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Around SBN: The End Of Sabanball: Details, Barbarians, And Precision

Thinking About Billy Butler

In response to a comment in this morning's post, I said that I'd be willing to trade any three Ranger minor leaguers who are trade-eligible right now, other than Justin Smoak and Martin Perez, for the Royals' Billy Butler, who would immediately step in and be the team's #5 hitter and everyday DH.

Then I stepped back and thought about it...would I really be willing to see, say, Robbie Ross, Wilmer Font, and Engel Beltre go to Kansas City for Butler? 

And the answer for me, after some thought, was still "yes."

But I thought it would be a worthwhile poll question, so cast your vote below...

Poll
Would you trade any three Ranger minor leaguers who are currently eligible to be traded (i.e., can't include 2009 draftees) other than Martin Perez and Justin Smoak for the Royals' Billy Butler?
Definitely yes
109 votes
Tough call, but yes
209 votes
Tough call, but no
174 votes
Definitely no
138 votes

630 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 262 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I doubt the royals do that trade though

The only other prospect i wouldn’t want traded is Main, considering we’d be selling low on him.

baseBALLIN!

by kevzta on Dec 20, 2009 6:29 PM CST reply actions  

I guess I just dont know that much on Butler,

so I voted no. He hasnt tapped into his full potential though has he?

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 6:31 PM CST reply actions  

Meh...

it’s not like Kaufman stadium is a launching pad.

I don’t think he’s played long enough to worry about his home v. road #’s quite yet.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Dec 21, 2009 9:45 AM CST up reply actions  

So, IOW

You are almost asking KC to trade their Smoak. Put the shoe on the other foot and see how it fits.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 6:34 PM CST reply actions  

That's good point

But this is Dayton Moore we’re talking about.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 6:48 PM CST up reply actions  

a 240 lb man named Billy Ray Butler should be a Texas Ranger

4 years of club control, age 24-27 seasons, yeah, I’d do it.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 6:36 PM CST reply actions  

If we offered the Royals any three prospects (excluding Smoak, Perez, and Schepp)

and they chose Engel Beltre as one of the three, I’d be really stoked.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 6:44 PM CST reply actions  

Yah, that's pretty much gotta be one of the pitchers, right?

Most likely Main or possibly Kiker or Beavan.

I could see a team favoring Moreland or Beltre though.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

"You like Castlevania, don't you?" -Psycho Mantis.

by thedirkatron on Dec 20, 2009 8:50 PM CST up reply actions  

If they chose Kiker or Beavan over Font or Main, I'd be excited.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Dec 20, 2009 9:02 PM CST up reply actions  

I think the Rangers should deal Kiker while his value has peaked.

I don’t see what role he could fill on the ML squad in the next couple of years.

I think they could capitalize on some hype because of his youth, k/9 in AA, and grittiness, or whatever.

"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris

by inactive lsb user on Dec 21, 2009 9:58 AM CST up reply actions  

i like the idea

if we can get some real impact.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Dec 21, 2009 10:37 AM CST up reply actions  

For Ross, Font and Beltre?

All day long. I wouldn’t trade any of the big four, but for that package, sure.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 6:46 PM CST reply actions  

for main, ross and moreland....

…i dunno… not saying no, but not over-excited.

"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...

by ivysafety39 on Dec 20, 2009 6:52 PM CST reply actions  

Realistically

When you trade for a good player, the price is going to hurt.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 6:54 PM CST up reply actions  

This is something

too many forget. It is ridiculous to expect to “win” a trade except in hindsight.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Dec 21, 2009 7:44 AM CST up reply actions  

would they take

just smoke and a guy in low a?

by ENDLESS on Dec 20, 2009 6:55 PM CST reply actions  

Why the hell would you want to trade Smoak?

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 6:56 PM CST up reply actions  

he's just a prospect at this point, who struggled in AAA

i think its 50 50 he ever puts up numbers as good as butler did last year.

by ENDLESS on Dec 20, 2009 6:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Ugh.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:01 PM CST up reply actions  

Question

What do you think the chances are Smoak puts up numbers as good as Butler’s 2009 line?

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:03 PM CST up reply actions  

In his first year or...

in his third year like Butler did?

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:07 PM CST up reply actions  

that's a good question

maybe baseball Jesus should take a look at Alex Gordon’s career before answering.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:07 PM CST up reply actions  

...

interesting read on Gordon v. Butler.

by BHill on Dec 20, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions  

This year or in the future?

Cause in the future, I definitely expect him to be able to wOBA .369. Probably more.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:08 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Smoak puts up better numbers than Butler

Over his career. JMO

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:09 PM CST up reply actions  

what makes you say that?

Butler’s minor league career: .336 / .416 / .561
Smoak’s minor league career: .292 / .403 / .452

And Butler was quite a bit younger at each level compared to Smoak.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:14 PM CST up reply actions  

That emperical evidence should

Kill this argument, excepting the huge Homers.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Bob Hamelin and Ron Kittle had big numbers as well….

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:23 PM CST up reply actions  

help me understand what you are trying to say

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm just saying numbers don't tell the whole story

I think Smoak will be the better hitter.

