Reds Non-Tender Jonny Gomes
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 12, 2009 5:30 PM CST
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PrintMLB Daily Dish reports that the Cincinnati Reds have non-tendered Jonny Gomes.
I talked about Gomes here, and if I were guessing on who will have a more productive year offensively in 2010, Gomes or Mike Lowell, I'd go with Gomes.
Lowell would presumably be better defensively at first base than Gomes, and Gomes can't play third base, but Lowell appears to be slated to primarily DH anyway if he comes to Texas. Lowell appears to have been targeted in large part because of his leadership, experience on a world champion, intangibles, and the like...but in terms of performance, there doesn't seem to be much difference between Gomes and Lowell, and Gomes is almost certainly going to end up making less than the $3 million the Rangers appear prepared to pay Lowell next year.
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Jack Cust was non-tendered as well....
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
DROOLDROOLDROOLDROOL
Do it goddamit.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Other teams wanted Rich Harden too.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I am not making a cock joke
With the disclaimer out of the way, I bet they blew their wad for Harden.
Okay I am making a cock joke, albeit not a very good one, and I hope others don’t follow suit.
But yes if they could get Cust I think that would be very big. Don’t see it happening.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:05 PM CST up reply actions
I know you said you didn't read everything on here, and didn't mean to start a train of wang jokes
But I’m beginning to think you just like cock?
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
Nope.
I will go on the record as a heterosexual.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions
It's fine if you do
Lots of good people like cock not all have to be women. No reason to be ashamed man. I won’t judge you.
Good luck on your journey. I know your life will be harder when people find out, but don’t let them get you down, who cares what they think.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
sorry orange
you may want me to be gay, but I am what I am and cannot change. Good luck on your journey, too, man.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:24 PM CST up reply actions
I think we all could have done without that.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:30 PM CST up reply actions
I'm confident with myself, francis.
I can look at this gif, and still know that I like women. This gif is about the arts, and expression. It’s beautiful.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
That GIF is about ratings, and crass commercialism.
It’s beautiful if you dig that…
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
The ratings represent stars that shine upon us from the heavens above.
And each time one person views another rating (star) is added. commercialism is the darkness that allows you to see the ratings (stars)
You can’t have one without the other. With good comes bad, and with bad comes a miracle.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
You are quickly skyrocketing up my list of posters I irrationally hate.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team.-Lonestarjon
Drew effing Gooden??? F U Donnie.
Little we do here
is rational, actually, but nearly all of it is subjective, including this comment.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I'm feeling that
I just made my CYoung trade…
by brettgardner on Dec 12, 2009 9:04 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe
I did not want to trade him but, I can’t turn that offer down. You’re not that far off in boards and Noah is a beast, especially in offensive boards. He might be able to put you over the hump.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team.-Lonestarjon
Drew effing Gooden??? F U Donnie.
Jack Cust
the degree to which you overrate him is laughable.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Well he's not Babe Ruth or anything
…but he’s pretty good. Better than any other option being discussed, I think.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:06 PM CST up reply actions
Last 3 years
.912, .851, .773 with decreasing OBP and SLG every year. For a Old player skill guy going into his major decline phase with 0 positional value and an inability to hit lefties, I’d say he’s pretty overrated.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
This coming from the guy who is hot to trot over Vlad Guerrero
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Please stop saying hot to trot
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
by sprite on Dec 12, 2009 6:11 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
With Vlad
there’s an obvious reason for his decrease in production, and the fact that a healthy Vlad Guerrero >>>>>>>a healthy Jack Cust. What I said was for the options on the table, Vlad Guerrero makes the most sense (at least compared to Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome).
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Vlad is old and falling apart
That’s the reason for his decrease in production. I don’t see any reason to expect him to be healthy or 100% again, as opposed to Cust, whose power #’s I would expect to almost automatically rebound at least somewhat coming from the Coliseum in Oakland to the RBiA.
Plus Cust takes a shitload of walks, which is what we need infused in this lineup more than anything. We’ve got plenty of guys who can see the ball and hit the ball (when they’re not trying to overswing at every other pitch, anyway), what we’re missing is some patience.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
It's not just about walks
it’s about OBP regardless of how the player comes to it. Jack Cust’s OBP has trended down the last three years and his contact rates have decreased as well. That, to me, is the sign of a player who has been adjusted to by the league. That + his Old Player Skills make him, to me, a marginal investment.
Last year, despite being a broken down old man, Vlad Guerrero outproduced Jack Cust in a pretty difficult game environment. I think assuming that our park will magically revive a 3 year decline of all peripherals for Mr. Cust is incredibly naive.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
The need is a righty DH
He’d fill that. I think baseball jesus is right…he may see a rebound in Arlington. Either way I’d like to see a guy who takes pitches and gets on base. Would rather watch him play than Mike Lowell, who IS old.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:12 PM CST up reply actions
Jack Cust
bats lefty.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
that's what I meant to say
apologies. A guy who hits righties and will DH most of the time. Would rather see Cust, but it’s a moot point because they’re not going to be able to afford him.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:15 PM CST up reply actions
Haven't the Rangers been putting a premium on guys who hit LHP?
