LSB Community Prospect Project: Post-Season #9
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 12, 2009 9:58 AM CST
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After garnering 50% of 160 votes, Danny Gutierrez has won the right to be called the LSB Community #8 prospect!
The List So Far:
#1. RHP Neftali Feliz
#2. LHP Martin Perez
#3. 1B Justin Smoak#4. RHP Tanner Scheppers
#5. RHP Michael Main
#6. LHP Robbie Ross
#7. RHP Wilmer Font
#8. RHP Danny Gutierrez
Time to move on to the vote for #9.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And, as always, please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
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Profar
If he’s competing for a job in Hickory in 2010, he has an incredible ceiling.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Dec 12, 2009 10:14 AM CST reply actions
Thirded
We haven’t heard anything about the guy that isn’t an absolute rave
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
That may be
because we’ve heard very little on him at all.
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And a fair amount of that, at least what sticks in minds, is from Jamey
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, of course, but Jamey is quite skilled at painting an exciting, optimistic picture when he sees promise.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 12, 2009 9:16 PM CST up reply actions
It was tough for me to pick between Profar and Moreland
It was hard for me to put Profar ahead of Moreland with all Moreland did in his first year pro + AFL. Profar might end up being significantly better, but he’s too far away to make up for Morelands progress for me. Profar is #10 for me though.
From Frankie Piliere
Little attention is paid to the minor league phases of the Rule 5, but there’s at least one player to keep tabs on that was taken in the Triple-A phase. Winston Marquez, a left-handed pitcher, was plucked out of the Twins’ system by the Texas Rangers. Marquez has had trouble staying healthy and his control comes and goes, but there is no denying his stuff. With a 90-93 mph fastball, and a potentially plus curveball at 72-75 mph, the 22-year-old can be particularly tough on lefties. His control is going to need to come a long way, but for a Triple-A phase selection he is a fascinating talent and worthy gamble for the Rangers.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Naw
He’s probably in 35-40 range at best.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 12, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
After looking at rosters
He’s probably around 50.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 12, 2009 10:44 AM CST up reply actions
or damn closer to 60
so much depth.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 12, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
Moreland or Kiker here
I had to go Kiker. All he has to do is gain some command of his pitches. He already has 3 pitches, 1 of them being a plus changeup. With his arm action and that pitch, it makes his fastball play that much more difficult. His curveball is decent as well, so with his performance, I put him here at 9.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
All he has to do is gain command?
Isn’t that like saying all you have to do is learn to putt and you’ll be a great golfer?
That’s a tall order and if Kiker hasn’t learned command by AA then the likelyhood of him harnessing his control in AAA seems like a bad bet.
I’m not a believer in Kiker. He’s short, he doesn’t throw hard enough and he has no idea where the pitch is heading most of the time. I’m not sure he can stick as a reliever with his control issues.
The kicker is that Kiker was never that horrible with his control
In Clinton and Bakersfield, he didn’t look like a young Greg Maddux but wasn’t walking 5 a game either.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It is so stupid to say he doesn't throw hard enough
The guy misses bats and has a plus changeup. Will you tell me how hard Hoffman throws now? An 88-89 mph fastball plays much faster with a great changeup and if he goes to the pen he could get a bump in velocity up to 90-92. People fall in love with a hard fastball, but give me the great changeup and fastball with movement and a pitcher like that can be more effective than a pitchr who throws mid 90’s but doesn’t have a great change of pace to keep hitters off balance
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
The problem
isn’t so much velocity its the fact that he has no clue where its going half the time. Missing bats is a really good thing but not a the expense of a high walk rate and like doubling up the league your pitching in in hit batters.
The start of a new tier of prospects
I deliberated for a while, but ended up taking Moreland. Scouts seem to think he has a good shot to contribute at the ML level, and that’s more than I can say for the other guys remaining on the list.
Not as high as Moreland's
He’s very, very likely to make a big league roster somewhere. It wasn’t a rip on anyone else; ;just a statement that he has a greater likelihood to crack a roster than any of the remaining candidates.
You guys want Hurley on?
Should probably get Phillips, Snyder and Sardinas on next.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Snyder has to be on, considering Goldstiens remarks that he could have snuck into
the top 11 of the Giants system
sucks
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 12, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
Then vote for Velazquez or Profar
Beltre has no clue at the plate.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 12, 2009 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
No but
I don’t see how anyone can vote for Beltre before those two just because of ceiling when his isn’t that much higher and is much more likely to not reach it.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 12, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
I respect the ceiling
but at this point he looks more like Golson than Griffey, Jr.
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Sure
At this point, Beltre’s raw tools haven’t translated to on the field results. The developmental card can still be played, but at some point Beltre needs to start showing some refinement at the plate.