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Ok, can you explain why you feel that way?

because he’s a Ranger?

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:26 PM CST up reply actions  

No not because he is a Ranger

I look at it this way if he had signed out of HS like Butler did and worked his way through the minors with the coaching Butler got he would already be in the majors like Butler.

Why do you think Butler will be the better hitter? Because he has a better slash line right in the minors than Smoak?

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Butler will be a better hitter

because he has displayed better plate discipline and shown more power than Smoak at every single level, despite being younger at each stop.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Good for you tricer

I disagree. Now why don’t we let the healing begin?

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions  

i don't see why you are getting upset

he asked you to support your opinion and you didn’t really do it at all

by ab03 on Dec 20, 2009 7:42 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not upset at all

And I might not have numbes on my side I just feel like Smoak will be the better hitter over the course of their career that is all.

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Sure I see that

I just saw all the hype about him when he was drafted and I think he will get better that is all. I don’t care if he was a Rangers or not I still think he will be better than Butler.

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Kinda makes you go "Hmm" doesn't it?

Many are seeing Smoak as the panacea…but compare his numbers to Butler.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:38 PM CST up reply actions  

things that make you go Hmmmm!

a little C and C music factory Rodney.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I actually saw them in concert, way back when

Chick-driven, please forgive me.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Ha thats funny,

I didnt even know they did a tour.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I look at it this way

If Davis doesn’t return to form the Rangers are going to need a 1b that can play D he doesn’t have to hit for a shit ton. Billy Butler really doesn’t play all that good D. What if Smoak is like A. Gonzalez and finds his stroke in a few years?

I guess I would do the trade if you can be certain that Davis would hit like he did his first year then yeah trade for Butler and plug him into the DH spot.

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Butler had insane minor league numbers....

that he hasn’t lived up to yet, not that he’s not a good hitter or anything.

Compare Smoaks numbers to AGons and it looks like we have a pretty good player on our hands.

by groundingout on Dec 20, 2009 10:44 PM CST up reply actions  

For realz?

I am in a state of flabbergast…

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 21, 2009 1:08 AM CST up reply actions  

Ha

Just sayin you can’t just compare milb numbers

by groundingout on Dec 21, 2009 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

Just saying they had good minor league numbers

but didn’t have great major league careers. So Butler had better numbers than Smoak in the minors but it doesn’t mean he will hit better than Smoak will.

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:27 PM CST up reply actions  

it's a pretty good indicator

What should we use to make these type of comparisons instead? Who looks better in jeans?

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:28 PM CST up reply actions  

So Butler had better numbers than Smoak in the minors but it doesn’t mean he will hit better than Smoak will.

You should say that to someone else, out loud…and see if they giggle when you do.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Rodney...

So Butler had better numbers than Smoak in the minors but it doesn’t mean he will hit better than Smoak will.

Giggling yet?

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:31 PM CST up reply actions  

lol

You know me, always up for a good laugh :)

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Glad I could help you out toinight. lol

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Butler's 10 most comparables thru age 23

Kent Hrbek
John Olerud
Keith Hernandez
George Scott
Jim Rice
Greg Luzinski
Gary Matthews
Ellis Valentine
Carlos May
Bruce Campbell

Kittle’s 10 most comparables thru age 26 (his third year)

Rob Deer
Russ Branyan
Dan Pasqua
Jonny Gomes
Jay Buhner
Don Lock
Phil Plantier
Jay Gibbons
Don Mincher
Carlos Pena

The age thing is pretty huge.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 8:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Like Boomer said, I expect him to be better than Butler.

He might not do any better power-wise than what Butler did this year, but I expect Smoak to get on base more.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, what percentage?

90% chance Smoak will be better than Butler was last year?

95% chance? 75%? 99%?

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know.

I’m not gonna throw some random percentage out there.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions  

why do you expect that?

Butler had superior OBP skills in the minor leagues, and he was younger.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, good point

But I’d hope Smoak won’t suffer the same dropoff Butler did in walk rates when he hit the majors. That’s one are where Smoak being older in terms of age at development level could be an advantage, I think. As much as the scouts have raved about his patience, maturity at the dish and control of the strike zone, that’s something I’d expect him to maintain.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I think you have your thought process

100% backwards. Every prospect sees their walk rate drop when they are getting used to MLB, and going through that process at a younger age almost always means you are a better prospect.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:28 PM CST up reply actions  

The one thing that might make Butler better than Smoak though

Is the fact that Butler has never struggled against left-handed pitching (in fact, that’s his strength), where that has clearly been an issue for Smoak.

He has however, struggled against right-handers some in the majors, but considering how young he still is I’d have to give him a pass on that, considering how he improved this year.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Butler has displayed more power as well

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:30 PM CST up reply actions  

True

In the end you can’t deny he was a better hitter in the minors than Smoak has been so far, although you could point out that Smoak’s power kinda got sapped by his injury this year.

I do think that Smoak’s OBP skills will carry over better to the majors, but they’re pretty comparable hitters overall.