I thought that’s why Texas wanted a big RH bat?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
well they could use both
And for the simplest of reasons I’d go for a lefty first.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:20 PM CST up reply actions
David Murphy
isn’t nearly as incompetent as some people seem to think.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Dec 12, 2009 6:21 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
This is sort of why I figured the RHB would be first priority.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
well
Just for the fact that they’ll see a lot more right handed pitching I would prioritize finding a lefty with a little power who can get on base. Murphy is a good player, but I don’t think he’s the kind of guy you want at DH.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:29 PM CST up reply actions
I think given this club's financial circumstances,
I’d prefer to see the front office address holes before upgrades.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
I just don't see this team in the playoffs with the Gritmaster 3000 as primary DH.
His newfound ability to walk trended downward as the season continued this year, IIRC. So I’m not sure if he’s going to carry that over to next season, and he’s not going to hit for a ton of power either.
Sure, he’d make an okay stopgap as a platoon DH if we can’t get anyone else in there, but I don’t see why David fucking Murphy is a reason not to try and upgrade LH DH.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
In a perfect world, sure. But what do you think Cust will cost?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
No idea, really.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I think the Rangers 2010
playoff chances (offensively) rely more on Hamilton reemerging, Kinsler taking a step forward, Young and Cruz producing like 2009 – than whether Lowell or Gomes or Cust or Vlad is the DH.
by Randy Richardson on Dec 12, 2009 6:28 PM CST up reply actions
Don't forget Davis.
Or some other production from first base.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
that too
and better production from the catchers
by Randy Richardson on Dec 12, 2009 6:30 PM CST up reply actions
I've given up the catchers as a lost cause for 2010.
Any production better than last year will be a bonus…
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
I don't think we're going to get any significant kind of production from catcher this year
Even if Salty the One-Armed Pirate and Toothpick Teagarden take 20 point jumps in wOBA, they still suck.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
You
are incredibly stupid and should never procreate.
You take a reasonable stance (IE, we should probably add a high floor guy to our catching mix, someone like ROnny Paulino) and takes it to the realm of retardia. Jesus Christ.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Let's all be friends.
I wanna be friends.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:39 PM CST up reply actions
I feel this Dustin might be gay meme
has now sprouted serious legs.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
There's one person who says he thinks that.
If I were gay I’d say so. I don’t give a damn about what anybody thinks. I’ve been around a pretty good while and you guys should know that by now.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:45 PM CST up reply actions
He's joking.
Orange is right: you held the door open for him, and he walked right through it.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
I think it's time to reinstate the troll blocker
…or whatever it’s called.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:43 PM CST up reply actions
you set me up, man.
If I didn’t bite then I would have had to slap myself.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
I don't even know what you're bitching about this time man.
I’m talking about OUR catchers. We’re probably not going to have either of them wOBA over about .300-.310 next year. That’s what I said. Nobody said anything about Ronny Paulino or adding another catcher.
I swear, you bitch at me just to bitch sometimes.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
The way you present any argument
is so massively retarded that you just decrease the legitimacy of it simply by the delivery.
Here’s a rational version of what you said:
Given that neither Teagarden nor Salty did that well last year, we could probably add a high floor catcher that might give us a .330 or so OBA, like that Ronny Paulino fellow who might be nontendered by the Marlins today.
COnversely, here’s the LSJ, kind of retardia version.
Obviously since i had a falling out with my boyfriend Salty, I’ll take the exact opposite position and assume that two decent players who have produced decent offensive #s in the minors will always suck and can never break out despite the fact that both are on their mid 20s. Hey look everyone, aren’t I just a snarky little thing?
Do more of the former, not the latter. Dick.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Dec 12, 2009 6:45 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
LOL
Man, I must really get under your skin or something, because you’re starting to become as obsessed with trolling me as TexasDawg used to be.
Get a life man, and stop worrying about my prose. Otherwise I guarantee you you’ll probably eventually go insane.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I take that back
I hope you do have children and they all contract DMD because you were a genetic carrier. So you would live your life knowing that your children are suffering, and it’s your fault.
There’s a easy way to get me off your back. Stop saying stupid shit.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Oh please.
Just admit it: you get off on attacking anyone you don’t like.
Attacking me whenever you and I happen to be in the same thread is how you’ve been getting your jollies lately. As such, theres really nothing I could actually say or do that would “get you off my back”.
You’re LSB’s resident intelli-troll. You love to fuck with people, but you’re also pretty intelligent so at the end of the day you contribute as much as you annoy.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I feel like that describes 75% of LSB?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
I do think
about 75% of LSB should be collectively praying for LSJ’s children to get DMD.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I always enjoy logic
which states that being attacked for saying stupid things is the fault of the attacker and not the person who says extremely stupid things.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
well,
I would hope the production will be better than last year. Hard to imagine it won’t.
by Randy Richardson on Dec 12, 2009 6:36 PM CST up reply actions
Agree 100%
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Internet greatness http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/11/10/1125340/will-carroll-calls-out-josey-wales
David Murphy
had as good of a season as the Awesome Jack Cust.
His OBP cratered in August and then again in October when he was asked to hit lefties cause Ron Washington does not understand splits. As a player, he’s no less productive than Jack Cust, he just lacks the TTO outcomes that people love to crow about.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I dunno man.
