M's trade Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 18, 2009 11:56 AM CST
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PrintThe Mariners have reportedly made a deal with the Chicago Cubs to send Carlos Silva to the Cubs for Milton Bradley.
The money here is similar. The difference is that Silva is not a good pitcher, and Bradley is a good hitter.
By adding Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, and Bradley, the M's have pretty well established themselves as the primary contender to the Angels in the A.L. West.
The Rangers, as things stand right now, are the third best team in the A.L. West. It continues to be distressing to see the Rangers' competitors make moves to improve their teams, in the year that was supposed to be the Rangers' year to compete for a playoff spot, while the Rangers seem to be treading water.
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Even with the losses
The Angels were a 97 win team in 2009. They may not have improvements but they are still likely to finish with at least 85 wins in this division, probably more.
A lot of people on here thought they'd be a ~85 win team last year
if i recall correctly. i warned them =p
the preceding post was a great success.
I certainly
was around that win total projection for them.
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Dec 18, 2009 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
I believed pretty much until Julyish that 90 wins won the West.
That was riiiight up until the Angels won 47 of 60, setting a franchise record for most wins in a 60 game span. That run they had last summer was simply unreal.
by FuturePants on Dec 18, 2009 12:12 PM CST up reply actions
I thought that the Angels may finish around there
but they, along with most teams in the West, had a large potential variance. So I always thought we’d see one team around 90-95, one around 85-90, one around 75-80, and one around 70-75. I wasn’t really sure which (though figured the Angels would be towards the top and the Mariners towards the bottom.
I think this coming year is going to be similar. The M’s will be higher on the list, but the Angels will be more variable and given the amount of talent they’ve lost should be estimated around 81 wins (of course, +/- 15 or so; I’ll hedge my bets). The Rangers and A’s both will have a ridiculous variability, as young teams often are.
Go Rice Owls!
So by wearing an Angels jersey it automatically means that you're going to win 85+ games
Like the Angels have never been bad before?
So by wearing an Angels jersey it automatically means that you’re going to win 85+ games
Pretty much. At least since Moreno’s been around.
by Anonymous New Guy on Dec 18, 2009 12:13 PM CST up reply actions
Jack Z
Is it too late to name him 2009 GM of the year? His work in the past month is simply preposterous. It seems too easy to dramatically improve your club.
Well it certainly seems like a lot of teams just can't spend money
so hes got quite an advantage. but nonetheless, it certainly looks like an amazing offseason.
the preceding post was a great success.
Except that
with these moves, Zduriencik has actually DROPPED payroll yet gained about 2-3 wins AT MINIMUM.
Granted, he had a lot of albatrosses and big contracts to get rid of……
But it’s not like he had Yankee money to make these moves with….
R
Johjima gifting them with walking away from his contract certainly helped
but yeah, he’s having a very good offseason.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
What the hell?
This is dumber than signing Bradley to that contract in the first place. Why Silva – A pitcher who makes a living on his Hideki Irabu impersonations? Maybe it’s his memorizing smile?
Not only that, Silva gets paid about $2.5 million more than Bradley in 2010, freeing up extra money for the M’s to do more things this offseason. If this is really a one-for-one deal and no cash going to Chicago, it’s epically stupid. They could have done better just releasing Bradley.
Damn Straight
I’m shocked that is the best that the cubs could do.
The Ms have definitely improved their team for 2010
But what about long term? I don’t think their future is as bright as the Rangers and while sure 2 or 3 years ago we all pointed to 2010 as our year that was also under the guise that we would have money to spend. I think us not having any money is what the real problem is. We are still a competitive team going into 2010 and our future looks brighter than ever.
I personally won’t be too disappointed if we are a 85-88 win team that is playing meaningful baseball into September and still have the future we have even if we don’t make the playoffs in 2010
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
2010
That the Rangers youngsters and new ownership are poised to make the Rangers a serious threat in coming years may be a big part of the M’s motivation to go all in in 2010.
by Neftali's arm on Dec 18, 2009 12:26 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Good to see
we won’t mess with Bradley, but we continue to dick around with an injured Lowell.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
by DJCahill on Dec 18, 2009 12:20 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
This really bothers you?