I just don’t know that I’d want to trade one for the other given our utter lack of offensive prospects. When we have so much depth in the pitching department to deal from it seems unnecessarily McCarthy-for-Danksian.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions  

One thing that I love to look at

www.hittrackeronline.com

It shows there that Butler has power to all fields which I take as a really good indicator for such a young guy.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Looks even better if you look at

Trip’s pitch f/x.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions  

yeah, I need to bookmark that

Looks like Butler peppers the gaps regularly and like I said above, shows legit power to all fields.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 8:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Yep.

Looking at that really makes me drool.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 8:03 PM CST up reply actions  

One thing to remember...

Smoak has generally graded higher, and Butler lower, because Butler is pretty much a natural DH, and Smoak is considered someone who can be a top-flight defensive 1B.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:31 PM CST up reply actions  

so you would want to trade our top flight potential 1st baseman for a DH?

I just cant understand the logic AJM.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions  

Takes a lot for a first baseman's defense to make him that much more valuable than a DH.

If Smoak actually becomes Butler+good defense, of course it makes sense to keep Smoak. Smoak, however, is a prospect, with defense being 1) pretty difficult to project by scouting and 2) not that valuable at first (relatively). Butler, meanwhile, is a productive Major Leaguer.

So, I see his logic. Doesn’t mean he’s right, but I think it’s pretty apparent.

by philkid3 on Dec 20, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions  

If we're only allowed to list one thing that might make Butler better. . .

. . . I would think it would be the fact that he hit better at a younger age in the minors. I dunno. I don’t think we should limit it to one thing, and I’m not sure Butler is or will be better, I just think that’s relevant.

by philkid3 on Dec 20, 2009 8:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Just a random thought...

It would be pretty crazy if somehow Butler ended up here playing for the same ML club as his high school team mate(Eric Hurley). I wonder if that has ever happend before…

by ramjam36 on Dec 21, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Did Doug Meinqwfjkcvich

Play with the Yanks and ARod? Can’t remember

by groundingout on Dec 21, 2009 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

Why would we do that?

Actually why dont you send that in as a question for TRs mailbag!

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Well

I think there’s an argument for that — I don’t think it would be unreasonable for the Rangers to deal Smoak for Butler.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:08 PM CST up reply actions  

what you cant be serious,

Smoak is apotential big bat that can impact our club by summer or fall of next year. If you trade him you trade him for a TORP or something along that line. Not for Butler.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:14 PM CST up reply actions  

because I think Smoaks first 3 years can and will do better than Butlers

.291 .346 .451 .798 Thats Butlers line for 3 years. Why trade Smoak if he potentially can put up the same numbers or better. It just seems like a dumb trade.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Smoak v. Butler

It makes no sense to try to compare what Smoak will do in his first three years in the majors to what Butler did, because Butler was in the majors at age 21, and Smoak will be 23 when he debuts (assuming he gets called up in 2010).

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:21 PM CST up reply actions  

okay I can understand that,

but at 23 do you think smoak will put up better numbers?

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions  

"I think Smoaks first 3 years can and will do better than Butlers"

Why?

And, more importantly, what evidence makes it so definitive that anyone who thinks otherwise is insane?

by philkid3 on Dec 20, 2009 8:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I dont have numbers Phil just my gut talking here,

To me trading him for butler is wrong. Trade Smoak for someone better, or someone that isnt viewed as just a DH.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 21, 2009 8:23 AM CST up reply actions  

i'd want

more of a track record than one year before I give up a lot. Davis looked pretty damn good in 08, and he was a year younger than Butler.

by BHill on Dec 20, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd do it

But i don’t think KC would

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Dec 20, 2009 7:00 PM CST reply actions  

Yep

We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.

by sprite on Dec 20, 2009 7:03 PM CST reply actions  

Not a chance

Butler has had one good season, and he did it with a BABIP of .335 and a very pedestrian 18.5% LD rate. The Bill James projections, which are nearly always inordinately rosy, predict an OPS of .837. For a guy who’s pretty limited to DH (He’s a very substandard first baseman, per Fangraphs), there’s no way I part with Main-Ross-Font. No way in hell.

by Conjunction on Dec 20, 2009 7:08 PM CST reply actions  

Butler has had one good ML season, but he's only 23 years old

Only 8 months older than Smoak, who has had zero good ML seasons.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:11 PM CST up reply actions  

If Smoak had taken Butlers route

Signed out of HS instead of going to college would he be in the majors right now?

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 7:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Sure he did

We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.

by sprite on Dec 20, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Sickels

Sickels had Butler as the #7 prospect among position players after 2006, the last time he was prospect-eligible.

He was in the BA top 100 3 times — 25, 29, and 75.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:18 PM CST up reply actions  

and where was Smoak this year?

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:20 PM CST up reply actions  

okay so he seems like a better bet to be better than butler,

if not just as good. So why even trade him?

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Why do you think he's a better bet to be better than Butler?

In particular, Butler seems likely to be the better hitter in 2010, and probably 2011. Given that the Rangers are trying to win in 2010, that seems pretty meaningful.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I can't

ignore the defensive impact of Smoak. That’s the only real difference maker over Butler. Is the gap from Smoak’s glove to Butler’s bigger than the gap from Smoak’s bat to Butler’s?

by BHill on Dec 20, 2009 7:34 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know

But if you believe that Chris Davis is going to be your 1B long-term, then the defensive issues aren’t relevant.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree.