Maybe you could argue that Murphy was just as productive last year, but I seriously doubt it is within his capabilities to have a season like 2008 or 2007 Jack Cust. And I’d rather have the player who has shown the potential to put up .370+ wOBA’s as my DH.
I’d even rather have Vlad Guerrero as my DH than Murphy, and I’m with AJM in being of the opinion that he’s probably done.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I wish Murphy
would hit the weights a bit. It would be nice to see him fill out and become more of a power threat.
by Randy Richardson on Dec 12, 2009 6:39 PM CST up reply actions
Hitting the weights didn't go so well for Ruben Sierra
and I don’t think it’s a good solution for Murphy either.
I'd agree with that
Murphy kind of reminds me of Bob Skinner (and others) who were good when lean, not so much when they picked up weight.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Dec 12, 2009 11:27 PM CST up reply actions
As I said
we incredibly undervalue floors around here. I think Murphy is going to get you about .285/.350/.480 or so vs. righties. That’s a good enough line for a 6th hole guy. If Lowell can legitimately get you .290/.350/.480 vs. lefties, that’s decent production out of your DH spot. If that’s the floor value for our DHs, I would take that.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Well sure of course you would
But still, why not go get Jack Cust and try to aim higher? You can still hang onto Murphy in case he tanks, though The Gritmaster won’t be playing very much if he works out.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
And the 40 trumps all.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Because Jack Cust's floor
is the abysmal 2006 he had or a farther falling out. Seriously, the dude had a .773 OPS last year and his OBP has gone from Super awesome (.400) to merely average (.350). If that keeps tumbling, we’re looking at Ben Broussard.
Similarly Jonny Gomes’ floor is 2008 Jonny Gomes. You might get the awesome Jack Cust and awesome Jonny Gomes, but I think it’s just as likely you get the straight up subreplacement ones.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
And that'd be fine, given infinite resources.
But money, roster spots, and PAs being finite…
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Especially considering
that both Cust and Gomes has 0 defensive value.Which is something else that is perpetually underrated around here.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
yeah it's impossible
to build a team with two guys that have no defensive utility at all.
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
Way to
take that to an incredibly stupid extreme.
Given the reasonable expectations of performance for Murphy, Lowell, Cust, and Gomes, I’d much rather take the 2 that provides some defensive value vs. the 2 that provides none at all. Obviously, all things being equal, you’d much rather take the more offensively potent player, but that’s not the situation we’re presented with.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I think tricer was agreeing with you.
Although my ability to sense sarcasm on this site diminishes with each passing day.
I do enjoy it when you’re in full-on lashing out at everyone mode though.
I'm going over my histo notes
on a Saturday night while my roommate is throwing a party with my booze. I would say I am justified.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Histo as in histology?
What are you studying?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Histology
and some Physiology.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
yea
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Best of luck.
I’m actually heading out now to have a couple beers with a friend who’s in his first year of med school. He’d tell you to take a Saturday-night break and not drive yourself crazy…
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
FWIW, I read tricer's post as sarcastic.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
my post was not sarcastic
I was agreeing with Firebat that you can’t build a club with a platoon DH situation where neither should ever wear a glove. Like Gomes and Cust, try and tell me how you can have a functioning bench with both those guys on it, unless you are going with a 6 man bullpen.
Not sure how that post could be interpreted any other way.
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
My bad
to be fair, there’s a lot of sarcasm on these boards.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
What med school are you at?
In Texas or elsewhere? I’m guessing from the Histology and Physiology that you’re a first year?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 12, 2009 9:20 PM CST up reply actions
I'd rather
just have Murphy be the partial DH than pay that money for Cust.
Cust is a guy whose swing % has gone up while his contact rates have trended down. He’s a great name because of his awesome 2007 season, but there’s a good reason why he’s nontendered right now.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Yeah
Well that’s the quality of player the Rangers have to look at. Murphy I’m higher on than a lot of people but I think Cust could drive the ball into the RF porch. You have to take a little bit of a risk that he’ll regain some of his old form. Obviously if he were the player he was in 2007 we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
by Black Francis on Dec 12, 2009 6:22 PM CST up reply actions
Cust is a lefty
Which is why I think his power stands a better chance of rebounding in Arlington as opposed to Lowell or Vlad.
He’s better than any righty bat we could possibly afford, IMO.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Sigh.
You need to come up with a new bit other than picking anything I say apart man.
He’s exactly what this team needs. A guy whose power will rebound as a LHB in the RBiA that takes a shitload of walks. I know he’s not Jesus, but he’s better than probably 90% of any other bat we could acquire this offseason.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Lowell
I’m not wildly excited about the Lowell acquisition, but it is possible that if he DH’s, he will be able to avoid the nagging injuries and become a more productive hitter. I’m not expecting anything crazy good, just thinking that a healthy Lowell at DH could produce at a higher level than he has the past few years.
by Randy Richardson on Dec 12, 2009 5:41 PM CST reply actions
That
May be a significant part in the logic of going after him. It isn’t like he’s a relentless OBP guy, but if he’s up for hitting and not fielding, or some starts at 1B etc, his bat could be very steady. Combine that with the more than frequent power efforts by Hamilton, Cruz, Kinsler, you might get a few runs going forward of the type that were missed in 2009.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Dec 12, 2009 6:29 PM CST up reply actions
Again, and Davis. Got to have more production from 1B.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
leadership
I can’t see the rangers swapping lowell out for gomes. Dye, Thome – not Gomes. (I also realize that the first two probably aren’t likely for other reasons)
When you can't even stick on the Reds roster I'd have to say pass.