You could break your thumb tomorrow and still be ready for spring training. You can’t fix Milton Bradley
by corbsclinton on Dec 18, 2009 2:15 PM CST up reply actions
so do we know for sure
that no money is changing hands in this deal?
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
that's a good question, Clark
I’m glad you asked.
The Cubs are getting $9M from the M’s to complete the deal.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
look on the bright side
Having no money to spend means the Rangers have to continue playing the youngsters. Borbon will be in CF, Davis at 1B, Hamilton and Cruz in the OF. They will also have to go with a young pitching staff. No rent-a-vet that impedes anyone’s development. The money saved can be used on a true difference making pitcher of hitter next year via trade or FA.
|Space for Rent|
The money saved can be used on…
I’m not sure if you understand what’s happening here. We aren’t saving money, we simply don’t have it to spend. Just because bums live on the streets doesn’t mean they’re saving up for a penthouse.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
poorly phrased
Point is, if they did have money this year maybe JD would have spent it on 2-3 middling FA instead of letting the youngstes develop another year and using the money on one impact FA (or soon to be FA.)
|Space for Rent|
I don't care how much you want to trade Bradley...
Carlos Silva sucks beanbags, and this just a horrible trade for the Cubs.
Yeah, I don't get it either
Why would you trade an overpaid, oft-injured hitter, for a terrible, equally-paid, pitcher? Do the Cubs really have that much money to the point where they can just trade away a decent player for an awful one who makes the same, just to make room for a FA signing (because you know they’ll be going after Bay or Holliday)?
Why
the fuck did the M’s have to hire a competent GM?
The M’s are going to be good next year.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
They still don't have anyone in their lineup
who you could legitimately see hitting 20 HR’s. They better string a lot of singles rallies together.
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 12:28 PM CST reply actions
They have built
a 1980’s NL club offensively
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
If they score runs
I don’t see why they would care how those come, really.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 12:32 PM CST up reply actions
But will they score runs?
Right now I see a lot of table setters and not many table clearers…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions
Well, it's a good thing they're baseball players...
…instead of bus boys then, eh?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 18, 2009 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
Oh too bad
that joke rolled foul…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 12:38 PM CST up reply actions
Well I could have gone with the
Dusty Baker “clogging the basepaths” bit, but I decided to go for the “Rich Harden High-Risk High-Reward” joke instead.
Or I could have told you that, believe it or not, there are better stats than “number of Home Runs” to determine how well and offense will do.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 18, 2009 12:42 PM CST up reply actions
I know there are
you guys spout them off constantly. In the end though, someone has to actually drive in the runs. Right now, I don’t see a bunch of big time run producers in that lineup to scare me. If you feel differently, that is fine. If you want to keep addressing people on your soapbox with comments like believe it or not, that is also fine. I am well aware of the immense genius that is present on this site. Us little folks are just trying to find our place in the world with all you baseball stat head braniacs…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
Well
we shall see. That’s the beauty of this game. We have 162 games to find out. Not a bunch of calculators and projections.
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 1:44 PM CST up reply actions
im gonna take his side here actually
name one good offense that doesnt have a little pop in the middle of the order
Fuck Mike Estabrook
At least not in that ballpark
Bradley can get you 20 but that park is a cavern
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I can see our spacious outfield being a doubles haven for him.
by EnglishMariner on Dec 18, 2009 2:50 PM CST up reply actions
How many games are you thinking
he’ll actually end up playing this season?
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 2:51 PM CST up reply actions
He was mainly a DH when he was playing here
and had barely 30 more PAs than he had last year.
Don’t get me wrong. I think this is a hell of a deal for the M’s.
On a much happier note...
…Avatar in 3D is an absolute must-see as far as a movie theater experience goes. Coolest thing I’ve seen in a long, long time.
"Congrats Rangers fans, you just found your replacement for Mark Teixeira. Just a crazy, crazy steal." -Goldstein
Decent plot?
