LSB Community Prospect Project: Post-Season #14
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 17, 2009 7:37 AM CST
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PrintMax Ramirez won the runoff to be named the Rangers # 13 prospect and Blake Beavan came in second to bethe #14 prospect.
The List So Far:
#1. RHP Neftali Feliz
#2. LHP Martin Perez
#3. 1B Justin Smoak#4. RHP Tanner Scheppers
#5. RHP Michael Main
#6. LHP Robbie Ross
#7. RHP Wilmer Font
#8. RHP Danny Gutierrez
#9. RF/DH/1B Mitch Moreland
#10. LHP Kasey Kiker
#11. SS Jurick Profar
#12. C Max Ramirez
#13. RHP Blake Beavan
Time to move on to the vote for #14.
The polls are open, so go ahead and vote in the poll at the bottom and feel free to make any suggestions and/or criticisms in the comments below.
And, as always, please don't hesitate to tell me you want on the list for next time.
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Cup 'a Joe
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
This is where you really see how strong this system remains.
The amount of quality depth we have is mind boggling. I voted for Beltre, but you could toss about 7-10 names in here and have a valid argument…I love it.
One of the guys I'm most anxious to see next year is Erlin.
You guys think they will send him to Spokane?
Yeah probably like they did Ross
Because I don’t see a roto spot for him in Hickory.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 17, 2009 8:21 AM CST up reply actions
Matt Thompson, Chad Bell, Braden Tullis, Keith Campbell, Robbie Ross
I could see Boscon going back too if needed.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 17, 2009 9:14 AM CST up reply actions
Not Boscon, meant NeRa
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 17, 2009 9:17 AM CST up reply actions
Its pretty fluid at this point.
I think NeRa and Doyle definitely start there at least while the kids get stretched out in extended, along with maybe Wieland, too.
Don’t know why Campbell deserves a spot, but he makes me pretty flaccid. I’d much rather see us push one of the younger kids like Thompson, Erlin, Bell, Escobar, Alvarez, Grullon, McBride, etc…
The 40 Trumps All!!!
"You like Castlevania, don't you?" -Psycho Mantis.
by thedirkatron on Dec 18, 2009 4:03 AM CST up reply actions
Bako could be
Jake Brigham, Andrew Doyle, Carlos Pimentel, Wilfredo Boscon, Michael Main
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 17, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions
Forgot about Wieland...
Maybe Doyle or Pimentel in the pen.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 17, 2009 9:21 AM CST up reply actions
FONT!!!
As above, I think Doyle starts in Hickory, and I don’t know that Brigham gets a rotation spot… it’s just so crowded.
Font, Pimentel, Boscan, and then either Brigham or Main (either here or Frisco) or NeRa or Wieland here or in Hickory.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
"You like Castlevania, don't you?" -Psycho Mantis.
by thedirkatron on Dec 18, 2009 4:10 AM CST up reply actions
That roto spot could open up before Spokane starts their season.
I don’t expect Ross to stay in Hickory very long and Erlin replacing him in the rotation would be perfect.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
From this point you have to go with most likely to impact the club, imo
That’s why I went Strop. He has a legit shot to be a shut down reliever next year.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Strizzop
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 17, 2009 9:26 AM CST reply actions
Based on what Phil? Upside?
I just dont see how, in the range we are now in, you can vote for upside and not impact. But it’s one of those fights that could never be won.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
I guess at this point when there is a prospect
on the cusp of impacting the M.L. team. Beltre’s upside means nothing until i start seeing results.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
I'll take a young player whose plate discipline is all that's keeping him from being a superstar. . .
. . . over someone who’s probably going to be a good reliever.
They’re close and all, and that’s a BIG if on Beltre, but I’ll still take it over a RP prospect.
Yeah I get it,
that’s why I said its like a fight that can’t be won. I get that a younger player with a big upside is gonna win over people. Plate discipline could damage his whole career so until I see improvement I couldn’t vote for him. At least with some other prospects you see improvment. He has had none so far in batting.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
It's not like I'm voting him over someone who's guaranteed anything more than being a reliever.