My guess, next stop Pittsburgh.
well, it is a little different for a guy whose natural position is DH
in the NL.
the preceding post was a great success.
Gomes may be better than Lowell
but there is a decent chance Gomes could be this season’s Ben Broussard, whereas Lowell’s floor is still above replacement level.
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Dec 12, 2009 5:55 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Yup. AJM, other Gomes fans: does the difference in variance in expected performance
between Lowell and Gomes not factor into the decision? Or do you just think the difference is small?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Indeed
given that we’re aiming to compete in 2010, performance variation should be at least a partial factor in all of this. In 2008, Jonny Gomes was a AAA player. Guys like Gomes are dudes you give a NRI to.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
So it's offical:
Trading Max Ramirez for Mike Lowell is officially unnecessary.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
well how many RHB out there
have the same leadership qualities in the clubhouse as Lowell? I don’t understand why this club feels they need a veteran leader in the lockerroom.
|Space for Rent|
clubhouse dynamic issues like these
we should at least defer a little to the club. I can’t quantify how much it helps but if these other guys are only going to be marginally better, I don’t mind going with Lowell.
Max Ramirez throws a wrench into the equation it is possible that the rangers have (correctly) assessed that he won’t turn into anything
Maybe there is a reason why this deal hasn't been finished
JD is basically holding out on Theo…
I would go as far as to say if this is not done by Tues or so, it is dead.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
JD and Theo are
really good friends, not sure that JD would back out at the last moment and leave Theo hanging. Not saying it couldn’t happen, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
by Randy Richardson on Dec 12, 2009 6:08 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think JoDa would jack Theo around intentionally, but it's good business to just make sure you're not overpaying when better options could be on the market
Granted, the deal still may go through because JD likes Lowell at his price better than Gomes or Cust or whoever else at their prices, but I think it’s fair to assume that JD will try to get what he believes to be the best deal.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Internet greatness http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/11/10/1125340/will-carroll-calls-out-josey-wales
from what I've read,
they’ve “agreed in principle” to a deal.
by Randy Richardson on Dec 12, 2009 6:12 PM CST up reply actions
I thought it was Lowell's medicals that where holding it up
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
and Max's medicals as well
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
somebody's medcals
i think both teams have reservations after seeing what they did, but i feel like the Red Sox have more, given that
a) Nolan was talking like Lowell is already here
b) The Red Sox have no reason to rush into this. They might want to wait and see if they can grab Beltre or if they can just grab a catcher for less money
Has anyone considered this possibility
Maybe they held off on the trade to see what the non tender market is?
Garret Atkins
Can play 1B, 3B, LF and DH. WHAT IF last year was just an anomaly? I know he’s trended down, but if he rebounds and you can get him for $3MM (the clint hurdle connection?) – wow.
Jack Daddy
Atkins
has ridiculous home-road splits.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
And even ignoring that, his four-year trend is ugly.
I guess there’s always the dead-cat bounce.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
atkins
i went to his espn page to heck on a stat, and saw this on the news part of the page
“Texas has reportedly expressed interest, but Atkins’ downward spiral across the board over the last few seasons doesn’t bode well for his chances of landing more than a one-year deal in 2010.”
Hmm?
I’m opposed to him personally. Bad bad trends.
the preceding post was a great success.
AJM
I agree with you strictly from a statistical perspective, but we have to at least discuss the clubhouse factor. Not sure how much credence this deserves but clearly JD is more familiar with the state of the Rangers clubhouse than us. Maybe he feels that Lowell’s presence in the clubhouse outweighs the differences on the field between a guy like him and Gomes. It should be noted that MIlly (a veteran) and Byrd (a vocal clubhouse leader) are no longer Rangers.
Again, I'd like to hear more about the statistical perspective.
Is the variance difference between the expected 2010 performances for Gomes and Lowell not something that bears considering?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
If we had the money to spare
I’d be really glad to have Lowell as backup 1b/3b and DH vs lefties only. And pick up Cust or similar for the other half.
Though lowell probably wouldn’t be a real positive influence in the clubhouse if hes simultaneously traded away from where he wants to be and demoted. If his hip is better hes still a starting quality 3b..
Not that we would do both anyway.
the preceding post was a great success.
Well, we have heard conflicting things out of Boston about Lowell's "clubhouse behavior".
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I think
Boston’s FO are a bunch of goat-fucking whores. There I said it.
Seriously, when has a negotiation with Boston not been leaked into the press? Or when has a player who is on the outs with management not been outed to the public? Remember how we said that Buck Showalter is a dick because he leaked bad things about players? I think that’s what Boston does as an entire fucking organization.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Beyond that
I really think we undervalue consistent production. Mike Lowell has a higher floor than these guys that just got non-tendered. If we are going to compete, we can’t afford a black hole. Mike Lowell will be something, but his chances of being a black hole are far less than Jonny Gomes.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Yeah, that's a good point
Someone, in comparing Lowell to MaxRam the other day, made the comment that Lowell doesn’t improve the ceiling at the DH position but he improves the floor. And I think we’ve got to make sure the floor is taken care of under these circumstances.