Despite his 2009 results, suggesting, as Kinslerhomer did, that Beltre is “much more likely” to not reach his ceiling than a 16 year-old that hasn’t played a professional game, is, well, absolutely ridiculous. Profar is an immense talent and should be a highly ranked player in this system, but I think we should see how his skill set translates to professional baseball before we start assuming too much.
Yeah it was for Profar
but not for Velazquez.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 13, 2009 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
You know
I like Profar and all, but what has he done to rank so highly on some folks’ voting? Go back and read the reports from Engel Beltre’s first instructional league. That’s where a lot of that Barry Bonds/Darryl Strawberry talk came from, how good he looked in his first camp. Recall the hype (and I’m certainly one of those guilty of it) surrounding Cristian Santana until last year. Read what the Rangers said about Johan Yan and Emmanuel Solis after signing them. Profar may be the real deal, but unless there is more said than what I’ve heard, this seems premature.
I am not shy to rank unproven guys, but I think we have to see how his bat holds up, at least just a little bit, before we jump him in front of someone like Beltre, who had even more hype at this point, or people we rank ahead of Beltre because Beltre is still so far away.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 12, 2009 11:28 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
If the Nats were willing to trade us, say, Adam Dunn right now
And they said, “All we want back is either Profar or Beltre,” who would you give them?
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 12, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
Beltre IMO
He seems to be the typical all hype toolsy failure of a player.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
there's probably a cognitive bias involved here
i bet the expected probability of beltre or profar reaching their ceiling is probably pretty close – and it’s probably pretty low. Beltre’s is low because he hasn’t shown a lot of promise after being in pro ball for a couple of years but Profar’s is probably equally low because he’s 17.
Given the uncertainty, I think you should probably just evaluate it based on ceiling. I’ll have to defer to somebody here. Both are up the middle guys that seem to have good bats for their position. I would think Beltre’s ceiling is still higher but only because I haven’t really read any Profar comps, no matter how outlandish they are.
Anyway, I think Z convinced me – Beltre over Profar
clarification
the expected probabilities of each reaching their ceiling are probably similar and that probability is low for both
uh
I am not shy to rank unproven guys, but I think we have to see how his bat holds up, at least just a little bit, before we jump him in front of someone like Beltre
what?
what do you think this ranking means? anyway, I didn’t specify whether I was saying beltre over profrar in a trade situation or ranking but I don’t really see what the difference is.
But i don’t think you quite grasped what Z was saying. As hard as it is for you to believe, he ranked Beltre over Profar
I grasp exactly what he is saying
I understand that he would vote Beltre before Profar in these rankings. What was your answer to Adam’s question, anyway? “Beltre over Profar”.. in these rankings or who you would rather trade?
Given how much of a scarce resource good Shortstops have become, I would have a hard time letting go of Profar, unless it was a trade that pushed us over the top.
ok, well maybe we should just let Z clarify
but my answer is Beltre over Profar strictly in terms of likelihood of what kind of player they become
The one thing is that Profar might have a higher perceived market value (because of same cognitive bias) above so if you weren’t counting on either’s production in the future and just wanted to optimize trade resources, you should just send Beltre, who probably has low trade value now.
Goodness
I’d give them Beltre, a hug, and a receipt. No problem.
With Profar I’m not falling for words…it’s striking they’d try him in Hickory (granted he still has to earn the job).
Overall the list is plateauing into lower-ceiling, higher-likelihood and higher-ceiling, lower-sample size middle ground. I go with higher ceiling when it’s a 16-y.o. on a full season track.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Dec 12, 2009 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
It would be close for me
I think that the possibility of Beltre figuring how to approach a professional at bat at age 20 or 21 or 22 is probably at least as good as Profar a) being someone who can control the strikezone, b) having the world class innate ability to make good contact, c) make the huge strides that he does to play an effective shortstop. If Beltre has a light click on – and granted, it’s one of the hardest things in the world to do, to change your nature like that – he should be something between a regular starter and a star.
Having followed loads of these teenagers from the islands and South America in various organizations, it’s just startling how few of the top guys come to pro ball with even a better sense of the strike zone or how to control the AB than Beltre. Until proven in games, I just feel like the odds are that a guy like Profar is more like that, than what I think folks’ imaginations are telling them, based on their votes.
None of that is to say I’m not excited about him. I know that he has shortstop tools and pop in his bat. But I haven’t read much to indicate to me that he has special contact skills or an incredibly advanced approach to at bats, and to compare him with a guy who we see the end result, those were things that they gushed about with Andrus when he was 16 and 17 down in the Braves’ camps. If goes out in rookie ball and walks 12 times in 150 ABs and makes pretty good contact, I would have much less reservation.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 12, 2009 4:15 PM CST up reply actions
Well said
the Profar hype here is getting a bit silly. We’re way ahead of ourselves on him. Why vote him ahead of someone like Telis?