And that, to me, is the big question when you ponder a a potential deal for Butler.

by JDT217 on Dec 20, 2009 7:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know about that

but there are also timing issues to consider. The Rangers have been setting things up to be a contender the next three years, so you might have to pay a premium to exchange a prospect for a young MLer that is going to be moving into his prime during those years.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Switch hitter, plus D

Still developing in the minors. Was a huge streal for us in the draft. Top 5 guy that made it to us. You just dont trade that for Butler.

Okay, give me more than AJM that will convince me that this is a smart gamble. Cause I think it will be a huge mistake in the near future.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:35 PM CST up reply actions  

What is your long-term plan at 1B?

You’ve got two young players who project to be very good defensive 1B. They aren’t both going to play there.

If you believe that Chris Davis is going to be a quality major leaguer and your first baseman of the future, then trading Smoak for Butler at this point, with an eye towards being a playoff team in 2010, is very reasonable.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:40 PM CST up reply actions  

You "just don't trade that for Butler" because he was a steal in the draft?

Really? I mean, are you serious? How does that factor at all in the process?

Who is going to be the better player is all that is relevant. That may well be Smoak, I don’t know. What I do know is how valuable a draft pick he was shouldn’t stop us from trading him.

by philkid3 on Dec 20, 2009 8:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Alright.

Where does the additional projection come? What sort of numbers would you expect from Butler in a Ranger uniform?

by Conjunction on Dec 20, 2009 7:21 PM CST up reply actions  

not sure that is correct, or that it matters

Butler terrorized the minor leagues, never struggled at a level like Smoak did at AAA.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:17 PM CST up reply actions  

SSS

Fuck Mike Estabrook

by Horns130 on Dec 20, 2009 7:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Yup yup.

This is a great supporting argument for why we don’t really know.

I feel like someone might want to use it as evidence that Smoak is better, though. . .

by philkid3 on Dec 20, 2009 8:28 PM CST up reply actions  

You two are just asking for Boomer to list 15 minor league studs

that didn’t do a thing in the majors. Scouting reports>milb #s, though normally the better scouting reports the better #s. Butler hasn’t yet lived up to his numbers so I don’t think its fair to say that Butler will be better because his milb #s were better.

by groundingout on Dec 20, 2009 10:54 PM CST up reply actions  

For the record I think Smoak will put up better seasons than...

what Butler did in 09, of course I expect Butler to continue to improve as well. If both were DHs for argument sake and I could have Butler or Smoak for 4 years I would take Butler.

I’m just saying we can’t just look at the minorleague numbers and take that to mean that Butler will be the better hitter (which I think he will be).

by groundingout on Dec 21, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Just a note

And I realize the Bill James projectionns are utter crap, but they’re what’s up on fangraphs right now, heh… That being said, Thome’s projected for an .862 OPS next year.

by Conjunction on Dec 20, 2009 7:11 PM CST up reply actions  

He's also 23 years old

You can take all my arguments before about Chris Davis and put them in with Billy Butler, as well.

Hell, Butler is less than 8 months older than Justin Smoak is. If you are unhappy about him putting up a 724 OPS in the majors at age 22, you must really hate Smoak’s 723 OPS in AAA at age 22.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Heh!

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions  

His career BABiP is .321....

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Dec 20, 2009 8:18 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I voted in the least-populated category...

…but this strikes me as similar to Boston’s decision a year ago as to whether to trade Buchholz to Texas for a catcher: Even if the trade makes sense, are you better off holding your prospects (according to my Top 72 List, it would be Font, Main, and Gutierrez) for a bigger deal later on?

by Jamey Newberg on Dec 20, 2009 7:12 PM CST reply actions  

Here's the thing

Is there really that much bigger of a deal that is going to be out there than a 23 year old who immediately becomes the best hitter on your team, and is under team control for 4 more years?

And with the Rangers’ situation, you could deal Main, Gutierrez and Font in a deal like this, and still have Smoak or Perez, plus Scheppers, Beavan, Ross, Boscan, Moscoso, and a bunch of other arms to use in a bigger deal, should one come across.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Huh?

Best hitter on the team?

Fuck Mike Estabrook

by Horns130 on Dec 20, 2009 7:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Well his OPS+ of 124 last year

beats everyone on the team last year except for MY.

by Agreen07 on Dec 20, 2009 7:39 PM CST up reply actions  

then he still wouldnt be the best hitter on the team

furthermore, who do you think teams would be more afraid of on our team?

Who would most people call the best hitter?

Fuck Mike Estabrook

by Horns130 on Dec 20, 2009 8:26 PM CST up reply actions  

why does it matter what most people would say?