"Dying ain't hard. It’s living in the wake of a thorough public humiliation that’s hard.--JDT217
Internet greatness http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/11/10/1125340/will-carroll-calls-out-josey-wales
Hi.
Was me.
Sure, Lowell for free is a decent player. The past two years, he put up OPS’s of .798 and .811 and wOBA’s of .344 and .346. It’s not a bad hitter, but it’s not a great hitter either. I’m higher on MaxRam than most, but I think he could have given you similar numbers at the major league level towards the end of this coming year. Even if he doesn’t, this seems more like a raising the floor move than a raise the ceiling (like Harden was), and MaxRam seems a steep price to pay for that.
This suggests two things to me. First, the Rangers have plans to bring in another catcher considering Salty’s injury situation (and the rumors that are leaking out about Navarro, Kendall, etc) and not roll with Teagarden and MaxRam and an emergency option in AAA while Salty is out. Second, the Rangers are in win now mode. They leveraged their starting pitching depth to raise their No.1 starter ceiling with the Millwood-Harden swap. Now they are leveraging a decent trade piece (or late 2010 DH option) to make sure that there is a better DH/backup 1B option. If they still planned on building/developing in 2010, this move doesn’t make sense.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 13, 2009 1:17 AM CST up reply actions
I'm confident in Mike Lowell
I wouldn’t be as confident in Jonny, and for that reason alone I want Lowell.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
Honestly
Mike Lowell isn’t a much better hitter than David Murphy. I’d be cool with taking a flyer on Gomes or Cust for the sake of their upside (850 OPS?), rather than having Mike Lowell post a certain 790-820.
Ugh
Murphy against RHP
Lowell against LHP
That shouldn’t be a ~800 OPS. It should be around a ~850 OPS
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
It's fine
if both can play other positions. It’s not when you’re DHing Jonny Gomes and Jack Cust.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I don't get the fascination
with mediocre sluggers with 30% so rates. There’s a book out called “Mathletics” and one of the several interesting things the author shows is that obp is twice as important as slugging as it relates to actual runs scored. Why not DH Murphy against RHP and German vs LHP. Yes, you give up some slugging, but he puts the ball in play. That matters particularly with runners on. Flame away!
In vino, veritas
Murphy
Isn’t that great at getting on base, and Esteban German isn’t a good enough hitter to DH period.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Having studied a little more...
I WOULD rather have Lowell if he can continue his 08-09 numbers. It’s just that 3mil + Max chafes a little. I’ll get over it.
In vino, veritas
Murphy
had the best BB% of any returning Ranger (which isn’t saying much, since the ’09 Rangers epically sucked at drawing walks). The main probably was giving him too many PAs against LHPs.
by Randy Richardson on Dec 12, 2009 9:01 PM CST up reply actions
What is it about "against RHP" don't you understand?
Everyone on here agrees David Murphy should not play against LHP. But he is a pretty nice player when hes facing RHP. Last year he had a OBP of almost 360 against them with a 78 point spread between BA and OBP. He is fine against RHP whether it be as a DH or in the field.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
x
He is fine against RHP whether it be as a DH or in the field.
And I don’t dispute that. I just think we can do better than “fine” if we really want to contend in 2010.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Not in our current financial position
And I think he is a little better than fine I didn’t know you were such a stickler on those little words
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
why?
we did decent with ass awful in 2009
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Why not?
I think going and getting a high-ceiling DH could impact the team a lot more next year than spending the rest of our money piecemeal on a bunch of Darren Olivers and Ronny Paulinos.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
That high-ceiling
comes from an extremely low floor.
We already have a big ? mark at 1B and C. And another one at LF. Not to mention probable regression @ 3B and RF. And a rookie at CF and a 21 year old at SS. I think having a high floor platoon @ DH with reasonable upside is better for this as opposed to the Jonny Gomes and Jack Custs of the world.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
See, those question marks and regression are all reasons I want more potential impact out of DH.
After all, if one of those OF question marks gets hurt or sucks, Murphy’s going right back out to LF everyday anyway, leaving Mike Lowell to DH full time. And Mike Lowell doesn’t produce enough overall to DH full time.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
If Cruz or Hamilton gets hurt or sucks, the Rangers have bigger problems
than who the full-time DH becomes.
And if Young gets hurt, it’s a different scenario again, right?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
This is getting nowhere
Jack Cust and Jonny Gomes have low floors
We already have a lot of players on our team with low floors
If we can take a blackhole from 2009 and replace it with a .800-.870 OPS location (from Murphy-Lowell), we get better while lessening the impact of our low floor players.
Which part of this is hard to understand?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Dispersion is such a bitch.
Central tendencies are so much sexier…
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Fine
But what are the chances of ALL those players flopping? Probably not any better than all of them succeeding, either.
So I’ll concede the Gomes/keeping MaxRam thing and say for a minute the Lowell trade goes through. Why does that make going out and adding Jack Cust a bad thing? You’ve still got Murphy to provide you with your “high floor” and you’ve added more potential for some big boom in the lineup.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Money. And the 40 trumps all.