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Dec 18, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
Supposedly...
it was better the first time, when it was called Apocalypse Now, and the second time, when it was called Dances With Wolves, and the third time…
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
I mean
Obviously I know what you’re talking about, but Dances and Last Samurai are more directly on point.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
You don't think...
that when you mention a “going native” plot, Apocalypse Now isn’t one of the first things you think of?
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
Not really
I mean, like I said, I understand the inclusion—they’re all about the price of expansionism—but I don’t think Kurtz belongs with the Costner, Cruise, or Avatar guy group.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 10:39 PM CST up reply actions
im definitely gonna agree with brett
at its core there might be similarities in the big picture, but those movies dont convey anything else in remotely the same way
Fuck Mike Estabrook
Apocalypse Now, maybe...
but Dances With Wolves, Last Samurai, and Avatar are EXACTLY THE SAME MOVIE. Exactly.
It’s practically cut and paste Hollywood.
by ghostofErikThompson on Dec 19, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
wasn't the first time
called Heart of Darkness?
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
Dances with Wolves and the Last of the Samurai were virtually the same movie...
so you could probably through Avatar in with that.
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
Plot is ok
The way it looks visually, you’d basically follow any plot that went with it
"Congrats Rangers fans, you just found your replacement for Mark Teixeira. Just a crazy, crazy steal." -Goldstein
Yeah
I’m going to see it in 3D because, as I believe DShep said, it’s something you just can’t do at home.
I’m not expecting to enjoy the actual movie though. Same thing with Up in the Air, which I will also watch with a bias.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
What's your bias with Up in the Air?
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Dec 18, 2009 12:52 PM CST up reply actions
I dunno
The buzz is annoying me, cause it doesn’t even sound interesting. Mostly, though, I guess it’s my feelings about Jason Reitman—I really disliked Thank You for Smoking, and although I didn’t mind Juno at first, I’ve come to also really dislike it upon subsequent viewings.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions
I guess I just don't get it.
Seemed like satire in search of a target.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 3:54 PM CST up reply actions
Wasn't a big fan of either Juno or TYFS, either
But i’m looking forward to Up in the Air. I have a soft spot for Clooney
twss
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions
Loved Thank You For Smoking....
fucking HATED Juno, although I put that more on the script than any directorial decisions.
Yeah
That Diablo Cody shit was annoying too.
I’m also basing this irrationality on interviews I’ve heard with Reitman, in which he comes off like a spoiled, arrogant little shit.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
Yes...
anyone that takes a flight to a city for a slice of pizza just to maintain their flight club status with an airline, such as Reitman claims to have done, is a complete prick.
by ghostofErikThompson on Dec 18, 2009 5:38 PM CST up reply actions
I've never seen anything with the post-red/blue glasses 3d.
So i really don’t know what to expect out of the effect.
the preceding post was a great success.
I saw Coraline with the 3D shades
Not bad, but it really dims the colors to me.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
I guess it’s cool and all, but I start getting a headache after a certain point.
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 1:24 PM CST up reply actions
Me too.
And it’s weird cause it only started after about an hour. I had to take them off for a few minutes.
by brettgardner on Dec 18, 2009 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
It's ridiculous awesome
I saw Coraline in RealD-3D in the theaters and it looked incredible, very colorful and vibrant. I bought the DVD with the Red/Cyan lenses and it was terrible, the color was awful and at points looked black and white; I ended up just putting up with the distortion and watching it without the glasses on
"The pitcher has got only a ball. I've got a bat. So the percentage of weapons is in my favor..." Hank Aaron
I saw a Christmas Carol
It’s totally a gimmick but it’s a fun gimmick
by vfn on Dec 18, 2009 9:47 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING
LET UP, CRUEL WORLD!!!
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
by clark on Dec 18, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
arn't you supposed to do well in japan to get interest back?
Botts and Loe were quite bad.
the preceding post was a great success.