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 8:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Who teams are "afraid of" and what "most people" think doesn't make someone your best hitter.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 8:28 PM CST up reply actions  

fine

i realize it isnt exactly properly worded and is a bit convoluted

that said, the point is merely that butler would not be the best hitter on the team and i wouldnt even put him in the top 4 for the team unless he proved it over more time

he is certainly a good young hitter though

Fuck Mike Estabrook

by Horns130 on Dec 21, 2009 1:35 AM CST up reply actions  

The fact Guttierrez is among the three highest rated after Smoak and Perez

shows how ambiguous a minor league package can get. He’s a nice arm and still a totally unknown quantity.

If I’d read the comments in this post first, I’d a changed my vote to Definitely.

"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks

by hightowersmith on Dec 20, 2009 7:52 PM CST up reply actions  

of course,

they need to restock the farm with some high upside type prospects. Shit they should do it for just Ross and Beltre.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:30 PM CST up reply actions  

No

Trading Butler for Ross and Beltre wouldn’t be smart…other teams would trump that offer.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Nope.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Of course

He’s also more expensive and, most likely, not going to be as good the next few years.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 7:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Eww because nobody likes Nick Swisher, or eww because you don't want him?

Personally, I think Swish would fit rather well here.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:39 PM CST up reply actions  

+1

Swisher would make this team a lot better.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:40 PM CST up reply actions  

I like Swisher gritty play,

A guy I work with went to high school with him. He said he was a huge dick. Not sure how his club house presence is.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:43 PM CST up reply actions  

you have

to ignore that he’s an insufferable douche. Except for one down year he’s hit very well, and can play 1B and OF.

by BHill on Dec 20, 2009 7:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Ugh

I just threw up a little in my mouth.

Give me team chemistry and emotion over stats any day. Do you think 34,000 Ranger fans were screaming their asses off over Pudge and his .275 OBP?

by AceJC on Dec 20, 2009 9:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Swisher would be a nice get.

But if we’re getting the Yanks to include cash, we’d have to include a decent prospect.

Someone better than Max.

by nivarsity on Dec 20, 2009 10:40 PM CST up reply actions  

i dont

understand how people arent getting this. In now way is smoak more valueable to ANY organization right nowm than butler. yes, smoak could very well end up better when their careers are over, but you have noway of knowing.

by ENDLESS on Dec 20, 2009 7:40 PM CST reply actions  

Your typing is kinda iffy

But I understand your logic.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure where to reply

because the discussion is going on in a couple of different places. But if you’re looking to add a bat, I think Butler has a better career than Smoak offensively. I think Smoak will be an above-average defender at first base, but I do believe Butler will be a better hitter.

I’m not 100% sure why some people seem to be discounting Butler for his pedestrian numbers in his second season. He was 22 years old. Smoak is 23 right now and he hit .240 in AAA last year.

For what it’s worth, I say yes to the poll question. There’s tons of depth on the farm, and if the Rangers don’t have the money to go out and make a big splash on the free agency market, I think the depth would give them the ability to make a move like this for an extra bat.

by JasonCole on Dec 20, 2009 7:43 PM CST reply actions  

Thank you.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, hard to argue with that.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't want to go all Josey here

But we’d only have control of the guy for two years, right?

3 borderline top 100 prospects for two years of a DH- steep.

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Dec 20, 2009 7:43 PM CST reply actions  

Butler is under club control for the next 4 seasons.

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 7:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Ah

Thought he was a super two

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Dec 20, 2009 7:51 PM CST up reply actions  

so what is the bottom line here?

FA after 2013 season, right? That would be four more years…2010, 2011, 2012, 2013?

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 20, 2009 8:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Right

He’s arb-eligible prior to each of those four seasons, as well. If he weren’t a super 2, he’d get whatever the Royals wanted to give him for 2010.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 20, 2009 8:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Which raises the question

Can we afford him right now?

Do we get the $3 million we were going to have to pick up from the Red Sox for GritFace McVeteran back into the budget, for sure?

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Dec 20, 2009 8:09 PM CST up reply actions  

someone said 4 years above,

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:45 PM CST up reply actions  

It's unfair to call him strictly a DH.

He was pretty terrible at 1B last year using any advanced metric, but there are legitimate reasons to question how well advanced metrics evaluate 1B defense. Chris Davis was deemed to be one of the shittiest 1B in the majors last year, and I think most here would disagree with that. You also have to take into account the fact that the Royals unsurprisingly haven’t handled the management of Butler’s position well.. As a result, there’s a limited sample size to work with so who knows if he’s truly poor or if he has the potential to improve (which is hardly out of the question).

I voted tough call yes, only because it would me cringe to lose Font, Ross & Main. Butler and his fat ass in the Rangers lineup would be awesome IMO.

by LiamP on Dec 20, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Im pretty surprised more people aren't voting definitely yes

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Dec 20, 2009 7:44 PM CST reply actions  

I voted "tough call" just becase we don't know for sure exactly what prospects would be in the trade

But in the end, barring the inclusion of any of the big four…

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Is the logic similar to the McCarthy-Danks deal?

similar potential but two years more advanced in career path?

by Agreen07 on Dec 20, 2009 7:45 PM CST reply actions  

thats my beef with this trade,

for some reason I feel like it has bad written all over it. I guess I hold a higher regard for Smoak than I do Butler.