I’m betting the difference is between how much we value replacement level relief pitchers.
I think you undervalue a good reliever
Strop has the upside to be a dominant closer. Those aren’t so easy to come by, and he still has some growing to do, but I agree with NYTX here, where if a guy doesn’t show improvement, I can’t vote him here. Beltre has got “raw” talent, but that is all. He has done nothing at the plate to turn any of those raw talents into assets.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Strop has that upside
but its not like we’re talking about the next Rivera or something. He’s a 24/25 year old with practically no Major League experience, injury concerns, and not much of a track record in the upper levels of the minors either. I just don’t see how Strop has done much to make someone value him more than Beltre.
Actually, I find it hard to believe Strop would get votes over some other guys too, but I also don’t value RP prospects that much. Its one thing to be a guy like Hunter was when people were saying he’d make a great RP if it didn’t work out in the rotation for him. Its another thing when all the guy has is the potential to pitch 60-70 good innings.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
G,
this is why I say it’s an argument that can’t be won. A case could be made for both players.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
What's the case for Strop though?
His ceiling is that of a closer and his floor is that he is consistently hurt and can’t ever stick in the Majors. And a closer just isn’t that valuable. Being an elite closer in the Majors means you’re likely going to be worth the same as a league average starter.
I just don’t see how someone can look at Beltre and Strop and say that Strop is that much more of a sure thing to be worth ranking ahead of the potential 5 tool player.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
what 5 tools?
he has been in the stateside minor leagues for 3 years, and I haven’t seen power (I understand his age etc). He’s had some decent speed, but he gets caught alot. Of course, his speed on the bases will hardly factor in when he can’t get on base. Granted, he’ll be 20 yrs old next year likely repeating A+, but I don’t give him a pass over the last 3 years of bad performance. Last year, I felt Beltre was a top 10 prospect but needed to prove something this year. Without him proving it on the field now, I have a hard time voting on his potential.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
His 2008 wasn't terrible
He was 18 playing in full season ball and held a .283 average and if I remember correctly led the entire MWL in hits. As an 18 year old thats pretty impressive.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I don't think he was that good in 08
especially when you look at his 2.6 BB%. His BB/K was .14. That is terrible and amounts to 105 SOs and 15 BBs. I will say though his K% in 08 of 18.6% is by far the best of his career. but the BB% was the worst in the same year.
so yeah, he hit 283 that year with a 308 OBP. He needs to show more as far as plate discipline
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
His plate discipline has always been bad
If that was the only part of his game that was bad in 08 then I consider it a pretty good year for him.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
The tools that every scout says he has
or has the potential to have.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
They say the same things about Greg Golson too.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
And it doesn't always work out
Still, its worth the risk when you’re talking about a RP
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Replacement level for a relief pitcher is probably only a little worse than an average major league pitcher.
I’m not sure you’re undervaluing RP prospects.
Nevermind year to year variance.
Really?
I think this is the perfect time to begin going more for ceiling. We’re past the point where we’re comparing Feliz to Perez or Font to Gutierrez. Right now, you have to go with the superstar potential players and Beltre has that potential.
Plus, you can always go to the rule of thumb for these. For me, if I’m given the choice to trade Beltre or Strop, I’m giving away the guaranteed RP vs. the potential superstar.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
how long can we continue to call him a "potential superstar"
I don’t think you will find a lot of superstars that hit .227 / .281 / .317 in the California League.
I think it would be just about as accurate to say that Strop is a potential Mariano Rivera clone as it is to say that Beltre is a potential superstar.
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
Beltre
just keep in mind how young he still is. There is still plenty of time for it to click for him at the plate.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
and some kids just can't cut it at the plate
I hope Beltre can turn it around, but he has yet to show that he can — even a little.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
If he shows little to know improvement when repeating a level, I'm done with him.
At this stage, if he shows a serious regression on improvement I’ll probably be done with him, as well.
