looks like a faster, outfielding version of Yuniesky Betancourt.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Kiker shouldn't be mentioned again until the Top 12 guys are done.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 11, 2009 10:01 PM CST up reply actions
Heh, I was planning on adding a (sorry, Trip) after Kiker's name but I forgot.
You : Kiker :: Me : NeRa.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
"You like Castlevania, don't you?" -Psycho Mantis.
by thedirkatron on Dec 11, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah...
It’s not that he’s a horrible prospect. He’s certainly got something, but he doesn’t have enough of that something to warrant being in this system’s Top 10-12 prospects.
His velocity is lacking. His command is lacking. His breaking ball is very inconsistent (even though it is still effective).
He’s got the make up and the change up, but that’s not enough.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 11, 2009 10:58 PM CST up reply actions
No way.
I can’t think of a fair comp for Kiker right now, but those two seem to be a bit higher than Kiker’s ceiling.
In relief, Kiker’s velo might jump back into the 92-94 range, maybe higher, but his stuff isn’t anything like CJ’s.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 12, 2009 12:12 AM CST up reply actions
As in the mid-season voting, I'm going to keeping bashing you all with my Kiker vote until you succumb
So far:
- Feliz
- Perez
- Smoak
- Scheppers
- Main
- Font
- Font
- Kiker
I’ve got a little man-crush on Kiker. What can I say?
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
by NorCalRangersFan on Dec 11, 2009 10:43 PM CST reply actions
Those are his vote records, not his raw rankings.
He voted Font before Ross and then by the time Font got on, Ross was gone.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
"You like Castlevania, don't you?" -Psycho Mantis.
by thedirkatron on Dec 14, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
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