Im not saying injury wise(BMac) but more AGon

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions  

But what's your reason for holding him in higher regard?

Emotionally I do because I hear about Smoak often and Butler is completely unsexy. But if I look at logic, which is all that should matter here, it’s really hard to hold Smoak in higher regard.

by philkid3 on Dec 20, 2009 8:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Heh, I said the exact thing above

This is why I wouldn’t really want to trade one for the other.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:47 PM CST up reply actions  

It would have that BYITA aspect to it

That much is certainly true.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 20, 2009 7:48 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd be much more inclined to trade a package for Butler

as for KC’s perspective, not really sure why they would want to trade Butler for Smoak. A package makes more sense for them, so they can reload.

by Agreen07 on Dec 20, 2009 7:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, their system has some nice arms already in it

But like us, they’re rather weak on the positional side of things. They do have Eric Hosmer but he kinda struggled this year IIRC, and theres mixed opinions on Mike Moustakas.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 7:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice idea

Voted tough call but yes. And that was before I realized Schepp wasn’t eligible.

Such a move is a referendum on Chris Davis. A team with Smoak and Butler squeezes him out (not to mention Max and Moreland).

If the Royals viewed a package of three players as a reloading move, they might actually do something like this.

"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks

by hightowersmith on Dec 20, 2009 7:48 PM CST reply actions  

I voted "tough, but no" originally

but the more I think about it, the more okay I am with it.

I would offer McCarthy, Main and Moreland and see what they say. I’m not sure how far I would go beyond that.

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 20, 2009 8:01 PM CST reply actions  

Geez

Lowball much?

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 8:04 PM CST up reply actions  

LOwball?

AJM highballed the offer I think. Clarks right on or closer to what I would trade to KC.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 20, 2009 8:05 PM CST up reply actions  

It depends on how they place value

Looking at your initial offer, you included Beltre, who I think has about 30% of the trade value of Mitch Moreland, so this is a clear uptick in talent. Main is, at least according to our rankings, as or more highly thought of than Ross or Font, so let’s call that about even. McCarthy is the key. People around here have an obvious bias against him, but when he pitched last year he was pretty damn good and he’s still a young, cheap pitcher with decent potential, which a team like the Royals may actually value above someone like Ross who hasn’t pitched above short season.

But you guys are right. I made a joke lowball offer and Adam’s was right in the ballpark of “fair”.

Hilarious.

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 20, 2009 9:02 PM CST up reply actions  

the votes above

and the amount of “no’s” indicate that it was pretty fair, although probably a little soft. I actually thought of my proposed package as something of an upgrade…

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 20, 2009 9:49 PM CST up reply actions  

the important thing though

is you didn’t get your feelings hurt…

"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 20, 2009 9:55 PM CST up reply actions  

We are posters on a message board.

I don’t think we should be necessarily given THAT much credibility, even if this is a pretty intelligent site.

by philkid3 on Dec 20, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions  

And thats fine AJM,

not like we matched up anyway. Im not trading for a guy that is a DH

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Dec 21, 2009 8:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Well, you would't get Billy Butler then

Two starters who can’t stay healthy and a guy who is older than Butler yet hasn’t gotten out of AA yet and has mixed opinions on his swing isn’t enough for one of the League’s better young offensive players.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 8:10 PM CST up reply actions  

if that's how you feel

then why did people vote Main above Font and Ross in the rankings (which I argued vehemently at the time).

And why do people still act like Beltre has trade value, but McCarthy doesn’t?

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 20, 2009 9:03 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't see what bearing the CPP's have on anything

This winter’s CPP’s have sucked.

McCarthy is a mediocre glass-armed starter who missed significant chunks of each of the last three seasons. That’s why he doesn’t have any value.

Beltre on the other hand, is has those big tools that scouts love. His unrealized potential is what makes him ideal trade bait.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 9:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I still think

McCarthy has significantly more trade value than Beltre. McCarthy has shown that he can be effective at the ML level. Beltre hasn’t really done anything yet besides possess God given natural abilities.

I think that McCarthy, Moreland and Main is a better package than Ross, Font and Beltre. Are either of them enough to land Butler? Probably not. I definitely wish we still had a cache of sexy young catchers because that could really enhance this package.

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 20, 2009 9:48 PM CST up reply actions  

"I still think McCarthy has significantly more trade value than Beltre."

I wish I could poll every significant figure in baseball’s front offices to see if they agree with that, because I seriously doubt that’s true.

Whether or not you think McCarthy will amount to more in the Majors, I’ll bet you teams would take a young, toolsy outfielder with poor plate discipline over a pitcher on the wrong side of 25 who cannot stay healthy and isn’t that good even when he is. Neither may be much of a quanitity right now, but one is known to be bad and one is known to be only likely bad. Guarantee FOs prefer the latter around nine times out of ten (excusing specific needs).

by philkid3 on Dec 20, 2009 10:51 PM CST up reply actions  

i, too, would like to see that poll...

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 20, 2009 11:54 PM CST up reply actions  

3M is already taken

2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009

by boomer1 on Dec 20, 2009 8:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I would trade Font, Beltre, and Moreland

I voted "tough, but yes. However, you can count me in as “definitely yes”

Butler raised his ISO from 08 to 09 by .67 (.191) and his OPS by .129 (.853).