From what I remembered
Loe got the equivalent of about $2 million / year there. With currency appreciation of the yen and everything, I’d say he made quite a bit of money.
cost of living in JP is pretty high
He was paid better than he would have been here, but $2MM don’t go as far as they do here
I feel like calling "unfair"...
and just saying to the Mariners FO “Come on man.. we’ve been waiting to make the playoffs for quite a while. We finally feel like we can do it, and NOW you decide you want to go instead of us? Assholes.”
Screw it. No excuses.
MY needs to hit better than a .655 OPS with RISP.
Hammy needs to get his shit together and be consistent.
Davis needs to own his spot in the lineup.
The catchers gotta quit being sure outs.
Kinsler’s gotta stop with the uppercut swings.
The young pitchers need to cowboy up and get suckers out.
The pen needs to keep on keepin’ on.
Wash needs to quit effin’ with Cruz.
Harden needs to be better than Millwood.
Some youngster needs to emerge and deliver.
Chuck needs to pay to fill the cracks at the trade deadline.
Screw the Angels. Screw the Mariners. Screw can’t-do.
by shroomer on Dec 18, 2009 12:46 PM CST up reply actions 8 recs
hahahah
greatness
Must kill Moe. Weeeeeeeee
by Baseball North on Dec 18, 2009 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
forget it, he’s on a roll.
don’t worry, Im pre law. I thought you were pre med. same thing.
keep on rockin' in the free world !
Most of these are about people quitting certain things.
The season hasn’t started yet. Give ’em a chance.
What is it about people names "Jack"
and their ability to kick ass? Jack Bauer. Jack Shepherd, and now Jack Z.
Jon Daniels could have gone by Jack, I guess. But he clearly chose not to….I guess Jack Daniels would have been hard to take seriously.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
by clark on Dec 18, 2009 12:33 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Jack from the Jack in the Box restaurants
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 18, 2009 1:32 PM CST up reply actions
Simple Jack
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 1:36 PM CST up reply actions
simple jack on VHS?
"More than likely JW never played sports above the youth level. It amazes me that he seems to have no concept on the common reactions of an adult athlete or their normal interactions between each other." - laxonto
by Michael Cave on Dec 18, 2009 1:39 PM CST up reply actions
You are correct sir
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 3:02 PM CST up reply actions
Jack Shephard
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
wow, that is a very good point
my son will be named jack now
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
when
have these big offseason moves ever worked out for the m’s?
When they fired Bill Bavasi...
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 18, 2009 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
Figgins, Ichiro, Bradley...
I’m assuming whoever their cleanup hitter is will have plenty of Grand Slam chances in the first inning.
I read $9 million
So basically the M’s are going to pay bradley $15 million a year for the next two
all of a sudden
that deal is a little less sexy. Bradley is a fine player but far from a $15M a year player on the reg.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
its 6 million over 2 years above what they were going to be paying with silva.
Bradley is easily that much of an upgrade over silva’s value.
the preceding post was a great success.
One caveat
They pay the $9 million immediately, which means they won’t have as much money to spend this offseason. Essentially, they are paying $6 million for him this year, and nothing for him next year.
still they are going to pay $30 million over two years for Bradley
its doesnt matter who they got rid of. Imagine if the Rangers had an even more broken down, less productive and more expensive version of blalock for two more years and then imagine trading him for bradley and then sending an additional $9 million on top of that and then tell me how happy would you be as a fan base.
I unloaded a Silva
in the employee restroom after lunch. I hope the next people in there are congested…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 1:05 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You unloaded a Silva?
You should see your doctor immediately
Taking the Browns to the Super Bowl
is and always will be the ultimate pooping analogy
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Growing a monkey tail
"Support the Dutch Oven"
by RangerFloppy on Dec 18, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions
Are the Ms really better?
Will Lee pitch better than Washburn did last year? If so, it won’t be by much. Washburn was great until he was traded. Will Figgins be better than Beltre? Probably, but not by a lot. So now the question is how much better will Bradley be than Branyan?