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It's mostly a product
Of JD showering constant praise on him. I tend to pay attention when the GM is in love with a guy.
I understand, and I'm stoked about Profar
and the fact the GM is so high on him. But I’d like him to actually play a few games before putting him in the top 10 at that age.
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Looking ahead:
Are these guys in this next tier we’re looking at now?
MaxRam
Poveda
Moscoso
Kiker
Strop
Profar
Maybe with:
Telis
Miggy Velazquez
Beltre
I’m just trying to get a feel for this tier and want to make sure I don’t leave anyone out. I’m excited about this part because I’m less familiar with most of these guys.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Velazquez definitely.
Kiker – not so much.
Kirkman – potentially.
Wieland – yes.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 12, 2009 3:31 PM CST up reply actions
Agree on Kiker.
But the chance he contributes to the 2010 Rangers makes me raise him a little more than where I would have originally put him when this started. He’ll end up being top 15 most likely now.
Wieland…that’s a name I had forgotten. Why him over say…Moscoso?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 12, 2009 4:36 PM CST up reply actions
I'm a lot more excited over Wieland than
what his 2009 stats say.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 12, 2009 5:04 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
What did that IF total, 180 or so errors?
by Brett Perryman on Dec 12, 2009 5:42 PM CST up reply actions
and you know there were
tons of misplays in addition to that
by Brett Perryman on Dec 12, 2009 5:42 PM CST up reply actions
Contributes vs Makes an Appearance
I don’t think he’ll contribute this year.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 12, 2009 8:16 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe I'm the only one but I'm a fan
of Kennil Gomez. He’s got to stay healthy but he pitched really well down the stretch in Bakersfield and getting out of that hellish environment and into Frisco where his talent can shine, well he’s a real possibility to shoot onto some people’s radar. He’s a guy I’m looking forward to seeing this summer.
Definitely on the list of
guys whose 2010 will be very interesting. He and Boscan are near the top of that list for me.
by Brett Perryman on Dec 12, 2009 5:05 PM CST up reply actions
Moreland for me
Then Kiker next, I think.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
yeah!
That’s the guy I’ve been rooting for.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 12, 2009 4:36 PM CST up reply actions
Forgot about him
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 12, 2009 7:20 PM CST up reply actions
Start of my Kiker voting
I would go Moreland next if Kiker went here but it looks like Moreland will go here.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Kiker.
Probably destined for the ’pen, but I feel like he should be ahead of Moreland.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
why?
If Kiker is a bullpen guy with mediocre stuff and shaky command, and Moreland is a defensively challenged, 400 ab, 800 OPS bat – which is more valuable?
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
I keep hearing conflicting things on Moreland
I’ve kinda backed off from being pretty bullish on him just awhile ago. I kinda see Kiker as kind a potential CJ Wilson-type still however, and I’d take that over a guy who has zero defensive value and still has some people questioning his swing.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Kiker doesn't have Wilson's stuff
so I don’t see the comparison.
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People talk about kikers stuff being bad
You seriously underestimate a really good changeup with good arm action and deception. Kiker led the Texas league in K’s did he not? What is weak about that.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Did I say his stuff was weak? No.
I said it wasn’t as good as Wilson’s.
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Kiker w/ 24 votes, Moscoso w/ 1
Can someone explain how Kiker is a better prospect? I don’t see how you can come to that conclusion.
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
Moscoso was 25 last year, Kiker was 21
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
is that your argument that Kiker is a better prospect?
Moscoso was a much better pitcher at a higher level.
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
Thats not the entire argument
But thats a pretty big bullet point
Kiker was 1 level lower than Moscoso while being 4 years younger. Moscoso has better control but Kiker strikes more guys out. I could see an argument for Moscoso but I think Kiker is the better prospect. Moscoso is in the next 3-5 for me
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
career k rates
Kiker 23%
Moscoso 25.38%
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
Moscosos 2008 inflated that number
Moscoso has been right around 7.7 K/9 throughout his career except in 2008 as a 24 year old in High A and AA where he had a K/9 of almost 13.
Kiker has always been young for his league and maintained solid 8+ K/9 at every stop
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
How is a 4 year age difference not a huge deal
Yeah, Moscoso pitched better in AAA than Kiker did in AA, but this was Kiker’s first stint in AA as a 21 year old instead of his first season in AAA as a 25 year old. There’s more to it than just that, but each pitcher’s age plays a huge part in ho I’m looking at them.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
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