I think tricer mentioned he’s under team control until he’s 27, right? That would be a very valuable piece to what we’re trying to do.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Dec 20, 2009 8:07 PM CST reply actions  

OT

Dont feel like doing a fanpost. Durrett is reporting we are close to signing Darren Oliver

"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 20, 2009 8:14 PM CST reply actions  

Am I the only one thinking the following:

WHY THE FUCK ARE WE WASTING MONEY ON DARREN FUCKING OLIVER

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 8:15 PM CST up reply actions  

He's got to be in his forties now right?

Makes no sense

We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.

by sprite on Dec 20, 2009 8:18 PM CST up reply actions  

but he brings veteran leadership!!

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Dec 20, 2009 8:19 PM CST up reply actions  

veteranness!!!!!

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Dec 20, 2009 8:20 PM CST up reply actions  

I am going to be really fucking mad if we don't sign Glaus or Vlad because we pissed away money on Darren Oliver.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 8:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Gagreed.

We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.

by sprite on Dec 20, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions  

He was pretty good last couple of years

but I can’t imagine he will come cheap, maybe something around $3 million a year

by Telegraph on Dec 20, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Eww.

I am curious to see how much money he gets.

"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron

by coolaid on Dec 20, 2009 8:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure what the fuck JD is doing since the Harden deal

There are currently more bullpen options available on the market than there are ML jobs for them. Why rush to spend what little money he has to fill a non-essential role?

Ranger fans say "NO! NO!" to Go Go.
Keep Reinsdorf's chub from ruining my club.

by tricer on Dec 20, 2009 8:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Because this team is suddenly obsessed with veteranocity for no clear-cut reason.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 8:30 PM CST up reply actions  

You don't know that...

put your pitchfork away. The Lowell deal was clearly pretty picked over by the team, it took them like 2 weeks to make a decision, and they ultimately decided against it. The made the right call.

If the front office was suddenly obsessed with “veteranocity” they would have OK’d the deal and let Lowell rehab his surgery in Arlington.

by ghostofErikThompson on Dec 20, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Darren Oliver...

for as much as Ranger fans dislike him from his second tenure here, he’s been a pretty decent pitcher in relief the last couple of years.

I’m interested in seeing the money, however.

by ghostofErikThompson on Dec 20, 2009 9:19 PM CST up reply actions  

I know this is mostly for fun

but why in the world would the Royals want to trade Butler anyway?

"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Dec 20, 2009 8:15 PM CST reply actions  

I guess it'd make sense for a boatload of impact talent

But they’d be dumb to do the trades we’re discussing.

Of course they are the Royals.

by nivarsity on Dec 20, 2009 10:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I voted yes

but really I think if you’re going to make a trade like that why not just go the extra mile and go after Adrian Gonzales?

by MikeEl on Dec 20, 2009 8:42 PM CST reply actions  

It will cost less in all aspects...

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Dec 20, 2009 8:43 PM CST up reply actions  

But if the goal is to compete in '10

don’t you want to go with the best player you can get?

by MikeEl on Dec 20, 2009 8:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Because A-Gon is older and much much more expensive?

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 8:51 PM CST up reply actions  

So you think 4.75mill in '10 and 5.5mill in 11

is too much to pay for AGon’s production? He’s older, but he’s also more established and you know he’s going to be a consistently strong producer offensively and defensively. Butler only just had a good year after 2 uninspiring ones. There’s more risk that he will regress, and he holds no value defensively.

by MikeEl on Dec 20, 2009 8:58 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm talking in terms of prospects.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 9:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Gonzalez will cost a motherload

We’d have to include one of Perez/Feliz/Smoak/Holland for sure. Hell, maybe two. It’d take 4 prospects, at least one elite.

And AGon is an FA in two years, as opposed to four.

by nivarsity on Dec 20, 2009 10:44 PM CST up reply actions  

I voted "close but no", based on an assumption they'd take Main over Beltre.

Font, Ross and Beltre I think I’d have to do. Tough as shit, though.

I’d try to interest them in some of our major league ready talent.

I thought about suggesting building something around Kinsler + one of our young starters, but Callaspo was surprisingly good last year and he’s cheaper than Kinz.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

"You like Castlevania, don't you?" -Psycho Mantis.

by thedirkatron on Dec 20, 2009 8:56 PM CST reply actions  

You would do Kinsler+ for Butler?

I don’t think I would.

We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.

by sprite on Dec 20, 2009 8:58 PM CST up reply actions  

We don't have anyone to replace Kinsler at 2nd base.

"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron

by coolaid on Dec 20, 2009 9:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Voted the same...

would hate to give up Main or Font right now.

The more I think about it though, the more I go back and forth on it. The guy is under team control for awhile. If you do that deal then either CD or Smoak needs to be dealt too. Very tough call.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Dec 20, 2009 11:04 PM CST up reply actions  

KC is quitely building a contender

If you can offer them something to help them get to the playoffs in two years for Butler then I say do it.

by kingpaddy on Dec 20, 2009 9:06 PM CST reply actions  

They've been "quietly building a contender" for quite a while now.