Not improvement, promotion.
He’s going to AA I assume this year, right? If he’s a lot worse at AA than he was at A+, then that’s probably going to kill him for me as early as the mid-season vote.
Im not so sure he'll start in frisco
I’d expect him to start again in High A. It seems like his promotion this season was more one of convenience, since gentry got called up to the rangers
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
Yep
I imagine he will start in Bakersfield and if he starts off well out of the gate get the bump to Frisco mid-late May
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
If he starts in A+ and shows no marked improvement in discipline. . .
. . . this is the last time I put him over anyone I think is likely to make the majors.
and using the criteria in your last sentence
Personally, I’d much rather trade away a guy like Beltre, that may very well never make it to AA, as opposed to a guy that I think will be excelling in late inning relief at the ML level next season.
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
I just can't agree with that
Like I said above, I don’t value RP prospects that much. I’ll take my chances on guys like Beltre every time over a RP like Strop.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Are the Beavan people voting for Eric Hurley now?
Hurley is not even top 25 in this system. He wasn’t that good before he got hurt, and his labrum issues may continue to trouble him. Hurley is done.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
He was good,
in a weak system, but now I agree he doesn’t and shouldn’t be in the top 25.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Just a little bit of a Hurley refresher
As a 19 year old in Clinton, Hurley struck out 152 in 155.1 IP with a 3.4 BB/9. The next year in Bakersfield, he struck out 106 batters in 100.2 IP with a 2.8 BB/9. He finished off the season as a 20 year old in Frisco who struck out 7.5 per 9 and only walked 2.8. The next season in Frisco, he put up a pretty similar line over more starts. And he did all of this with actual talent and not just getting by against weak competition.
My point is, Hurley was good no matter what. Our system just has seen a good few prospects in recent years that have been even better than Hurley was, but that doesn’t make Hurley or what he did worse. Even in this system, if we had the 19/20 year old Hurley in the rankings, he’d be right there with Main and Ross, right below that top tier.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Dec 17, 2009 11:06 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Hey I don't dislike Hurley at all,
I still like him as a future piece to the puzzle. He could be a very intriguing trade chip with some ML experience also.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
All that my be true
but there’s no why I’m going to put him in my top 30 until he proves he came come back from a really bad injury. A torn rotator cuff and a frayed labrum is a huge injury that a lot of pitchers don’t come back from and if they do, most of the time not with the stuff they had before.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 17, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions
The team has said he's good to go
and will take it slowly with him. Of course, anything can happen and Hurley might end up as a worst case scenario, but right now there isn’t anything to show that Hurley is going to end up like that. Until the injury comes back to hurt him, I’m going to just give him a mulligan for 09 and not worry too much about the injury./
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
"until the injury comes back to hurt him"
Thanks for that- first belly laugh of the day.
By this strangely twisted Gdawg syllogism, Hurley is not actually injured at all, and, should you accept it, is definitely top 10. Or alternatively, Gdawg’s Hurley plot is a continual reenactment of one his fav movie plots, say, 12 monkies, where the dude is continually sent back to the wrong time (I guess in this instance, HighA) to put things right (his Hurely dreams).
Yep
Because young pitchers with no injury history who have sat out over a year always come back and have their shoulders fall off. The team says he’s fine, he’s going to come to ST and pitch a little, and will start the season in AAA proving he is healthy. Until there’s some setbacks, I don’t see any reason to just assume that Hurley will never pitch again like some here clearly think.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Hurley vs Kiker
Interesting comparison…
H/9____HR/9___BB/9____K/9___SO/BB
Hurley_____6.5_____1.2_____2.6____7.4____2.79
Kiker______7.7_____0.6_____4.7____8.6____1.83
Hurley’s numbers are across two seasons when he was 20-21yo. Kiker was 21 last year in AA. The shine did come off Hurley a bit when he struggled some in AAA. If healthy, Hurley would probably rank around #10, IMHO.
|Space for Rent|
Rangermad,
How bout homerun totals. He has been homer prone right?