We are not comparing to last year though
If you look just at the pure talent level, they are now a 86-87 win team with Bradley (provided he is healthy, of course). Whereas we are a 84-85 win team. This division is tight, any small thing that can improve the odds for you team can mean a lot next season.
??
So the’re 1-2 games better than they were last year? I agree with that. But how have the Rangers lost 4 wins from last year?
Do you think Scott Feldman is going to be anywhere as good as last year?
I hope so, but I’m not planning on it. Then again, if Chris Davis hits, and Josh Hamilton hits.. this team makes up for that. I don’t know.. We could go either way very quickly.
yea, I mean, Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis, even Elvis, Nellie (with consistent pt), hopefully the Cs, and anyone who we put at DH should be better this next year
also, Derek Holland was much better than his final ERA, he’s gonna be alot better this year, I think we have a better SP talent wise by a good bit going into next year.
We’ll see, I think their will be a lot of variance in our team going into next year. Anywhere from a .500 team to a team that wins over 90 games is a possibility as our roster is now.
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
I don't think it matters...
I tend to think the Angels and Rangers both overachieved last season. The Mariners are much better than they were last year.
If you ask
Ms fans, they will tell you they greatly overachieved last year too.
yea, and they did, or looking at their everyday lineup, I think you have to say they did.
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
Good point, but to me it's a question of repeatability.
Lee is much more likely to repeat his level of production than Washburn is. Figgins, in Safeco and with the way that Beltre’s going, is more likely to repeat his level of production than Beltre. Same with Bradley & Russell the Muscle.
The question...
is will Lee be better than Bedard AND Washburn were for the M’s last year. Together they threw 216 innings with a 2.71 ERA.
Can Lee do that?
"Will Lee pitch better than Washburn did last year?"
Seriously? Washburn had a 99 tRA+ with Seattle last year. 2004 and 2007 are the only years Lee has been below 100 in his entire career.
By tRA, Washburn was worth a little less than a run BELOW average with Seattle last year, and about 15 runs below average all season. Lee was close to 33 runs above average, 20.5 before being traded. 49.2 the year before that.
Yes, Lee will probably be significantly better.
I think you are confusing predictive stats and actual return.
In overall run prevention value Washburn was phenomenal. His tRA+ tells you that he will most likely not have been able to reproduce those numbers. It doesn’t wipe out the fact that last year’s output actually happened.
There is a reason why Runs allowed and ERA still have great value in the stats side of things.
Lee has a much higher likelihood of providing comparable numbers, but it is unlikely that he will provide less Runs Allowed per IP than Washburn and Bedard did in tandem. Lee’s tRA tell you that there is a much great probability to be a very good pitcher, and therefore reduce the likelihood of regression in the overall runs allowed due to the pitching staff.
People keep using stats that help determine the likelihood of future performance and basing them off of a historical context.
Most likely Lee will not be significantly better next year compared to those two’s output from last year.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Well said
Philkid3, not sure how you confuse next year with last but thanks to laxtonto for clearing that up. Ms won 85 games last year with Washburn pitching as well as Lee is expected to pitch this year. I wasn’t implying that Washburn is better than Lee.
No, Washburn did not pitch as well as Lee should be expected to.
If you put Lee’s same performance in front of that defense in Safe Co field, you get fewer runs scored in games he pitches than Washburn. Pretty sure you’re the one who’s confused.
Lee, almost every year of his career, has been better than Washburn was with the Mariners in 2009.
sure, but do you think that lee will have as good an era as Washburn did last year?
I mean, yes, your stats are actually how he pitched, but the results for Washburn were about as good as anyone could ever possibly hope the results for Lee will be next year.
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
If the ballpark and defense stay the same:
Yes.
Though Washburn’s BABIP was pretty low, and that’s not something that could be expected to transfer to Lee. But then Lee had a .322 in Cleveland last year, so that should actually improve.
To actually give you more of a response.
I think you are confusing predictive stats and actual return.
I don’t think I am. I think you’re confusing tRA as a predictive stat (though it does have predictive qualities). It is, instead, a stat that tries to look at how good a pitcher’s actual performance was, regardless of how good the defense he pitches in front of is, how lucky/unlucky he was and, in this instance, the ballpark he pitches in.