And, by the way, the chances of all of those players flopping is, in fact, most probably higher than the chances of all of them succeeding.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
exactly, if we had a 60 man roster
then go right ahead
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
Because
we have other holes that we want to address. Players like Jack Cust and Jonny Gomes are players you give a NRI to, like we did with Andruw Jones last year. They’re not a commodity you invest a lot of money in when your payroll flexibility is nonexistent.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Other holes like what?
Catcher? There’s really nobody out there that is really that much better than either of our guys, and shitty catchers are getting insane contracts this winter. Utility INF? Should be able to pick up another NRI for that along the way for next to nothing.
We’ve added several LOOGY candidates to a bullpen we already have plenty of guys for. We’ve got plenty of rotation depth, and we’ve installed Harden as a potential #1. We’re probably picking up Lowell unless his thumb falls off.
I’m just failing to see what other “holes” we have left to fill that would outweigh adding Jack Cust’s offensive potential.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Well
we got about 2 million or so left to play with. Any UT IF worth his salt with need about 500 K-1 million. And we don’t just need a catcher b/c of our catcher’s lack of production, we need one because our starter is not yet healthy and our backup has an injury history. So there’s another million or so. There’s just not much room and not much 40 space for the lefty Andruw Jones. (And that’s exactly what Jack Cust is).
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I thought it was 5-6 mil to play with.
And comparing Jack Cust to Andruw Jones is kind o insane.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Both are low BA
decent walk rates and high strike out players with good power and streaky as fuck.
They’re the exact same fucking player.
13.8 % 25.6 % 0.63
15.3 % 36.1 % 0.50
BB, K, BB/K.
Guess who is who?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
You're blatanly ignoring the part where one of them
Has been terrible for three years now, while the other had two extremely good seasons in 2007 and 8 and maintained a certain level of productivity last year despite having a poor season power-wise.
This is hyperbole.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Two things
1) YOu have exactly 0 room to call anyone else out for hyperbole.
2) Jones have a better history of being good than Jack Cust. Cust had a great 2007 and a good 2008 and a long history of sucking ass before that. Jones had a great everything else before 2007, a mediocre 2007 and a bad 2008.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
So now you're going to go to "who had a better career"
To save your argument, when the last three years are far more relevant to predicting their performance next year, which is what we’re talking about?
Whatever.
Also, you pump out just as much hyperbole as anyone around here. In fact, exaggerating things is pretty much your entire sctick.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
So if Cust's last three years are so indicative of what he'll do next year
What makes you think he’ll come to Texas on a one year deal for minimal money or a NRI even?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Good park for lefties, good young team
I don’t see why we wouldn’t be an attractive place for him to come and try to revive his power #’s.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Theres other good parks he could go to
And im sure other teams who would either give him a multi year deal or more money than we can
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
No
the argument is that the thing that you value so much about Cust, his BB% is almost the exact same as ANdruw Jones. Every offensive category with Cust has fallen the last 3 years. The argument is that Cust is a bad investment.
He might very well go back to 2007 Cust, but he’s not that good of a bet to. For one, he has Old Player skills, for 2nd he’s been regressing for 3 years, that’s a fucking trend. And 3rd, last year, as a player he was a good approximation of Andruw Jones.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Then
Why the fuck have you ever argued that Vlad Guerrero would be a good investment, when he’s displayed the same kinds of trends over a longer period?
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Because Vlad is RH and has crushed LHP in the past
Not necessarily last year or even the last two years but he fits what we need alot better than Cust
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Vlad Guerrero
what’s his floor? His 2008? That’s a .795 OPS and a .830-.850 OPS vs. lefties?
Despite being a very bad fundamentals player, Vlad, I think, has a high floor as well. Add to the fact that he also has a high ceiling, and Vlad Guerrero is a very good investment, especially if he gets 1 year.
It’s not that hard of a logic to follow.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
That should be 2009
my bad. Still .795 OPS (that’s higher than Jack Cust, btw) and a good line vs. lefties + when he was healthy Vlad was a god among hitters.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
But
Jack Cust and Vlad Guerrero’s wOBA’s over the last three years are practically identical.
They’ve been the same damn player production wise, and Vlad is more broken down than Cust is, and he doesn’t have his walk tendancies to fall back on like Cust does.
I see nothing that tells me that Vlad has “higher floor” than Cust.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
OBAs
that’s right, Cust tends to put up great OBAs because he walks a lot. Check out some contact rates, some SLG and the otherwise. Check out Cust’s increasing FB rates. His bat is slowing down, and that’s extremely scary for a Ol Pl Sk guy.
Vlad has a higher floor because despite the fact that he was injured last year, he put up a .800ish OPS. In fact, his 2nd half was better than his first, SSS applied, of course.
What’s Jack Cust’s floor? .660 that he put up in 2006? The numerous other times he’s failed? 2005 Brad Wilkerson?
If you can’t see the difference, you either aren’t looking very hard or is just pants on head retarded.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
And focusing only on wOBAs is pretty weak
even for you.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Actually, I was just gonna say that pulling Vlad's OPS last year like some kind of trump card
When wOBA says he and Cust where identical production-wise is pretty weak.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
As you said
Vlad and Cust are different types of players. Given that Cust walks a lot, especially during his great years, using wOBA as an indicator does give him a great advantage. Regardless, Cust’s Ol Pl Sk tendencies makes me thing he’s a lower floor guy than Guerrero.
