BA's Rule 5 Preview

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 2, 2009 8:51 PM CST Comment 19 comments

In the subscriber section of BA, John Manuel has a Rule 5 preview up. This year's Rule 5 draft occurs a week from tomorrow, and Manuel offers scouting reports on 10 players who are potential selections, including Ranger prospect Chad Tracy. There are also 10 "other guys to watch" that Manuel just lists, which includes Ranger pitcher Brennan Garr, whose big right arm could entice someone to take a flyer on him.

Of the other guys listed, the most intriguing to me is Michael McBryde, a righthanded "tools" guy who put up a .295/.333/.410 line splitting time between AA and AAA, with 22 steals in 34 attempts. Total Zone has him at at least 20 runs above average (per 150 games) in centerfield in two of his four minor league seasons, including 2009, when he was +21 in AA.

Last year was, if not a "breakout" season, at least McBryde's best offensive year, and CHONE has him projected at .259/.300/.359 for 2010. If McBryde can provide plus defense and speed while putting up that sort of line -- and BA says that he's a 70 runner, with some scouts also grading him at 70 on defense and with his arm -- then he would seem to potentially have some value for the Rangers, since he would give the Rangers a righthanded hitter to spell Julio Borbon in center occasionally (assuming Borbon-in-CF is Plan A), along with someone who provides late inning defense and pinch running skills.

If Borbon is going to be the starting centerfielder, you probably need to have someone on the 25 man roster besides Josh Hamilton who is a viable defensive centerfielder. CHONE's projection has McBryde as -27 runs per 150 offensively for a centerfielder, but if he's above average defensively -- even just +10 runs defensively in CF per 150 -- then he's got some value as the 25th man who can give you 15 starts in centerfield against tough lefties that Borbon would sit against and a pinch running option late in games.

Anyway, the Rangers will probably select someone no one here has heard of, but with three open 40 man roster spots, a couple of guys in particular who seemed to be clinging to their 40 man spot by a thread recently, and little chance of signing a bunch of major league free agents, I would be surprised if the Rangers just passed on the Rule 5 Draft altogether.

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Meh

Is he really any better than Gentry? I don’t really think so.

"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.

by Kinslerhomer on Dec 2, 2009 8:53 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

Don't we already have a guy like that in Greg Golson?

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

by lonestarJon on Dec 2, 2009 8:57 PM CST reply actions

So McBryde is Shed v2.0?

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

by Ryin A on Dec 2, 2009 8:58 PM CST reply actions

pretty much

"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland

by DJCahill on Dec 3, 2009 4:58 AM CST up reply actions

Wait a minute...

It just hit me. This whole post is a giant Burn Notice inside joke, isn’t it.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

by lonestarJon on Dec 2, 2009 9:05 PM CST reply actions

Looking at his numbers, it looks nothing like a "breakout" year

IF anything, his 2nd minor league season seems to be an “outlier” while his other 3 years were very similar. He actually had a higher OPS in 2008, and a wOBA ranging from .349 to .354 minus the “outlier”

by tyd3311 on Dec 2, 2009 9:07 PM CST reply actions

What are Borbon's splits against lefties in the minors

I just don’t get benching a guy that makes good contact, and can get on with his speed alone. I suppose it may be just resting him, but I’m not a fan of quickly pigeon-holing hitters as platoon players. I know you may not be doing that etc, but the fact that he didn’t play much against lefties when he reached the bigs last year, I don’t want to give more reason for Wash to build stupid lineups.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Dec 2, 2009 10:50 PM CST reply actions

Borbon has been significantly weaker against lefties in the minors

.268/.333/.342 career and .265/.343/.315 in Oklahoma this year. If you want to maximize his value at the plate, keeping him away from left-handed pitching is probably a good idea.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS

by lonestarJon on Dec 2, 2009 11:09 PM CST up reply actions

I'm not saying bench him against lefties

But if you are going to sit Borbon 20 times in 2010 — which isn’t unreasonable — it makes sense try to coordinate as many of those 20 days off as possible with lefty starters.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 2, 2009 11:14 PM CST up reply actions

agreed

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Dec 3, 2009 8:40 AM CST up reply actions

Yep.

If Borbon is going to be the starting centerfielder, you probably need to have someone on the 25 man roster besides Josh Hamilton who is a viable defensive centerfielder.

Some people around here still don’t understand this.

I could see the team going with a McBryde type to compete with Boggs for a roster spot (assuming the team is comfortable with Boggs in CF).

by cstorm15 on Dec 2, 2009 11:06 PM CST reply actions

Meh on McBryde...

the Rangers already has Boggs, Golson, and Gentry. I don’t think McBryde would provide anything that any of those three guys can’t give the Rangers already.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Dec 2, 2009 11:51 PM CST up reply actions