In overall run prevention value Washburn was phenomenal.
No, Washburn AND HIS TEAM were. There’s good evidence that Washburn was merely average. FIP has him a bit better than that, but that’s before park adjustment and it’s still not phenominal.
His tRA+ tells you that he will most likely not have been able to reproduce those numbers.
No, it tells you what his numbers would probably have been in front of a neutral defense with neutral luck in a neutral ballpark. If the fielding, luck and defense all stay the same, tRA (or, more accurately, tRA*) would suggest he WOULD reproduce his ERA.
There is a reason why Runs allowed and ERA still have great value in the stats side of things.
To who and what is that reason? ERA is not terrible as an easy to understand stat, but that doesn’t make it more telling than something that’s less defensively independant.
it is unlikely that he will provide less Runs Allowed per IP than Washburn and Bedard did in tandem.
Why, and you never said anything about Bedard.
Lee’s tRA tell you that there is a much great probability to be a very good pitcher, and therefore reduce the likelihood of regression in the overall runs allowed due to the pitching staff.
I think you’re thinking of tRA*, which is an attempt to better measure “true talent.” Lee’s tRA is telling you his performance neutral of the things he cannot control within his environment.
People keep using stats that help determine the likelihood of future performance and basing them off of a historical context
.
TRA has some value for prediction, but no, it’s based on historical context. It is a performance stat. I’m not sure why you think it’s not.
Most likely Lee will not be significantly better next year compared to those two’s output from last year.
Both of them I’m not sure. I’d have to look at them more, but Washburn has been discussed a lot so he’s a more familiar case. But, you didn’t bring up Bedard before, so my point remains: yes, Lee will likely be significantly better than Washburn’s part season as a Mariner in 2009.
Footnote
Being not unfamiliar with you as a poster, I think of you as a bright guy, so any of this that comes off as angry, insulting or condescending is an unintentional side effect of the internet.
Can you go talk to Esteban Grande now?
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I think you're missing the poster's original point with that line
Think of it this way:
Are the Mariners preventing more runs in the innings that Lee pitches over the innings that Wasburned pitched last season.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Again, if the defense stays the same, I'll bet so.
Though I do doubt Lee will have the flukey BABIP that Washburn did, but i’ll bet it’s better than he had in 2009.
And as far as flukes, I'm not sure the Mariners will win more games next year than last year.
A whole lot of things could go wrong for them, including simple regression. But I will bet they won’t lose more games because Cliff Lee is worse in 2010 than Jarrod Washburn was in 2009.
I wouldn't think Lee in Washburn's place will hurt the Mariners
But Jarrod Washburn gave the Mariners a 2.64 ERA in 133 IP. Cliff Lee’s in the AL last season had a 3.14 ERA in 152 IP. And that might have even been a bit lucky since his FIP was a bit higher than that and his tRA and xFIP were both just shy of 4.00.
Unless Lee is able to pitch like he did in 08, I don’t see Lee giving the Mariners what Washburn did. It probably will even out since Washburn+whoever took his place post trade was not as good as just Washburn, but I think that’s the best case scenario.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Whatever then...
what youre saying at this point is that Cliff Lee will have possibly the best ERA in the AL….ok whatever man
youre ignoring the fact that despite Washburns averageness…he simply didnt allow runs which is all that is being analyzed in this discussion
essentially, youre saying that Lee will be as good as Greinke and Hernandez…which is crap
Fuck Mike Estabrook
good move for the M's
bad move for the Rangers.
The M’s still have money to spend as well. I hate my life as a Ranger fan sometimes.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Yep, this is bad.
My argument last week was that the M’s were putting all their eggs in one basket with the Lee trade, and that they still didn’t have offense. Now with Ichiro and Bradley, they’ve got some guys who can really get on base. Z’s really making it happen for them this year…
One big question
Will Bradley be their DH or will they ask him to play in the field?
If he’s a DH, I’m worried. If’s he’s a COF then I know he’ll miss 50-60 games and his impact will be greatly diminished.