Are you willing to say that Cust’s floor> Guerrero’s?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
And one more thing
despite trailing off last year, Vlad has been pretty consistent contact wise. Cust has seen those decline, and I worry about Old Player Skill guys with declining contact rates.
Vlad seems like a better bet to be productive in his mid 30s vs. Cust, who is already approaching the Old Player Skill peak (like early 30s), IMHO.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Contact%
Cust’s isn’t a high contact hitter, but his contact% this year was actually better than both 2007 and 2008. In fact, it was a career high.
And yet he’s declining contact-wise?
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
DShep should model this showdown
in his video game.
Firebat versus Baseball Jesus.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
I've missed LSB.
I wish I had more time to procrastinate these days.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
I'll put my money on FbM3
Someone just learned how to cuss on the computer, and it is very telling…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Are you giving Z contact
and OZ contact equal weight? Cust swung more at pitches last year, but you’re right, my bad. I misread the third year and saw his Z% where his C% should have been.
Regardless, though, he’s making less great contact last year and the breakdown trends of his peripherals tends to be disturbing.
Do you not admit that he has a lesser floor than Vlad Guerrero?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I'll admit, he probably carries a tad more risk than a healthy Vlad
But Vlad isn’t healthy, and I don’t really think he’s ever going to be 100% healthy again.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Even not healthy
Vlad put up decent numbers in a limited sample size
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
and he carries a lot more risk
IMHO. When was the last time a guy with contact issues and Ol Player Skills had a better career in his early 30s vs. his late 40s.
In fact, I’m willing to make a bet out of this. I bet, all things equal, Vlad will be a better player in 2010 than Jack Cust.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
FWIW, tOPS+'s in the second half this year
Again, almost identical: Vlad 112, Cust 114.
They arrive at their production very differently, but they’ve been almost exactly the same player the last three years, right down to their 1st/2nd half splits this season.
I will say, looking at them in comparison has made me realize if I’m going to advocate for Cust I’ll have to admit Vlad would be fine here too, despite his abysmal walk rate. He and Cust look like the same player production wise, so one should probably have similar expectations of them going into 2010.
However, I’m still sticking with my feeling that Cust would be a better fit here than Vlad for 2010. Not just because he walks (and I still think the team needs that) but also because he’s left-handed and less frail. Which, IMO could make him a better bet to have a larger revival in production next year, despite his “old man skills”.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Ok
what are you willing to wager as far as Cust vs. Vlad 2010?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
You mean in terms of predicting their production?
Cust, I think the RBiA’s RF porch could maybe put him back into the .370’s in wOBA, similar to his 2008 season.
Vlad… I dunno, and that’s the thing. I could see him gimping around to a rough duplicate of his 2009 season just as easily (if not moreso) as I can seeing him rebounding to a wOBA similar to what I just predicted for Cust.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Their James predictions BTW and .375 and .377...
Not that James predictions mean anything, just another example of how close they seem production-wise.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Based on a limited sample
for Cust and a 10+ year career for Guerrero.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Don't claim to ever have been interested in how the James predictions work
But why would they take into account Vlad’s whole career and only what Cust has done recently?
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I meant
Cust had a limited sample. James projections project based off of Major League numbers, so Vlad has been consistently excellent in his career with injury problems lately while Cust has really just had a 3 year audition.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Assuming LH
guys will always reign in TBiA is the pitfall of many acquisitions.
OPS+ straight up, who will be a better player in 2010?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Cust.
I think Vlad will be gimped up for at least part of next year, and wind up pretty much repeating 2009 overall.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
And what are you willing to wager?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Well, you're talking to a guy who doesn't currently have much to wager...
How serious are we talking? Like 50 bucks or something?
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Nah something fun
like gets to make the other guy’s display pic.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Okay...
Winner chooses the other guy’s avy for the duration of next offseason?
Maybe the loser also has to carry “Jack Cust/Vlad Guerrero is my hero” in his sig or something like that, as well.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Good deal
nothing against SB Nation rules, but something sufficiently embarrasing.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Sounds good.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
If they had $5 million going into the meetings,
which is what I thought I’d remembered reading, then they have $2-2.5 million now.
They banked $8 million in the Millwood deal, and then spent $7.5 million of that on Harden. Then there’s the $3 million for Cust. That puts them $2.5 million in the hole, out of a possible $5 million, right? (And that doesn’t include German’s signing ~ I haven’t looked at those details yet.)
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Oops. The $3 million for Lowell, that should read.
Freudian slip, or something?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Well, I'm going off of what Evan Grant said the other day right after the Harden signing.
Maybe you’re right though, but if that’s the case, we’re probably pretty much done for the offseason, outside of adding depth to C and INF.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
FUcking exactly
it took this long of a thread to get that through? How has your mother not ran away from home yet?
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
I missed what Grant said the other day.
But based on the numbers in Jeff Wilson’s piece from Thursday, it comes out to $5 million.
(Though he forgot that Ray cost the Rangers $1 million, so that the net from the Millwood deal was only $8 million, and he doesn’t note that Harden’s cost is essentially $7.5 million.)