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
thank you!
"The mystery of the beginning of all things is insoluble by us; and I for one must be content to remain an agnostic" - Charles Darwin, you know who he is...
by 8legs2fangs on Dec 17, 2009 12:25 PM CST up reply actions
I think I'm going to start voting for him a few spots from now
Having really looked past getting Beltre on the board, but Hurley is still an ML ready SP with a number 2 ceiling (though probably will end up as a solid mid-rotation guy). If it wasn’t for the injury, I’d probably be voting for him by now. I’m still not too concerned about it since he’s never been seriously hurt before this injury and is still only 24 years old. The Rangers SP depth ahead of Hurley also helps to reassure me that Hurley will be handled carefully to make sure they can get the most out of him.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I don't think Hurley has the ceiling of a #2 or ever did
especially after his near ‘kiss of death’ injury. His FIP was only respectable in his A+ season. Every other year, he was either in the 5’s or 4’s. The main years you quote above are from 2005 and 2006. That is a long time ago to be using stats. He is not ML ready until he proves healthy, and I have my doubts he will ever even be close to what he was, which was more or a 4 or 5 guy.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
His FIP has generally been pretty good
He’s never been great, but a 20 year old putting up a 4.26 FIP in Bakersfield and a 4.12 FIP in Frisco is a good pitcher and he did have the potential to turn into a good number 2. The only time he actually struggled was in Oklahoma when his HRs got out of control. Again though, given his age and his stuff at the time, that didn’t make him a 4 or 5 guy.
Is Sheets not ML ready because his health is in question? Being ready for the Majors just means that’s where he stands with his development. Not much left to do in the minors right now other than to just pitch and work his way back to being 100%.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I narrowed it down to Moscoso and Strop here
And went with Moscoso, as I think he has a just-below ceiling that’s around Strop’s absolute ceiling- but Guillermo could potentially be a mid-rotation starter, whereas there’s no doubt Strop is going to be in a bullpen until his arm explodes in a wave of blood, bone, and tendons mid-slider.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
I will post this here from MLBtraderumors
It’s unclear from Jackson’s blurb who proposed what or if all three pitchers would be a possible return for Uggla. I believe that Sanchez alone would be more than enough for the Marlins – he has three years of team control compared to Uggla’s two.
Ianyone think we can engage the Giants into buying Cruz? He seems like a better option than Uggla. Not sure if they need outfielders but it seems like Sanchez is way to much to give up for Uggla. Not that that’s what was said.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Last year Sanchez would have been a nice get for us
But with the pitching depth that’s shown up or grown up over the last year, I’m not sure he’s so great as to give up Cruz for.
I’m thinking the difference between Sanchez and whomever wins the scrape for the fifth start this year (out of the Siege, Feliz, McCarthy, Harrison bunch) is negligible compared to the difference of Cruz over Murph over 150 someodd games
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
exactly
To even consider trading Cruz, you would need to be talking about a guy that would slot in front of Feldman in the rotation, not a 5th starter candidate.
Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.
But he'd functitonaly be replacing the #5
Either you’re looking at Harden/Feldman/Sanchez/Holland/Hunter, or Harden/Feldman/Holland/Hunter/One-of-grab-bag.
And the difference between Sanchez and whoever win the grab-bag spot isn’t going to be anywhere near the difference between Cruz as our full-time RF and Murph as our full-time RF.
Although, yeah, getting a 9 K/9 lefty would be nice, Sanchez would be nowhere near as valuable to this team as Nellie
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
Telis
until he’s on, but flip a coin here and vote for Beltre, Moscoso, Strop, Wieland, Beavan, Boscan…
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
right there with you
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 17, 2009 1:44 PM CST reply actions
bah, reply to Telegraph
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 17, 2009 1:45 PM CST up reply actions
Yo tyd3311
@Rangers texasrangers.com >> Mendoza impressing Rangers this winter http://bit.ly/7sQCDg
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Beltre...
although it’s very close between him and Wieland for me.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
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