Be careful....to a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
it is all about the injuries with him
but he’ll also feel welcome and wanted (which is almost as important to this head case) – that’ll help in keeping him off the DL
I'm fucking sick of having to stay patient
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
I want to go on record
right here, right now, so later I can say I told you so.
Board Game finishes 2010 with less than 50 hits, a OBP below .300, and one fight with a teammate.
I will refer to this later… ;-)
"we’re a bunch of knee-jerking yahoos who like new and shiny things." -- FirebatM3 July 10, 2009
Wow
hope you’re right…but 50 hits?
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 1:45 PM CST up reply actions
While we are all riled up and upset
Halos Heaven is the complete opposite. They are celebrating the trade and taking bets on who the first Mariner Bradley punches out will be. One guy refered to Seattle as the whitest city in America and can’t imagine Bradley making it through a whole year there…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 1:47 PM CST up reply actions
This
"we’re a bunch of knee-jerking yahoos who like new and shiny things." -- FirebatM3 July 10, 2009
Oh it is too
Lilly white.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
The whitest city in America huh?
never heard that, but I guess it could be true. How exactly does that pertain to him playing baseball there I wonder?
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions
I think we are all aware
Milton needs to feel very comfortable and wanted to perform well and succeed. If he is constantly looking over his shoulder worrying about how the Kurt Cobain look alikes in their flannel tops are judging him, maybe he becomes paranoid and loses it again. Remember how bad his feelings were hurt because the Cubs fans were booing him. If they boo him in Seattle and he feels like a token minority in that town, he might shut it down. Very much conspiracy theory there, but worth a shot…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That would be amazing
if this pans out as so. It’s really our only hope.
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 2:33 PM CST up reply actions
heh
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 2:33 PM CST up reply actions
I think the blowup
happens early. Plus the inevitable injuries. Frankly, I believe everyone here will be talking next year about how happy they are that the Rangers didn’t trade for Bradley…
"we’re a bunch of knee-jerking yahoos who like new and shiny things." -- FirebatM3 July 10, 2009
I can't wait
for the first time he gets benched in favor of Griffey and throws a hissy fit. The whole town will turn on him if he says anything negative about Griffey
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 18, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
50 hits is the believable part
that could happen via injuries.
but his obp is not going to be below 300. it just isnt.
the preceding post was a great success.
Good point
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not worried
the Angels are the team with the target on their back…we just have to take care of what we can take care of.
Offense: outside of Ichiro, Bradley and Figgins, I’m not really impressed yet. I think we easily match those three alone with Young, Hamilton, Cruz…and that’s not even taking Kinsler’s bat into account. I think our offense will rebound and be much better than theirs.
Pitching/Defense: they have the better 1/2 punch, but if Harden stays healthy, and Feldman keeps it alive, we can match their production from 1 to 5. I’m a bit worried about Snell catching fire, but I think our bullpen will hold up better than theirs, coughing up a few of Felix/Lee’s outings. Plus, we own Cliff Lee.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
That is how I see it
We own Lee. Lee in the AL is meh. I doubt he matches Washburn. MB will blow up. He’s paid and got nothing to prove. If he decides to focus though, I’m afraid he might go on a tear.
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
Lee has alot to prove
he’s playing for a contract next year. Also, he is going to the best defense in baseball, so I think he can repeat those numbers the M’s got last year. The real question is ‘does this make them better?’ Yes it does.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
You think Lee..
will pitch 216 IP with a 2.71 ERA?
Cause if not, then he is a downgrade from last year’s #2 spot.
most likely he won't be that good
but the difference is negligible. I understand your point, but the M’s are a better team with these additions, and their defense makes pitchers better.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
A better team...
than when they started the offseason, but perhaps not a better team than last year.
Still skeptical on them and that lousy offense.
I think there's actually a good chance
that Lee will post King Felix type numbers….
Over the past 2 years Lee has pitched 223 and 232 IP at a FIP of 2.83 and 3.11.