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
At any rate,
everything I’ve heard and read suggests that you’re exactly right:
[The Rangers are] probably pretty much done for the offseason, outside of adding depth to C and INF.
Which is why Cust doesn’t make much sense, assuming the Lowell trade goes through.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Well, then whatever.
If we can’t sign Cust that’s one thing, but it still doesn’t mean he’d have been a bad acquisition.
I’m just still trying to find ways to actually improve the team in 2010.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I tend to judge acquisitions
in context, so Cust doesn’t look so good for the 2010 Texas Rangers.
He’d be a good pickup for some other club, given the right financial and roster circumstances.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Harden
But the extra 1 million from the buyout wouldn’t cost us until after the season so it shouldn’t really be calculated into what we have right now since next winter looks to be under different ownership and thus different financial situations
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I don't know how the money lines up
in terms of fiscal years, especially from MLB’s perspective.
And we know that MLB’s perspective is the one that counts here.
Regardless, that makes it ~$3 million left to spend. And, of course, that doesn’t include any incentives from the Harden deal ~ not sure how MLB would look at that. Some sort of discounting based on probability of achievement?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Incentives are paid when earned
Or in a lump sum on an agreed upon date, so that really doesn’t matter right now, assuming the sale is closed by July-August ’10.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
You think the Rangers can afford Lowell and Cust?
And that Cust is a better addition in terms of 2010 contention than finding a decent defensive catcher, in case Saltalamacchia and Teagarden can’t hack it this year? And/or a utility infielder that can play shortstop?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
And apart from that
we did fine with a very bad DH platoon and a very bad 1B last year. If we can upgrade that DH platoon to decent, we’re going to be a stronger team on paper vs. last year. If we are a 85ish win last year, we’d be better off upgrading a horrid spot with a high floor combo to get into contention.
It’s all about taking risks in spots that make sense and getting consistency from other spots, not creating a team of question marks and praying for everything to break right.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Dispersion is such a bitch.
Central tendencies are so much sexier…
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Woah, you and LSJ goin at it.
A couple comments. First, I want to point out that while there is value in the consistency of a high-floor type player, much of the decreased value in low-floor, high-ceiling typed players can be mitigated by accumulating a lot of them. This especially plays out well with bullpen guys, as JD has shown (among others). Last year it didn’t work out so well because there were only 3 guys (Davis, Andruw Jones, Blalock) for the 2 spots (1B, DH). I’m not sure if this was truly egregious on JD’s part because I don’t know anyone who thought Chris Davis would be that bad at the beginning of the season. Still, in an ideal world, you could throw Chris Davis, Jack Cust and/ or Ryan Gomes, MaxRam, and Justin Smoak (in some order) at the 1B/DH problem with Murphy as your high-floor backup. In this case, your are mitigating the low floor risks of each of the individual players by volume. The 40 man issues are negligible if you just sign one of them, not impossible if you could sign both.
The main problem with this approach involves what you leverage. The Harden move makes sense because you are offsetting his risk (not enough innings) with a reasonable replacement (league-average pitching depth), allowing yourself to fit your financial constraint. They are leveraging the general health of their infield by not investing more heavily in a backup UIF. When it comes to inviting a bunch of low floor, high ceiling relief pitchers, you are leveraging the high number of relief pitchers a team can carry and the low number of actual innings pitched (allowing a player time to heal, get pulled quickly if they aren’t doing well, etc).
If you go with a bunch of low-floor, high-ceiling guys at 1B/DH, you can’t switch them out as easily as with RP’s. You’re going to have to play them a fair bit to see if they can find ‘it’ again. And during this time that they are hitting their floors, it is costing your runs and games. The Rangers aren’t the Yankees who have so few question marks that they can throw lots of low-floor/high-ceiling options at one position. The Rangers don’t have the money, 40 man space, or margin for error that the Yankees do.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 13, 2009 1:42 AM CST up reply actions
LSJ, losing this argument son
we aint got no money for any such non-sense, We have enough variance with guys like Salty, Hambone, Borbon, Davis on the offensive side, why should we replace a guy who we know is gonna give us solid OF defense and a solid above replacement bat against RHP
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
Gomes...
isn’t someone I really want to see the Rangers go after.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
OT: Baseball Media
I like to get myself going for the next season by watching some baseball shows and movies. We have some movies that everyone has seen and some books that I read, but if anyone wants to check out an excellent Baseball Anime, check out Big Windup.
No supernatural stuff, just a very indepth look at the game of baseball as told through the POV of a High School battery.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Ryan Garko interest anyone? Non'tendered by SF....
DH, backup 1b, can play some COF. He was also a catcher at Stanford-maybe can be an emergency catcher if necessary.
"I’m not in the meetings and not part of the discussions; it’s not my responsibility. . My responsibility is to go out and win tonight. My focus is to win tonight. The club has to look at more than just this year." -Michael Young
Seems a lot like Gomes
at least on the surface
What do voluntary mean?
Inasmuch as Lowell and he have almost identical OPS+ and LHP numbers
Over the last three years, I am really coming around on defensive versatility. Though, to be fair, neither belong in the OF.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
yes
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 13, 2009 1:44 AM CST up reply actions
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