I’m pretty sure that franchise isn’t going anywhere fast.

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Dec 20, 2009 9:11 PM CST up reply actions  

You just don't understand The Process like Dayton Moore does.

I failed my LSB ethics test.

"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle

by LSJ on Dec 20, 2009 9:24 PM CST up reply actions  

We aren't going to offer them a new GM, coaching staff, and medical staff

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Dec 20, 2009 9:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Close but no

On the pipe dream that we’ll have money after 2010 and we can buy a bat instead of spend prospects on one.

by cstorm15 on Dec 20, 2009 9:31 PM CST reply actions  

We need that bat now.....

"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel

by jdh90 on Dec 20, 2009 9:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Absolutely, in a heart beat

You have to make the deal. I cannot imagine why Kansas City would deal a 23 year old who posted an .853 OPS last season for a handful of B- type prospects. He was a

I think a more realistic possibility would be something like Chris Davis + for Billy Butler. I don’t see any reason why we should expect Butler to regress significantly next season. His .335 BABIP is not that far off his career and minor league BABIP.

He might not be a plus defensive player, but as a DH and occasional first baseman, he is pretty damn valuable. And I think an offer of Davis + would be more reasonable. Kansas City might view Davis as a higher ceiling player which is a better fit for a rebuilding team.

I wouldn’t mind dealing something like Davis + (maybe McCarthy included?) for Butler and signing Garko to fill in at 1B until Smoak is ready.

by Stephen Rushin on Dec 20, 2009 11:31 PM CST reply actions  

Here is a great write up about Butler from Sickels

Sickels Analysis

Basically, Butler is a high upside hitter. Here is Sickel’s prediction on his upside:

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that, barring a catastrophic injury of some sort, Butler will be an excellent major league hitter. But the exact shape of that excellence is still a question. He has the long-term ability to hit .340-.350 eventually. He could be a 30+ homer guy if he concentrates more on power at the expense of batting average. With a maximal outcome, he could do BOTH at some point.

The sky is the limit here, and it will be fun to see what happens.

So could you imagine if the Rangers traded a 23 year old coming off a .853 OPS season (with a .345 BA/30 HR/.900 OPS upside) for three B- type prospects? That would be insane. Plus, he is under team control for 4 more seasons. The Royals would rightfully ask for Davis+ or Smoak.

by Stephen Rushin on Dec 20, 2009 11:44 PM CST reply actions  

hmmm

well when you put it that way…

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 20, 2009 11:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Well

A package of say Ross, Font, and Kiker is probably about on par with what was suggested. Based on Sickels rankings last year, I think it is fair to say that all of those guys would be somewhere around B- type prospects. I could potentially see Font or Ross getting a B.

But nonetheless, the quality of our prospects drop off significantly after Perez/Feliz/Scheppers. It seems like Kiker, Ross, Font, Beltre, Main, Moscoso, Ramirez, Gutierrez, etc are fairly interchangeable. They are good but not great prospects.

And ultimately, I think people here are undervaluing Butler’s ceiling. He is not some fringy hitter who had an unpredictably good year in 2009. As was mentioned earlier, he was a pretty highly touted prospect. Sickels seemed very bullish on his long-term potential. Smoak for Butler would be pretty reasonable.

I guess this topic has already been addressed, but I really think the Sickels article adds more evidence of Butler’s upside.

by Stephen Rushin on Dec 21, 2009 12:44 AM CST up reply actions  

my take...

you only give up A type prospects for proven studs or TORPs

Fuck Mike Estabrook

by Horns130 on Dec 21, 2009 1:46 AM CST up reply actions  

x
You are almost asking KC to trade their Smoak+. Put the shoe on the other foot and see how it fits.

Yep.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.

by Rodney on Dec 21, 2009 1:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Moore would have to be really stupid to trade Butler for anything less than a ML impact player.

Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.

by rooster on Dec 21, 2009 12:02 AM CST reply actions  

Talk to anybody connected close

to The Show and they will tell you the Billy Butler is a hitting savant but also one of the dumbest players to ever step on a field in the history of the game.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"

"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09

by Josey Wales on Dec 21, 2009 8:46 AM CST up reply actions  

I guess we could have asked

if anyone here would trade Feliz for Butler. Straight up.

Just two GMs putting their ball sacks on the table.

What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.

by clark on Dec 21, 2009 11:07 AM CST reply actions  

Butler isn't that good. Someone's ball sack would look insignificant in that situation.

Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.

by rooster on Dec 21, 2009 5:12 PM CST up reply actions  

I would trade Davis

Davis hasn’t shown he can hit a MLB fastball constistently. So if you trade Smoak you are putting all your 1B eggs in one basket. Defense isn’t enough at first. Trade Davis and CJ for Butler and some latino throw in. Pick up a one year 1B and roll until Smoak is ready.

If you ever trade Smoak it needs to be for more than Butler. Regardless of how good he ends up Smoaks hype-driven value is better than a Butler return.

"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve

by Spadedsnake on Dec 21, 2009 11:49 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

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