For comparison, King Felix has pitched 200 and 238 IP at a FIP of 3.80 and 3.09.
So, yes, it’s quite possible that Lee will be BETTER than the 2.71 ERA and 216 IP they got last year from the #2 spot.
This, of course, is dependent on their defense staying at their league leading level…. But they haven’t degraded anywhere defensively except MAYBE slightly from Beltre to Figgins….
And there might be regression, but it’s not like they’re changing their defense wholesale….
R
it's a stout one two punch
but I love the fact that they don’t have either of those guys signed long term at this point, and both guys want Sabathia money and Sabathia years.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
hopefully they lose both of those guys next year
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
yea, he won the Cy Young and has put up great, great indicator stats in the AL
and now he gets to pitch in likely one of the best pitcher parks in the LG… Im not so worried about facing him in ARL where we have owned him, but overall, he should be great for the M’s
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
They had a couple young kids last year
in Doug Fister and Ryan Rowland-Smith. Other than that, they have Ian Snell. I’m not sure who else
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Luke French...heh
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
with last names like
French and Fister, I think they’re gonna be all right.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
Yes the Mariners are better
But the Mariners were an 85 win team last season with a Pythagorean of 75 wins though an 83 win team by third order wins. Still, I think its pretty fair to say that they had a lot of things go right last season and were due for some major regression this year. The moves they’ve made this offseason before the Bradley trade haven’t been doing much to help the team improve over last year’s record but IMO, they have been fighting off the regression that they were going to see. Washburn gave them 133 innings with a 2.64 ERA, Bedard was at 83 IP with a 2.82 ERA, and even Ian Snell had a 4.20 ERA over 64 IP.
I think when you look at what the team did last season and where the actual improvements can be seen in terms of runs scored and runs prevented, the Mariners shouldn’t expect too much from next season. Bradley is the only piece they’ve added where I think there will actually be a difference being made in the bottom line. I still don’t see how the Mariners are going to be the team to beat next year.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Yeah, as much as I'm doom and gloom, I don't think the Mariners are definitively better going in to the year than we are.
What’s upsetting, and where I agree with Adam, is that they’re getting to go around and spend money to fight off regression and potentially improve, while we can’t really.
I do think we could be a lot better than last year and win the division without changing a thing just by things like young players progressing and hitters like Kinsler, Hamilton and Davis not being so putrid. Of course, we could also be a lot worse, there’s some potential for wild variance.
By "third best team" I think you mean from top to bottom: M's, A's, Rangers, Angels.
Am I wrong?
This sucks. This would be a great year for another Christmas surprise from JD.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Sean Bass never needs to speak baseball again
Gawd he is atrocious.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
Doesn't he do Rangers Live after each home game?
Can’t remember if that’s him.
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
The mariners are starting to scare the crap outta me
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
from LL
Stupid, stupid trade.
by Carlos_Silva_Fan on Dec 18, 2009 12:43 PM CST reply actions 6 recs
Heh
perhaps the funniest thing i've read on here today
After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL
WOW!
And 6 recs and counting. They can’t be serious.
Give me team chemistry and emotion over stats any day. Do you think 34,000 Ranger fans were screaming their asses off over Pudge and his .275 OBP?
Branyan
Damn I didn’t realize how bad he was in the second half.
by kumizi on Dec 18, 2009 3:07 PM CST via mobile reply actions
he was also hurt in the second half
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
i just posted something
on the “we dont like josey” fanpost and would like your thoughts
You already have 1 response.
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 18, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
Seattle
Well….
Figgins replaces Beltre. I’d rather have Beltre next season.
Harden has the potential to be a good, or better, than Cliff Lee.
Bradley is good, but he’ll only play 120 or games, and we have much more potential for internal improvement on offense than Seattle.
I don’t disagree that Seattle has had a better offseason than the Rangers, but I’m not ready to say that they are better than Texas right now.
hes managed that twice in his career
but thats cool, dont count the baggage he brings or the fact that he is flat out fuckin insane and lazy
Fuck Mike Estabrook
Fuck.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
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